Aaron Dishner
@MooninPapa • 18,688 subscribers
Teaching. Trading. TBO. Crypto courses at The Better Traders. Official links below👇
Videos
BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching. TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move. My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K 08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets 13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance 18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices 23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium 25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset 28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV 31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more 37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE 41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up
Aaron Dishner63,224 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
BTC has now wicked above the same resistance three times in five days, and that keeps weakening the level. I still think the most likely short-term move is a push toward the CME gap at $81,145, but I do not like the risk to reward for longs up here. If my bigger bearish thesis is right, this rally is setting up a much better short later, not a chase long now. That bigger picture still matters more to me. April has already done the heavy lifting, while the historical setup for May and June still points to deeper downside and much bigger volatility. If that pattern keeps tracking, BTC could still be setting up for a much harder drop over the next two months. ETH still looks weaker than BTC, BTC dominance keeps pressing higher, and TOTALES is holding up better than the smaller alt indexes. But TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 are both flashing more bearish reversal pressure underneath, so I still think altcoins are vulnerable even if some charts are bouncing for now. In TradFi, DXY and USDJPY both still look capable of pushing higher, ES finally cooled off after a strong streak, the VIX is trying to turn, and the Nikkei still looks strong but not invincible. On the watchlist, I am paying closest attention to XMR, XLM, CHZ, STRK, H, HYPE, TAO, XRP, RENDER, and SOL.
Aaron Dishner69,553 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Bitcoin attempted a bounce on Sunday, wicking 5.8% up to 64,234, but the move stalled directly at the TBO line that flipped from support to resistance after Friday's break below 60,000. In today's update, I explain why this still looks more like a dead cat bounce than a real reversal: Friday's 3.3 billion volume was far below the capitulation levels I want to see at prior cycle lows, Sunday did not print a bullish engulfing candle, and the same daily RSI reset pattern showed up on May 30th at 73K right before a 20% collapse followed. I also walk through the TradFi pressure that hit markets on Friday, including the DXY surge, S&P futures down 2.9%, the VIX spiking 39%, and gold dropping 3.3% in the same session. The Japanese yen is drifting back toward dangerous territory near 160.34, the Nikkei opened Monday already down 3.7%, and stablecoin dominance nearly tagged 13% before pulling back on the Sunday bounce. If stablecoin dominance and BTC dominance both keep pushing higher, I expect others dominance and alts to take the bigger hit. I finish with a full coin review across my picks list, including BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC, BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN, followed by bearish reads on SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ, TON, NEAR, TRUMP, and VVV. Viewer picks include AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, and CRO, with stock coverage wrapping on PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, and RDW. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC dead cat bounce and TBO resistance 03:24 Daily RSI reset and what it actually signals 06:44 Dead cat bounce explained and BTC downside targets 12:08 Ethereum and stablecoin dominance breakdown 16:11 TradFi: DXY, Euro, Yen, S&P Futures, VIX 19:09 Oil, Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium 27:59 Aaron's picks: BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC 33:48 BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN 37:30 Bearish alts: SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ 40:17 TON, NEAR, TRUMP, VIRTUALS, and VVV 43:38 Viewer picks: AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, CRO 45:55 Stock picks: PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, RDW
Aaron Dishner38,004 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high at $125k- but if you haven't noticed, ALTs aren't pumping big time. Why is that? Simple: Bitcoin Dominance is increasing (just as expected). But when BTC.D peaks at about 61%, I expect it to fall and give way to the next ALT rally. LOTS of coins to watch, so pay attention 👇
Aaron Dishner110,371 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
BTC had a great push up above $114k yesterday, only to lose it all on more tariff and China news. BUT! The good news is that BTC's upper wick has "paved the way" for the price to revisit yesterday's highs today! I still expect BTC to make its way up to $130k by the end of this month. Combined stablecoin dominance pushed higher yesterday on the pullback, but it also printed a second TBO Close Long on the 4h time frame- just like it did preceding every other pullback (which led to a rally for BTC and ALTs!). Gold had a HUGE drop of -5% yesterday- the biggest since 2020. But is Gold's sell-off going to fuel BTC's pump? I don't think so, but you'll have to watch to know why. LOTS of ALTs printed more TBO Close Shorts yesterday: ADA, HYPE, BCH, SUI, HBAR, SHIB, CRO, ETC, ALGO, PENGU, RENDER, IMX, SPX6900, FTN and SAROS. These are early bullish reversal warnings, and many charts are seeing their second printed this week. 2Z, FLOKI, 0G and VSN all have new TBT Bullish Divergences that should be watched. And I personally think FLOKI will start pushing back higher and pumping again so long as Elon keeps mentioning it, like he did in 2020 with DOGE. BNB, MNT, TWT and BORG printed TBO Close Longs on yesterday's daily candle closes- a bearish reversal warning. PUMP and DASH are still worth watching and paying attention to.
Aaron Dishner102,089 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
Bitcoin dropped to $93k yesterday and also printed a second TBO Breakdown, which is a bearish explosive prediction symbol from the Trending Breakout indicator. It's interesting to see BTC bounce from this level, but the signs are clear on multiple time frames that BTC is looking more and more bearish. ETH also confirmed its first TBO Breakdown yesterday on its daily close. Not to mention it printed a TBO Close Long on the weekly candle too. Now speaking of TBO Close Longs on the weekly, one possible outcome for these signals is that we get an oversold bounce for both BTC and ETH up to the weekly TBO Fast lines. If this happens, the market will feel ECSTATIC for a short period, but given how strong bearish the charts are, there is a strong chance that it will only be a temporary bounce before we see more pain to the downside. To make matters worse, combined stablecoin dominance printed its third TBO Breakout on the daily- the final symbol we'll see for the Breakout cluster. To make matters worse here, weekly RSI is above 75, which means we're more likely to see bullish continuation for this chart- which means more pain for ALTs (bot not all of them). STRK, XMR, ASTER and MORPHO have valid TBO Breakouts on their 4h and daily charts, which means we could see these chart have more explosive upside continuation. LTC, PI and BANANAS31 have new TBO Close Shorts on the daily time frame, which are early bullish reversal signals. Yes, I'm still expecting LTC to pump. The market isn't over until LTC (the fat lady) sings/pumps. ZEC, DASH, NIBI and RESOLV remain strong bullish with the TBO, making these good candidates for further upside continuation. SOL printed a third and final TBO Breakdown on its daily chart over the weekend, and ADA printed a TBO Breakdown Cluster on its 4h chart. These signals warn us of potential explosive downside continuation. TEL, XPL and MYX are worth watching this week due to irregular Volume and price action.
Aaron Dishner62,656 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce
Hey guys, welcome back. BTC closed inside of the TBO cloud, up 1.66% on Friday, my third green day in a row, the first close inside since it fell out back on May 26. My macro trend is still bearish since all four TBO lines point down, but I'm expecting Bitcoin to stay bullish through July after catching a bullish OBV cross above the 21SMA on Thursday. I'm watching for this week's candle to close above last week's high at 65,622, which is a tall order, but Bitcoin's RSI at 59.69 tells me there's still room to run before overbought. Ethereum had a fantastic day too, closing up 3.3% and shooting up 14% since Wednesday, with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly and a bullish RSI reset that I like a lot, targeting around 2,080. Solana dropped another 1.9% and remains in bearish consolidation, which I actually see as healthy given Bitcoin dominance staying bearish, since that's keeping alts strong. My total altcoin cap chart closed inside the cloud with a bullish OBV cross too, which I think marks the start of a regime shift, though I'm still telling anyone on a DCA strategy to keep taking profits since we're in a macro bear market overall. On the TradFi side, I saw a bearish TBO reversal print on Thursday plus a wick into the cloud, so I'm on the fence there, watching the Dixie closely since a break above 102 would be real trouble. The Nikkei and KOSPI both bounced, oil stayed oversold for a tenth straight bar, and gold and silver both printed TBO reversal signs that I'm watching for a tag of the fast line before I'd consider taking profit or flipping short. For my picks, I bought Bitcoin cash on its RSI reset, I'm watching Solana, Farcoin, and Whiff for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho and Aerodrome as showing early bearish reversal signs worth watching this weekend. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin closes inside the TBO cloud 02:46 Ethereum strength and RSI room 04:53 Bitcoin dominance and altcoin breadth 06:53 TradFi setup, Dixie, and USDJPY 09:27 Nikkei, KOSPI, oil, gold, and silver 12:01 Better Traders resources and bot trading 14:17 Kraken, prop trading, Phemex, and AFX 16:20 Bitcoin Cash, Solana, and TBO close shorts 18:30 XRP, SUI, PEPE, VVV, and LAB warnings 20:56 XLM, ALLO, GWEI, FAI, and Fetch 23:21 Micron and MELI pullback setups
Aaron Dishner11,627 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
WOW! Bitcoin not only broke above overhead resistance in our bull flag, it also took out the next three resistance fan levels! This is a HUGE BULLISH signal for Bitcoin and crypto. Uptober is definitely here! Now, the reality of this move is that the combined stablecoin dominance chart is at critical short term support. If BTC has a slight pullback today, that will cause stablecoin dominance to bounce off of support, which will validate that level of support and cause a wider market pullback (even though it should just be minor). Secondly, the TOTALES daily chart is also right at resistance today. If it can break ABOVE resistance, then we'll see combined stablecoin dominance DROP LOWER, which is EXACTLY what we want to see in order for more bullish continuation. Lots of charts are having incredible TBO Breakouts right now, showing me that there is more bullish explosive upside continuation possible for IMX, ZEC, SNX and FLR. ADA, APT, QNT and HNT all have valid TBO Close Shorts, which are my FAVORITE bullish reversal signals. BCH, LTC, AAVE, MNT, XDC and PUMP all look massively bullish to me. NEAR and SOL both "closed" their TBO Close Longs, but I'm still avoiding NEAR for now. ALPINE had a MASSIVE pump and dump, losing over 70% yesterday 💀 BLUE, DASH, XRP, XLM, SUI, SHIB, XMR, SPX6900 and S are all worth watching closely today too. But my main concern lies with the fact that several "OG" coins like DASH, ZEC, LTC and XMR are pumping- which is typically a sign that we're at the start of an ALT rally. While this is great news, I'm cautiously watching these signs, and so should you!
Aaron Dishner64,684 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
Bitcoin opened July with a fresh flush into the 57K area, but I am still treating this as a possible short-term bounce month rather than a clean new bull leg. July has historically been strong for Bitcoin in bottom-year contexts, the Better Crypto Calendar just nailed the ugly June close, and BTC/ETH are showing the kind of oversold and divergence conditions that can produce a relief rally. The key warning is that August and September are historically much rougher, so if July gives us upside, I want profits protected instead of assuming the move lasts forever. The macro backdrop is still messy. DXY remains strong bullish, S&P futures and the major equity indexes are trying to bounce, and the Japanese yen is the big risk signal today with USD/JPY pushing into levels not seen since the 1980s. That makes the title question important: Bitcoin can bounce this July, but a weak yen, possible intervention, and unstable TradFi signals mean I do not want to ignore the broader pressure. In the watchlist section I cover my crypto picks, your crypto picks, and the requested stock names with the same theme running through most of them: July can create sharp oversold bounces, but many charts are still bearish or only tactical long setups. I am looking for fast-line reactions, oversold resets, DCA-style opportunities, and places to scale out quickly if the bounce shows up, especially with August and September still sitting in the background. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin opens July with a flush and seasonality setup 03:02 Why August and September still matter 06:18 ETH, stablecoin dominance, and BTC dominance 10:41 DXY, weak yen, and TradFi warning signs 13:14 S&P futures, stocks, oil, gold, and metals 17:30 Better Traders Club, TBO, Journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:36 My picks: LIT, SOL, AAVE, WIF, MORPHO, DEXE, and bearish updates 31:18 Your picks: ACN, VIRTUAL, HYPE, CRO, JTO, GRASS, PUMP, NAORIS, and FLUX 38:22 Stock picks: Exxon Mobil, Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, FuelCell, Salesforce, Robinhood, and Netflix 43:51 Bitcoin lottery miner video preview
Aaron Dishner12,100 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap
Aaron Dishner10,267 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Bitcoin closed up 2.39% on July 1st and I watched TBO support drop from 62k down to 57k after a surprising low. It came close to a massive bullish engulfing candle, wick to wick BTC was up 6%, but it didn't close above Tuesday's open at 60,276 so the reversal isn't confirmed yet. RSI is showing me clear bullish divergence with higher lows since June 10th even as price made lower lows, volume exceeded the moving average at 1.5 billion, and on balance volume is flattening out just like it did before the last major reversal, so I still believe we're close to a July bounce even though this remains a bear market. Ethereum bounced a similar 2.39% with its own bullish divergence cluster and a closed short on the four hour, though volume and on balance volume still need to confirm. I also went through stablecoin dominance, Bitcoin dominance, and Solana dominance, plus DXY and USDJPY which are both flashing dangerously overbought conditions eerily similar to July 2024 right before Bank of Japan intervention. On the macro side I covered S&P futures, the Fear and Greed Index closing its third TBO close long as a warning to take profit, oil grinding down toward 68 to fill its gap, and gold and silver both showing early bullish RSI resets inside otherwise bearish structures. For my picks I walked through a long list of oversold setups I like for a July bounce including Solana, Litecoin, Crow, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Sui, Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Vechain, Monad, and Worldcoin, along with take profit zones on Morpho and Curve. I also flagged charts I'm more cautious on like Velvet and Adam despite bullish RSI resets, shared my Kraken short trade recap on Bitcoin, and closed out with stock picks including Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, and SEI, plus a reminder that my deeper explainer video on all of this drops Sunday. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin recap and near bullish engulfing candle 02:10 RSI bullish divergence and on balance volume setup 04:30 Ethereum bounce and four hour close short 06:15 Stablecoin, Bitcoin, and Solana dominance 08:00 DXY and USDJPY overbought warning signs 10:20 S&P futures, Fear and Greed Index, oil, gold and silver 13:40 Kraken trade recap and Better Traders Club 16:30 Altcoin picks: Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Sui 19:45 Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Morpho, Curve profit zones 22:30 Caution charts: Velvet and Adam 25:00 Worldcoin, Fartcoin, and oversold plays 27:40 Stock picks: Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, SEI
Aaron Dishner11,176 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
BTC didn't put in a higher high, but RSI finally flipped overbought on Sunday. More importantly, however, combined stablecoin dominance printed a major reversal signal on last week's candle close. This alone is making me second guess crypto- if it weren't for the growing bearish sentiment from TradFi... Lots to unpack today.
Aaron Dishner31,848 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
BTC just confirmed the bearish divergence I have been waiting for, and for me that changes the whole map. With BTC now joining the TOTALES warning, I am no longer looking at this as a normal pullback. I think the market is setting up for a much deeper move over the next two months, and that is why I am treating any short term bounce as noise unless price can reclaim key levels with real strength. ETH is starting to crack in the same way. It has not printed the same daily divergence as BTC yet, but the structure is weakening, RSI broke support, and price is losing the fast line. Stablecoin dominance keeps pressing higher, TOTALES has already rolled over, and that combination still points to broad market weakness instead of a healthy reset. TradFi is not helping the bulls either. DXY looks ready for another push higher, USDJPY is back in the danger zone, and if Japan is forced into another intervention cycle the Nikkei, U.S. equities, and crypto could all get hit together again. At the same time, WTI looks overextended after filling its gap, while gold and silver are still chopping without giving me a strong risk-on signal. For today’s picks, I am still leaning toward bearish setups over heroic longs. XRP, QNT, ICP, NEAR, TRUMP, DCR, RENDER, ATOM, CHZ, and MORPHO all still look vulnerable if this broader risk-off move keeps building. A few names like DOGE, SKY, and some smaller caps can still bounce, but for me the bigger message today is simple: the warning signs are stacking up, and I would rather stay patient and defensive than fight the trend. 00:00 BTC confirms the bearish divergence 03:03 ETH weakness and stablecoin dominance 05:25 TOTALES breakdown and market-wide risk 06:54 DXY, USDJPY, and Japan intervention risk 13:41 WTI, gold, and silver check-in 20:12 Altcoin picks and short-side setups
Aaron Dishner19,547 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
BTC is down over 3.5% on Wednesday's daily candle close. Eight green candles in a row was manipulation. We had our pivot high on March 17th - the bear flag has resolved. Next pivot low is likely $65K-$67K. After that, the support break, retest as resistance, and we go lower. Based on previous drawdowns of 84% and 77%, a 70% drop from $126K lands around $37K-$38,555 - lining up with our artificial supports. Bear markets have lasted 52-54 weeks. We're still a couple of months out. RSI confirmed the reversal with a lower high at 76.83 versus January's 82.07. BTC wicked into the fast line and risks closing back below the cloud - that flips us from bullish consolidation back to strong bearish. ETH took a 5% close with RSI reset from 84 Monday to 57 Wednesday. ETHBTC is overbought at resistance - underperformance trade stays on. Stablecoin dominance RSI reset below 23.33 on Monday. Check please. DXY hit 100.314 and RSI flipped - dollar may be weakening, which should help stocks. The yen is the real danger: second TBO breakout on Wednesday, confirmed bearish divergence. If it keeps weakening, it tanks everything. VIX back in the rejection zone. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq all still strong bearish. Gold dumped 3% and printed a TBO close long in bearish consolidation - choppy May 2025 replay. Silver has two 4H TBO breakdowns. Copper confirmed a TBO open short. HYPE, Kaspa, QNT, Fartcoin, River all have TBO breakouts - Kaspa the cleanest setup, up 25%. BNB, PEPE, Bonk, and Fluid pulled back to the fast line after TBO close shorts Sunday - that's the entry window. TAO is overbought for day nine with two TBT bearish divergences. Fetch short still open. Pippin down 75% on the week. Merlin down 12% with a TBO breakdown cluster. XRP, Solana, Doge, Render, Trump, Syrup, and Zero all have 4H TBO close longs. Siren up 94% off the springboard bounce. Monero working on a second weekly TBO close long - very bearish. SoFi showing bullish divergence on the daily. Circle pushed above the 0.5 fib - next target $150.88. Western Digital TBO resistance jumped from $294 to $319 - strong bullish.
Aaron Dishner24,611 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
I think May and June could be brutal for crypto, and in this video I walk through exactly why I still believe BTC could push all the way down to $38,555 before this bear market leg is done. The core of the argument comes from the crypto calendar and how the last real bottom years behaved, especially when you compare monthly closes with the full wick-to-wick volatility inside those candles. I break down what those historical averages imply for BTC first, then apply the same lens to ETH and the broader market. The important point is not just that monthly closes could be red. It is that the intramonth volatility can get much uglier than the close alone suggests, which is why a move that looks manageable on paper can still feel like a bloodbath in real time. I also zoom out to TOTALES and the smaller-cap market to show how deep the damage could go if the same kind of bear-market behavior repeats. That is where the opportunity comes in too. If this forecast is even directionally right, the next two months could create some of the best accumulation windows of the cycle, but only for people who stay patient, think probabilistically, and avoid pretending projections are guarantees. The biggest takeaway is that this is a forecast, not a certainty. July has historically looked stronger, but I do not treat that as proof the full bottom is in. Right now I am using the best historical data we have to map the downside, prepare for volatility, and think ahead instead of reacting after the damage is already done. Crypto Calendar: Chapters: 00:00 Bitcoin to $38,555 by June? 01:48 BTC May and June historical forecast 03:19 Bitcoin volatility and lower wick projections 06:40 June could be even worse for BTC 10:47 Why this data comes from The Better Traders Club 12:34 Ethereum May and June forecast 15:30 ETH volatility and the $1,000 target 20:02 What TOTALES shows about the whole crypto market 23:29 TOTALES May and June downside projections 27:04 TOTALES vs TOTALLY50 vs TOTALLY100 explained 31:39 TOTALLY50 forecast and mid-cap risk 34:51 TOTALLY100 forecast and smaller-cap risk 36:21 Why July could bring a bounce 37:40 These are projections, not guarantees 40:02 How traders should prepare 41:48 Trading volatility and final thoughts 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken 👉 🥇 Toobit: $15k Bonus 👉 🥈 TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend 👉 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:
Aaron Dishner17,799 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
BTC stayed put over the weekend and didn't make any new CME Gaps (same for ETH and SOL), plus it even printed a TBO Close Short on the 4-hour time frame (my FAVORITE bullish reversal symbol)! And BTC isn't the only one. TOTALES.D and TOTALE100.D both printed TBO Close Shorts, and even the TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 market cap charts too! I'm expecting ALTs to bounce this week because of these bullish reversal symbols in tight clusters. XMR, TAO, DASH and SYRUP all have valid TBO Breakouts on the 4h and daily time frames, meaning I expect these to continue to have explosive upside continuation. Like I said before, LOTS of charts printed TBO Close Shorts over the weekend: LINK, SHIB, ETC, ASTER, APT, POL, ICP, NEXO, BONK, GRT, IOTA, STRK, ATH and WAL. I wasn't kidding! There are also charts that are looking generally bullish due to price action, RSI, Volume, the TBO, and TBT Bullish Divergences: ADA, ZEC, AAVE, FLR, BORG (surprising, right?), and 0G. ENA and CRV unfortunately printed TBO Breakdowns on their 4h charts over the weekend, which are bearish explosive warning symbols. M, TRUMP and AERO printed TBO Close Longs on their 4-hour charts, putting a brief pause on their previous uptrends. SOL, COAI and XPL are still on my watchlist for desperate price action needed. SOL needs to push up above $190 in order to stay bullish or risk falling below short term support. COAI and XPL are due for a reversal bounce, which I believe is coming soon.
Aaron Dishner39,302 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June
Aaron Dishner13,239 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Bitcoin is extremely close to having a final capitulation sell-off based on the May 2022 fractal, but what does that mean for the rest of 2026? Will Bitcoin bottom out in October, 52 weeks after topping out, just like it did in November 2022 and December 2018? And could the S&P actually cause BTC to go lower if it crashes here (like I've been expecting it to this year)? It's time to buckle up for the last leg down for BTC in this Bottom year.
Aaron Dishner19,223 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
BTC is up 3% on the Jane Street news. Yes, it's worth celebrating. But BlackRock accumulates BTC and moves entire markets without anyone blinking. Manipulation in crypto isn't new. This is not the bottom. BTC is still a deeply bearish chart. The bear flag is still valid. We lost support two days ago, bounced, and are now testing it as resistance. Pivot low at $62,510. Fast line at $69K — a realistic target if this bounce has legs. But the slow line still says lower. Targets: $49K → $38,500 → $31K. Not buying until I see capitulation — long lower wick weekly with volume. Not there. ETH up 3.3%, pivot low at $1,800. Bear flag still valid. TBO resistance at $2,050, then $2,200 would fool a lot of bulls. Volume not showing capitulation. Stablecoin dominance wicked to 12.05%, TBO breakouts printed — macro is bullish on every timeframe, expecting higher. Others dominance TBT bearish divergence confirmed Sunday, unconfirmed today with 22 hours left. Total market cap up 3.16% but TBO breakdowns on the 4h. Still not capitulation. TradFi: the DXY printed a second TBO close short — last seen July 2025. Rising dollar means pain for stocks. NVDA, Tesla, Dow all weak. VIX confirmed a TBT bearish divergence — first since October 2023, 75% historically marks a VIX top. Could see an equity relief rally if it plays out. Gold held the 618 Fib, still targeting $5,451 then $6,500. Alts: XRP, SOL, LINK, SUI, LTC, AVAX all have TBO breakdowns. PIPPIN up 79% in 3 days — stopped me out but RSI lower highs on the daily are a warning. POL has a TBO close short — wait for the fast line, don't chase. MYX second TBO breakdown — oversold pump possible, macro still brutal. MORPHO pushing higher — RSI needs to exceed 81.65 for continuation.
Aaron Dishner18,902 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
BTC is showing the textbook signs of a pivot high. RSI confirmed overbought and reversed in a single day - the last time we saw a one-and-done RSI move like this was back in January before a meaningful pullback. OBV's moving average is still pointing up, which keeps the door open for one more push to around $77K, but the bear flag has been fulfilled. Higher lows and higher highs are done. We can go home. If BTC does put in a higher high from here, I'd expect to see a lower high on RSI - that would just reinforce the setup. Support sits around $65K-$67K, and based on the pace of the last drawdown, something like that by end of weekend isn't unreasonable. Ethereum held up stronger than BTC this week, with RSI staying overbought across three days - Sunday at 73, Monday at 84, Tuesday at 76. ETHBTC is right at resistance. The multiple factor effect means whatever BTC does, ETH does 1.5x to 2x. Ethereum could still push higher, but we're deep into risky territory. Stablecoin dominance flipped green after eight consecutive red days. RSI confirmed oversold on Monday. The trend is starting to shift, and when this chart pumps it typically corresponds to selling pressure across crypto. DXY closed below support from Friday's push after going overbought on the 13th. RSI cracked below 61.78. A pullback to 98.708 is on the table, which should bring some relief to the euro and yen. The yen is still dangerously overbought - second TBT bearish divergence now printing on the weekly. If it keeps pushing up, the Bank of Japan's hand gets forced. We all know what happened last time that went too far. VIX is still inside the rejection zone it's been in since March 2023. Fear hasn't left the building. S&P futures have a TBO close long on the weekly - same pattern that printed before a 16% drop. NVIDIA's daily cloud is now compressed to under 1%. When the cloud gets that tight, explosive moves follow - not necessarily up. On the picks side: XRP had a real volume spike and an 8.8% move after 4H TBO breakouts, but I'm not convinced the momentum holds. Solana's OBV moving average is genuinely bullish - one more leg is possible. Tron is the biggest surprise - perfect three-in-a-row TBO breakout cluster and a 4% move, which for Tron is wild. HYPE printed a second TBO breakout with RSI at 82.34 - the level to beat is 83.86. Kaspa RSI hit 91.5 after a 9% move - that's danger territory. TAO has been overbought on the daily RSI since March 11th - day eight. OBV is genuinely bullish but the warning signs are piling up. Walrus protocol jumped 24% out of nowhere - probably news related and likely AI adjacent. Pippin is down 31% on Tuesday's close. Pi Network is now down 39% from its high after a textbook RSI divergence setup played out exactly as expected. Bitcoin Cash printed a TBT bearish divergence. Render, Morpho, Fetch AI, Syrup all showing exhaustion signals on the 4H.
Aaron Dishner16,640 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce