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With a two week ceasefire underway, I’m bringing back War Strategy Expert Robert Pape to help us understand what could happen next… I had Robert on the show last month, and over 7 million people watched that conversation. But as the situation has evolved, I felt there was more... we needed to understand. For those who don’t know him, Robert is a political scientist who has spent decades studying how wars actually unfold, advising governments and building models to understand what drives escalation and how conflicts evolve over time. In our last conversation, he explained why bombing campaigns don’t end wars and why they often pull countries deeper into them. Now, he’s looking at the current situation, and what becomes clear very quickly is this: What’s being described as a “ceasefire” hasn’t actually resolved anything. The underlying incentives, the power dynamics, and the conditions that led to escalation are all still in place.show more

Steven Bartlett

423,449 subscribers

29,216 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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25 Kommentare

Profilbild von Steven Bartlett

Steven Bartlettvor 5 Monaten

You can watch this full conversation here:

Profilbild von Dane Giraud ✡️

Dane Giraud ✡️vor 5 Monaten

I'm not convinced by Pape. The idea Iran is stronger now is a nonsense. They have lost much of their strategic depth and are relying on a tactic that will drive themselves broke. They can't properly rearm. They can't ever really rebuild.

Profilbild von sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉

sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉vor 5 Monaten

Truth. #FuckIvanka

Profilbild von سیروس پارسا

سیروس پارساvor 5 Monaten

My take on the subject

Profilbild von NN

NNvor 5 Monaten

you need to interview @sachs_jeffery and @MearsheimerJ

Profilbild von David Eyler

David Eylervor 5 Monaten

This is a spectacular episode.

Profilbild von Ⓐnalog_$upremo

Ⓐnalog_$upremovor 5 Monaten

You are posting his today? Because this has not aged well at all.

Profilbild von Philip Wheeler (Actual)

Philip Wheeler (Actual)vor 5 Monaten

@ProfSteveKeen Robert Pape is out of the loop. Out of novel ideas. Out of his mind.

Profilbild von Aydin Habibi

Aydin Habibivor 5 Monaten

Iranian here. Watched ep; guest forgot key factor: ~80% Iranians oppose Islamic Regime. Gov lost morality long ago, esp after Jan mass murder (~40k protesters). Aligns w/ major regime change rally led by CP Reza Pahlavi.

Profilbild von DiamondGazelle

DiamondGazellevor 5 Monaten

Unbelievably disingenuous to suggest Israel did anything without planning with the USA ahead of time. Israel did absolutely nothing without the full knowledge and complete agreement of the USA. This man pushing the ‘they started it’ theory shows ignorance. Israel did not ‘use’ the USA. If anything, the reverse is true. But hey, why kill a good story….

Profilbild von Gene Zaino

Gene Zainovor 5 Monaten

Are you going to also invite on other guets who have a an alternate perspective so listeners can hear both sides of the issues in this conflict and what would happen if it was left for the future generations to deal with?

Profilbild von Mr. Walter

Mr. Waltervor 5 Monaten

This is absolute drivel. Bartlett doesn’t have the guts to unlock comments on Spotify. He panders to weak kneed sycophants for Iran. What President Trump is doing is a righteous good for the world.

Profilbild von Mr. Grey

Mr. Greyvor 5 Monaten

@ProfSteveKeen No don’t this guy is mostly incompetent

Profilbild von Danny Cheeko

Danny Cheekovor 5 Monaten

Is this the dumbass who believes Iran should have nukes ?

Profilbild von Jes B

Jes Bvor 5 Monaten

Israel doesn’t want America to negotiate with Iran. Midway through the last two negotiations Israel attacked Iran. America needs to cut them off or it will be engaged in a forever war leading to global recession. Americans face unprecedented cost of living crisis.

Profilbild von sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉

sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉vor 5 Monaten

.

Profilbild von Sreedevi S

Sreedevi Svor 5 Monaten

❤❤

Profilbild von Fadh-lulahi Yusoof

Fadh-lulahi Yusoofvor 5 Monaten

Trump just emboldened Iran with his dumb moves I am not complaining though

Profilbild von Far-San

Far-Sanvor 5 Monaten

US can become great again if only they get rid of the Islamic regime in Iran. If Americans care about the future of their country and want to not to lose the economic and political conflicts to Russia and China, they must know they need to win this war by changing the regime

Profilbild von sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉

sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉vor 5 Monaten

#Ivanka

Profilbild von Greg Styan

Greg Styanvor 5 Monaten

A pause in conflict isn’t peace it’s just time for both sides to prepare what comes next.

Profilbild von FaraVeritas

FaraVeritasvor 5 Monaten

Care to explain?

Profilbild von Alex

Alexvor 5 Monaten

That was a great truthful comment which is right. Good luck with your show. Loved it

Profilbild von PHANTOM

PHANTOMvor 5 Monaten

Trump came up with a dumb blockade

Profilbild von sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉

sandra 🕊️🇵🇸🍉vor 5 Monaten

.

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ROBERT ASKED FOR CLARITY… AND BRANDON GAVE HIM AN ANSWER HE COULDN'T ARGUE WITH. The conversation starts with Robert trying to figure out where Brandon's head is before the black-tie event. They're talking about their relationship, the connection between them, and what this whole situation actually means. Then the conversation gets close enough that talking isn't really doing the job anymore. They kiss. And suddenly you understand why Robert's interaction with Brandon feels different from some of the other relationships we've seen on the show. There's an ease between them. Robert doesn't look like he's trying to manufacture a romantic moment for the cameras. Brandon doesn't either. It feels like two people who have already crossed that emotional line and are finally letting the moment happen. That's the detail I keep coming back to. The kiss isn't what creates the chemistry. The chemistry is already there before they kiss. The kiss just makes it impossible to pretend it isn't.

ROBERT ASKED FOR CLARITY… AND BRANDON GAVE HIM AN ANSWER HE COULDN'T ARGUE WITH. The conversation starts with Robert trying to figure out where Brandon's head is before the black-tie event. They're talking about their relationship, the connection between them, and what this whole situation actually means. Then the conversation gets close enough that talking isn't really doing the job anymore. They kiss. And suddenly you understand why Robert's interaction with Brandon feels different from some of the other relationships we've seen on the show. There's an ease between them. Robert doesn't look like he's trying to manufacture a romantic moment for the cameras. Brandon doesn't either. It feels like two people who have already crossed that emotional line and are finally letting the moment happen. That's the detail I keep coming back to. The kiss isn't what creates the chemistry. The chemistry is already there before they kiss. The kiss just makes it impossible to pretend it isn't.

Commentary - MovieCentral⁠

38,791 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

Today is the launch day for my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. I wrote this book because I believe now is a critical time when it comes to the global debt burden. I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 50 years as a global macro investor finding the indicators of debt problems, and I want to pass along what I’ve learned so that policymakers and individuals can try to deal with our current situation well. Through studying history, I’ve come to realize that everything happens due to cause-effect relationships that can be studied and understood. So reality works like a perpetual motion machine that began an eternity ago and will take us into the future. That perspective has driven my approach to life which has led to whatever success I have had. And I hope it will help others better understand how we got where we are, and what we need to do next to avoid bad outcomes for everyone. Our current debt situation has implications for almost all markets and economies. So if you’re interested in learning more, I hope you’ll give it a read — and I’m excited to continue exchanging ideas about this with you on social media. You can find a link to order the book in the comments below.And as always, I welcome your thoughts. #principles #debt #Economics #History

Today is the launch day for my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. I wrote this book because I believe now is a critical time when it comes to the global debt burden. I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 50 years as a global macro investor finding the indicators of debt problems, and I want to pass along what I’ve learned so that policymakers and individuals can try to deal with our current situation well. Through studying history, I’ve come to realize that everything happens due to cause-effect relationships that can be studied and understood. So reality works like a perpetual motion machine that began an eternity ago and will take us into the future. That perspective has driven my approach to life which has led to whatever success I have had. And I hope it will help others better understand how we got where we are, and what we need to do next to avoid bad outcomes for everyone. Our current debt situation has implications for almost all markets and economies. So if you’re interested in learning more, I hope you’ll give it a read — and I’m excited to continue exchanging ideas about this with you on social media. You can find a link to order the book in the comments below.And as always, I welcome your thoughts. #principles #debt #Economics #History

Ray Dalio

470,207 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Atiku can win this election, and I’m very confident about it. From what I’m seeing in the North, Zamfara may be the only state Atiku could struggle to share with the APC. But what I’m seeing in the North right now is only fighting that can make Tinubu win because people are not happy with what is happening. As for Peter Obi, I honestly don’t see him winning the election based on the current political structure. Any serious politician who looks at the numbers and the structure on ground will understand that the strongest Northern challenger is Kwankwaso, and even he is heavily dependent on Kano. Before now, we could talk about Kano, Katsina and Jigawa as strong Kwankwaso northern bases. But the political landscape has changed. Many of the people and structures from these areas are now with the ADC. When the NDC emerged, they didn’t move there they remained with the ADC. That is why, looking at the structure on ground, I believe Atiku has a realistic path to victory in 2027. NDC Senator Rufai Hanga

Atiku can win this election, and I’m very confident about it. From what I’m seeing in the North, Zamfara may be the only state Atiku could struggle to share with the APC. But what I’m seeing in the North right now is only fighting that can make Tinubu win because people are not happy with what is happening. As for Peter Obi, I honestly don’t see him winning the election based on the current political structure. Any serious politician who looks at the numbers and the structure on ground will understand that the strongest Northern challenger is Kwankwaso, and even he is heavily dependent on Kano. Before now, we could talk about Kano, Katsina and Jigawa as strong Kwankwaso northern bases. But the political landscape has changed. Many of the people and structures from these areas are now with the ADC. When the NDC emerged, they didn’t move there they remained with the ADC. That is why, looking at the structure on ground, I believe Atiku has a realistic path to victory in 2027. NDC Senator Rufai Hanga

Sani Suleman Isah

33,633 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The Navy SEAL who killed Osama bin Laden reveals what happened inside the room Adam Carolla: So, you got him, now you’re continually going up the stairs. And you were in what place in this line? Robert O’Neill: When we got to the second story, it split off to the left and right. The guy that had been up front, he’d already taken a shot up the third set and now he’s pointing up through a curtain. I recognize as the last man, he needs a two-man. So, I went up to him as a two-man, he starts pimping me with his body language. Like what he’s saying is, “There’s the suicide bombers. We can beat them, but the shitty news is we have to fucking go right now.” I remember looking down, and this is… this is not bravery right now. I’m tired of thinking about it. Get it over with. I squeezed him, we went up. We went through the curtain and he saw the two suicide bombers that he thought were there, and he jumped on them. Adam Carolla: How does he jump on them? Robert O’Neill: He just tackles them and grabs them. Admiral McRaven asked him, “You jumped on suicide bombers. Why would you do that?” He said, “Well, they want the guy behind me to get hurt.” Adam Carolla: Wow. Robert O’Neill: Because he did that, I turned to the right… And there’s Osama bin Laden standing there, his wife’s in front of him. They can put the leads from a vest down their robes onto their wrist, and all they got to do is touch them. Adam Carolla: Put their hands together. Robert O’Neill: And guess what? We’re all fucking dead. I see him, he’s maneuvering. Adam Carolla: What is he seeing? Robert O’Neill: Nothing. He knows there’s people there. The way you deal with suicide bombers is you shoot him in the face. So, I caught him. I shot him in the face twice and then the third time on the floor. Adam Carolla: But that’s bin Laden. Robert O’Neill: Yes. Adam Carolla: Now, you know it’s bin Laden. Robert O’Neill: Yes. Adam Carolla: Are the instructions to kill Bin Laden? Are the instructions to capture Bin Laden? Robert O’Neill: Knowing SEAL Team 6, we’re going to kill him. Right. That’s it. We’re going to fucking kill him.

The Navy SEAL who killed Osama bin Laden reveals what happened inside the room Adam Carolla: So, you got him, now you’re continually going up the stairs. And you were in what place in this line? Robert O’Neill: When we got to the second story, it split off to the left and right. The guy that had been up front, he’d already taken a shot up the third set and now he’s pointing up through a curtain. I recognize as the last man, he needs a two-man. So, I went up to him as a two-man, he starts pimping me with his body language. Like what he’s saying is, “There’s the suicide bombers. We can beat them, but the shitty news is we have to fucking go right now.” I remember looking down, and this is… this is not bravery right now. I’m tired of thinking about it. Get it over with. I squeezed him, we went up. We went through the curtain and he saw the two suicide bombers that he thought were there, and he jumped on them. Adam Carolla: How does he jump on them? Robert O’Neill: He just tackles them and grabs them. Admiral McRaven asked him, “You jumped on suicide bombers. Why would you do that?” He said, “Well, they want the guy behind me to get hurt.” Adam Carolla: Wow. Robert O’Neill: Because he did that, I turned to the right… And there’s Osama bin Laden standing there, his wife’s in front of him. They can put the leads from a vest down their robes onto their wrist, and all they got to do is touch them. Adam Carolla: Put their hands together. Robert O’Neill: And guess what? We’re all fucking dead. I see him, he’s maneuvering. Adam Carolla: What is he seeing? Robert O’Neill: Nothing. He knows there’s people there. The way you deal with suicide bombers is you shoot him in the face. So, I caught him. I shot him in the face twice and then the third time on the floor. Adam Carolla: But that’s bin Laden. Robert O’Neill: Yes. Adam Carolla: Now, you know it’s bin Laden. Robert O’Neill: Yes. Adam Carolla: Are the instructions to kill Bin Laden? Are the instructions to capture Bin Laden? Robert O’Neill: Knowing SEAL Team 6, we’re going to kill him. Right. That’s it. We’re going to fucking kill him.

‏ً

607,235 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The NDC sneaked into power on the back of lies and lofty promises without any plan. Our current reality is that, they are clueless and are at a complete loss as to how to deal with the serious issues confronting our nation and that explains why they are simply majoring in the minors to buy time. We are in a truly difficult situation as a country.

The NDC sneaked into power on the back of lies and lofty promises without any plan. Our current reality is that, they are clueless and are at a complete loss as to how to deal with the serious issues confronting our nation and that explains why they are simply majoring in the minors to buy time. We are in a truly difficult situation as a country.

Dennis Edward Aboagye

190,413 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Ceasefire now, people say. But what does that actually mean? So ceasefire is what we've had on October 6th and what we all want, obviously. But President Biden said it best. Ceasefire and a hostage deal, he said, is at the hands of Hamas. President Biden said that Israel put down a rational offer because Israel is a rational country. The problem is that Hamas is not a rational actor. It is a genocidal Jihadi terrorist organization that doesn't care about the lives of Palestinians. And people in the West have been yelling ceasefire now at the wrong side of this war. Hamas has rejected countless ceasefires. Hamas and Iran are not trying to build a better life for the Palestinian people. You have to understand what Hamas and Iran are doing right now is they're actively trying to inflame the entire Middle East right before the holy month of Ramadan, which as President Biden said is going to be very, very dangerous. And this is exactly what they are after. There is currently a multi-front war going on in Israel in which Israel is being attacked by Jihadi terrorists from all sides, all prompted, pushed, and sponsored by Iran. Hamas, according to what was published, said that they have Israel exactly where they want her. That means the international pressure is on Israel to stop the war so that Hamas can remain in power in Gaza. So if you're calling at Israel to ceasefire, you're doing the bidding of Hamas. Hamas does not want to ceasefire. They're going to do whatever it takes in order to maintain power, including hiding in the elaborated tunnel system that they build instead of building a Palestinian state and remain in power at the cost of Israeli children and Palestinian children. It's time to dehamasify Gaza. And next time you demand a ceasefire, just make sure you aim it at the right direction. As President Biden said, this is at the hands of Hamas.

Ceasefire now, people say. But what does that actually mean? So ceasefire is what we've had on October 6th and what we all want, obviously. But President Biden said it best. Ceasefire and a hostage deal, he said, is at the hands of Hamas. President Biden said that Israel put down a rational offer because Israel is a rational country. The problem is that Hamas is not a rational actor. It is a genocidal Jihadi terrorist organization that doesn't care about the lives of Palestinians. And people in the West have been yelling ceasefire now at the wrong side of this war. Hamas has rejected countless ceasefires. Hamas and Iran are not trying to build a better life for the Palestinian people. You have to understand what Hamas and Iran are doing right now is they're actively trying to inflame the entire Middle East right before the holy month of Ramadan, which as President Biden said is going to be very, very dangerous. And this is exactly what they are after. There is currently a multi-front war going on in Israel in which Israel is being attacked by Jihadi terrorists from all sides, all prompted, pushed, and sponsored by Iran. Hamas, according to what was published, said that they have Israel exactly where they want her. That means the international pressure is on Israel to stop the war so that Hamas can remain in power in Gaza. So if you're calling at Israel to ceasefire, you're doing the bidding of Hamas. Hamas does not want to ceasefire. They're going to do whatever it takes in order to maintain power, including hiding in the elaborated tunnel system that they build instead of building a Palestinian state and remain in power at the cost of Israeli children and Palestinian children. It's time to dehamasify Gaza. And next time you demand a ceasefire, just make sure you aim it at the right direction. As President Biden said, this is at the hands of Hamas.

Noa Tishby

127,134 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

BRADLEY THAYER: We're in a revolutionary time, that we really are facing a situation where the left is taking us down the path to communism, which is totalitarian, and it's gonna end in blood and tears inevitably, versus a MAGA right, which has the opportunity to save the country. To save the United States as a Constitutional Republic, and those are the stakes. This is the situation that we face today. Those are the two paths that Americans confront. We need to understand the enemy. We have to understand the nature of communism, how it operates, how it has infiltrated our ideas, industry - how it's infiltrated our politics, media, our entertainment industry, etc - to understand the nature of the enemy. bradley thayer

BRADLEY THAYER: We're in a revolutionary time, that we really are facing a situation where the left is taking us down the path to communism, which is totalitarian, and it's gonna end in blood and tears inevitably, versus a MAGA right, which has the opportunity to save the country. To save the United States as a Constitutional Republic, and those are the stakes. This is the situation that we face today. Those are the two paths that Americans confront. We need to understand the enemy. We have to understand the nature of communism, how it operates, how it has infiltrated our ideas, industry - how it's infiltrated our politics, media, our entertainment industry, etc - to understand the nature of the enemy. bradley thayer

Bannon’s WarRoom

15,547 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen