Stefan Burns
@StefanBurnsGeo • 72,619 subscribers
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Two high-magnitude earthquake forecasts for Colombia and Indonesia that I made seven weeks ago the same day as the Venezuela M7.2 & M7.5 earthquakes (06/24/26 have now come to pass. Colombia has a history of big earthquakes close in time to big earthquakes in Venezuela, and it was hit by the M7.4 earthquake just 4 days ago (08/10/26), and the M7.7 that struck Indonesia today (08/14/26) was directly antipodal (opposite side of the globe) to the epicenter of the Venezuela earthquakes. I also successfully forecasted the first megaquake in 4 years, the M8.8 Kamchatka Megaquake of July 29th 2025, 3 days before it occurred based on the anomalous earthquake swarming that was occurring in that location paired with the 4 year megaquake deficit we were in (meaning we were statistically very overdue, typically we have one M8.0+ EQ yearly). In November 2025 when magnitude 5.0+ earthquake swarming struck Japan I then forecasted that high magnitude activity was likely coming based on the intensity and frequency of the growing earthquake swarm. A few days later M6.4 and M6.8 earthquakes struck, and in the months since multiple magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have battered Japan non-stop. That's four different successful earthquake forecasts for most of the strongest earthquakes to have hit Earth over the last year - a very active 12 months seismically. There are other successful forecasts too but we'll stick with these for brevity. There may be some roughness around the edges of earthquake forecasting currently - the holy grail of EQ forecasting is exact location, time, magnitude, and depth - but clearly these different techniques utilized (historic EQ patterns, earthquake swarm activity, EQ antipodes, among others) are informative and have merit based on real-life observations. Space weather, especially coronal hole high-speed-stream impacts, are also super useful for global high-magnitude earthquake forecasting. It's also quite common to see a BIG M7.5+ earthquake strike the same day a significant solar flare and CME launches from anywhere on the Sun. I'll keep research, learning, and sharing with everyone. Thanks so much. Namaste
Stefan Burns69,207 Aufrufe • vor 13 Stunden
A rapid reinflation of Kilauea's magma chamber today August 12th has triggered the first overflow of episode 53. The rapid reinflation follows just after a notable magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck offshore the Big Island at Kama'ehuakanaloa Seamount and the Total Solar Eclipse...
Stefan Burns15,541 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
BOOMSHAKALAKA Another successful long-range #spaceweather forecast completed ✅ On July 30th a 1.9 m-class solar flare exploded from AR4492 with an unusually Earth-directed coronal mass ejection and triggered a S1 radiation storm in < 2 hours (which we are still in), the first S1 radiation storm since May 26th, one day before I issued my long-range #swx forecast (synchronicity) for this timeframe of end of July/Early August based on precisely geometric heliocentric planetary geometry. There is also strong evidence this was jointly triggered by a sundiving comet to that sector of the Sun under the influence of a Jupiter Cazimi. Considering how the planets and comets how a notable influence over solar activity, the choice is to investigate into the phenomenon further or be left behind as science advances. No other "official" agency or outside commentator that I know of provided any guidance or was so precise.
Stefan Burns62,395 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen
Here we observe the seismic waves racing out across North America from the recent very anomalous M6.1 reverse thrust earthquake that struck just off the west coast of Cuba. Weak shaking/jolts were felt across Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and most of Florida.
Stefan Burns136,531 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
If we get a big earthquake to strike Baja, then we can look north and perhaps expect a large earthquake to strike in California soon afterwards. This is exactly what happened in 1906 in April with a M7.3 on April 10th followed by San Francisco's Great M7.9 Earthquake in 1906 💥
Stefan Burns98,816 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
On Thursday SpaceX is set to launch 20 of their new gigantic Starlink V3 satellites via Starship into an orbit that immediately incinerates them, raining ~40,000 kg (88,000 lbs) of space junk down on unsuspecting people. Not only does this disturb sensitive high-altitude atmospheric layers with excess metallic oxides, we've seen large space debris come down before such that it doesn't fully ablate and could literally hit and kill you upon impact. Very unlikely but possible... and consider this. The V1 Starlink weights ~300 kg and V2 ~600 kg. V3 weights close to 2000 kg... 10,000+ Starlinks are already in orbit, and SpaceX want to place tens of thousands more, each with an operational lifespan of ~5 years. Solar storm impacts/geomagnetic storms often knock Starlinks out of their orbit causing them to fail and ablate. Not only is there a huge "churn" on these satellite megaconstellations already (and even more so is expected), but with one BIG solar storm impact (think Carrington level), and hundreds if not thousands could come down en masse, creating an apocalyptic scene in the skies. Anyways have a great Monday!!!!!!!
Stefan Burns40,193 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen
I'm currently without grid power (running on solar) in Pennsylvania where thunderstorms last night ripped through the area. There was almost a shockwave like impact when they first arrived. 1" of rain in ~20 minutes, lightning strikes over the area and tons of cloud to cloud discharges. This is the biggest tree I found that came down, directly on a large sweep of lines. Power is expected to be restored Tuesday or Wednesday... Tens of thousands are without power. There are localized zones where huge trees came down, thick healthy branches twisted and ripped off, and power lines are down all over. Four BIG trees down just in the 2 blocks around where I am clearly in a rough alignment, almost like a mini tornado swept through... This morning I did an extensive survey of the area, some areas were unaffected, others look like war zones. I'll do my best to release an update on this but the solar system i'm running off of is limited in capability.
Stefan Burns50,601 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Here we observe the ground motion (red: up, blue: down) across North America from the strong magnitude 7.0 Hubbard Glacier Earthquake yesterday (12/06/25) as detected by seismographs. Strong seismic waves first propagated across Alaska & Canada, and then across the entire globe!
Stefan Burns162,607 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
