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𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁, 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆, 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲, 𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲. Paul Kedrosky argues this is the first bubble with all four elements at once. We get into: → Tokens as the fastest-deflating commodity in modern economic history → Why 80% annual price declines... show more

Meb Faber

143,796 subscribers

57,914 views • 26 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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17 Comments

Meb Faber26 days ago

Apple: Spotify: YouTube:

John Koretoff26 days ago

Kedrosky's 80% annual token-price decline is the piece that makes the rest of the argument click: the labs need 400% volume growth just to hold revenue flat. That is why the technology story arrives with all four ingredients at once — volume has to replace price, so loose credit, data-center real estate, and policy have to keep feeding the machine.

Damian Roskill25 days ago

@pkedrosky His argument about people rejecting AI data centers due to "loss of agency" isn't supported by the data.

Frank Curzio26 days ago

@pkedrosky I like Paul. I was on CNBC with him back in the day debating stocks. With that said… he’s been saying “AI is in a bubble” since early 2025 when AI CapEx was at $300b. It’s now projected to grow to $1.3T next year. How does that call make investors money?

RacingSisyphus26 days ago

@pkedrosky I spent five great years working with Paul while at the Kauffman Foundation. Analytical and never afraid to counter the narrative. I still bounce ideas off Paul. Fun person to be around and talk about the future - you can love the future and hate the investment narrative.

Alex DeWolf26 days ago

@pkedrosky Everyone focuses on the massive data center buildout, but the real sleeper risk is how corporate credit markets absorb that paper when tech capex inevitably meets a growth ceiling

@jimaverse24 days ago

@pkedrosky Tell Paul to talk faster next time

JackH26 days ago

@pkedrosky Regardless of the industry or time, loose credit is the fuel for every asset bubble.

Johannes26 days ago

@pkedrosky This is a really great guest. I listen to AI-bubble podcasts every single day of my life and this guy still managed to bring new perspectives.

Kush26 days ago

@pkedrosky Yeah, this is the part that stands out to me too. It’s not just expensive tech anymore. Credit, capex and growth are all leaning on the same AI story.

Strategy👆 My Profile+1479289392826 days ago

@pkedrosky 👆Teacher, your strategic analysis is fantastic!

Paul Tsang25 days ago

@pkedrosky What do you thinkd.

Lord Nikon24 days ago

@pkedrosky Token prices fall due to capex and compute increasing availability. Once capex stops so do token prices. As soon as demand dries up, capex will slow and token prices too. Only algorithmic innovation can make token prices go down further (and this is true risk for DCs)

RacingSisyphus26 days ago

@pkedrosky best line - Wiley Coyote v. Road Runner moment in AI financing re: the massive deflationary impact of tokens.

Robert Madara26 days ago

@pkedrosky 2006-07 already ran loose credit, housing and policy with tech still bidding. So 'first' is a stretch. The real novelty is the collateral being the story itself. When the narrative is the asset, the unwind comes faster than anyone expects.

TTD 🇮🇩25 days ago

@pkedrosky Agreed

Damian Roskill25 days ago

@pkedrosky While token prices have collapsed, the rise of agentic activities has meant a huge rise in token usage - so while tokens have gotten cheaper, AI bills have gone up. It's a fair question though whether that patterns goes forward (programmers -> general enterprise).

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Wimar.X

826,109 views • 3 months ago

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DANNY

583,224 views • 3 months ago

"We are likely to be in a situation where over the next twelve months, we see more supply come into the US stock market than has been the case in living memory" "We could be talking about five or six percent of aggregate US market cap coming in as supply." "If you look at the impact on the stock market, it's not when an IPO occurs, it's kind of in the twelve months afterwards" "The rule of thumb, if you looked at history, is that a one percent increase in supply is associated with a seven and a half percent worse return over the over the subsequent year." GMO Head of Asset Allocation Ben Inker on SpaceX and the other big IPOs likely coming this year.

"We are likely to be in a situation where over the next twelve months, we see more supply come into the US stock market than has been the case in living memory" "We could be talking about five or six percent of aggregate US market cap coming in as supply." "If you look at the impact on the stock market, it's not when an IPO occurs, it's kind of in the twelve months afterwards" "The rule of thumb, if you looked at history, is that a one percent increase in supply is associated with a seven and a half percent worse return over the over the subsequent year." GMO Head of Asset Allocation Ben Inker on SpaceX and the other big IPOs likely coming this year.

Excess Returns

32,586 views • 2 months ago

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING SpaceX will go public tomorrow at a $1.75T valuation. The biggest IPO in market history. And Wall Street just changed the rules right before it happens. I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them rewrite the rules so urgently: IPO access now lowered from $500,000 to $2,000 (-99.6% cut). That means millions of investors can suddenly enter a deal and buy shares tomorrow. One day before the most expensive IPO in history. And suddenly... SpaceX reserved up to 30% of the deal for regular investors. Three times the normal share. Why? Because retail investors need to buy what insiders sell. And here is the part most people are missing: SpaceX does not just create demand for SpaceX. It pulls liquidity out of everything else: - Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO. - Funds sell stocks to prepare for forced buying. - Brokers open access to generate demand. - Everyone needs cash at the same time. That is why the market is selling now. First, insiders create the hype. Then brokers open the gates. Then regular investors rush in. And by the time the crowd realizes what happened, the exit door is already closed. We’ve seen this before. 2000: Dotcom IPOs became the symbol of the bubble. Then Nasdaq collapsed 80%. 2021: SPACs, Coinbase, Robinhood, Rivian. Retail thought they were buying the future. They were buying the exit. Now the same playbook is back. Only this time, it is much bigger. When Wall Street cuts the entry ticket from $500K to $2K right before a $1.75T IPO, they are not giving retail a gift. They are creating buyers. Remember: Insiders need liquidity. Funds need allocation. The market needs a dream. And Wall Street needs someone to hold the bag. That is what tomorrow is really about. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING SpaceX will go public tomorrow at a $1.75T valuation. The biggest IPO in market history. And Wall Street just changed the rules right before it happens. I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them rewrite the rules so urgently: IPO access now lowered from $500,000 to $2,000 (-99.6% cut). That means millions of investors can suddenly enter a deal and buy shares tomorrow. One day before the most expensive IPO in history. And suddenly... SpaceX reserved up to 30% of the deal for regular investors. Three times the normal share. Why? Because retail investors need to buy what insiders sell. And here is the part most people are missing: SpaceX does not just create demand for SpaceX. It pulls liquidity out of everything else: - Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO. - Funds sell stocks to prepare for forced buying. - Brokers open access to generate demand. - Everyone needs cash at the same time. That is why the market is selling now. First, insiders create the hype. Then brokers open the gates. Then regular investors rush in. And by the time the crowd realizes what happened, the exit door is already closed. We’ve seen this before. 2000: Dotcom IPOs became the symbol of the bubble. Then Nasdaq collapsed 80%. 2021: SPACs, Coinbase, Robinhood, Rivian. Retail thought they were buying the future. They were buying the exit. Now the same playbook is back. Only this time, it is much bigger. When Wall Street cuts the entry ticket from $500K to $2K right before a $1.75T IPO, they are not giving retail a gift. They are creating buyers. Remember: Insiders need liquidity. Funds need allocation. The market needs a dream. And Wall Street needs someone to hold the bag. That is what tomorrow is really about. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

1,751,016 views • 3 months ago

Satya Nadella was asked what Microsoft does when its AI revenue 10x's from $13B to $130B. He refused to answer in revenue - and named the only AGI benchmark he says counts "The first thing we have to observe is GDP growth. There's only one governor in all of this" "This is where a little bit of, we get ahead of ourselves with all this AGI hype" "The developed world is what, 2% growth? And if you adjust for inflation, it's zero. We have a real growth challenge" "When we say this is like the Industrial Revolution - that type of growth means to me 10%, 7%, developed world inflation adjusted, growing at 5%. That's the real marker" "The big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity" "Us self-claiming some AGI milestone - that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is the world growing at 10%" The CEO with one of the largest AI infrastructure bets on earth just told you to ignore every model benchmark and watch a single number: world GDP. By that test, nothing has happened yet. Developed-world growth is flat, and no lab's press release moves it. Real AGI shows up as the economy compounding at Industrial Revolution rates - or it isn't real.

Satya Nadella was asked what Microsoft does when its AI revenue 10x's from $13B to $130B. He refused to answer in revenue - and named the only AGI benchmark he says counts "The first thing we have to observe is GDP growth. There's only one governor in all of this" "This is where a little bit of, we get ahead of ourselves with all this AGI hype" "The developed world is what, 2% growth? And if you adjust for inflation, it's zero. We have a real growth challenge" "When we say this is like the Industrial Revolution - that type of growth means to me 10%, 7%, developed world inflation adjusted, growing at 5%. That's the real marker" "The big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity" "Us self-claiming some AGI milestone - that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is the world growing at 10%" The CEO with one of the largest AI infrastructure bets on earth just told you to ignore every model benchmark and watch a single number: world GDP. By that test, nothing has happened yet. Developed-world growth is flat, and no lab's press release moves it. Real AGI shows up as the economy compounding at Industrial Revolution rates - or it isn't real.

Karl Mehta

82,403 views • 2 months ago

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Why do we have inflation? The Fed tries to force 2% inflation. It wasn’t always this way. “The natural tendency for prices is to go down. If you look at the CPI in 1900 and you look at it in 1800, it was down by 50%. So for a hundred years in America, prices went down. And during that time, we had the Industrial Revolution.” “We had the most rapid period of economic growth in the history of America, which was after the Civil War and into the early 1900s. All the time prices were coming down.” “Today, the Federal Reserve says that we need to have 2 % inflation. Prices have to go up 2 % a year. Why? I mean, why does the cost of living have to go up? Why can't it go down or at least remain the same? And what is the answer to that? What's the rationale for that?” “Well, they have a bunch of BS explanations and it's all to justify the fact that the government wants inflation. It's not that it's good for us. The government needs it.” “It's the way the government raises revenue and repudiates its debts.” Peter Schiff

Wall Street Mav

98,990 views • 5 months ago

The biggest marketplace on Earth won't be the assets humans own. It'll be the data AI needs. Everything that can be digitised is getting pulled in to train the next models. Every scientific dataset, every piece of research sitting in a university, every sensor reading off every John Deere tractor in a field. All of it feeds the machine, and almost none of it is visible to us. What comes out is an agentic economy running at machine speed. You plug your data into a vault, and agents monetise it on your behalf, trading with other agents in real time, in a marketplace we never see. The company sitting on proprietary data becomes part of it without even knowing. This is what the Economic Singularity actually looks like from the inside. The real economy stops being the one we can see and price, and moves somewhere we can't follow. You own a piece of it, or you get priced out of it. Jordi Visser.

The biggest marketplace on Earth won't be the assets humans own. It'll be the data AI needs. Everything that can be digitised is getting pulled in to train the next models. Every scientific dataset, every piece of research sitting in a university, every sensor reading off every John Deere tractor in a field. All of it feeds the machine, and almost none of it is visible to us. What comes out is an agentic economy running at machine speed. You plug your data into a vault, and agents monetise it on your behalf, trading with other agents in real time, in a marketplace we never see. The company sitting on proprietary data becomes part of it without even knowing. This is what the Economic Singularity actually looks like from the inside. The real economy stops being the one we can see and price, and moves somewhere we can't follow. You own a piece of it, or you get priced out of it. Jordi Visser.

Raoul Pal

79,047 views • 2 months ago

Databricks' Ali Ghodsi with a16z's Martin Casado on who should be policing the AI labs: Martin: "There's kind of three proposals. The OpenAI, Anthropic one is a third party. The Elon Musk one, as far as I can tell, is the labs cross-check each other like peer review, like you do in science. And then the Mark Zuckerberg one is police yourself." Ali: "If we have boxing matches in the ring, the boxers should just be the judges of each other. Would that work? No. They would scream foul all the time." "When vested interests are at play and there's like IPO plans and these two companies are so competitive and they have this history also between them, yeah, they'll be *very* fair to each other." "That's why you need a third party. Why do we have judges in the world at all? Why do we have third parties at all? Why can't people just figure things out between themselves?" "They should try. If they want to do it, they should try. But I'm skeptical that they wouldn't just be biased in multiple ways to judge each other." Ali Ghodsi martin_casado Sarah Wang

Databricks' Ali Ghodsi with a16z's Martin Casado on who should be policing the AI labs: Martin: "There's kind of three proposals. The OpenAI, Anthropic one is a third party. The Elon Musk one, as far as I can tell, is the labs cross-check each other like peer review, like you do in science. And then the Mark Zuckerberg one is police yourself." Ali: "If we have boxing matches in the ring, the boxers should just be the judges of each other. Would that work? No. They would scream foul all the time." "When vested interests are at play and there's like IPO plans and these two companies are so competitive and they have this history also between them, yeah, they'll be very fair to each other." "That's why you need a third party. Why do we have judges in the world at all? Why do we have third parties at all? Why can't people just figure things out between themselves?" "They should try. If they want to do it, they should try. But I'm skeptical that they wouldn't just be biased in multiple ways to judge each other." Ali Ghodsi martin_casado Sarah Wang

a16z

36,661 views • 4 days ago

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH THE S&P 500 Read this carefully before buying stocks! The biggest IPO wave in decades is colliding with one of the most concentrated markets in history. 1. The IPO wave is already here. > SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history in June, raising $75 BILLION at a ~$1.77 TRILLION valuation. > Anthropic is now preparing for a potential Nasdaq IPO, with its valuation reportedly reaching as high as ~$2 TRILLION. > OpenAI was also considered one of the next trillion-dollar IPO candidates, but Sam Altman has now ruled out an IPO in 2026. And that actually makes the setup even more interesting! 2. The S&P 500 is already extremely concentrated. The Magnificent Seven currently represent roughly 34% of the entire S&P 500, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Tesla carrying an enormous share of the index. Now imagine another massive Anthropic offering pulling tens of billions of dollars into a brand-new AI stock. That money has to come from somewhere. Funds could rotate capital out of today's biggest winners to make room for the next generation of AI giants. Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. Amazon. THE SAME STOCKS CURRENTLY HOLDING UP THE INDEX! SpaceX also showed exactly how extreme this IPO cycle has become: $75 BILLION raised in a single offering. Anthropic could potentially be even bigger. 3. History has seen this setup before. Near the peak of every major bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of companies investors believed could not lose: > The Roaring Twenties > The Nifty Fifty > Japan's 1980s asset bubble > The Dot-Com Bubble Today, U.S. market concentration is once again near historic extremes. 4. Great companies can still become terrible investments at the wrong valuation. During the Dot-Com collapse, some of the strongest companies on Earth suffered brutal drawdowns: Amazon: ~-95% Microsoft: ~-65% Intel: ~-80%+ Oracle: ~-80%+ Yahoo: ~-97% A great business does not protect investors from extreme valuations. And now private AI companies are approaching trillion-dollar valuations while the industry is still burning enormous amounts of capital. THAT IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF EUPHORIA THAT SHOULD MAKE INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION! I've said this before, and the cycle is still moving in the same direction. Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below. THE NEXT PHASE COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE YET!

Qmo

59,017 views • 10 days ago

New PNAS paper. Historical GDP per capita data is scarce, but data on the places of birth, death, and occupations of famous individuals is abundant. In this paper we estimate the historical GDP per capita of hundreds of regions in Europe and North America using a machine learning model that leveraged data on about 500k famous biographies. Our estimates more-or-less quadruple the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates for the last 700 years. So why use biographies to augment historical GDP per capita data? Biographical data contains information about people who might have contributed directly to economic growth, like James Watt, or that were attracted to wealthy places looking for patrons, like Michelangelo. So we--mainly Philipp (Philipp Koch)--used this data to construct hundreds of features describing each European region. Then, we trained a machine learning model to find the features that explained most of the variance in a cross-validation test, where we split regions multiple times into a training set and a test set. On average, the model explained about 90% of the variance in GDP per capita of the regions it had not seen during training. But we wanted to go further, and Philipp really went to town by looking at different ways to validate our estimates. We found our estimates correlate positively with historical measures of wellbeing, church building activity, urbanization, and body height. We also used these measures to reproduce the basic Atlantic trade result of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robison and to explore the economic consequences of the famous Lisbon earthquake of 1755. But what I personally loved most about this project, other than working with Philipp Koch and V, is that it shows that we can use machine learning methods not only to explore the future, but the past. There is a bright and growing future in the use of machine learning for economic history. Hope you enjoy the paper and the data. You can find links to the paper and a data exploration tool in the first comment.

New PNAS paper. Historical GDP per capita data is scarce, but data on the places of birth, death, and occupations of famous individuals is abundant. In this paper we estimate the historical GDP per capita of hundreds of regions in Europe and North America using a machine learning model that leveraged data on about 500k famous biographies. Our estimates more-or-less quadruple the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates for the last 700 years. So why use biographies to augment historical GDP per capita data? Biographical data contains information about people who might have contributed directly to economic growth, like James Watt, or that were attracted to wealthy places looking for patrons, like Michelangelo. So we--mainly Philipp (Philipp Koch)--used this data to construct hundreds of features describing each European region. Then, we trained a machine learning model to find the features that explained most of the variance in a cross-validation test, where we split regions multiple times into a training set and a test set. On average, the model explained about 90% of the variance in GDP per capita of the regions it had not seen during training. But we wanted to go further, and Philipp really went to town by looking at different ways to validate our estimates. We found our estimates correlate positively with historical measures of wellbeing, church building activity, urbanization, and body height. We also used these measures to reproduce the basic Atlantic trade result of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robison and to explore the economic consequences of the famous Lisbon earthquake of 1755. But what I personally loved most about this project, other than working with Philipp Koch and V, is that it shows that we can use machine learning methods not only to explore the future, but the past. There is a bright and growing future in the use of machine learning for economic history. Hope you enjoy the paper and the data. You can find links to the paper and a data exploration tool in the first comment.

César A. Hidalgo

54,355 views • 2 years ago

Mark Cuban watching AI repeat the exact same pattern as dot com bubble: "if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts" this is him explaining why he thinks most VCs and funds are about to get wiped out, why CEOs have no idea what's coming, and what the dot-com bubble taught him about what happens when everyone prices to perfection "it's not the traditional dot-com bubble - but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE - because they're going all in" "CEOs have no clue what is going on with AI - none whatsoever - and that's not going to change" "every single business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Mark Cuban watching AI repeat the exact same pattern as dot com bubble: "if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts" this is him explaining why he thinks most VCs and funds are about to get wiped out, why CEOs have no idea what's coming, and what the dot-com bubble taught him about what happens when everyone prices to perfection "it's not the traditional dot-com bubble - but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE - because they're going all in" "CEOs have no clue what is going on with AI - none whatsoever - and that's not going to change" "every single business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

691,834 views • 2 months ago

Chamath: Frontier AI Leaders “Created a Total F*cking Mess” Short-sighted fearmongering and immaturity from frontier AI leaders has created deep mistrust, threatening AI’s potential as an open engine of economic mobility. That mistrust gives hyperscalers the chance to position themselves as trusted gatekeepers, using KYC, audit trails, and compliance infrastructure to turn AI into an oligopoly. Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In Pod: “I think the leaders of the frontier labs leave a lot to be desired. I think what we're seeing is a consistent pattern of evasiveness and immaturity, and I think that does a huge disservice to the entire movement of AI. The key to a vibrant life is rooted in economic mobility, and I think AI is the grand leveler. It is the thing that can enable everyone to have unique amounts of economic mobility because they are unencumbered to figure out what their upper bound is. And against that backdrop, we have to live in this constant doomerism, hype cycle, naivety, and I think it holds us back. How does it hold us back? Tactically, number one, it creates mistrust. I think that Silicon Valley was already decaying in the prestige that it held in American society. We built important things. Then we veered away from that, and we started building less important things. And now we're at a point where we've potentially started to rebuild important things again, but we have this veneer of negativity and mistrust that are created in large part because we just cannot get our sh*t together. And the leaders of the frontier labs are public enemy number one. Number two, I think what it creates, which I think is bad, but what it creates is an incredible opportunity for the hyperscalers. And the very simple opportunity is to convince governments all around the world, not just America, that they should be the gatekeeper. A: You can't trust these guys. B: These models are all over the place. C: Let us be the ones that provision them to the world. We will wrap it in KYC. I've been now talking about KYC for a while, right? Who are these customers? Do they have identification? Why are they allowed to run these models? What are they prompting? Let's keep them so that there's an audit trail. All of these things are going to become issues. The Frontier Lab folks made it an issue because of how they've handled all of this up until now. And what does that create? Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers, who by the way, would make an incredibly compelling argument, and they would be right. And the only counterfactual to it would be, ‘Well, trust us, guys, it should actually be much more open and in a far more distributed environment.’ Can you imagine the cost and the complexity if you ask the neoscaler to build the same robust KYC or the same VPC infrastructure that Amazon and Microsoft and Google have spent decades investing trillions of dollars in? It's an impossibility, Jason. So you can take all of those datacenters off the map. You can take all of the neoscaler market off the map. All of this was preventable. So instead of a diverse, robust, open ecosystem giving a tool that is the fundamental unlock for humans, we are now going to debate gatekeeping and duopoly versus oligopoly. They have created a total f*cking mess, and it's a shame.”

Chamath: Frontier AI Leaders “Created a Total Fcking Mess” Short-sighted fearmongering and immaturity from frontier AI leaders has created deep mistrust, threatening AI’s potential as an open engine of economic mobility. That mistrust gives hyperscalers the chance to position themselves as trusted gatekeepers, using KYC, audit trails, and compliance infrastructure to turn AI into an oligopoly. Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In Pod: “I think the leaders of the frontier labs leave a lot to be desired. I think what we're seeing is a consistent pattern of evasiveness and immaturity, and I think that does a huge disservice to the entire movement of AI. The key to a vibrant life is rooted in economic mobility, and I think AI is the grand leveler. It is the thing that can enable everyone to have unique amounts of economic mobility because they are unencumbered to figure out what their upper bound is. And against that backdrop, we have to live in this constant doomerism, hype cycle, naivety, and I think it holds us back. How does it hold us back? Tactically, number one, it creates mistrust. I think that Silicon Valley was already decaying in the prestige that it held in American society. We built important things. Then we veered away from that, and we started building less important things. And now we're at a point where we've potentially started to rebuild important things again, but we have this veneer of negativity and mistrust that are created in large part because we just cannot get our sht together. And the leaders of the frontier labs are public enemy number one. Number two, I think what it creates, which I think is bad, but what it creates is an incredible opportunity for the hyperscalers. And the very simple opportunity is to convince governments all around the world, not just America, that they should be the gatekeeper. A: You can't trust these guys. B: These models are all over the place. C: Let us be the ones that provision them to the world. We will wrap it in KYC. I've been now talking about KYC for a while, right? Who are these customers? Do they have identification? Why are they allowed to run these models? What are they prompting? Let's keep them so that there's an audit trail. All of these things are going to become issues. The Frontier Lab folks made it an issue because of how they've handled all of this up until now. And what does that create? Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers, who by the way, would make an incredibly compelling argument, and they would be right. And the only counterfactual to it would be, ‘Well, trust us, guys, it should actually be much more open and in a far more distributed environment.’ Can you imagine the cost and the complexity if you ask the neoscaler to build the same robust KYC or the same VPC infrastructure that Amazon and Microsoft and Google have spent decades investing trillions of dollars in? It's an impossibility, Jason. So you can take all of those datacenters off the map. You can take all of the neoscaler market off the map. All of this was preventable. So instead of a diverse, robust, open ecosystem giving a tool that is the fundamental unlock for humans, we are now going to debate gatekeeping and duopoly versus oligopoly. They have created a total f*cking mess, and it's a shame.”

The All-In Podcast

142,502 views • 3 months ago

Nebius will be a TRILLION dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). Brad Gerstner's Altimeter just said on camera that they are invested in ClickHouse, and explained exactly why in one sentence: "If you're in the data infrastructure layer, then token consumption is driving a lot more consumption of your basic services." The flip side of that point is equally important. Gerstner added that the closer you are to a point solution, a single use app built on top of AI, "that feels like you're on the front of the conveyor belt heading toward the guillotine." Models get better, apps get commoditized and the companies that own the foundational infrastructure that every AI application must run through keep compounding. ClickHouse is exactly that foundational layer. It is a real time analytical database engine originally built inside Yandex, optimized for the exact query patterns that AI agents, LLM observability pipelines, and machine learning infrastructure generate, massive write volumes, complex aggregations, and sub-second response at scale. It processes hundreds of billions of rows per second, serves over 2,000 enterprise customers including Cloudflare, Uber and ByteDance, and grew 300% in a single year. In January 2026, a $400 million Series D valued ClickHouse at $15 billion more than double its $6 billion valuation just eight months prior. Here is where Nebius comes in. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, an asset that traces back to its Yandex origins. At ClickHouse's current $15 billion valuation, that stake is worth approximately $4.2 billion, sitting largely unrecognized on Nebius's balance sheet while most market coverage focuses entirely on the AI cloud business. A ClickHouse IPO, which the company is actively positioning toward, would force the market to mark that position to full public market value for the first time and could alone reprice Nebius meaningfully. But that hidden asset is just one layer of the bull case. The core AI cloud business just printed 684% year over year revenue growth, $399 million in Q1 2026 against $50 million a year prior. AI specific revenue grew 841% and now represents 98% of total revenue. The moat underneath those numbers is 3.5 gigawatts of secured power capacity, a $27 billion five year contract with Meta, a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, all stacked on top of a ClickHouse stake that the market is still not fully pricing in. Milk Road Pro remains massively bullish on Nebius, we called it early, we are up huge on the position, and we continue to track every development across AI infrastructure before it becomes obvious to the rest of the market. Come join us to see our full Nebius thesis and every other position in the portfolio, link below!

Nebius will be a TRILLION dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). Brad Gerstner's Altimeter just said on camera that they are invested in ClickHouse, and explained exactly why in one sentence: "If you're in the data infrastructure layer, then token consumption is driving a lot more consumption of your basic services." The flip side of that point is equally important. Gerstner added that the closer you are to a point solution, a single use app built on top of AI, "that feels like you're on the front of the conveyor belt heading toward the guillotine." Models get better, apps get commoditized and the companies that own the foundational infrastructure that every AI application must run through keep compounding. ClickHouse is exactly that foundational layer. It is a real time analytical database engine originally built inside Yandex, optimized for the exact query patterns that AI agents, LLM observability pipelines, and machine learning infrastructure generate, massive write volumes, complex aggregations, and sub-second response at scale. It processes hundreds of billions of rows per second, serves over 2,000 enterprise customers including Cloudflare, Uber and ByteDance, and grew 300% in a single year. In January 2026, a $400 million Series D valued ClickHouse at $15 billion more than double its $6 billion valuation just eight months prior. Here is where Nebius comes in. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, an asset that traces back to its Yandex origins. At ClickHouse's current $15 billion valuation, that stake is worth approximately $4.2 billion, sitting largely unrecognized on Nebius's balance sheet while most market coverage focuses entirely on the AI cloud business. A ClickHouse IPO, which the company is actively positioning toward, would force the market to mark that position to full public market value for the first time and could alone reprice Nebius meaningfully. But that hidden asset is just one layer of the bull case. The core AI cloud business just printed 684% year over year revenue growth, $399 million in Q1 2026 against $50 million a year prior. AI specific revenue grew 841% and now represents 98% of total revenue. The moat underneath those numbers is 3.5 gigawatts of secured power capacity, a $27 billion five year contract with Meta, a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, all stacked on top of a ClickHouse stake that the market is still not fully pricing in. Milk Road Pro remains massively bullish on Nebius, we called it early, we are up huge on the position, and we continue to track every development across AI infrastructure before it becomes obvious to the rest of the market. Come join us to see our full Nebius thesis and every other position in the portfolio, link below!

Milk Road AI

216,498 views • 4 months ago

🚨 WARNING: SPACEX IPO WILL BE A MASSIVE STORM FOR MARKETS!! Everyone thinks $SPCX IPO will be free money. But people thought the same about Rocket Lab. $RKLB went public in 2021 with massive space stock hype. Then it dumped 82.8% from its 2021 high to its 2022 low. Retail bought the future. Then reality hit. Now the same setup is coming again, but much bigger. SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12 at a $1.75 TRILLION to $2 TRILLION valuation. That would instantly make it one of the biggest companies in the US market. But here’s the problem. This is not just an IPO. This is a massive liquidity event. Insiders reportedly own around 95% of SpaceX shares. The public float is only around 5%. That means insiders are sitting on more than $1.6 TRILLION of paper wealth. And after the IPO, that paper wealth starts becoming real exit liquidity. Michael Burry already warned about this. He said SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could raise more money than the 300 biggest IPOs in 2000. And he is not just talking. He is already betting against the AI bubble with a massive short position in $PLTR and $NVDA. So now connect the dots. Rocket Lab dumped after the hype. AI stocks are already crowded. SpaceX IPO will pull liquidity from everything else. Stocks. Crypto. High beta tech. Everything retail is already holding. Most people will see the Elon hype. I see the liquidity drain. This could become one of the biggest insider cashout events in modern market history. I have studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I will post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨 WARNING: SPACEX IPO WILL BE A MASSIVE STORM FOR MARKETS!! Everyone thinks $SPCX IPO will be free money. But people thought the same about Rocket Lab. $RKLB went public in 2021 with massive space stock hype. Then it dumped 82.8% from its 2021 high to its 2022 low. Retail bought the future. Then reality hit. Now the same setup is coming again, but much bigger. SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12 at a $1.75 TRILLION to $2 TRILLION valuation. That would instantly make it one of the biggest companies in the US market. But here’s the problem. This is not just an IPO. This is a massive liquidity event. Insiders reportedly own around 95% of SpaceX shares. The public float is only around 5%. That means insiders are sitting on more than $1.6 TRILLION of paper wealth. And after the IPO, that paper wealth starts becoming real exit liquidity. Michael Burry already warned about this. He said SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could raise more money than the 300 biggest IPOs in 2000. And he is not just talking. He is already betting against the AI bubble with a massive short position in $PLTR and $NVDA. So now connect the dots. Rocket Lab dumped after the hype. AI stocks are already crowded. SpaceX IPO will pull liquidity from everything else. Stocks. Crypto. High beta tech. Everything retail is already holding. Most people will see the Elon hype. I see the liquidity drain. This could become one of the biggest insider cashout events in modern market history. I have studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I will post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

676,379 views • 3 months ago

THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE ENDS Here is how it all comes together Three companies are about to go public at the same time: - SpaceX - OpenAI - Anthropic Why does this matter? Because when they enter the market, they bring $200 billion of new supply all at once And here's the question nobody is asking Where does that $200 billion come from? Funds don't print cash. They sell what already won And you can probably guess what that means They start selling the winners they've been holding for years NVIDIA first. Then Micron. Then every AI name that ran When the leaders get sold - the index follows. No exceptions And we've seen this before Remember the COVID bubble Back then the same thing happened - hype IPOs flooded the market, funds rotated out of winners, and everything that ran the hardest came down the fastest The AI crowd is bigger this time. The exit is smaller Watch the IPO calendar. That's your only warning NOTIFS ON!

THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE ENDS Here is how it all comes together Three companies are about to go public at the same time: - SpaceX - OpenAI - Anthropic Why does this matter? Because when they enter the market, they bring $200 billion of new supply all at once And here's the question nobody is asking Where does that $200 billion come from? Funds don't print cash. They sell what already won And you can probably guess what that means They start selling the winners they've been holding for years NVIDIA first. Then Micron. Then every AI name that ran When the leaders get sold - the index follows. No exceptions And we've seen this before Remember the COVID bubble Back then the same thing happened - hype IPOs flooded the market, funds rotated out of winners, and everything that ran the hardest came down the fastest The AI crowd is bigger this time. The exit is smaller Watch the IPO calendar. That's your only warning NOTIFS ON!

bee🐝

51,298 views • 4 months ago