Movez

@0xMovez • 32,322 subscribers

Content creator | AI researcher & agentic builder | @zscdao

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The best Polymarket Quant bot for copy-trading with a 99.3% win rate. backtested strategy on 72M Polymarket/Kalshi trades to hit +$805K PnL on 27,000 predictions. bot doesn't gamble - it uses math and statistics in its algo to consistently hit 99% win rate. his algo decoded: 1. Mispricing formula based on 72M trades data, traders constantly overpay for cheap contracts (0.1¢–50¢) most of the edge sits in (80¢-99¢) contracts - that's the range where the bot mostly trades • formula: δ = actual win rate - implied probability bot applies this to every trade to find the edge. // 2. Expected value calculation EV tells you whether a bet is worth taking, regardless of the outcome of any single trade. • formula: EV = (P win × Payout) - (P lose × Cost) bot calculates it to understand if the trade is worth the risk. // 3. Kelly Criterion sizing most powerful position sizing formula ever discovered for gambling, trading and prediction markets it tells the algo what % of your portfolio to size into each bet to win long term. • formula: f* = (p * b - q) / b mispricing found → EV calced → kelly sizing → enter profile: start copy trading the bot with as little as $10 using Ares: 2 more formulas behind its algo revealed in the article below ↓

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Weather trading Clawdbots making thousands $ on Polymarket by simple arbitrage. Scanning weather markets every 2 mins and comparing data to NOAA forecast for location/date If they see undervalued temperature bucket ( Run your clawdbot in 5 simple steps: • install clawdbot on mac/pc using oneliner code • connect clawdbot with ChatGPT 5.2 & TG bot • create Simmer SDK account & fund wallet • install simmer { weather trader } skills • send your clawdbot right { configuration } > Weather clawdbot configuration: • entry threshold: 0.45¢ • max position: $5.00 • locations: NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas • max trades/run: 5 • safeguards: Enabled • trend detection: Enabled • scan run: every 2 minutes Start testing with small sum $2-5 to calibrate your Clawdbot and give it data for analysis. Scale it when you see $20-50 of consistent revenue for several days. Use my detailed article to run you first weather clawdbot.

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MIT math-professor quit university and turned $300 → $66K on Polymarket weather markets. His thesis was: "ML models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based ones." He built his own model that predicts super-rare weather events { 0.01¢ - 0.1¢ } The result is crazy: 24$ → 12,398$ 13$ → 6,850$ 11$ → 5,752$ He trades a wide range of regions from Chicago to Ankara only thing that matters is 0.01¢ - 0.1¢ range. Start copy-trading his ML model using Kreo: Pinned his research and wallet below ↓

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$Polymarket self-calibrating weather-trading Python bot (Full Guide) run the smartest weather-trading bot with 0 coding knowledge after reading this article: what's inside: > github with full Python code > trading 20 cities & 4 continents > 3 forecast sources {ECMWF, HRRR, METAR} > EV+ automatic calculation for each trade > auto-sizing based on the Kelly Criterion > full-data storage {forecast, trade, resolution} > self-calibration based on snapshots & data logic of the bot: • get 3 type of forecasts from Open-Meteo API • compare station data to 1h forecasts to get real data • calculate +EV per $1 using the {min_ev} parameter • detemine size based on Kelly Criterion • run a 1000$ test-simulation using the strategy • snapshot each trade, forecast, and resultion • auto-calibrates every 30 forecasts per city This bot won't print you $500 next day after setup, but it will give you a sandbox for testing own strategies.$

Polymarket self-calibrating weather-trading Python bot (Full Guide) run the smartest weather-trading bot with 0 coding knowledge after reading this article: what's inside: > github with full Python code > trading 20 cities & 4 continents > 3 forecast sources {ECMWF, HRRR, METAR} > EV+ automatic calculation for each trade > auto-sizing based on the Kelly Criterion > full-data storage {forecast, trade, resolution} > self-calibration based on snapshots & data logic of the bot: • get 3 type of forecasts from Open-Meteo API • compare station data to 1h forecasts to get real data • calculate +EV per $1 using the {min_ev} parameter • detemine size based on Kelly Criterion • run a 1000$ test-simulation using the strategy • snapshot each trade, forecast, and resultion • auto-calibrates every 30 forecasts per city This bot won't print you $500 next day after setup, but it will give you a sandbox for testing own strategies.

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Bot turned $300 → $101K in 2 months on Polymarket weather markets scanning forecasts across 20 cities via WeatherAPI hunting ultra-rare weather events {0.01¢ -0.1¢} I found a fully working, self-calibrating Python bot running this exact strategy bots results are crazy: 25$ → 12,452$ 16$ → 8,106$ 11$ → 5,752$ bot uses (ECMWF, HRRR, METAR) forecast, calculates EV, sizes positions with Kelly, and self-calibrates. how to set-up: • install python 3.10 on PC/Mac • get free weather API from { visualcrossing .com } • set polymarket account and get API in /profile • git clone { github .com/alteregoeth-ai/weatherbot } • setup config .json using article below • run $1,000 dry test → then go live with real USDC • give it 100+ trades to self-calibrate for more accurate results add paid APIs like OpenWeather, Tomorrow .io, OpenMeteo bot profile:

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MIT student failed YCombinator pitch, so he turned $250→ $66K on Polymarket weather markets to fund his startup. His pitch topic was: "Weather forecasting with AI probabilistic models." His custom model forecasts super-rare weather events {0.01¢ - 0.1¢} MVP pitch was crazy: 23$ → 12,398$ 14$ → 6,850$ 9$ → 4,671$ His model trades a wide range of regions from Atlanta to Ankara only thing that matters is 0.01¢ - 0.1¢ range. his profile: Start copy-trading his ML model using Kreo: Pinned his research and wallet below ↓

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This Quant bot turned $1.4K → $203K in 3 months using a self-trained ML model i traced his 55K predictions → uploaded into Codex 5.5 → connected Hermes agent installed it on a VPS + connected Binance + Synth ML models API 3 days → 343% ROI run trading agent in 5 steps: • rent a VPS on Hetzner - $5.99 • install Hermes CLI using one-liner code - free • connect Codex 5.5 + TG bot + Polymarket API • provide Synth Data API's for crypto predictions • sent Hermes step-by-step prompts from article start small 1-2$ give Hermes least {50-100} trades to build self-learning skills based on Synth ML models self-learning agent + crypto predictions models = best combination for building algo-trading setup bot profile: s tart copy-trading it with even with $5 using Ares: read full article below to build your first trading agent ↓

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Polymarket Weather Clawbots making thousands $ monthly on simple arbitrage Aggregate forecasts API from: NOAA, Weatherbit, Tomorrowio & compare to Polymarket prices every 2-min When they see undervalued temperature bucket ( Run weather trading clawdbot on VPS for 12,2$: • visit { contabo. com/en/openclaw-hosting } and choose Cloud VPS 20 ~ $7.2 • install OpenClaw v2026.2.6 by one-liner code ~ $0 • connect Claude Opus 4.6 API to Clawdbot ~ $5 • connect TG bot for controlling Clawdbot ~ $0 • install Simmer SDK { weather trader } skill ~ $0 • send configuration to your clawdbot // > Weather clawdbot configuration: • entry threshold: 0.70¢ • max position: $5.00 • locations: NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas • max trades/run: 5 • safeguards: Enabled • trend detection: Enabled • scan run: every 2 minutes Test with small sum $2-5 to calibrate your Clawdbot and give it data for analysis or test SIM token. Scale it when you see >$50 of consistent revenue for several days.

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Anthropic dev turned $300 → $91K using upcoming Claude Mythos model on Polymarket weather markets No code. All he did is sent one MIT research: "Weather forecasting using ML models" Mythos model started to predict super-rare weather events {0.01¢ - 0.1¢} The result is crazy: 25$ → 12,452$ 16$ → 8,106$ 13$ → 6,851$ model trades a wide range of regions from Tokyo to Ankara only thing that matters is 0.01¢ - 0.1¢ range. bot profile: Pinned research that was sent as a prompt below ↓

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Polymarket 5-min markets arbitrage with Clawdbot powered by Chainlink API Polymarket uses Chainlink data for 5-min markets resolution. But sometimes the terminal instant lag vs Chainlink API. Exploit this inefficiency using a simple Clawdbot: • install Clawdbot using: { curl -fsSL https: //openclaw.ai/install.sh } • connect it to Claude Opus 4.6 and TG bot in CLI. • create an account on { simmer } → set up wallet. • install the { fast loop trading skill } by simmer • connect Chainlink API to your Clawdbot • change Binance data price for Chainlink API // How its works: • fetches BTC price momentum from Chainlink API • discovers active 5-min fast markets via Gamma API • compares API momentum against market odds • trades when divergence exceeds threshold - dry-run by default // Configuration for clawdbot: • asset: BTC • entry threshold: 0.05 (min divergence from 50¢) • min momentum: 0.5% (min price move) • max position: $5.00 • signal source: chainlink api • lookback: 5 minutes • Min time left: 60s • Volume weighting: enable When Clawdbot finds a divergence, it apes the opportunity. This is simple arbitrage between Chainlink API and Polymarket prices.

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Spotify's Chief Architect just showed how they ship 4,5K deployments /day with Claude at Anthropic stage 27-minutes. free. By #1 music app dev "More than 99% of our engineers use AI coding tools. Adoption took off after Opus 4.5" Worth more than any $500 vibe-coding course.

This 30-min workshop by the creator of Claude Code will teach you more about vibe-coding than 100 YouTube video guides. Bookmark it &amp; give it 30 minutes today. This video will change the way you use Claude forever.

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading. This 1-hour MIT lecture on probability gives you the same insights quants get paid $60K/month for. Bookmark &amp; watch today. Then read the article below.

Google Cloud AI engineer just showed how they go from idea to deployed app at Google in 30-minutes using Claude. 26-minutes. free. by Google AI team. one person + Claude + Google Cloud = a full engineering org running on a laptop. worth more than any $500 vibe-coding course.

This 1 hour lecture on "Probability Theory" from MIT will teach you more about prediction markets than 2 month internship at at a Wall Street Quant firm. Bookmark this & give it 1 hour today, no matter what. It’s the most productive start you can give your week. Then read post below.

This 1 hour Stanford lecture on "Sports betting math" by founder of $160M sports platform, reveal the math used by betting platforms to print millions on sports. Bookmark this & give it 1 hour today, no matter what. It’s the most productive start you can give your week. Then read post below.

This 30-min workshop by the creator of Claude Code will teach you more about vibe-coding than 100 YouTube video guides. Bookmark it & give it 30 minutes today. This video will change the way you use Claude forever.

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading. This 1-hour MIT lecture on probability gives you the same insights quants get paid $60K/month for. Bookmark & watch today. Then read the article below.