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With the UAE exit, OPEC has officially lost most influence it still had over global oil markets... Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ #opec #crudeoil #geopolitics

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Peter Zeihan

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BANNON: UAE dropping out of OPEC on a moment’s notice shows something deeper. This isn’t just a swap line. They don’t leave unless they think they’ve got a new partner. I think they’re in deep financial trouble. BOLLING: I think you’re right. They’re all sucking wind right now, living off fat oil and propping prices through a cartel. Question is, is this temporary or do they jump back in? OPEC used to control 50% of the world’s oil. The U.S. broke that dependence, but they still have sway in Europe and Asia, and it still hits our markets.
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BANNON: UAE dropping out of OPEC on a moment’s notice shows something deeper. This isn’t just a swap line. They don’t leave unless they think they’ve got a new partner. I think they’re in deep financial trouble. BOLLING: I think you’re right. They’re all sucking wind right now, living off fat oil and propping prices through a cartel. Question is, is this temporary or do they jump back in? OPEC used to control 50% of the world’s oil. The U.S. broke that dependence, but they still have sway in Europe and Asia, and it still hits our markets.

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🇺🇸🇦🇪 Every American president for 50 years has complained about OPEC. Now, the cartel is starting to fall apart. But the impact on the U.S. is far more complicated than Washington is letting on. The UAE's exit weakens OPEC's ability to coordinate production cuts, and once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the UAE could add over a million barrels per day to global supply. That sounds like a win for American consumers at the pump, and it is. But the U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer, accounting for 14% of global oil exports with Hormuz closed… Meaning their energy companies have been printing money of late, and a meaningful price drop hits their margins hard. There is also a structural argument that gets overlooked: OPEC, for all its faults, has historically acted as a stabilizing force, stepping in to manage wild price swings in either direction. A fragmented OPEC with rampant cheating and no coordination creates volatility, and volatility makes long-term investment in energy infrastructure nearly impossible. So the U.S. gets cheaper gas, weaker shale profits, less market stability, and a shifting global oil order with no clear replacement for the coordination mechanism that just started breaking apart. The knife Jimmy Carter once said OPEC held at America's neck is dulling, yet the fallout from this fractured alliance may come with its own set of problems. Source: The Economist
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🇺🇸🇦🇪 Every American president for 50 years has complained about OPEC. Now, the cartel is starting to fall apart. But the impact on the U.S. is far more complicated than Washington is letting on. The UAE's exit weakens OPEC's ability to coordinate production cuts, and once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the UAE could add over a million barrels per day to global supply. That sounds like a win for American consumers at the pump, and it is. But the U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer, accounting for 14% of global oil exports with Hormuz closed… Meaning their energy companies have been printing money of late, and a meaningful price drop hits their margins hard. There is also a structural argument that gets overlooked: OPEC, for all its faults, has historically acted as a stabilizing force, stepping in to manage wild price swings in either direction. A fragmented OPEC with rampant cheating and no coordination creates volatility, and volatility makes long-term investment in energy infrastructure nearly impossible. So the U.S. gets cheaper gas, weaker shale profits, less market stability, and a shifting global oil order with no clear replacement for the coordination mechanism that just started breaking apart. The knife Jimmy Carter once said OPEC held at America's neck is dulling, yet the fallout from this fractured alliance may come with its own set of problems. Source: The Economist

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