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Yesterday, steve jang shared his thoughts on CNBC regarding AI’s future roadmap around memory, robotics, agents, and open weights models. The hot topic of the morning: SK hynix reported record Q2 results, then fell more than 9%. The gap between the print and the reaction raises a larger question:...

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Kindred Ventures

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1,737,317 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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Martin Ronfort1 month ago

@stevejang @CNBC @SKhynix Open weights commoditizes models, which makes infrastructure the real race. SK Hynix's record quarter signals the shift. Market's just not pricing it in yet.

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@alexdolbun1 month ago

@stevejang @CNBC @SKhynix 🔥

이진혁 LEE JIN HYEOK's profile picture
이진혁 LEE JIN HYEOK1 month ago

@stevejang @CNBC @SKhynix 삼전닉스 가주아

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Jensen Huang just made a statement that every investor in AI infrastructure needs to hear (Save this). He said that the AI buildout is accelerating, the second half of this year is going to be much larger than the first half, and next year is going to be very, very large. Micron is the best positioned to win from this because every Nvidia GPU requires High Bandwidth Memory stacked directly on the chip to feed it data fast enough to keep up. There is no AI compute without memory, and right now there is simply not enough memory to go around. Micron's entire HBM supply for 2026 is already completely sold out under multi-year agreements before the year even started. Micron's own management has acknowledged they can only satisfy 50 to 65 percent of demand from some of their most important customers. That is not a problem that gets fixed quickly, because new fabs take years to build. Micron's Idaho expansion does not come online until mid-2026, a second Idaho facility is not expected until 2028, and a new New York fab is looking at 2030. The demand Jensen just described is arriving right now, and the supply to meet it is years away. The financial results already reflect this dynamic. Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $23.86 billion, nearly triple what it was a year earlier beating consensus by roughly $3.8 billion. The HBM market alone is expected to grow from $35 billion today to $100 billion by 2028, and Micron has been consistently ahead of that forecast. Jensen just told the world the second half of this year and all of next year are going to be larger than anything that came before. Micron is the company that supplies the memory those GPUs need to run, and it cannot build supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full deep dive on Micron, the HBM supply thesis and our AI trade thesis! Link below!
1:28

Jensen Huang just made a statement that every investor in AI infrastructure needs to hear (Save this). He said that the AI buildout is accelerating, the second half of this year is going to be much larger than the first half, and next year is going to be very, very large. Micron is the best positioned to win from this because every Nvidia GPU requires High Bandwidth Memory stacked directly on the chip to feed it data fast enough to keep up. There is no AI compute without memory, and right now there is simply not enough memory to go around. Micron's entire HBM supply for 2026 is already completely sold out under multi-year agreements before the year even started. Micron's own management has acknowledged they can only satisfy 50 to 65 percent of demand from some of their most important customers. That is not a problem that gets fixed quickly, because new fabs take years to build. Micron's Idaho expansion does not come online until mid-2026, a second Idaho facility is not expected until 2028, and a new New York fab is looking at 2030. The demand Jensen just described is arriving right now, and the supply to meet it is years away. The financial results already reflect this dynamic. Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $23.86 billion, nearly triple what it was a year earlier beating consensus by roughly $3.8 billion. The HBM market alone is expected to grow from $35 billion today to $100 billion by 2028, and Micron has been consistently ahead of that forecast. Jensen just told the world the second half of this year and all of next year are going to be larger than anything that came before. Micron is the company that supplies the memory those GPUs need to run, and it cannot build supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full deep dive on Micron, the HBM supply thesis and our AI trade thesis! Link below!

Milk Road AI

77,554 views • 3 months ago

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!
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Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!

Milk Road AI

260,701 views • 3 months ago

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Gavin Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. This is exactly why we’re still tracking memory so closely at Milk Road. HBM is becoming less of a commodity and more of a critical custom component for AI, and we think that changes how this cycle should be valued. If you want to see what we’re actually buying and trading around this theme, come join us for just $1 using the link:
0:42

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Gavin Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. This is exactly why we’re still tracking memory so closely at Milk Road. HBM is becoming less of a commodity and more of a critical custom component for AI, and we think that changes how this cycle should be valued. If you want to see what we’re actually buying and trading around this theme, come join us for just $1 using the link:

Milk Road AI

30,763 views • 1 month ago

New short course: LLMs as Operating Systems: Agent Memory, created with Letta, and taught by its founders Charles Packer and Sarah Wooders. An LLM's input context window has limited space. Using a longer input context also costs more and results in slower processing. So, managing what's stored in this context window is important. In the innovative paper MemGPT: Towards LLMs as Operating Systems, its authors (which include the instructors) proposed using an LLM agent to manage this context window. Their system uses a large persistent memory that stores everything that could be included in the input context, and an agent decides what is actually included. Take the example of building a chatbot that needs to remember what's been said earlier in a conversation (perhaps over many days of interaction with a user). As the conversation's length grows, the memory management agent will move information from the input context to a persistent searchable database; summarize information to keep relevant facts in the input context; and restore relevant conversation elements from further back in time. This allows a chatbot to keep what's currently most relevant in its input context memory to generate the next response. When I read the original MemGPT paper, I thought it was an innovative technique for handling memory for LLMs. The open-source Letta framework, which we'll use in this course, makes MemGPT easy to implement. It adds memory to your LLM agents and gives them transparent long-term memory. In detail, you’ll learn: - How to build an agent that can edit its own limited input context memory, using tools and multi-step reasoning - What is a memory hierarchy (an idea from computer operating systems, which use a cache to speed up memory access), and how these ideas apply to managing the LLM input context (where the input context window is a "cache" storing the most relevant information; and an agent decides what to move in and out of this to/from a larger persistent storage system) - How to implement multi-agent collaboration by letting different agents share blocks of memory This course will give you a sophisticated understanding of memory management for LLMs, which is important for chatbots having long conversations, and for complex agentic workflows. Please sign up here!
2:57

New short course: LLMs as Operating Systems: Agent Memory, created with Letta, and taught by its founders Charles Packer and Sarah Wooders. An LLM's input context window has limited space. Using a longer input context also costs more and results in slower processing. So, managing what's stored in this context window is important. In the innovative paper MemGPT: Towards LLMs as Operating Systems, its authors (which include the instructors) proposed using an LLM agent to manage this context window. Their system uses a large persistent memory that stores everything that could be included in the input context, and an agent decides what is actually included. Take the example of building a chatbot that needs to remember what's been said earlier in a conversation (perhaps over many days of interaction with a user). As the conversation's length grows, the memory management agent will move information from the input context to a persistent searchable database; summarize information to keep relevant facts in the input context; and restore relevant conversation elements from further back in time. This allows a chatbot to keep what's currently most relevant in its input context memory to generate the next response. When I read the original MemGPT paper, I thought it was an innovative technique for handling memory for LLMs. The open-source Letta framework, which we'll use in this course, makes MemGPT easy to implement. It adds memory to your LLM agents and gives them transparent long-term memory. In detail, you’ll learn: - How to build an agent that can edit its own limited input context memory, using tools and multi-step reasoning - What is a memory hierarchy (an idea from computer operating systems, which use a cache to speed up memory access), and how these ideas apply to managing the LLM input context (where the input context window is a "cache" storing the most relevant information; and an agent decides what to move in and out of this to/from a larger persistent storage system) - How to implement multi-agent collaboration by letting different agents share blocks of memory This course will give you a sophisticated understanding of memory management for LLMs, which is important for chatbots having long conversations, and for complex agentic workflows. Please sign up here!

Andrew Ng

201,127 views • 1 year ago

Micron is going to $4,000 and once you understand what inference actually is, the number stops sounding crazy (Save this). Dylan Patel just said that by 2030, OpenAI and Anthropic alone will need over 100 gigawatts of compute combined and by 2040, we may not even be measuring AI infrastructure in gigawatts anymore. We may be talking about terawatts. Every single one of those gigawatts needs memory to function. Without it, the compute is worthless. Most people heard that and thought about Nvidia but they should be thinking about Micron. Every AI model generating a response has two phases. The first is prefill, processing your prompt which is compute-heavy and the second is decode generating each word one token at a time and that phase is almost entirely memory-bound, not compute-bound. During decode, the GPU's processing units sit idle more than 95% of the time, waiting for data to arrive from memory. Google confirmed it in a research paper that decode-phase bottlenecks are dominated by memory bandwidth and capacity not raw compute. The GPU is not the bottleneck but the memory feeding the GPU is. This matters because inference is now where all the money lives. Training a model happens once, Inference happens billions of times a day every ChatGPT response, every Claude output, every agentic workflow running in the background and every one of those token streams is a billing event tied directly to memory performance. Adding more GPUs does not fix this because GPUs are already underutilized in inference because they are sitting idle waiting on memory. Adding more memory bandwidth and capacity is what directly reduces token cost, reduces latency, and allows the same cluster to serve dramatically more users simultaneously. Longer context windows compound the problem further, a model running a 1 million token context window requires dramatically more memory per session than a 10,000 token window, and every new model generation pushes context longer. The market treats memory as a downstream beneficiary of Nvidia orders. The correct framework is the opposite, Micron is the upstream constraint on how much value every Nvidia GPU can actually generate at inference scale. Micron guided Q4 to $50 billion in revenue, has HBM4 ramping at twice the pace of the prior generation, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has said supply will not catch demand before the end of 2027. At 8x forward earnings on $112 projected FY2027 EPS, Micron is the most undervalued infrastructure company in the entire AI stack. Inference is memory. Memory is Micron and the inference ramp has barely started. Milk Road Pro members are already up massively on this position and we're just getting started. If you want the full breakdown of what we're buying and why, come join us for just a dollar using the link below!
0:39

Micron is going to $4,000 and once you understand what inference actually is, the number stops sounding crazy (Save this). Dylan Patel just said that by 2030, OpenAI and Anthropic alone will need over 100 gigawatts of compute combined and by 2040, we may not even be measuring AI infrastructure in gigawatts anymore. We may be talking about terawatts. Every single one of those gigawatts needs memory to function. Without it, the compute is worthless. Most people heard that and thought about Nvidia but they should be thinking about Micron. Every AI model generating a response has two phases. The first is prefill, processing your prompt which is compute-heavy and the second is decode generating each word one token at a time and that phase is almost entirely memory-bound, not compute-bound. During decode, the GPU's processing units sit idle more than 95% of the time, waiting for data to arrive from memory. Google confirmed it in a research paper that decode-phase bottlenecks are dominated by memory bandwidth and capacity not raw compute. The GPU is not the bottleneck but the memory feeding the GPU is. This matters because inference is now where all the money lives. Training a model happens once, Inference happens billions of times a day every ChatGPT response, every Claude output, every agentic workflow running in the background and every one of those token streams is a billing event tied directly to memory performance. Adding more GPUs does not fix this because GPUs are already underutilized in inference because they are sitting idle waiting on memory. Adding more memory bandwidth and capacity is what directly reduces token cost, reduces latency, and allows the same cluster to serve dramatically more users simultaneously. Longer context windows compound the problem further, a model running a 1 million token context window requires dramatically more memory per session than a 10,000 token window, and every new model generation pushes context longer. The market treats memory as a downstream beneficiary of Nvidia orders. The correct framework is the opposite, Micron is the upstream constraint on how much value every Nvidia GPU can actually generate at inference scale. Micron guided Q4 to $50 billion in revenue, has HBM4 ramping at twice the pace of the prior generation, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has said supply will not catch demand before the end of 2027. At 8x forward earnings on $112 projected FY2027 EPS, Micron is the most undervalued infrastructure company in the entire AI stack. Inference is memory. Memory is Micron and the inference ramp has barely started. Milk Road Pro members are already up massively on this position and we're just getting started. If you want the full breakdown of what we're buying and why, come join us for just a dollar using the link below!

Milk Road AI

130,756 views • 2 months ago

The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.
0:50

The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.

Fireside Alpha

38,370 views • 2 months ago

SK Hynix's Chey Tae-won on CNBC: * Says demand is ~doubling this year with customers asking for about double their prior orders * "Chipflation" increasing consumer prices, directly ties surging memory prices (the interviewer cites 40-50% increases) to Apple and others raising prices, and admits he has "no solution in the short term" * Capacity takes 4-5 years of lead time, so 2027 is when the shortage bites hardest before new fabs come online * References plan to double capacity within five years and says even that isn't enough for customers * Anticipates memory volume up ~5x within ten years, AI-agent usage up ~10x within five years * Nvidia is "the most important customer" but not overly reliant on one buyer, says Nvidia is foundational to the whole AI ecosystem * TSMC makes SK Hynix's base die, so he notes GPU capacity and HBM have to scale together or neither is useful * Long-term agreements (customer-driven), fab joint ventures, and "memory as a service" are how he says SK avoids repeating past over-investment busts (he references 1997 near-bankruptcy and a hard 2023) * Indiana fab + new US R&D center + a ~$10B "US AI company" to access US software/system technology * Says he's studying US and other sites (>1 month), hasn't talked directly with the US government despite July pressure from the Commerce Secretary, and customers want US-soil production * Says "fighting spirit" is edge vs Samsung and Micron, calls technology and resources roughly comparable, he credits SK Hynix's hunger (a decade under chapter 11-style hardship) and teamwork as the differentiator * Old memory demand was bounded by device count (one phone per person) but AI agents multiply memory need per person ("ten different AI agents"), which he argues stretches the cycle much longer and marks a structural change
32:43

SK Hynix's Chey Tae-won on CNBC: * Says demand is ~doubling this year with customers asking for about double their prior orders * "Chipflation" increasing consumer prices, directly ties surging memory prices (the interviewer cites 40-50% increases) to Apple and others raising prices, and admits he has "no solution in the short term" * Capacity takes 4-5 years of lead time, so 2027 is when the shortage bites hardest before new fabs come online * References plan to double capacity within five years and says even that isn't enough for customers * Anticipates memory volume up ~5x within ten years, AI-agent usage up ~10x within five years * Nvidia is "the most important customer" but not overly reliant on one buyer, says Nvidia is foundational to the whole AI ecosystem * TSMC makes SK Hynix's base die, so he notes GPU capacity and HBM have to scale together or neither is useful * Long-term agreements (customer-driven), fab joint ventures, and "memory as a service" are how he says SK avoids repeating past over-investment busts (he references 1997 near-bankruptcy and a hard 2023) * Indiana fab + new US R&D center + a ~$10B "US AI company" to access US software/system technology * Says he's studying US and other sites (>1 month), hasn't talked directly with the US government despite July pressure from the Commerce Secretary, and customers want US-soil production * Says "fighting spirit" is edge vs Samsung and Micron, calls technology and resources roughly comparable, he credits SK Hynix's hunger (a decade under chapter 11-style hardship) and teamwork as the differentiator * Old memory demand was bounded by device count (one phone per person) but AI agents multiply memory need per person ("ten different AI agents"), which he argues stretches the cycle much longer and marks a structural change

Fireside Alpha

161,404 views • 1 month ago

Micron will be a $3,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. And the earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro subscribers are already up massively in $MU Come join us using the link below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.
2:20

Micron will be a $3,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. And the earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro subscribers are already up massively in $MU Come join us using the link below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

87,687 views • 3 months ago

Micron will be a $2,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang just gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? Jensen's answer was remarkable. He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. Michael Dell put it plainly, you might soon have hundreds or thousands of digital agents working for you simultaneously, and each one requires compute, memory, storage, and networking at scale. The earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full-year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call, and our subscribers are already positioned in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.
2:20

Micron will be a $2,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang just gave the most important reason why (Save this). Jensen was asked if memory cyclical is just another boom and bust like it's always been? Jensen's answer was remarkable. He said three years ago he sat down with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and explained exactly what the future of memory demand would look like and it is playing out exactly as he described. He did the same with SK Hynix's Tony Chey years earlier, Jensen was pre aligning Micron's entire product roadmap to a vision he had already mapped out years in advance. Then he explained why this cycle is structurally different from every previous one. AI has crossed the threshold into agentic, productive capability and the way to think about AI agents is as digital workers. Michael Dell put it plainly, you might soon have hundreds or thousands of digital agents working for you simultaneously, and each one requires compute, memory, storage, and networking at scale. The earnings confirm it. Micron reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $23.86 billion up 196% yearover-year, beating estimates by 24%. Gross margins hit 74.4%, more than doubling in a single year and Q3 guidance is where it gets truly staggering. Micron guided for Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion up over 200% year over year with gross margins expected to exceed 81% and EPS projected at $19.15 against a consensus of $12.05. Analyst consensus sees full-year fiscal 2027 revenue reaching $88 billion. and yet the valuation still has not caught up. Micron's HBM TAM forecast has been pulled forward two years to $100 billion by 2028, its entire 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and HBM4 is already sold out too while the stock still trades at a forward P/E of just roughly 8x on FY2026 consensus earnings. The memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027 and new fabs don't come online until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call, and our subscribers are already positioned in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

100,736 views • 4 months ago

Micron is going to be a $4,000 stock and the CEO just told you exactly why in one interview (Save this). Micron is no longer a chip company but rather a America's monopoly on the most strategically critical material in the AI buildout. It's the only western company manufacturing memory at advanced nodes, sitting on $200 billion in committed domestic capex, with every unit of its highest value product already sold. let's start with the supply reality, Mehrotra said Micron can currently meet only 50% to two thirds of the demand from its key customers. That shortage will last well beyond 2027, and meaningful new supply from anyone in the industry does not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. Two more years of demand outpacing supply in a market growing 168% year over year and that is the floor on the bull case. Now layer on what makes this cycle structurally different from every one before it. Micron is the only American memory manufacturer on earth, Samsung and SK Hynix are South Korean. In a world where AI infrastructure has become a declared national security priority where Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Greer personally showed up to a fab dedication in Manassas, Virginia being the only US memory company is not just a competitive advantage. It is a government backed structural monopoly on the most critical input to the US AI buildout, backed by $6.2 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The $200 billion buildout spans Manassas for DDR4 defense and industrial memory, Boise for leading-edge DRAM with first wafers out mid 2027, a second Boise HBM fab with first wafers by end of 2028, and the Syracuse megafab, the largest semiconductor facility in US history, breaking ground January 2026 with up to four fabs over time. Combined, these sites take Micron's domestic production from 10% of its total output today to 40% over the next decade, and create 90,000 jobs in the process. The business model transformation is the real story. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, our complete Micron valuation model incorporating the $200 billion domestic buildout and our entire AI thesis. Link below.
10:05

Micron is going to be a $4,000 stock and the CEO just told you exactly why in one interview (Save this). Micron is no longer a chip company but rather a America's monopoly on the most strategically critical material in the AI buildout. It's the only western company manufacturing memory at advanced nodes, sitting on $200 billion in committed domestic capex, with every unit of its highest value product already sold. let's start with the supply reality, Mehrotra said Micron can currently meet only 50% to two thirds of the demand from its key customers. That shortage will last well beyond 2027, and meaningful new supply from anyone in the industry does not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. Two more years of demand outpacing supply in a market growing 168% year over year and that is the floor on the bull case. Now layer on what makes this cycle structurally different from every one before it. Micron is the only American memory manufacturer on earth, Samsung and SK Hynix are South Korean. In a world where AI infrastructure has become a declared national security priority where Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Greer personally showed up to a fab dedication in Manassas, Virginia being the only US memory company is not just a competitive advantage. It is a government backed structural monopoly on the most critical input to the US AI buildout, backed by $6.2 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The $200 billion buildout spans Manassas for DDR4 defense and industrial memory, Boise for leading-edge DRAM with first wafers out mid 2027, a second Boise HBM fab with first wafers by end of 2028, and the Syracuse megafab, the largest semiconductor facility in US history, breaking ground January 2026 with up to four fabs over time. Combined, these sites take Micron's domestic production from 10% of its total output today to 40% over the next decade, and create 90,000 jobs in the process. The business model transformation is the real story. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, our complete Micron valuation model incorporating the $200 billion domestic buildout and our entire AI thesis. Link below.

Milk Road AI

235,568 views • 3 months ago

Wonder what 2.5D advanced packaging / CoWoS looks like? ASE showed off a super cool model in Taiwan that demonstrates the various components of an advanced package "XPU / GPU" and how it is bound together by CoWoS (Chip on wafer on substrate) Center piece is the XPU logic die which does the calculations - (largest volumes made by $NVDA and $AVGO) The piece surrounding it with many layers is HBM - high bandwidth memory (made by SK Hynix, $MU, and Samsung) They are packaged together with microbumps onto the copper colored RDL. Underneath, silver colored is the silicon interposer. Finally they are placed onto the substrate itself. This complex process of advanced packaging is done to create a combined chip that is able to access different capabilities at a very fast rate (in the case of the XPU, it's to access the high bandwidth memory faster). Note you can see that the shoreline of the XPU (aka closest to the logic die for fastest I/O) is dominated by HBM. Often times AI workloads are memory bandwidth constrained, aka the constraint on the system is how fast the XPU can read and write their calculations to memory Advanced packaging is here to stay and continue to grow as techniques will expand past just the leading edge AI accelerators like GPUs and XPUs. In fact, $TSM on their last earnings call doubled their view of their Foundry TAM from $115B to $250B when including packaging, testing, and mass making! TSMC, ASE, Amkor are the leaders today in advanced packaging. In fact, ASE who presented this model invented this 2.5D - what TSMC calls CoWoS in 2014 alongside AMD. Fascinating times for the semis industry
0:33

Wonder what 2.5D advanced packaging / CoWoS looks like? ASE showed off a super cool model in Taiwan that demonstrates the various components of an advanced package "XPU / GPU" and how it is bound together by CoWoS (Chip on wafer on substrate) Center piece is the XPU logic die which does the calculations - (largest volumes made by $NVDA and $AVGO) The piece surrounding it with many layers is HBM - high bandwidth memory (made by SK Hynix, $MU, and Samsung) They are packaged together with microbumps onto the copper colored RDL. Underneath, silver colored is the silicon interposer. Finally they are placed onto the substrate itself. This complex process of advanced packaging is done to create a combined chip that is able to access different capabilities at a very fast rate (in the case of the XPU, it's to access the high bandwidth memory faster). Note you can see that the shoreline of the XPU (aka closest to the logic die for fastest I/O) is dominated by HBM. Often times AI workloads are memory bandwidth constrained, aka the constraint on the system is how fast the XPU can read and write their calculations to memory Advanced packaging is here to stay and continue to grow as techniques will expand past just the leading edge AI accelerators like GPUs and XPUs. In fact, $TSM on their last earnings call doubled their view of their Foundry TAM from $115B to $250B when including packaging, testing, and mass making! TSMC, ASE, Amkor are the leaders today in advanced packaging. In fact, ASE who presented this model invented this 2.5D - what TSMC calls CoWoS in 2014 alongside AMD. Fascinating times for the semis industry

Clark Tang

161,238 views • 2 years ago

Chamath Palihapitiya believes AGI may already exist inside leading AI labs and the bigger story is that advanced intelligence is becoming cheaper and more widely available (Save this). Chamath Palihapitiya argues that the public may be focused too much on benchmark rankings, while frontier labs are already developing models capable of complex reasoning, coding, research, and tool use. The main question is how quickly companies will release these systems and how much access they will provide. AGI has not been officially confirmed and strong benchmark results do not necessarily prove that a model can perform every intellectual task like a human. However, AI capabilities are improving quickly, while the cost of running advanced models continues to fall. That combination is important because cheaper AI can be used by more businesses for customer service, software development, research, marketing, financial analysis, and automation. Competition is also accelerating among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta, and open source developers because as more companies release capable models, users gain more choices and prices continue to decline. This creates a powerful cycle in which better models attract more users, more usage generates more revenue and data, and lower prices encourage companies to apply AI to additional tasks. The biggest challenge is moving from impressive demonstrations to measurable business results. Companies still need to redesign workflows, train employees, protect sensitive information, and prove that AI spending is producing a real return on investment. AI agents could create the next major increase in demand because they can plan tasks, use tools, check their work, retry failed actions and operate for long periods without constant human supervision. Even if each AI task becomes cheaper, total usage could grow much faster as businesses use models across more departments and this could increase demand for GPUs, high bandwidth memory, networking equipment, electricity, cooling systems, and data centers.
2:45

Chamath Palihapitiya believes AGI may already exist inside leading AI labs and the bigger story is that advanced intelligence is becoming cheaper and more widely available (Save this). Chamath Palihapitiya argues that the public may be focused too much on benchmark rankings, while frontier labs are already developing models capable of complex reasoning, coding, research, and tool use. The main question is how quickly companies will release these systems and how much access they will provide. AGI has not been officially confirmed and strong benchmark results do not necessarily prove that a model can perform every intellectual task like a human. However, AI capabilities are improving quickly, while the cost of running advanced models continues to fall. That combination is important because cheaper AI can be used by more businesses for customer service, software development, research, marketing, financial analysis, and automation. Competition is also accelerating among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta, and open source developers because as more companies release capable models, users gain more choices and prices continue to decline. This creates a powerful cycle in which better models attract more users, more usage generates more revenue and data, and lower prices encourage companies to apply AI to additional tasks. The biggest challenge is moving from impressive demonstrations to measurable business results. Companies still need to redesign workflows, train employees, protect sensitive information, and prove that AI spending is producing a real return on investment. AI agents could create the next major increase in demand because they can plan tasks, use tools, check their work, retry failed actions and operate for long periods without constant human supervision. Even if each AI task becomes cheaper, total usage could grow much faster as businesses use models across more departments and this could increase demand for GPUs, high bandwidth memory, networking equipment, electricity, cooling systems, and data centers.

Milk Road AI

13,501 views • 22 days ago

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.
4:08

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.

Melvin

94,150 views • 3 months ago

Brad took so much heat here for saying memory may not be cyclical this time. I would normally be very hesitant to claim something that has historically been cyclical is no longer cyclical, but I think it may be correct this time. As the required memory capacity and bandwidth grow, HBM turns something like a process business rather than a product business. Vertically connecting DRAM stacks into a HBM has gone through two generationa of bonding tech, thermal compression bonding and mass reflow molded underfill, and now the next-gen hybrid bonding is coming. Each generation required more capex and expertise, and this will continue through generations. Meanwhile bandwidth and capacity demand from AI accelerators will keep growing vertically. This will create an environment where only the incumbents with strong cash flows will be able to make necessary capex spending and customers won’t risk diversifying away, keeping the process expertise trapped with the incumbents, just like it happened with $TSM in foundry business. So, memory names can really be ridiculously cheap.
1:14

Brad took so much heat here for saying memory may not be cyclical this time. I would normally be very hesitant to claim something that has historically been cyclical is no longer cyclical, but I think it may be correct this time. As the required memory capacity and bandwidth grow, HBM turns something like a process business rather than a product business. Vertically connecting DRAM stacks into a HBM has gone through two generationa of bonding tech, thermal compression bonding and mass reflow molded underfill, and now the next-gen hybrid bonding is coming. Each generation required more capex and expertise, and this will continue through generations. Meanwhile bandwidth and capacity demand from AI accelerators will keep growing vertically. This will create an environment where only the incumbents with strong cash flows will be able to make necessary capex spending and customers won’t risk diversifying away, keeping the process expertise trapped with the incumbents, just like it happened with $TSM in foundry business. So, memory names can really be ridiculously cheap.

Oguz Erkan

77,171 views • 4 months ago

Elon Musk just described a project so large that most people will assume he is exaggerating (Save this). He is not. In the video, Musk lays out the central problem facing every AI company on earth, the entire global chip industry is on a path to produce roughly 100 gigawatts of AI compute per year. That sounds like a lot until you understand that his companies alone Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI will need orders of magnitude more than that. His answer is the TerraFab. It is a joint chip factory spanning 100 million square feet, ten times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory Texas announced in March 2026, with Grimes County, Texas commissioners approving the full scale facility site just last week. The goal is one full terawatt of AI compute output per year. For context, 1 terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts twice the current total electricity consumption of the United States. SpaceX has already committed an initial $55 billion to the prototype phase, with total investment estimates ranging into the trillions. Here is why this matters for Micron specifically. In the video, Musk named Nvidia's Rubin chips as the reference design for TerraFab's first orbital deployments, and said "You're going to need a lot of memory to go with that." A billion full radical equivalent chips per year, each requiring stacks of high bandwidth memory, that is the demand signal Micron just received from one of the most capital-intensive projects in human history. And Micron already cannot keep up with what exists today. Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is fully sold out contracted before the year began. HBM4 entered volume production ahead of schedule and sold out immediately. The structural reason Micron wins here is simple. Every AI chip ever built Nvidia H100s, Rubin chips, custom ASICs, TPUs is useless without high-bandwidth memory stacked directly on top of it. There are only three companies in the world that supply HBM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Samsung has had quality issues, SK Hynix is supply constrained. Micron is the only US headquartered HBM manufacturer which matters enormously given CHIPS Act subsidies, domestic procurement requirements, and the political push to keep critical AI memory production on American soil. TerraFab just made the memory deficit permanently larger. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown of Micron and our entire AI thesis just for $1. Link below!
3:30

Elon Musk just described a project so large that most people will assume he is exaggerating (Save this). He is not. In the video, Musk lays out the central problem facing every AI company on earth, the entire global chip industry is on a path to produce roughly 100 gigawatts of AI compute per year. That sounds like a lot until you understand that his companies alone Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI will need orders of magnitude more than that. His answer is the TerraFab. It is a joint chip factory spanning 100 million square feet, ten times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory Texas announced in March 2026, with Grimes County, Texas commissioners approving the full scale facility site just last week. The goal is one full terawatt of AI compute output per year. For context, 1 terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts twice the current total electricity consumption of the United States. SpaceX has already committed an initial $55 billion to the prototype phase, with total investment estimates ranging into the trillions. Here is why this matters for Micron specifically. In the video, Musk named Nvidia's Rubin chips as the reference design for TerraFab's first orbital deployments, and said "You're going to need a lot of memory to go with that." A billion full radical equivalent chips per year, each requiring stacks of high bandwidth memory, that is the demand signal Micron just received from one of the most capital-intensive projects in human history. And Micron already cannot keep up with what exists today. Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is fully sold out contracted before the year began. HBM4 entered volume production ahead of schedule and sold out immediately. The structural reason Micron wins here is simple. Every AI chip ever built Nvidia H100s, Rubin chips, custom ASICs, TPUs is useless without high-bandwidth memory stacked directly on top of it. There are only three companies in the world that supply HBM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Samsung has had quality issues, SK Hynix is supply constrained. Micron is the only US headquartered HBM manufacturer which matters enormously given CHIPS Act subsidies, domestic procurement requirements, and the political push to keep critical AI memory production on American soil. TerraFab just made the memory deficit permanently larger. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown of Micron and our entire AI thesis just for $1. Link below!

Milk Road AI

248,755 views • 3 months ago

Jensen Huang just admitted Nvidia is paying for BOTH ends of its own $500 billion deal. Every outlet ran the same headline: Nvidia is putting half a trillion dollars into Korea. The largest AI infrastructure commitment ever announced with a single partner. But when asked what was actually inside that number and whether this is Nvidia spending money in the Korean economy, or SK fronting the capital themselves, Jensen said this: "We're gonna be purchasing memories from them for many years to come. In order to build a trillion dollars worth of Vera Rubin systems, you're gonna have to buy a lot of system memories to go with it. And so we have large purchase agreements and large purchase intentions with SK Hynix. Meanwhile, SK Telecom is gonna become an AI cloud. And in that agreement, we will be selling AI supercomputers to them. So between us, we're gonna do $500 billion worth of business." He literally described two completely different transactions and added them together. Nvidia pays SK Hynix for memory chips. SK Telecom pays Nvidia for supercomputers. Both directions get stacked into one figure and handed to the market as demand. A large share of that half trillion dollars is Nvidia's own money going OUT the door. This is the CEO of the most important chip company on Earth. His silicon runs every serious AI system on the planet. If anyone alive could announce a clean half trillion in customer demand, it's him. Instead he announced a number that counts his own supplier payments as "business." But now this is where it gets genuinely crazy... Bloomberg asked how badly Nvidia needs Korean supply to grow. Jensen said Nvidia does not have enough bits. He said the company is constrained in HBM memory, constrained in LPDDR memory, and constrained in just about every part of the supply chain. Then he named the bottleneck nobody expected: "We're even constrained now with land and power and construction workers to set up the data centers." The company announcing the biggest AI deal in history cannot hire enough people to pour concrete. Then he capped the entire industry. He said the industry has the ability to double each year, and will have a hard time growing much faster than that. Now hold that against the target he set at the top of the same interview: He said the semiconductor industry probably has to become 10x larger than it is today over the next decade. Doubling annually clears that on a spreadsheet. But in reality it only happens if land, power and construction crews cooperate every single year for ten years straight. And the demand justifying all of it is a number most people have not heard yet. Jensen is planning for 100 BILLION AI agents and billions of robots using computers. That is the actual bet. 10x the industry, financed by deals where the vendor is also the customer, and gated by how fast you can find electricians. Korea's market did not celebrate any of this by the way. The KOSPI has been falling hard and SK Hynix and Samsung both slumped while the half trillion dollar headline was running. Jensen listed both directions of money and totaled them on camera because he does not think there is anything wrong with it. Maybe there isn't. Chips have to be bought before systems can be sold. But the market is pricing these announcements as demand, and at least half of this one is spending.
1:21

Jensen Huang just admitted Nvidia is paying for BOTH ends of its own $500 billion deal. Every outlet ran the same headline: Nvidia is putting half a trillion dollars into Korea. The largest AI infrastructure commitment ever announced with a single partner. But when asked what was actually inside that number and whether this is Nvidia spending money in the Korean economy, or SK fronting the capital themselves, Jensen said this: "We're gonna be purchasing memories from them for many years to come. In order to build a trillion dollars worth of Vera Rubin systems, you're gonna have to buy a lot of system memories to go with it. And so we have large purchase agreements and large purchase intentions with SK Hynix. Meanwhile, SK Telecom is gonna become an AI cloud. And in that agreement, we will be selling AI supercomputers to them. So between us, we're gonna do $500 billion worth of business." He literally described two completely different transactions and added them together. Nvidia pays SK Hynix for memory chips. SK Telecom pays Nvidia for supercomputers. Both directions get stacked into one figure and handed to the market as demand. A large share of that half trillion dollars is Nvidia's own money going OUT the door. This is the CEO of the most important chip company on Earth. His silicon runs every serious AI system on the planet. If anyone alive could announce a clean half trillion in customer demand, it's him. Instead he announced a number that counts his own supplier payments as "business." But now this is where it gets genuinely crazy... Bloomberg asked how badly Nvidia needs Korean supply to grow. Jensen said Nvidia does not have enough bits. He said the company is constrained in HBM memory, constrained in LPDDR memory, and constrained in just about every part of the supply chain. Then he named the bottleneck nobody expected: "We're even constrained now with land and power and construction workers to set up the data centers." The company announcing the biggest AI deal in history cannot hire enough people to pour concrete. Then he capped the entire industry. He said the industry has the ability to double each year, and will have a hard time growing much faster than that. Now hold that against the target he set at the top of the same interview: He said the semiconductor industry probably has to become 10x larger than it is today over the next decade. Doubling annually clears that on a spreadsheet. But in reality it only happens if land, power and construction crews cooperate every single year for ten years straight. And the demand justifying all of it is a number most people have not heard yet. Jensen is planning for 100 BILLION AI agents and billions of robots using computers. That is the actual bet. 10x the industry, financed by deals where the vendor is also the customer, and gated by how fast you can find electricians. Korea's market did not celebrate any of this by the way. The KOSPI has been falling hard and SK Hynix and Samsung both slumped while the half trillion dollar headline was running. Jensen listed both directions of money and totaled them on camera because he does not think there is anything wrong with it. Maybe there isn't. Chips have to be bought before systems can be sold. But the market is pricing these announcements as demand, and at least half of this one is spending.

Ricardo

35,609 views • 2 months ago

Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these prices. (Save this). Jensen laid out the situation in one sentence, the supply chain is lined up, the HBM is lined up with the Grace Blackwell GPUs, the only problem is that demand is much greater than the overall capacity of the world. And Michael Dell said it before Jensen even finished that memory is the single biggest supply constraint in the entire AI buildout right now. Every HBM chip that Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce consumes three times the silicon wafer area of standard DRAM. Nvidia's Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM per chip, a 260% increase over the H100 in just two generations. Every major hyperscaler has locked up contracts through 2026, and Micron has said publicly it can only fulfill about two-thirds of medium-term demand for some customers. And it's HBM production is sold out entirely for 2026 and HBM4 is also already sold out. The numbers tell the story, DDR4 spot prices surged roughly 15x in eight months. DRAM contract prices rose 90-95% in a single quarter, TrendForce called it "essentially unprecedented" in the history of the memory market. Micron has rallied roughly 68% year to date in 2026, and yet it still trades at a P/E of 37.6x against an industry average of 75.3x. The shortage does not resolve until new fabs come online, Micron's new factories are not producing until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest, and the memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro members are already up massively in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.
1:06

Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these prices. (Save this). Jensen laid out the situation in one sentence, the supply chain is lined up, the HBM is lined up with the Grace Blackwell GPUs, the only problem is that demand is much greater than the overall capacity of the world. And Michael Dell said it before Jensen even finished that memory is the single biggest supply constraint in the entire AI buildout right now. Every HBM chip that Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce consumes three times the silicon wafer area of standard DRAM. Nvidia's Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM per chip, a 260% increase over the H100 in just two generations. Every major hyperscaler has locked up contracts through 2026, and Micron has said publicly it can only fulfill about two-thirds of medium-term demand for some customers. And it's HBM production is sold out entirely for 2026 and HBM4 is also already sold out. The numbers tell the story, DDR4 spot prices surged roughly 15x in eight months. DRAM contract prices rose 90-95% in a single quarter, TrendForce called it "essentially unprecedented" in the history of the memory market. Micron has rallied roughly 68% year to date in 2026, and yet it still trades at a P/E of 37.6x against an industry average of 75.3x. The shortage does not resolve until new fabs come online, Micron's new factories are not producing until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest, and the memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro members are already up massively in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

146,867 views • 4 months ago

The CEO of the world's largest asset manager just said something that should reframe how every investor thinks about the AI trade. Larry Fink, managing $11.5 trillion at BlackRock, stood at the Milken Institute Global Conference and said four words that matter, "We just don't have enough compute." "The United States is short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there's going to be shortages in all three and memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. Fink is predicting that compute becomes a tradable commodity like oil, like grain, like natural gas where investors buy forward contracts on future capacity because the shortage is so structural and so predictable that a derivatives market will emerge to price it. That is not a minor observation from a finance executive but rather the chairman of the most powerful capital allocator on the planet telling you that compute scarcity is a multi-year, investable megatrend. The data backs him up completely. Data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips produced globally in 2026. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027 and a single AI server consumes 10-20x more memory than a conventional workload server. DRAM supply growth is running at just 16% annually while AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are not temporary dislocations, they are structural, and they will get worse before they get better. Fink also said something the bears keep getting wrong: "There is not an AI bubble. There is the opposite. We have supply shortages. Demand is growing much faster than anyone has ever anticipated." This is why the Milk Road Pro portfolio is built the way it is, long the companies producing and supplying the constrained resources: chips, memory, compute infrastructure, and power. Check out Milk Road Pro, link below to access our full thesis and plays.
0:23

The CEO of the world's largest asset manager just said something that should reframe how every investor thinks about the AI trade. Larry Fink, managing $11.5 trillion at BlackRock, stood at the Milken Institute Global Conference and said four words that matter, "We just don't have enough compute." "The United States is short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there's going to be shortages in all three and memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. Fink is predicting that compute becomes a tradable commodity like oil, like grain, like natural gas where investors buy forward contracts on future capacity because the shortage is so structural and so predictable that a derivatives market will emerge to price it. That is not a minor observation from a finance executive but rather the chairman of the most powerful capital allocator on the planet telling you that compute scarcity is a multi-year, investable megatrend. The data backs him up completely. Data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips produced globally in 2026. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027 and a single AI server consumes 10-20x more memory than a conventional workload server. DRAM supply growth is running at just 16% annually while AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are not temporary dislocations, they are structural, and they will get worse before they get better. Fink also said something the bears keep getting wrong: "There is not an AI bubble. There is the opposite. We have supply shortages. Demand is growing much faster than anyone has ever anticipated." This is why the Milk Road Pro portfolio is built the way it is, long the companies producing and supplying the constrained resources: chips, memory, compute infrastructure, and power. Check out Milk Road Pro, link below to access our full thesis and plays.

Milk Road AI

419,755 views • 4 months ago

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.
0:58

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.

Ricardo

594,643 views • 8 months ago

AutoGPT might be the next big step in AI. Here's why Karpathy recently said "AutoGPT is the next frontier of prompt engineering" AutoGPT is the equivalent of giving GPT-based models a memory and a body. You can now give a task to an AI agent and have it autonomously come up with a plan, execute on it, browse the web, and use new data to revise the strategy until the task is completed. It can analyze the market and come up with a trading strategy, customer service, marketing, finance, or other tasks that requires continuous updates. There are three components to it: 1. Architecture: It leverages GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 via API. 2. Autonomous Iterations: AutoGPT can refine its outputs by self-critical review, building on its previous work and integrating prompt history for more accurate results. 3. Memory Management: Integration with Pinecone allows for long-term memory storage, enabling context preservation and improved decision-making. 4. Multi-functionality: Capabilities include file manipulation, web browsing, and data retrieval, distinguishing AutoGPT from previous AI advancements by broadening its application scope.
0:29

AutoGPT might be the next big step in AI. Here's why Karpathy recently said "AutoGPT is the next frontier of prompt engineering" AutoGPT is the equivalent of giving GPT-based models a memory and a body. You can now give a task to an AI agent and have it autonomously come up with a plan, execute on it, browse the web, and use new data to revise the strategy until the task is completed. It can analyze the market and come up with a trading strategy, customer service, marketing, finance, or other tasks that requires continuous updates. There are three components to it: 1. Architecture: It leverages GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 via API. 2. Autonomous Iterations: AutoGPT can refine its outputs by self-critical review, building on its previous work and integrating prompt history for more accurate results. 3. Memory Management: Integration with Pinecone allows for long-term memory storage, enabling context preservation and improved decision-making. 4. Multi-functionality: Capabilities include file manipulation, web browsing, and data retrieval, distinguishing AutoGPT from previous AI advancements by broadening its application scope.

Lior Alexander

808,154 views • 3 years ago