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You will learn CEBE because it is the future. Trust the math. Not feelings. $MSTR $BTC

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Adam Livingston

83,429 subscribers

47,218 views • 8 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.
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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,262 views • 3 months ago

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.
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🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,189 views • 1 month ago

If MSTR is really a better investment than BTC, then why isn't Saylor selling his BTC to buy back MSTR stock?
0:12

If MSTR is really a better investment than BTC, then why isn't Saylor selling his BTC to buy back MSTR stock?

Pledditor

59,471 views • 1 year ago

🇺🇸 REP. MASSIE: I TRUST THE MATH FROM THE GUY THAT LANDS ROCKETS BACKWARDS "Personally, I trust the math from the guy that lands rockets backwards over the politician's math. I think that patient is on life support, and if the Senate thinks they're gonna rehabilitate it and rewrite it, I think they're endangering this patient." Source: Acyn Thomas Massie Elon Musk
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🇺🇸 REP. MASSIE: I TRUST THE MATH FROM THE GUY THAT LANDS ROCKETS BACKWARDS "Personally, I trust the math from the guy that lands rockets backwards over the politician's math. I think that patient is on life support, and if the Senate thinks they're gonna rehabilitate it and rewrite it, I think they're endangering this patient." Source: Acyn Thomas Massie Elon Musk

Mario Nawfal

1,026,992 views • 1 year ago

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.
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Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Adam Livingston

131,929 views • 7 months ago

wsw will realize his feelings and initiate the kiss, trust me on this
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wsw will realize his feelings and initiate the kiss, trust me on this

affie

103,971 views • 1 year ago

This is how you learn Math! 🤣🤣
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This is how you learn Math! 🤣🤣

LynneP

95,915 views • 8 months ago

i'm not afraid on whatever decisions she will make in the future. she will always have my love and support. i trust her. i believe in her. and that's because she is... #SAKURA #사쿠라 #ックラ #宮脇咲良 #sakumail
0:15

i'm not afraid on whatever decisions she will make in the future. she will always have my love and support. i trust her. i believe in her. and that's because she is... #SAKURA #사쿠라 #ックラ #宮脇咲良 #sakumail

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195,183 views • 3 years ago

Trust is the fundamental basis of any relationship... Without trust this relationship cannot continue. It will not bear fruit 💜💜💜
0:16

Trust is the fundamental basis of any relationship... Without trust this relationship cannot continue. It will not bear fruit 💜💜💜

jin__wwh

189,866 views • 1 year ago

Earning the trust of a stray cat is one of the greatest feelings
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We are waiting for you, Kabobi. Whoever is caught will not like it because it is the work of all security forces, supported by the great people of Uganda.
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56,059 views • 9 months ago

"White Brits will become a minority in this country before the end of the century ... the future will be manifestly unjust." Too little to late, Nigel. You tried to throw us under the bus because it was politically convenient. You are a coward. Not interested.
0:11

"White Brits will become a minority in this country before the end of the century ... the future will be manifestly unjust." Too little to late, Nigel. You tried to throw us under the bus because it was politically convenient. You are a coward. Not interested.

Landeur 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

33,448 views • 17 days ago

the math is not mathing
0:15

the math is not mathing

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the math is not mathing
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the math is not mathing

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The future is not going to be great for feminists. One day, you will get the equality you are asking for.
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The future is not going to be great for feminists. One day, you will get the equality you are asking for.

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Toilet of the Future. Will you try it?
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Toilet of the Future. Will you try it?

The_Bearded_Dr_Sina

3,096,883 views • 1 year ago

Bitcoin is once again behaving exactly like it did in previous cycles Look at the video I shared. This is the same move we saw in 2022, literally identical😱 This is a trap. Don’t fall for it 🎯 $BTC $MSTR $ETH
0:12

Bitcoin is once again behaving exactly like it did in previous cycles Look at the video I shared. This is the same move we saw in 2022, literally identical😱 This is a trap. Don’t fall for it 🎯 $BTC $MSTR $ETH

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The math is not mathing 🤣
0:10

The math is not mathing 🤣

Every Movie Plug

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The past is shattered into fragments, but the future can still be changed… Heaven's Secret 3—the continuation is almost here 😈 Whose side will you trust this time? ✍️ #RomanceClub #mobilegame #visualnovel
0:16

The past is shattered into fragments, but the future can still be changed… Heaven's Secret 3—the continuation is almost here 😈 Whose side will you trust this time? ✍️ #RomanceClub #mobilegame #visualnovel

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