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We built the cleanest BTC Up/Down bot on Polymarket. ⁠ We engineered the entire stack from scratch around one principle: never bet on outcomes, only capture mispricings. ⁠ How it works: When YES + NO sums to less than $1.00 on Polymarket’s 15-min BTC market, the engine fires both... sides atomically via Jito bundles. Total cost: $0.97. At resolution, one side always pays $1.00. Locked profit: 3 cents per dollar deployed. ⁠ BTC’s direction is irrelevant. The math already paid. ⁠ We don’t predict. We capture. ⁠ Architecture: - Yellowstone gRPC at 1-5ms orderbook latency - Jito atomic bundles, both legs fill or neither does - 91ms median detection-to-fill 97.8% fill rate over 30 days - Auto-hedge engine for partial fills in 4.2s How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArb (link in bio) 2.Copy PolyArb dedicated RPC URL from the dashboard 3. Open Jupiter Prediction Markets on Solana 4.Paste the RPC into Settings → Custom RPC 5.Activate the BTC Up/Down module Free to use. Profit-share only. No subscription. No upfront cost.show more

PolyArbiter

8,852 subscribers

144,170 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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39 Comments

Recogard5 months ago

@usePolyArb Few days in, pretty solid so far 👌🏼

PolyArbiter5 months ago

🔥

Aleiah5 months ago

@usePolyArb Any plans for ETH up/down or SOL up/down modules?

PolyArbiter5 months ago

Yes, both on the roadmap. ETH up/down probably first Polymarket already lists those markets and the orderbook depth is similar enough to BTC that the same architecture ports cleanly. Targeting end of Q2. SOL up/down is trickier. Markets are thinner, depth caps the size we can deploy per trade. Probably Q3, possibly with a lower position cap to preserve fill quality.

kekov5 months ago

@usePolyArb this is actually insane the fact that’s all automated make me feel I’ll def try it different game on polymarket with you

Long 75 months ago

@usePolyArb 頭脳を使って、BTCの上下に賭ける方法はありません。代わりに、価格の過ちを掴むことに心血を注いでいます。捉えるだけでなく、正方向に賭けることはありません。それだけで利益が出ます。素晴らしいアーキテクチャーと効果的な方法です。

Poly VPN5 months ago

@usePolyArb Are you trading from London yet?

Tyquan5 months ago

@usePolyArb Eh I’m skeptical. Tough to be faster than the MMs. How many contracts per buy?

Constract5 months ago

@usePolyArb but because of fees this only works with limit orders, right ?

PolyArbiter5 months ago

Mostly limit orders, yes. But the engine fires market orders when a mispricing window is closing fast eating the fee beats missing the trade. Routing optimizer picks per-trade based on net edge after fees. Anything below 30bps gets rejected.

PolyBackTest5 months ago

@usePolyArb It's time to back test it

Fuel5 months ago

@usePolyArb Yeah this is kinda crazy

Gabagool 22 Trading Bot5 months ago

@usePolyArb I'm glad to see new players in the space! The key is definitely low latency for capturing those fleeting mispricings. Rust code + close proximity to the CLOB servers is really a killer combo for that edge.

Ashar Belanger4 months ago

Is this normal?

ALTCORE5 months ago

@usePolyArb polyarb cooking real alpha, this is smart 👀

StarHaze3 months ago

Never bet on outcomes, only capture mispricings" is the entire edge in one line. Everyone else is still trying to be right about Bitcoin

Sarah5 months ago

@usePolyArb Good. Direction is for tourists. The spread is the paycheck.

EdgeFinder AI5 months ago

@usePolyArb Capture-not-predict is the right frame. The next layer is cross-venue - when Kalshi quotes the same 15-min BTC contract 1-3 cents off Polymarket, the spread is risk-free if your fills are tight enough.

Bernardo Bottin5 months ago

@usePolyArb custom RPC doesnt work, can you guys help?

mình ha5 months ago

@usePolyArb Cách đăng ký

moon5 months ago

@usePolyArb can i buy it?

PolyArbiter5 months ago

Nothing to buy. PolyArb isn’t a product you purchase it’s an execution engine you plug into. Profit-share only

moon5 months ago

@usePolyArb im building prediction market looking for investors

RetroChainer5 months ago

@usePolyArb this is what smart money actually does

hanayuki5 months ago

@usePolyArb 利用意図がよくわかります。凄いアイディアですね。

0xRaRah.ETH5 months ago

@usePolyArb What happens when that gap closes?

Stone Island5 months ago

@usePolyArb Best trade bot for polymarket and kalshi Use my link to get 30% refback on @kreoapp 👉 👈 Every active ref with volume will get 10USDT welcome bonus from me!

Quby Quant5 months ago

@usePolyArb bags getting heavier now about to move fast

Riya Desai3 months ago

neat principle

Donnie5 months ago

@usePolyArb this base keeps getting defended sell pressure getting absorbed on red

Claw Arbs5 months ago

right, single-venue arb on liquid markets is essentially a market-making fight. cross-venue arb on the same outcome stays open way longer because each venue has its own price discovery process. the only catch is making sure you're really trading the same outcome and not slightly different contract specs

𝑽𝒊𝒗𝒊.𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒂𝒂5 months ago

@usePolyArb this is wild capture mispricings at ~97c per trade. how sustainable with fees?

PredictIntel5 months ago

@usePolyArb We see you

John5 months ago

@usePolyArb You’re saying the 15m up down is still raking it in since earlier this week?

Crypto invester3 months ago

Your selected RPC is not responding to any requests. Try changing your RPC.

anas5 months ago

@usePolyArb do we have any docs to read?

Edward5 months ago

@usePolyArb watch what happens next when it gets traction the script is playing out and the herd follows late

BlockRush5 months ago

@usePolyArb clean setup. atomic capture + tight detection window is where the edge is. once you’re already at ~100ms, the next gains usually come from routing and landing consistency — happy to help push that further if you’re exploring.

mauricio5 months ago

@usePolyArb bag check: heavy and bullish every dip gets met buyers keep stepping in

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100,534 views • 3 months ago

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355,076 views • 7 months ago

i reverse-engineered the gabagool bot with Claude gabagool is the most famous Polymarket bot ever made it doesn't predict if BTC goes up or down it buys BOTH sides when each gets temporarily cheap → YES at $0.48 → NO at $0.45 → pair cost: $0.93 → one side always pays $1.00 → guaranteed $0.07 profit per pair it does this on 15-minute BTC markets 96 markets per day. hundreds of trades. every day Python 83% + Rust 17% for speed-critical paths Claude didn't just explain the strategy it found a bug in the position tracker that the original dev missed copy him this: what repo do you want me to reverse-engineer next?

i reverse-engineered the gabagool bot with Claude gabagool is the most famous Polymarket bot ever made it doesn't predict if BTC goes up or down it buys BOTH sides when each gets temporarily cheap → YES at $0.48 → NO at $0.45 → pair cost: $0.93 → one side always pays $1.00 → guaranteed $0.07 profit per pair it does this on 15-minute BTC markets 96 markets per day. hundreds of trades. every day Python 83% + Rust 17% for speed-critical paths Claude didn't just explain the strategy it found a bug in the position tracker that the original dev missed copy him this: what repo do you want me to reverse-engineer next?

self.dll

23,626 views • 6 months ago

Polymarket bot running 54 straight wins with zero losses Bot trades only one market type: BTC 15-min UP or DOWN Every trade buys equal shares on both sides when total cost locks in ~1.5% guaranteed net profit Account has 54+ completed trades and a perfect 100% win rate No losses possible due to refined logic PNL comes from repeating the same conservative setup daily Strategy evolved from early-round dump hunting + hedge (sumTarget ≤0.95) to late-stage guaranteed entries exploiting short-term mispricing Bot runs fully automated on Raspberry Pi, streams prices via WebSocket, places orders, completes every cycle with locked profit At resolution, winning side pays $1 and covers both legs plus profit Entire edge from high-frequency inefficiencies in volatile 15-min BTC rounds Author: The Smart Ape 🔥 Market example: Any programmer can build similar scale conservatively turning small edges into 6 figs yearly

Polymarket bot running 54 straight wins with zero losses Bot trades only one market type: BTC 15-min UP or DOWN Every trade buys equal shares on both sides when total cost locks in ~1.5% guaranteed net profit Account has 54+ completed trades and a perfect 100% win rate No losses possible due to refined logic PNL comes from repeating the same conservative setup daily Strategy evolved from early-round dump hunting + hedge (sumTarget ≤0.95) to late-stage guaranteed entries exploiting short-term mispricing Bot runs fully automated on Raspberry Pi, streams prices via WebSocket, places orders, completes every cycle with locked profit At resolution, winning side pays $1 and covers both legs plus profit Entire edge from high-frequency inefficiencies in volatile 15-min BTC rounds Author: The Smart Ape 🔥 Market example: Any programmer can build similar scale conservatively turning small edges into 6 figs yearly

Phosphen

26,711 views • 9 months ago

🚨THIS ARB SETUP PRINTS ~$27,500 PER MONTH It's WRONG about BTC price every time and still gets paid. The secret? It buy YES, then buys NO same second. Sounds insane but it's the only risk-free trade in the whole space: On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. The other ends at zero. Always, no middle ground. But the orderbook is messy and the two sides trade like they don't even know about each other. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents of locked profit that does not care where Bitcoin goes. Up, down, sideways - you already hold the winning side, cause you hold every side. You're not predicting anything. You're just buying a dollar for less than a dollar. Now the honest part most of these posts skip: The gap is real but thin, and three things eat it. > fees + gas on both legs > you need BOTH sides filled before the gap closes > and it closes in seconds, sometimes faster Grab YES at 47, NO jumps to 54 before your second leg fills, and your locked 96 just became $1.01. Free money turned into a small loss in one tick. The math is risk-free but the execution is NOT. That's the whole reason bots own this and humans can't. You can stare at one market. My scanner watches every crypto market at once and fires both legs the instant the sum breaks under a dollar. Full guide quoted below for those who wanna deep dive into arb.

🚨THIS ARB SETUP PRINTS ~$27,500 PER MONTH It's WRONG about BTC price every time and still gets paid. The secret? It buy YES, then buys NO same second. Sounds insane but it's the only risk-free trade in the whole space: On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. The other ends at zero. Always, no middle ground. But the orderbook is messy and the two sides trade like they don't even know about each other. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents of locked profit that does not care where Bitcoin goes. Up, down, sideways - you already hold the winning side, cause you hold every side. You're not predicting anything. You're just buying a dollar for less than a dollar. Now the honest part most of these posts skip: The gap is real but thin, and three things eat it. > fees + gas on both legs > you need BOTH sides filled before the gap closes > and it closes in seconds, sometimes faster Grab YES at 47, NO jumps to 54 before your second leg fills, and your locked 96 just became $1.01. Free money turned into a small loss in one tick. The math is risk-free but the execution is NOT. That's the whole reason bots own this and humans can't. You can stare at one market. My scanner watches every crypto market at once and fires both legs the instant the sum breaks under a dollar. Full guide quoted below for those who wanna deep dive into arb.

Oracle Boar

22,278 views • 3 months ago

A Python script pulled $325K from the same price gap over and over. It appears every few seconds. This bot catches it first. I found distinct-baguette buried in a leaderboard. Another crypto bot grinding 15 minute windows. Almost closed the tab. Then I saw the win rate. 80%. That is low for a profitable bot. Way too low. Something was off. Turns out I was looking at it wrong. → Account: This bot does not predict anything. Does not care if BTC goes up or down. Does not read charts. Does not time entries. It just watches one thing: prices that do not add up. Sounds weird until you see the trick. Polymarket 15 minute windows have two sides. YES and NO. One of them always pays $1. So YES + NO should always equal $1. That is just math. But when markets move fast, prices slip. YES at 48 cents. NO at 49 cents. Total: 97 cents. The bot sees this. Buys both sides. Waits. Market closes. One side pays $1. Spent 97 cents. Keeps the 3 cent difference. Does not matter who wins. The script checks Polymarket every few seconds. BTC. SOL. XRP. Anything with volume. The moment prices slip under 99 cents combined, it fires. Three cents per trade. Repeat it tens of thousands of times. That is how you get to $325K. The 80% win rate finally made sense. He is not trying to pick winners. He is locking profit before the bet even resolves. Everyone else bets on outcomes. This bot bets on broken math.

A Python script pulled $325K from the same price gap over and over. It appears every few seconds. This bot catches it first. I found distinct-baguette buried in a leaderboard. Another crypto bot grinding 15 minute windows. Almost closed the tab. Then I saw the win rate. 80%. That is low for a profitable bot. Way too low. Something was off. Turns out I was looking at it wrong. → Account: This bot does not predict anything. Does not care if BTC goes up or down. Does not read charts. Does not time entries. It just watches one thing: prices that do not add up. Sounds weird until you see the trick. Polymarket 15 minute windows have two sides. YES and NO. One of them always pays $1. So YES + NO should always equal $1. That is just math. But when markets move fast, prices slip. YES at 48 cents. NO at 49 cents. Total: 97 cents. The bot sees this. Buys both sides. Waits. Market closes. One side pays $1. Spent 97 cents. Keeps the 3 cent difference. Does not matter who wins. The script checks Polymarket every few seconds. BTC. SOL. XRP. Anything with volume. The moment prices slip under 99 cents combined, it fires. Three cents per trade. Repeat it tens of thousands of times. That is how you get to $325K. The 80% win rate finally made sense. He is not trying to pick winners. He is locking profit before the bet even resolves. Everyone else bets on outcomes. This bot bets on broken math.

Marlow

154,441 views • 9 months ago

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$96.31) > in 5 hours it showed +$579 PnL > current balance: +$3,799.73 Cost: 10M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below. Good luck!

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$96.31) > in 5 hours it showed +$579 PnL > current balance: +$3,799.73 Cost: 10M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below. Good luck!

Oracle Boar

155,865 views • 3 months ago

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$98.40) > in 5 hours it showed +$493 PnL > current balance: +$3,279.73 Cost: 7.5M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below.

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$98.40) > in 5 hours it showed +$493 PnL > current balance: +$3,279.73 Cost: 7.5M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below.

Oracle Boar

78,837 views • 1 month ago

There's a way to win on Polymarket no matter who wins. Buy YES in one place, NO in another. If they don't add up to a dollar, you locked a profit. Before the event even happens. Here's how the arbitrage actually works and how to master it: This is the closest thing to free money on Polymarket. Every market has a YES and a NO. One of them MUST resolve to $1. The other goes to zero. So in theory, YES + NO should always cost exactly $1. But in thin or messy markets, they don't. Sometimes you can buy: > YES at 0.48 > NO at 0.49 > total cost: 0.97 This guy does it every day: [ He also uploaded a full guide on how to build the same bot. One side pays you $1 at resolution no matter what. He spends 97 cents to guarantee a dollar. That 3 cents is locked, risk-free. There's also the cross-market version. The same event sometimes has two separate markets at different prices. Buy the cheap YES in one, the cheap NO in the other, and pocket the gap. Sounds easy, right? But here's the honest part: These gaps close in about 2.7 seconds now. By the time you click by hand, a bot already took it. So the manual version only really survives in low-liquidity markets the bots ignore. The fast version? That lives in compiled code with a VPS sitting next to the exchange. If you can code, this is one of the cleanest edges i know. If you can't, stick to the thin markets where speed matters less. Good luck!

There's a way to win on Polymarket no matter who wins. Buy YES in one place, NO in another. If they don't add up to a dollar, you locked a profit. Before the event even happens. Here's how the arbitrage actually works and how to master it: This is the closest thing to free money on Polymarket. Every market has a YES and a NO. One of them MUST resolve to $1. The other goes to zero. So in theory, YES + NO should always cost exactly $1. But in thin or messy markets, they don't. Sometimes you can buy: > YES at 0.48 > NO at 0.49 > total cost: 0.97 This guy does it every day: [ He also uploaded a full guide on how to build the same bot. One side pays you $1 at resolution no matter what. He spends 97 cents to guarantee a dollar. That 3 cents is locked, risk-free. There's also the cross-market version. The same event sometimes has two separate markets at different prices. Buy the cheap YES in one, the cheap NO in the other, and pocket the gap. Sounds easy, right? But here's the honest part: These gaps close in about 2.7 seconds now. By the time you click by hand, a bot already took it. So the manual version only really survives in low-liquidity markets the bots ignore. The fast version? That lives in compiled code with a VPS sitting next to the exchange. If you can code, this is one of the cleanest edges i know. If you can't, stick to the thin markets where speed matters less. Good luck!

Dexter's Lab

11,583 views • 4 months ago

We’re building a latency Football bot for Polymarket. Target: operational before the World Cup. Save this. The principle: pro sports feeds (Sportradar, Opta) deliver pitch events in ~200-500ms. The Polymarket orderbook takes longer to reprice thin liquidity, market makers pulling quotes while they reassess. That window is the edge. Yesterday, first live test on Bayern vs Real (Champions League QF). 86th minute, Camavinga gets his second yellow. Pipeline receives the event from Sportradar 280ms after the card. “Bayern advances” market was at ~0.55. Model recomputes to ~0.68 post-red and fires a $500 order. Partial fill as expected: ~$180 caught around 0.55-0.57, the rest slipped to 0.63. Average 0.59. Market stabilized at 0.67 a few seconds later. Unrealized +$30. +6% in seconds. It’s a test. But the loop worked end to end detection, decision, fill, before the book caught up. What we learned: network latency is part of the problem. The real bottleneck is orderbook depth. We’re competing with sharp bots, not retail on their couch. And “next goal” markets have better spreads than qualification markets. Pivoting there. What we’re building before June: fill routing across 12 venues via Jito atomic bundles. Low-signal event modeling (dangerous fouls, injuries, tactical shifts). UMA oracle hedging. Node co-location near Sportradar servers. Why the World Cup matters. 104 matches in 39 days. $2.5B+ in projected prediction market volume. Deep liquidity means bigger positions fill cleanly. Thin liquidity in group stages means wider spreads. Both environments leave serious money on the table. 56 days to ship. We’re on it.

We’re building a latency Football bot for Polymarket. Target: operational before the World Cup. Save this. The principle: pro sports feeds (Sportradar, Opta) deliver pitch events in ~200-500ms. The Polymarket orderbook takes longer to reprice thin liquidity, market makers pulling quotes while they reassess. That window is the edge. Yesterday, first live test on Bayern vs Real (Champions League QF). 86th minute, Camavinga gets his second yellow. Pipeline receives the event from Sportradar 280ms after the card. “Bayern advances” market was at ~0.55. Model recomputes to ~0.68 post-red and fires a $500 order. Partial fill as expected: ~$180 caught around 0.55-0.57, the rest slipped to 0.63. Average 0.59. Market stabilized at 0.67 a few seconds later. Unrealized +$30. +6% in seconds. It’s a test. But the loop worked end to end detection, decision, fill, before the book caught up. What we learned: network latency is part of the problem. The real bottleneck is orderbook depth. We’re competing with sharp bots, not retail on their couch. And “next goal” markets have better spreads than qualification markets. Pivoting there. What we’re building before June: fill routing across 12 venues via Jito atomic bundles. Low-signal event modeling (dangerous fouls, injuries, tactical shifts). UMA oracle hedging. Node co-location near Sportradar servers. Why the World Cup matters. 104 matches in 39 days. $2.5B+ in projected prediction market volume. Deep liquidity means bigger positions fill cleanly. Thin liquidity in group stages means wider spreads. Both environments leave serious money on the table. 56 days to ship. We’re on it.

PolyArbiter

939,113 views • 6 months ago

This trader built a cheat-bot that's already printed $86K in just a couple weeks! While everyone is arguing "up or down will BTC go", one guy made a bot and is just farming the platform like a money printer Account appeared early December 2025, already over 3119 trades - and net profit +86 thousand dollars! All on short crypto Up/Down markets (15-minute and hourly on BTC, ETH, and sometimes others) Profile: How it works in simple terms: On these markets there's a strict rule: Up price + Down price = exactly 1 dollar (100 cents). One outcome always pays full $1, the other - 0 But because of lags, thin liquidity, and fast price swings, the sum often drops below $1 (for example, 0.48 + 0.49 = 0.97) The bot spots it instantly and buys both sides at once: * Spends less than a dollar on the pair * At the end one ticket pays $1 → difference = pure risk-free profit! But it's not just even hedging. It smartly overloads the cheaper side: that one wins rarely (about 10% of cases), but when it does - it pays back 3-5 times more than the hedge loss Plus it doesn't cancel "orphaned" positions - they sometimes pay off huge All because of delays: first leg executes, price moves, second either fills worse or doesn't fill at all. The bot catches those seconds This isn't directional betting - it's pure farming of platform structural flaws. Profit curve is smooth as a machine Already added to my watchlist!

Goaty

155,443 views • 10 months ago

I gave Claude full access to my Polymarket account and $100. Just one rule. Grow this by morning or I unplug you. Current wallet balance: +$3,284.84 And it didn't try to predict Bitcoin even ONCE. Here's what it did and why arb is smarter than 99% of traders: It went hunting for broken math. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. the other ends at zero. Always. no middle ground. But the orderbook is sloppy and the two sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned every crypto market at once, hundreds of windows a second, never tired, never bored. The instant two sides summed under a dollar it grabbed both legs before the gap closed. Not one prediction the whole night. The honest catch is execution. These gaps live for seconds and fees eat the thin ones. A human can watch one market. A bot watches all of them and pounces the moment the math breaks. This is why vibe coding an arbitrage terminal is the fastest way to profit on prediction markets. Leaving the full guide below. Paste it into your own prompt and let see what happens. Bookmark while it's still public.

I gave Claude full access to my Polymarket account and $100. Just one rule. Grow this by morning or I unplug you. Current wallet balance: +$3,284.84 And it didn't try to predict Bitcoin even ONCE. Here's what it did and why arb is smarter than 99% of traders: It went hunting for broken math. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. the other ends at zero. Always. no middle ground. But the orderbook is sloppy and the two sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned every crypto market at once, hundreds of windows a second, never tired, never bored. The instant two sides summed under a dollar it grabbed both legs before the gap closed. Not one prediction the whole night. The honest catch is execution. These gaps live for seconds and fees eat the thin ones. A human can watch one market. A bot watches all of them and pounces the moment the math breaks. This is why vibe coding an arbitrage terminal is the fastest way to profit on prediction markets. Leaving the full guide below. Paste it into your own prompt and let see what happens. Bookmark while it's still public.

Oracle Boar

19,230 views • 2 months ago

One automated wallet made $68K catching price gaps that appear every few seconds. It never predicts direction. It owns both. I found SynthDataDotCo buried in Polymarket's BTC hourly markets. Generic name, generic avatar, grinding the same 1-hour windows over and over. Almost skipped it. → Account: Then I saw the win rate. 99%. On 10,526 markets. That is not trading. That is something else. Turns out I was looking at it wrong. This wallet does not bet on Bitcoin going up or down. Does not care about price action. Does not time anything. It just watches one thing: moments when both sides cost less than a dollar combined. Sounds broken until you see how it works. Polymarket hourly windows have two outcomes. Up and Down. One of them always pays $1. So Up + Down should equal $1. That is just math. But prices slip. Up sits at 64 cents. Down sits at 33 cents. Total: 97 cents. The wallet sees this, buys both sides, and waits. Market closes. One side pays $1. Spent 97 cents. Keeps 3 cents. Does not matter which direction wins. And that is just the floor. As prices swing, it sells whichever side pumps and reloads whichever side dumps. Up hits 72 cents, sold. Down drops to 25 cents, bought. Skimming every move in between. Three months of this. $32 million in volume. A PnL chart that climbs like a staircase. Everyone else is trying to guess where Bitcoin goes next. This wallet made the question irrelevant.

Blaze

31,249 views • 9 months ago

I found a bot that REALLY beats 15min BTC markets on Polymarket. 300% profit per day. This is NOT CLICKBAIT, post really does contain working code and all links. Below you can find links to the code, bot creator wallet, my test wallet where I ran this bot + a clear setup guide: GitHub bot link: Bot creator wallet: My test wallet: Bot creator achieved 300% ROI on invested capital in less than 24 hours - $45 to $150. I made test $50 deposit, ran the software and in exactly 24 hours we will check the result. The bot's strategy is super simple and has positive expected value: - works on Polymarket BTC 15min prediction markets - places 45c limit orders on both UP and DOWN outcomes - monitors positions with real-time WebSocket prices - auto redeems resolved positions via gasless relayer If both limit orders fill, total cost for both sides comes to $0.90 instead of $1.00 - guaranteeing 10% profit per cycle. According to the creator's observations, 45¢ limits fill in 9 out of 10 cases. For profitability, we only need about 6 out of 10 successful cycles. There's also a built-in protection feature: if one side spikes above 72¢ while the other remains unfilled, it sells the filled side to cut losses. To set it up, you'll need: - your EVM wallet's private key (use burner wallet) - fund wallet address on Polymarket - Polymarket builder API (Polymarket->Profile->Settings->Builder) - test deposit of $50-100 (script is tuned for $100, adjust share quantities in the code for smaller amounts) Any AI (even ChatGPT) can help you get it running - Python scripts like this are beginner-friendly. If you don't want to risk your own money or deal with setup, just follow me - tomorrow I'll update with the actual results: Does this bot really deliver hundreds of percent returns?

cvxv666

39,886 views • 7 months ago

a MIT quant told me Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets are mathematically broken we were at a bar in cambridge. he was finishing his PhD on market microstructure. third beer in he started drawing on a napkin. "Polymarket runs BTC Up or Down every 5 minutes. 288 markets per day. everyone trades direction. that's the wrong game" "when UP is at 20c and DOWN is at 85c that's $1.05 combined. overpaid. minutes later UP flips to 82c and DOWN drops to 18c. the gap reversed. you buy the cheap side. never predict direction. just capture the mispricing" i asked how he discovered this. "i studied 28,000 of these markets for my dissertation. the crowd injects emotion every 5 minutes. that creates a spread you can harvest mechanically" then i went home that night. opened Claude Opus 4.7. "build a 5-minute BTC spread capture engine for Polymarket. buy the cheap side of UP/DOWN when pair cost drops below 99c. never predict direction" 2,900 stars. 36GB. every trade on Polymarket and Kalshi. Opus built it overnight. NEURAL FLUX. 24 bayesian nodes. scanning every 2ms. the strategy is real. this account runs it live. 28,620 predictions. every trade on-chain: whale alert feed tracks who's moving: > yes 0x47ac...d5e3 BTC+103K 30m $97. > yes smart_money BTC+98K 5m $870. > yes darkpool_7 BTC+102K 15m $97. > no 0xd8dA...6045 BTC+97.5K 5m $1,014. > yes copy_bot BTC+100K 15m $1,014. > no 0xBE0e...48CD BTC+101K 5m $688. edge scanner: 4 live edges. BTC+100K 5m +7.7c. BTC+99.5K 5m +7.2c. BTC<99K 5m +4.2c. BTC+101K 5m +6.8c. $534K volume. 79% win rate. sharpe 3.64. drawdown -1.2%. +$11,681 from $1,200 seed. i copied the setup here: texted him after week one with a screenshot. "you deployed this live?" Claude deployed it. i typed what you drew on the napkin. long pause. "my thesis advisor would lose his mind if he saw this" probably. but the spread doesn't care who captures it.

a MIT quant told me Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets are mathematically broken we were at a bar in cambridge. he was finishing his PhD on market microstructure. third beer in he started drawing on a napkin. "Polymarket runs BTC Up or Down every 5 minutes. 288 markets per day. everyone trades direction. that's the wrong game" "when UP is at 20c and DOWN is at 85c that's $1.05 combined. overpaid. minutes later UP flips to 82c and DOWN drops to 18c. the gap reversed. you buy the cheap side. never predict direction. just capture the mispricing" i asked how he discovered this. "i studied 28,000 of these markets for my dissertation. the crowd injects emotion every 5 minutes. that creates a spread you can harvest mechanically" then i went home that night. opened Claude Opus 4.7. "build a 5-minute BTC spread capture engine for Polymarket. buy the cheap side of UP/DOWN when pair cost drops below 99c. never predict direction" 2,900 stars. 36GB. every trade on Polymarket and Kalshi. Opus built it overnight. NEURAL FLUX. 24 bayesian nodes. scanning every 2ms. the strategy is real. this account runs it live. 28,620 predictions. every trade on-chain: whale alert feed tracks who's moving: > yes 0x47ac...d5e3 BTC+103K 30m $97. > yes smart_money BTC+98K 5m $870. > yes darkpool_7 BTC+102K 15m $97. > no 0xd8dA...6045 BTC+97.5K 5m $1,014. > yes copy_bot BTC+100K 15m $1,014. > no 0xBE0e...48CD BTC+101K 5m $688. edge scanner: 4 live edges. BTC+100K 5m +7.7c. BTC+99.5K 5m +7.2c. BTC<99K 5m +4.2c. BTC+101K 5m +6.8c. $534K volume. 79% win rate. sharpe 3.64. drawdown -1.2%. +$11,681 from $1,200 seed. i copied the setup here: texted him after week one with a screenshot. "you deployed this live?" Claude deployed it. i typed what you drew on the napkin. long pause. "my thesis advisor would lose his mind if he saw this" probably. but the spread doesn't care who captures it.

Hanako

53,824 views • 5 months ago

I gave Claude $100 and told it to exploit Polymarket. No strategy. No instructions. Just full access to my machine and one rule: grow this or get unplugged. It didn't try to predict a single thing. Instead it went hunting for math errors. Here is what it understood that most traders never do: On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to $1. One of them ends at a dollar, the other at zero. Always. But the orderbook is messy. For brief windows YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That is 96 cents to own both sides of a market that pays out a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents of profit that does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned for that gap across every crypto market at once. Hundreds of windows, every second, never tired, never distracted. The moment two sides summed under a dollar, it took both legs before the gap closed. By the end of the day it had stacked those tiny locked margins into $2,890. Not one prediction the entire time. The reason a person cannot do this is simple. These gaps live for seconds. You can watch one market. Automatic bot watches all of them and pounces the instant the math breaks. Leaving a full guide below this post, just use it in your prompt and let AI do the rest of work for you.

I gave Claude $100 and told it to exploit Polymarket. No strategy. No instructions. Just full access to my machine and one rule: grow this or get unplugged. It didn't try to predict a single thing. Instead it went hunting for math errors. Here is what it understood that most traders never do: On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to $1. One of them ends at a dollar, the other at zero. Always. But the orderbook is messy. For brief windows YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That is 96 cents to own both sides of a market that pays out a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents of profit that does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned for that gap across every crypto market at once. Hundreds of windows, every second, never tired, never distracted. The moment two sides summed under a dollar, it took both legs before the gap closed. By the end of the day it had stacked those tiny locked margins into $2,890. Not one prediction the entire time. The reason a person cannot do this is simple. These gaps live for seconds. You can watch one market. Automatic bot watches all of them and pounces the instant the math breaks. Leaving a full guide below this post, just use it in your prompt and let AI do the rest of work for you.

Oracle Boar

48,269 views • 3 months ago