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𝗝𝗶𝗺 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟯, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. My conversation with Jim covers: • Why AI is "one of the greatest bubbles of all time" • Expectations for the SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPOs • One-third of the... ~$6 trillion in life insurance assets now sits in private credit • His grade for Jay Powell, and expectations for Kevin Warsh • U.S. debt went from $1 trillion in principal to $1 trillion in annual interest in a single career 0:00 Starts 0:39 Jim on the AI mania 12:23 The economic implications of inflation & deflation 19:56 Interest rates and private credit concerns 27:13 The Fed's inflation 'target' 41:10 How to fix the Federal Reserve 45:09 The history and role of gold in portfolios 54:34 Jim's most memorable investment 57:28 Historical periods to studyshow more

Meb Faber

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67,678 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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NEW: Elon Musk says he thinks he can reduce the deficit by $1 Trillion next year, says it will cause a cascading effect for Americans. “I think we can take a trillion dollars out of the out of the deficit next year.” “We have a $2 trillion deficit, which is a far in excess of economic growth. If we can get that deficit in half, from 2 trillion to 1 trillion, and we can get the economic growth to match that 1 trillion growth in the money supply, that means there will be no inflation.” “Interest rates will drop, credit card interest down, mortgage interest down, car payment interest down, and prices at the store stay the same.” “That is a great outcome for people and I think we can do it.”

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$10 trillion of federal debt comes due in the next 12 months. Bessent can buy back one. David Friedberg david friedberg walked the Treasury curve on The All-In Podcast. The 30-year sits at 5.2%. The government's average cost on its $40 trillion of debt is 3.4%. Every 1% move in rates costs 1.25% of GDP in extra interest every year. "He only has maximum, maximum, maximum, a trillion dollars he could use to buy debt," Friedberg said. "He's still got to go sell $10 trillion of treasuries in the next 12 months." The refinancing happens at today's rates, not the old ones, so the interest bill and the deficit climb together. His read on Druckenmiller's op-ed: cover for Bessent, pointing the deficit back at Congress. The full walk through the curve and what it does to the deficit: Source: All-In Podcast -

$10 trillion of federal debt comes due in the next 12 months. Bessent can buy back one. David Friedberg david friedberg walked the Treasury curve on The All-In Podcast. The 30-year sits at 5.2%. The government's average cost on its $40 trillion of debt is 3.4%. Every 1% move in rates costs 1.25% of GDP in extra interest every year. "He only has maximum, maximum, maximum, a trillion dollars he could use to buy debt," Friedberg said. "He's still got to go sell $10 trillion of treasuries in the next 12 months." The refinancing happens at today's rates, not the old ones, so the interest bill and the deficit climb together. His read on Druckenmiller's op-ed: cover for Bessent, pointing the deficit back at Congress. The full walk through the curve and what it does to the deficit: Source: All-In Podcast -

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I hadn’t planned to share this conversation, but it’s just too good to keep private. Jeff Booth ⚡️ gave me a brilliant, private Masterclass on inflation, deflation, and the problem Bitcoin solves. It completely transformed the way I think about these concepts, and I know it will do the same for you. This is a must-watch — one you’ll want to bookmark and share with friends. Timecodes: 00:00 I'm writing a book 1:54 Producitivity growth drives deflation 3:42 Explaining inflation 10:07 Natural state of free market is deflation 13:23 Why do some prices go up? 15:53 Why do prices drop? 18:26 History of inflation 28:45 Business cycles explained 32:54 Inflation is a lie 35:58 Examining inflation 38:48 Home prices and affordability 45:59 Bringing people out of poverty 46:39 Attacking the wealthy 52:31 US Dollar value 56:09 Inflation is wage deflation 58:22 Why don't companies pay more? 1:00:51 Quality of goods and services 1:03:41 Bitcoin as money 1:07:36 Does centralization mean confiscation? 1:09:04 Bitcoin and the US debt 1:09:49 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

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453,197 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

To celebrate 1 month since this MicroCapClub Club Conversation came out, I'm publishing it here. In this conversation, @HowardMarksBook shares his insights on investment strategies, the nature of risk, and the impact of market cycles. He discusses the origin of his company, Oak Tree, and elaborates on the concept of risk, emphasizing that it is subjective and tied to the possibility of undesirable outcomes. Marks also explores the upside of bubbles in technology, the implications of Brexit on the UK economy, and the current state of private credit. He provides advice on portfolio structuring, the importance of incentives in organizations, and personal reflections on success and happiness. Join MicroCapClub and unlock the ability to listen and participate live in these discussions - Chapters 00:00 The Origin of Oak Tree Capital 03:19 Understanding Risk 07:23 The Upside of Bubbles 11:29 Market Dynamics and the S&P 500 14:25 Microcap Stocks and Market Cycles 19:23 The Impact of Brexit on the UK Economy 22:50 Risks in Private Credit 25:41 Catching Falling Knives in Investing 31:35 Navigating Financial Crises 34:44 Investment Philosophy and Risk Management 39:03 Asset Allocation Strategies 41:49 Personal Insights and Success Factors 46:01 Quality of Life and Enjoyment 49:50 Building Effective Organizations 54:41 Reflections on Happiness and Legacy

To celebrate 1 month since this MicroCapClub Club Conversation came out, I'm publishing it here. In this conversation, @HowardMarksBook shares his insights on investment strategies, the nature of risk, and the impact of market cycles. He discusses the origin of his company, Oak Tree, and elaborates on the concept of risk, emphasizing that it is subjective and tied to the possibility of undesirable outcomes. Marks also explores the upside of bubbles in technology, the implications of Brexit on the UK economy, and the current state of private credit. He provides advice on portfolio structuring, the importance of incentives in organizations, and personal reflections on success and happiness. Join MicroCapClub and unlock the ability to listen and participate live in these discussions - Chapters 00:00 The Origin of Oak Tree Capital 03:19 Understanding Risk 07:23 The Upside of Bubbles 11:29 Market Dynamics and the S&P 500 14:25 Microcap Stocks and Market Cycles 19:23 The Impact of Brexit on the UK Economy 22:50 Risks in Private Credit 25:41 Catching Falling Knives in Investing 31:35 Navigating Financial Crises 34:44 Investment Philosophy and Risk Management 39:03 Asset Allocation Strategies 41:49 Personal Insights and Success Factors 46:01 Quality of Life and Enjoyment 49:50 Building Effective Organizations 54:41 Reflections on Happiness and Legacy

David Barbato

11,619 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

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Patrick OShaughnessy

1,221,946 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Check out the latest ep of opmpod with the great High Yield Harry. We covered a lot of ground from how private equity's and private credit's well documented issues are affecting careers and comp to how a boom in M&A and IPOs might make 2026 "The Year of the Banker" We also discussed all the great data Harry is collecting Buyside Hub. 00:00 Intro 00:45 Year of the Banker 03:38 Private Credit Redemptions 07:04 Retail Flows and Gating 10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring 13:17 Career Pyramid Reality 15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work 17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops 20:27 Operators and Real Economy 23:56 Agents and Human Edge 26:39 Who Gets Displaced? 31:46 Rates and Longer Holds 37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb 41:16 Choosing Your Career Track 47:22 Top Jobs and Trading 51:56 Closing Takeaways 54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs 57:03 Conclusion

Check out the latest ep of opmpod with the great High Yield Harry. We covered a lot of ground from how private equity's and private credit's well documented issues are affecting careers and comp to how a boom in M&A and IPOs might make 2026 "The Year of the Banker" We also discussed all the great data Harry is collecting Buyside Hub. 00:00 Intro 00:45 Year of the Banker 03:38 Private Credit Redemptions 07:04 Retail Flows and Gating 10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring 13:17 Career Pyramid Reality 15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work 17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops 20:27 Operators and Real Economy 23:56 Agents and Human Edge 26:39 Who Gets Displaced? 31:46 Rates and Longer Holds 37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb 41:16 Choosing Your Career Track 47:22 Top Jobs and Trading 51:56 Closing Takeaways 54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs 57:03 Conclusion

Max Wiethe

55,184 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

There are $2+ trillion worth of private AI companies that retail investors can't buy. One stock named VCX just gave them the door and went from $31 to $575 in five days... The craziest part? The assets inside it are only worth $19 per share. People are paying 30x the actual value just to own a piece of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX before they IPO. This is the most important story in markets right now. New episode breaking it all down: Josh Kale Ejaaz

There are $2+ trillion worth of private AI companies that retail investors can't buy. One stock named VCX just gave them the door and went from $31 to $575 in five days... The craziest part? The assets inside it are only worth $19 per share. People are paying 30x the actual value just to own a piece of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX before they IPO. This is the most important story in markets right now. New episode breaking it all down: Josh Kale Ejaaz

Limitless

17,880 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

YOU’RE INVESTED IN THE AI BUBBLE… Whether You Know It or Not | Jack Gamble | Free the Money Ep. 41 I sit down with Nobody Special host of Nobody Special Finance to break down what he believes to be the “biggest misallocation of capital in history,” following the biggest monetary expansion in history. Jack explains the circular financing behind the AI boom and why he believes OpenAI and Anthropic’s massive spending is supporting the entire bubble, despite both companies losing tens of billions of dollars. We also discuss NVIDIA, CoreWeave, private credit increasingly financing the AI data-center buildout, and the debt being sold to people’s Pensions, 401Ks and IRAs. Jack refers to this as “one giant crowded trade that everybody is in, whether they realize it or not.” We get into the parallels with 2008, attempts to turn future GPU compute revenue into asset-backed securities, problems Jack sees developing in private equity and life insurance, and the warning signs surrounding a potential OpenAI IPO. Finally, Jack argues that “the real economy is doing very poorly, even though speculative asset bubbles are inflating more and more,” and explains how the enormous borrowing needs of the AI buildout are beginning to compete with the U.S. government for capital, putting upward pressure on interest rates. Remember to subscribe and hit the bell “🔔” icon to get notifications. Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin Zano You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: Subscribe to Nobody Special Finance on Youtube: 0:00 Intro: Jack Gamble / Nobody Special Finance 2:19 NVIDIA’s Record Revenue & Accounting Red Flags 5:12 Circular Financing, Round-Tripping & CoreWeave 9:15 The Structure of the AI Bubble — NVIDIA, Hyperscalers, OpenAI & Anthropic 11:28 NVIDIA’s $500B AI Financing Push & Private Credit 13:28 S&P 500 Concentration Risk — How Exposed Are Investors to AI? 16:13 South Korea’s Bubble — the KOSPI, Samsung, & SK Hynix 18:42 Are OpenAI & Anthropic “Too Big to Fail”? 21:25 OpenAI Executive Exodus & IPO Warning Signs 23:48 Zano 25:36 AI vs. 2008 — Turning GPUs Into Asset-Backed Securities 27:38 Private Credit, Life Insurance & Retirement Money 30:19 Apollo, Athene & the Growing Web of Financial Risk 33:49 Is the U.S. Economy Actually Growing? AI Data Centers & GDP 35:55 AI Bubble Is Competing With the U.S. Government for Debt Issuance 37:28 Treasury Intervention, the Yen Carry Trade & Rising Rates 39:07 Treasury Buybacks & the Yield Curve 40:34 Gold, Silver, Bitcoin & the Return of the Debasement Trade 41:32 What Could Trigger the AI Bubble to Burst? 46:15 Book Recommendations

YOU’RE INVESTED IN THE AI BUBBLE… Whether You Know It or Not | Jack Gamble | Free the Money Ep. 41 I sit down with Nobody Special host of Nobody Special Finance to break down what he believes to be the “biggest misallocation of capital in history,” following the biggest monetary expansion in history. Jack explains the circular financing behind the AI boom and why he believes OpenAI and Anthropic’s massive spending is supporting the entire bubble, despite both companies losing tens of billions of dollars. We also discuss NVIDIA, CoreWeave, private credit increasingly financing the AI data-center buildout, and the debt being sold to people’s Pensions, 401Ks and IRAs. Jack refers to this as “one giant crowded trade that everybody is in, whether they realize it or not.” We get into the parallels with 2008, attempts to turn future GPU compute revenue into asset-backed securities, problems Jack sees developing in private equity and life insurance, and the warning signs surrounding a potential OpenAI IPO. Finally, Jack argues that “the real economy is doing very poorly, even though speculative asset bubbles are inflating more and more,” and explains how the enormous borrowing needs of the AI buildout are beginning to compete with the U.S. government for capital, putting upward pressure on interest rates. Remember to subscribe and hit the bell “🔔” icon to get notifications. Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin Zano You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: Subscribe to Nobody Special Finance on Youtube: 0:00 Intro: Jack Gamble / Nobody Special Finance 2:19 NVIDIA’s Record Revenue & Accounting Red Flags 5:12 Circular Financing, Round-Tripping & CoreWeave 9:15 The Structure of the AI Bubble — NVIDIA, Hyperscalers, OpenAI & Anthropic 11:28 NVIDIA’s $500B AI Financing Push & Private Credit 13:28 S&P 500 Concentration Risk — How Exposed Are Investors to AI? 16:13 South Korea’s Bubble — the KOSPI, Samsung, & SK Hynix 18:42 Are OpenAI & Anthropic “Too Big to Fail”? 21:25 OpenAI Executive Exodus & IPO Warning Signs 23:48 Zano 25:36 AI vs. 2008 — Turning GPUs Into Asset-Backed Securities 27:38 Private Credit, Life Insurance & Retirement Money 30:19 Apollo, Athene & the Growing Web of Financial Risk 33:49 Is the U.S. Economy Actually Growing? AI Data Centers & GDP 35:55 AI Bubble Is Competing With the U.S. Government for Debt Issuance 37:28 Treasury Intervention, the Yen Carry Trade & Rising Rates 39:07 Treasury Buybacks & the Yield Curve 40:34 Gold, Silver, Bitcoin & the Return of the Debasement Trade 41:32 What Could Trigger the AI Bubble to Burst? 46:15 Book Recommendations

Bri Teresi

65,870 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

While everyone's staring at #Bitcoin, Matt Hougan says four other assets are quietly leading this entire bull market. Matt Hougan (Matt Hougan) is CIO of Bitwise, one of the largest crypto asset managers in the world. His frame for what's happening is bigger than a cycle: The addressable market for DeFi protocols just grew 100x. From competing inside a $2 trillion crypto market to taking a shot at the $100 trillion stock market and the $300 trillion bond market. And the race for that prize is on: "$HYPE making its case to be chiseled into the Mount Rushmore. $ZEC is arguing that privacy should be on the Mount Rushmore. $VVV is arguing that real world AI should be on the Mount Rushmore." We cover: - The four assets he sees winning this bull market, and why Bitcoin is only part of the story - Why traditional investors who move into the tokenized world never go back - Why exchanges keep getting disrupted every year and a half - The Mount Rushmore of crypto: who's carved in, who's campaigning - Bitcoin as the debasement hedge, tokenization as the second megatrend running alongside it Thanks to OKX for being today’s sponsor of the show! Timestamps: 00:55 - The Bull Market Awakening 03:03 - Bridging TradFi And Blockchain 05:59 - The Evolution Of DeFi 08:55 - The Future Of Trading 12:13 - Institutional Interest And Regulation 14:54 - The Changing Exchange Landscape 18:10 - The Future Of ETFs 26:57 - Tokenization's Next Phase 28:40 - Layer One Expectations 30:10 - New Protocols And DeFi Bets 32:13 - Social Trading And FOMO 34:38 - Tokenized Stocks Explained 36:01 - The Mount Rushmore Of Crypto 38:57 - Fixing Tokenomics 41:21 - Bitcoin As An Inflation Hedge 45:12 - The Two Mega Trends 47:50 - AI's Role In Crypto

While everyone's staring at #Bitcoin, Matt Hougan says four other assets are quietly leading this entire bull market. Matt Hougan (Matt Hougan) is CIO of Bitwise, one of the largest crypto asset managers in the world. His frame for what's happening is bigger than a cycle: The addressable market for DeFi protocols just grew 100x. From competing inside a $2 trillion crypto market to taking a shot at the $100 trillion stock market and the $300 trillion bond market. And the race for that prize is on: "$HYPE making its case to be chiseled into the Mount Rushmore. $ZEC is arguing that privacy should be on the Mount Rushmore. $VVV is arguing that real world AI should be on the Mount Rushmore." We cover: - The four assets he sees winning this bull market, and why Bitcoin is only part of the story - Why traditional investors who move into the tokenized world never go back - Why exchanges keep getting disrupted every year and a half - The Mount Rushmore of crypto: who's carved in, who's campaigning - Bitcoin as the debasement hedge, tokenization as the second megatrend running alongside it Thanks to OKX for being today’s sponsor of the show! Timestamps: 00:55 - The Bull Market Awakening 03:03 - Bridging TradFi And Blockchain 05:59 - The Evolution Of DeFi 08:55 - The Future Of Trading 12:13 - Institutional Interest And Regulation 14:54 - The Changing Exchange Landscape 18:10 - The Future Of ETFs 26:57 - Tokenization's Next Phase 28:40 - Layer One Expectations 30:10 - New Protocols And DeFi Bets 32:13 - Social Trading And FOMO 34:38 - Tokenized Stocks Explained 36:01 - The Mount Rushmore Of Crypto 38:57 - Fixing Tokenomics 41:21 - Bitcoin As An Inflation Hedge 45:12 - The Two Mega Trends 47:50 - AI's Role In Crypto

Michaël van de Poppe

204,632 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

Last episode: Henrik Zeberg predicts that #Bitcoin crashes 90%. This episode, one of the world's leading liquidity experts explains why the opposite is structurally locked in. "The West is bust, and the world is changed." Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) founded CrossBorder Capital and has spent decades tracking one variable: global liquidity. His argument is that governments have quietly stopped borrowing the normal way, and started printing without calling it printing: "Governments are issuing three month Treasury bills, and those Treasury bills are like printing money." Long-term debt has become too expensive to issue in a world of higher yields. So everything shifts to the short end, the debt gets rolled instead of repaid, and monetary inflation becomes the release valve. Not a policy choice. A structural one. And his model puts a number on what that means: for every 10% increase in global liquidity, Bitcoin's price has historically doubled. We cover: - Why "the West is bust", and why that makes printinginevitable, not optional - The debt refinancing wall: why governments can't issue real long-term debt anymore - His liquidity model, and the Bitcoin relationship inside it - Why monetary inflation quietly destroys wealth that isn't in the right assets - Why he says most people still have close to zero allocation to the one asset built for this environment - Aging demographics, AI, and the future of bonds Thanks to OKX for being sponsor of todays show! Timestamps: 00:50 - The West Is Bust 03:01 - Debt Refinancing Explained 06:14 - Causes Of Monetary Inflation 09:05 - The Debt Liquidity Cycle 12:14 - Government Spending And Rates 14:50 - Aging Demographics And Policy 17:47 - Central Banks In A Changing Economy 21:04 - Assets In High Inflation 23:56 - Rate And Growth Projections 29:44 - Debt And Inflation On Assets 35:00 - Financial Crises And Liquidity 40:21 - Portfolio Strategy In Volatility 45:32 - AI And Interest Rates 51:23 - The Future Of Bonds

Last episode: Henrik Zeberg predicts that #Bitcoin crashes 90%. This episode, one of the world's leading liquidity experts explains why the opposite is structurally locked in. "The West is bust, and the world is changed." Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) founded CrossBorder Capital and has spent decades tracking one variable: global liquidity. His argument is that governments have quietly stopped borrowing the normal way, and started printing without calling it printing: "Governments are issuing three month Treasury bills, and those Treasury bills are like printing money." Long-term debt has become too expensive to issue in a world of higher yields. So everything shifts to the short end, the debt gets rolled instead of repaid, and monetary inflation becomes the release valve. Not a policy choice. A structural one. And his model puts a number on what that means: for every 10% increase in global liquidity, Bitcoin's price has historically doubled. We cover: - Why "the West is bust", and why that makes printinginevitable, not optional - The debt refinancing wall: why governments can't issue real long-term debt anymore - His liquidity model, and the Bitcoin relationship inside it - Why monetary inflation quietly destroys wealth that isn't in the right assets - Why he says most people still have close to zero allocation to the one asset built for this environment - Aging demographics, AI, and the future of bonds Thanks to OKX for being sponsor of todays show! Timestamps: 00:50 - The West Is Bust 03:01 - Debt Refinancing Explained 06:14 - Causes Of Monetary Inflation 09:05 - The Debt Liquidity Cycle 12:14 - Government Spending And Rates 14:50 - Aging Demographics And Policy 17:47 - Central Banks In A Changing Economy 21:04 - Assets In High Inflation 23:56 - Rate And Growth Projections 29:44 - Debt And Inflation On Assets 35:00 - Financial Crises And Liquidity 40:21 - Portfolio Strategy In Volatility 45:32 - AI And Interest Rates 51:23 - The Future Of Bonds

Michaël van de Poppe

174,070 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen