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PolyArbiter

@PolyArbiter • 8,887 subscribers

Automated arbitrage across prediction markets. BTC Up/Down module on @Solana. 90ms execution. Powered by @jup_predict. Runs 24/7.

Shorts

We found a flaw in Polymarket that can’t be patched. Then we built the most powerful bot of the World Cup around it. Here’s the flaw: their orderbook will always be slower than the pitch. When a goal, red card, or penalty hits, pro feeds (Sportradar, Opta, ScoutingFeed) register it in 200-500ms. Polymarket takes 2 to 8 seconds to reprice. For those few seconds the book is quoting a score that no longer exists. No amount of engineering closes that gap the event happens in the physical world before any oracle can confirm it on-chain. The engine detects the event, recalculates fair value, and fires via Jito bundles before the book catches up. In at the old price, out at the new. The match outcome is irrelevant we don’t bet on who wins. We capture the lag every event creates. We’ve been building Polymarket bots since 2025. This is the most powerful machine we’ve shipped yet. Two months ago we posted the architecture for this. It hit 1M views one of our most popular posts ever on X. That told us everything: this was the engine to build. First 7 days, - Starting balance: $5,000 - 22 matches scanned, 19 captured - Total profit: +$1,946.86 - ROI: +38.94% in 7 days Why it prints harder than anything we’ve built: the World Cup is the deepest liquidity event prediction markets have ever seen. Tens of millions in volume per match. Dozens of probability-shifting events per game. And an orderbook that physically can’t keep pace with the pitch. How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArbiter (link in bio) 2.Generate PolyArbiter RPC URL 3.Paste it into Jupiter Predict (Polymarket but native on Solana) 4.Set your parameters, activate the World Cup module It’s free to use. We take a share of the profit the engine makes for you. You never deposit anything with us everything runs from your wallet. One honest note: the $1,946 above is our engine at our size and settings. Your numbers depend on your capital, your parameters, and how many matches you’re live for. We’re not promising you’ll match it we’re showing you the machine works, and handing you the same one. These numbers are from the engine running solo. Closed test, just us, before any public access wanted to confirm the whole loop held up end to end before handing it to anyone. That changes the second this goes public. Edge per capture is going to compress. When an event fires the mispriced liquidity is thin and gone in a few seconds more wallets hitting the same window, less left for each. Nothing we can do about it, that’s just how latency arb works. So if the edge thins out past the point where it’s still worth running, we cap access. Hard ceiling on how many engines can hit the same liquidity before it’s gone. Not gonna promise the machine stays this sharp in a few days it might not. But right now it’s live and free. Enjoy 🪄

We found a flaw in Polymarket that can’t be patched. Then we built the most powerful bot of the World Cup around it. Here’s the flaw: their orderbook will always be slower than the pitch. When a goal, red card, or penalty hits, pro feeds (Sportradar, Opta, ScoutingFeed) register it in 200-500ms. Polymarket takes 2 to 8 seconds to reprice. For those few seconds the book is quoting a score that no longer exists. No amount of engineering closes that gap the event happens in the physical world before any oracle can confirm it on-chain. The engine detects the event, recalculates fair value, and fires via Jito bundles before the book catches up. In at the old price, out at the new. The match outcome is irrelevant we don’t bet on who wins. We capture the lag every event creates. We’ve been building Polymarket bots since 2025. This is the most powerful machine we’ve shipped yet. Two months ago we posted the architecture for this. It hit 1M views one of our most popular posts ever on X. That told us everything: this was the engine to build. First 7 days, - Starting balance: $5,000 - 22 matches scanned, 19 captured - Total profit: +$1,946.86 - ROI: +38.94% in 7 days Why it prints harder than anything we’ve built: the World Cup is the deepest liquidity event prediction markets have ever seen. Tens of millions in volume per match. Dozens of probability-shifting events per game. And an orderbook that physically can’t keep pace with the pitch. How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArbiter (link in bio) 2.Generate PolyArbiter RPC URL 3.Paste it into Jupiter Predict (Polymarket but native on Solana) 4.Set your parameters, activate the World Cup module It’s free to use. We take a share of the profit the engine makes for you. You never deposit anything with us everything runs from your wallet. One honest note: the $1,946 above is our engine at our size and settings. Your numbers depend on your capital, your parameters, and how many matches you’re live for. We’re not promising you’ll match it we’re showing you the machine works, and handing you the same one. These numbers are from the engine running solo. Closed test, just us, before any public access wanted to confirm the whole loop held up end to end before handing it to anyone. That changes the second this goes public. Edge per capture is going to compress. When an event fires the mispriced liquidity is thin and gone in a few seconds more wallets hitting the same window, less left for each. Nothing we can do about it, that’s just how latency arb works. So if the edge thins out past the point where it’s still worth running, we cap access. Hard ceiling on how many engines can hit the same liquidity before it’s gone. Not gonna promise the machine stays this sharp in a few days it might not. But right now it’s live and free. Enjoy 🪄

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We found a flaw in Polymarket that can’t be patched. Then we built the most powerful bot of the World Cup around it. Here’s the flaw: their orderbook will always be slower than the pitch. When a goal, red card, or penalty hits, pro feeds (Sportradar, Opta, ScoutingFeed) register it in 200-500ms. Polymarket takes 2 to 8 seconds to reprice. For those few seconds the book is quoting a score that no longer exists. No amount of engineering closes that gap the event happens in the physical world before any oracle can confirm it on-chain. The engine detects the event, recalculates fair value, and fires via Jito bundles before the book catches up. In at the old price, out at the new. The match outcome is irrelevant we don’t bet on who wins. We capture the lag every event creates. We’ve been building Polymarket bots since 2025. This is the most powerful machine we’ve shipped yet. Two months ago we posted the architecture for this. It hit 1M views one of our most popular posts ever on X. That told us everything: this was the engine to build. First 7 days, - Starting balance: $5,000 - 22 matches scanned, 19 captured - Total profit: +$1,946.86 - ROI: +38.94% in 7 days Why it prints harder than anything we’ve built: the World Cup is the deepest liquidity event prediction markets have ever seen. Tens of millions in volume per match. Dozens of probability-shifting events per game. And an orderbook that physically can’t keep pace with the pitch. How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArbiter (link in bio) 2.Generate PolyArbiter RPC URL 3.Paste it into Jupiter Predict (Polymarket but native on Solana) 4.Set your parameters, activate the World Cup module It’s free to use. We take a share of the profit the engine makes for you. You never deposit anything with us everything runs from your wallet. One honest note: the $1,946 above is our engine at our size and settings. Your numbers depend on your capital, your parameters, and how many matches you’re live for. We’re not promising you’ll match it we’re showing you the machine works, and handing you the same one. These numbers are from the engine running solo. Closed test, just us, before any public access wanted to confirm the whole loop held up end to end before handing it to anyone. That changes the second this goes public. Edge per capture is going to compress. When an event fires the mispriced liquidity is thin and gone in a few seconds more wallets hitting the same window, less left for each. Nothing we can do about it, that’s just how latency arb works. So if the edge thins out past the point where it’s still worth running, we cap access. Hard ceiling on how many engines can hit the same liquidity before it’s gone. Not gonna promise the machine stays this sharp in a few days it might not. But right now it’s live and free. Enjoy 🪄

We found a flaw in Polymarket that can’t be patched. Then we built the most powerful bot of the World Cup around it. Here’s the flaw: their orderbook will always be slower than the pitch. When a goal, red card, or penalty hits, pro feeds (Sportradar, Opta, ScoutingFeed) register it in 200-500ms. Polymarket takes 2 to 8 seconds to reprice. For those few seconds the book is quoting a score that no longer exists. No amount of engineering closes that gap the event happens in the physical world before any oracle can confirm it on-chain. The engine detects the event, recalculates fair value, and fires via Jito bundles before the book catches up. In at the old price, out at the new. The match outcome is irrelevant we don’t bet on who wins. We capture the lag every event creates. We’ve been building Polymarket bots since 2025. This is the most powerful machine we’ve shipped yet. Two months ago we posted the architecture for this. It hit 1M views one of our most popular posts ever on X. That told us everything: this was the engine to build. First 7 days, - Starting balance: $5,000 - 22 matches scanned, 19 captured - Total profit: +$1,946.86 - ROI: +38.94% in 7 days Why it prints harder than anything we’ve built: the World Cup is the deepest liquidity event prediction markets have ever seen. Tens of millions in volume per match. Dozens of probability-shifting events per game. And an orderbook that physically can’t keep pace with the pitch. How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArbiter (link in bio) 2.Generate PolyArbiter RPC URL 3.Paste it into Jupiter Predict (Polymarket but native on Solana) 4.Set your parameters, activate the World Cup module It’s free to use. We take a share of the profit the engine makes for you. You never deposit anything with us everything runs from your wallet. One honest note: the $1,946 above is our engine at our size and settings. Your numbers depend on your capital, your parameters, and how many matches you’re live for. We’re not promising you’ll match it we’re showing you the machine works, and handing you the same one. These numbers are from the engine running solo. Closed test, just us, before any public access wanted to confirm the whole loop held up end to end before handing it to anyone. That changes the second this goes public. Edge per capture is going to compress. When an event fires the mispriced liquidity is thin and gone in a few seconds more wallets hitting the same window, less left for each. Nothing we can do about it, that’s just how latency arb works. So if the edge thins out past the point where it’s still worth running, we cap access. Hard ceiling on how many engines can hit the same liquidity before it’s gone. Not gonna promise the machine stays this sharp in a few days it might not. But right now it’s live and free. Enjoy 🪄

96,013 views • 1 day ago

We’re building a latency Football bot for Polymarket. Target: operational before the World Cup. Save this. The principle: pro sports feeds (Sportradar, Opta) deliver pitch events in ~200-500ms. The Polymarket orderbook takes longer to reprice thin liquidity, market makers pulling quotes while they reassess. That window is the edge. Yesterday, first live test on Bayern vs Real (Champions League QF). 86th minute, Camavinga gets his second yellow. Pipeline receives the event from Sportradar 280ms after the card. “Bayern advances” market was at ~0.55. Model recomputes to ~0.68 post-red and fires a $500 order. Partial fill as expected: ~$180 caught around 0.55-0.57, the rest slipped to 0.63. Average 0.59. Market stabilized at 0.67 a few seconds later. Unrealized +$30. +6% in seconds. It’s a test. But the loop worked end to end detection, decision, fill, before the book caught up. What we learned: network latency is part of the problem. The real bottleneck is orderbook depth. We’re competing with sharp bots, not retail on their couch. And “next goal” markets have better spreads than qualification markets. Pivoting there. What we’re building before June: fill routing across 12 venues via Jito atomic bundles. Low-signal event modeling (dangerous fouls, injuries, tactical shifts). UMA oracle hedging. Node co-location near Sportradar servers. Why the World Cup matters. 104 matches in 39 days. $2.5B+ in projected prediction market volume. Deep liquidity means bigger positions fill cleanly. Thin liquidity in group stages means wider spreads. Both environments leave serious money on the table. 56 days to ship. We’re on it.

We’re building a latency Football bot for Polymarket. Target: operational before the World Cup. Save this. The principle: pro sports feeds (Sportradar, Opta) deliver pitch events in ~200-500ms. The Polymarket orderbook takes longer to reprice thin liquidity, market makers pulling quotes while they reassess. That window is the edge. Yesterday, first live test on Bayern vs Real (Champions League QF). 86th minute, Camavinga gets his second yellow. Pipeline receives the event from Sportradar 280ms after the card. “Bayern advances” market was at ~0.55. Model recomputes to ~0.68 post-red and fires a $500 order. Partial fill as expected: ~$180 caught around 0.55-0.57, the rest slipped to 0.63. Average 0.59. Market stabilized at 0.67 a few seconds later. Unrealized +$30. +6% in seconds. It’s a test. But the loop worked end to end detection, decision, fill, before the book caught up. What we learned: network latency is part of the problem. The real bottleneck is orderbook depth. We’re competing with sharp bots, not retail on their couch. And “next goal” markets have better spreads than qualification markets. Pivoting there. What we’re building before June: fill routing across 12 venues via Jito atomic bundles. Low-signal event modeling (dangerous fouls, injuries, tactical shifts). UMA oracle hedging. Node co-location near Sportradar servers. Why the World Cup matters. 104 matches in 39 days. $2.5B+ in projected prediction market volume. Deep liquidity means bigger positions fill cleanly. Thin liquidity in group stages means wider spreads. Both environments leave serious money on the table. 56 days to ship. We’re on it.

930,607 views • 2 months ago

We built the ultimate arbitrage machine. it literally scans every prediction market into one single dashboard: > live tracking for spreads across Polymarket, Kalshi, Drift & 12+ platforms > real-time price feeds from every market > executes both sides in you profit no matter who wins > 24/7 automated scanning > free to use - we only take a cut when you profit while you're reading news and picking sides, this is running in the background. we didn't build a bot. we built infrastructure.

We built the ultimate arbitrage machine. it literally scans every prediction market into one single dashboard: > live tracking for spreads across Polymarket, Kalshi, Drift & 12+ platforms > real-time price feeds from every market > executes both sides in you profit no matter who wins > 24/7 automated scanning > free to use - we only take a cut when you profit while you're reading news and picking sides, this is running in the background. we didn't build a bot. we built infrastructure.

352,267 views • 3 months ago

We built the cleanest BTC Up/Down bot on Polymarket. ⁠ We engineered the entire stack from scratch around one principle: never bet on outcomes, only capture mispricings. ⁠ How it works: When YES + NO sums to less than $1.00 on Polymarket’s 15-min BTC market, the engine fires both sides atomically via Jito bundles. Total cost: $0.97. At resolution, one side always pays $1.00. Locked profit: 3 cents per dollar deployed. ⁠ BTC’s direction is irrelevant. The math already paid. ⁠ We don’t predict. We capture. ⁠ Architecture: - Yellowstone gRPC at 1-5ms orderbook latency - Jito atomic bundles, both legs fill or neither does - 91ms median detection-to-fill 97.8% fill rate over 30 days - Auto-hedge engine for partial fills in 4.2s How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArb (link in bio) 2.Copy PolyArb dedicated RPC URL from the dashboard 3. Open Jupiter Prediction Markets on Solana 4.Paste the RPC into Settings → Custom RPC 5.Activate the BTC Up/Down module Free to use. Profit-share only. No subscription. No upfront cost.

We built the cleanest BTC Up/Down bot on Polymarket. ⁠ We engineered the entire stack from scratch around one principle: never bet on outcomes, only capture mispricings. ⁠ How it works: When YES + NO sums to less than $1.00 on Polymarket’s 15-min BTC market, the engine fires both sides atomically via Jito bundles. Total cost: $0.97. At resolution, one side always pays $1.00. Locked profit: 3 cents per dollar deployed. ⁠ BTC’s direction is irrelevant. The math already paid. ⁠ We don’t predict. We capture. ⁠ Architecture: - Yellowstone gRPC at 1-5ms orderbook latency - Jito atomic bundles, both legs fill or neither does - 91ms median detection-to-fill 97.8% fill rate over 30 days - Auto-hedge engine for partial fills in 4.2s How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArb (link in bio) 2.Copy PolyArb dedicated RPC URL from the dashboard 3. Open Jupiter Prediction Markets on Solana 4.Paste the RPC into Settings → Custom RPC 5.Activate the BTC Up/Down module Free to use. Profit-share only. No subscription. No upfront cost.

129,284 views • 1 month ago

We built a Polymarket execution engine. Here’s today’s output. 17 fills today. $118.40 P&L. 94% win rate. 19ms ping. 1,135 TPS. 5 routes running: POLY/KLSH. KLSH/POLY. POLY/PRED. PRED/KLSH. PRED/POLY. This is what 50,000 lines of code and 4 months of engineering looks like when it runs. We made it free. (Profit-sharing) Set your parameters and run.

We built a Polymarket execution engine. Here’s today’s output. 17 fills today. $118.40 P&L. 94% win rate. 19ms ping. 1,135 TPS. 5 routes running: POLY/KLSH. KLSH/POLY. POLY/PRED. PRED/KLSH. PRED/POLY. This is what 50,000 lines of code and 4 months of engineering looks like when it runs. We made it free. (Profit-sharing) Set your parameters and run.

118,950 views • 2 months ago

Claude Bot on Polymarket — The truth nobody is telling you. The same setup that turned $1,000 into $1.5M. Everyone is trying to build this right now. Most will fail. We’ve been running it for months. Here’s what it actually takes. Full tutorial breakdown. Bookmark this so you don’t lose it.

Claude Bot on Polymarket — The truth nobody is telling you. The same setup that turned $1,000 into $1.5M. Everyone is trying to build this right now. Most will fail. We’ve been running it for months. Here’s what it actually takes. Full tutorial breakdown. Bookmark this so you don’t lose it.

129,185 views • 2 months ago

We spent 4 months building an engine arbitraging Polymarket faster than any Claude bot can sign an order. When the spread crosses the threshold both sides execute. 90ms. Jito atomic bundles. Both fill or nothing fills. The orderbook view shows live depth across venues. The heatmap shows execution density across every active market in real time. 4 months of engineering. This is what 50,000 lines of code looks like when it’s running. We made it free. Set your parameters and run.

We spent 4 months building an engine arbitraging Polymarket faster than any Claude bot can sign an order. When the spread crosses the threshold both sides execute. 90ms. Jito atomic bundles. Both fill or nothing fills. The orderbook view shows live depth across venues. The heatmap shows execution density across every active market in real time. 4 months of engineering. This is what 50,000 lines of code looks like when it’s running. We made it free. Set your parameters and run.

99,554 views • 2 months ago

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