Meb Faber
@MebFaber • 143,953 subscribers
Founder:@cambriafunds,@theideafarm Pod: https://t.co/CvHIZ68yqU Books: https://t.co/jmbovZnN89 YT: https://t.co/yaJieAst11 Email: mf@cambriainvestments
Videos
Paul Kedrosky on the money flooding into data centers: "You have this incredible flow of money purchasing things that's increasingly divorced from what's going on inside the data centers." "From the standpoint of most of the lenders I talk to, there could be hide and go seek competitions going on inside the data centers, and they wouldn't give a f***." → Listen: → Watch:
Meb Faber69,764 views • 1 month ago
𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗿𝗵𝘆𝘁𝗵𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀? Finaeon's Bryan Taylor lays out a 30-year cycle running through the last century of US market returns: • 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲-𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀: 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, 2010s • 𝗣𝗼𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀: 1940s, 1970s, 2000s (two vicious bear markets) • 𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 → the 2040s look strong • 𝗦𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 → the 2030s do not bode well "If you follow that logic, the 2040s are going to provide great returns."
Meb Faber179,347 views • 3 months ago
.Robin Wigglesworth on the dark matter of finance: "Repo in the US is like a $12 trillion market that nobody really knows about and understands." "Even monetary economists I know who spend their life on this say that anybody spends too much time looking at short term overnight interest rates goes a little bit mad eventually." "You can't always see it. Most people ignore it, but it actually explains the motion of celestial bodies to a huge degree." Listen: Watch:
Meb Faber43,477 views • 27 days ago
𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁, 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆, 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲, 𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲. Paul Kedrosky argues this is the first bubble with all four elements at once. We get into: → Tokens as the fastest-deflating commodity in modern economic history → Why 80% annual price declines force the labs to grow 400% a year just to hold revenue flat → Why data center-related paper hitting 15-18% of the investment grade market should worry bond investors → The coming IPO wave that could out-issue every post-WWII IPO combined → Why he can't tell frontier models apart in a blind test, and neither can you → What it means that AI is now more than half of US GDP growth
Meb Faber57,914 views • 1 month ago
Tom Lee (Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com) says the U of Michigan sentiment survey has become "notoriously partisan" — and it's distorting how the market reads the data: → Around 25% of Democratic respondents say inflation is currently running over 100% right now. → Republicans currently read sentiment at 87, Dems at 32 (both flat year-over-year). → 51% of Democratic respondents are now below the survey's all-time "worst ever" reading of 47.6. → Median 1-year inflation expectations: Dems 4.8%, Republicans 1.0%. "University of Michigan went to no longer doing a phone survey. So it's online only...the response rate now is roughly 66% Democratic versus 33% Republican. That's not a fair breakdown of The US overall." "The Democratic responses for current conditions is essentially unchanged since November, and the Republican responses are unchanged since the summer. The only reason that overall number kept dropping is that it's reflecting a greater percentage of Democratic respondents."
Meb Faber157,500 views • 4 months ago
𝗠𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 MuddyWatersResearch, 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝗳𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴. Carson & I cover: • His AI thesis: ~15% of US knowledge workers displaced within 3 years, and what that does to 401(k) flows and the biggest index names • Why he may be the last short seller left in the game • Shorting SoFi and the rise of rabid retail mobs • Wirecard, the GRU asset, and the strangest fraud in modern markets • Credit spreads at record tights, and the second and third order trades he's positioning for • Why China is still "uninvestable"
Meb Faber86,540 views • 2 months ago
𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟭𝟬𝟬% 𝘁𝗼 𝗨.𝗦. 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀? "I definitely recommend young people go 100% in stocks on their investment portfolio." "But as you get older, you should be more risk averse actually, because you have left time to recover and your human capital gets diminished." -- Roger Ibbotson 🍎 Apple: 📺 YouTube:
Meb Faber24,667 views • 21 days ago
𝗧𝗼𝗺 𝗟𝗲𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝟱 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲: "JPMorgan makes $60 billion a year, the most profitable bank in the world, with 300,000 employees. Jane Street... just reported $10 billion in profit in the first quarter with 3,000 employees." "With one one-thousandth the number of employees, they're almost as profitable as JPMorgan. And they're making more money than the second, third, fourth largest banks in the world." "Tether, which is a crypto-native, completely digital-native bank selling a stablecoin, is going to make $15 billion this year, which would rank it as the eighth most profitable bank in the world with 300 employees." "What's happening with blockchain is what happened with digital media where there were the traditional studios and then there was Netflix, or with telecom where there was long distance and local and then there was cellular." Full episode with Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com: 🍎 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲: 📺 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗧𝘂𝗯𝗲:
Meb Faber117,563 views • 4 months ago
𝗢𝘄𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗻'𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗨.𝗦. 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. My guest today, Dave Iben, Chief Investment Officer, of Kopernik Global Investors, makes the case for each. We get into: • The money supply is up 111 times since he was born and the dollar has lost over 99% of its value • Why bubbles always form around the real deal, from canals and railroads to AI • Owning brand new Chinese nuclear reactors for less than it costs to build them • Ukrainian farmland companies trading at 80% to 90% discounts to Midwest land values • Taking South Korea to 19% of the portfolio after the president tried to seize control
Meb Faber12,410 views • 14 days ago
𝗝𝗶𝗺 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟯, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. My conversation with Jim covers: • Why AI is "one of the greatest bubbles of all time" • Expectations for the SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPOs • One-third of the ~$6 trillion in life insurance assets now sits in private credit • His grade for Jay Powell, and expectations for Kevin Warsh • U.S. debt went from $1 trillion in principal to $1 trillion in annual interest in a single career 0:00 Starts 0:39 Jim on the AI mania 12:23 The economic implications of inflation & deflation 19:56 Interest rates and private credit concerns 27:13 The Fed's inflation 'target' 41:10 How to fix the Federal Reserve 45:09 The history and role of gold in portfolios 54:34 Jim's most memorable investment 57:28 Historical periods to study
Meb Faber67,678 views • 3 months ago
My conversation today with Russell Napier is a timely one. Russell explains why he believes we’re going through the end of the existing global monetary system, why gold may be signaling what comes next history, and what lessons from financial history investors should think about today (technology doesn't always defeat inflation!). 🍎 Apple: 🍏 Spotify: 📺 YouTube:
Meb Faber120,795 views • 8 months ago
"Stocks always beat bonds in the long run." Joseph Moore (Joseph Moore) says the data disagrees. • For most of US history, regular people couldn't buy an index at all • Bonds beat stocks in the nineteenth century. They were tied until World War II For more on this topic, read Edward McQuarrie's paper:
Meb Faber34,590 views • 2 months ago
𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗕𝗼𝗯, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱'𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗿 Bob only bought at all-time highs: 1973, 1987, the dot-com peak, the GFC. He never sold. The IRR still came in around 8% a year. "He still ended up a millionaire because he just kept his money in stocks." - Ben Carlson 𝗟𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻: 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵:
Meb Faber51,209 views • 3 months ago
𝗧𝗵𝗲 "𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲" 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀: • The average up year for stocks is roughly +21% • In the last 100 years, there have been more 20%+ gain years than down years • The "typical" 8–12% annual return has actually landed in that range only 3–4 times • It's almost always meaningfully higher or meaningfully lower "That long-term average? It basically never happens." - Ben Carlson 𝗟𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻: 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵:
Meb Faber47,621 views • 3 months ago
𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗨𝗦 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟮𝟲 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 $𝟭𝟰,𝟳𝟱𝟭 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆. 𝗦𝗼 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵? My guest today, Roger Ibbotson, Yale Professor and creator of the SBBI data the entire industry quotes, built the numbers and has the answer. We get into: • Why young investors should be 100% stocks • Why calling a bubble right still won't help you time it • Why total returns were a radical idea when he started measuring them • Why the whole story of bonds since 1940 is one inflation round trip • His 2050 forecast: 7% nominal, 5.6% real, with a fifth percentile of zero Sponsor: Farmland LP
Meb Faber12,701 views • 21 days ago
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸. 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁. My guest today is Robin Wigglesworth (Robin Wigglesworth), editor of FT Alphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt, a thousand-year history of the market that sets the price of everything else. We get into: • An Austrian 100 year bond that lost 80%, while a defaulting Argentina paid off better • Why T-bills feel safe but can lose you 50%+ in real terms after inflation • Is private credit the next systemic blowup? • Why the $12 trillion repo market props up US treasuries with hidden leverage • How fixed income ETFs are making bonds trade like stocks • Dutch bonds written on goat skin that still pay interest 400 years later
Meb Faber15,703 views • 28 days ago
𝗠𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗕𝗼𝗯 𝗥𝗼𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗶, 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟯. Bob Robotti & I cover: • The reindustrialization of North America, powered by cheap natural gas • Why he's bullish on energy and homebuilders • The valuation gap he sees across the small cap universe • The case for a 7% 10 year if inflation runs 4-5%
Meb Faber35,611 views • 2 months ago