YeahDave
@Yeah_Dave • 32,111 subscribers
Space | Energy | Defense | AI | Quantum | Finance | Posts are for education & discussion, never investment advice. The market pays me, I share everything freely
Videos
$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.
YeahDave207,962 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
$TE T1 Energy Energy is the new currency. AI deals are now measured in GWs. Without power, the AI revolution stalls. Data centers are being booted from cities due to energy concerns. Nat gas buildouts? 3-5 years out. Nuclear? A decade away. But data centers are building NOW. Solar is the only large-scale, rapidly deployable energy source ready today. China has a stranglehold. Even $TSLA doesn't make its own solar panels/cells. Enter FEOC rules (Foreign Entity of Concern): Only modules using U.S.-made cells qualify for the 10% domestic content bonus on top of the 30% ITC through 2029. Imported cells? Disqualifies the whole system. US based and large scale fully integrated publicly traded solar cell producers are very few. Actually there's really just two... 🔸First Solar $FSLR ($25B mkt cap) 🔸T1 Energy $TE ($700M mkt cap) T1 Energy $TE -One of the most vertically integrated solar makers in the U.S. -Texas based -Snagged a Texas solar plant dirt cheap post-Trump election from a Chinese firm. -Rated as having one of the most advanced solar manufacturing facilities in the world. -Another Texas plant online next year -Targeting 10 GW solar production capacity. A nuclear reactor makes ~5GW equivalent. That's two nuclear reactors per year. (there is currently only 13GW solar production capacity in the entire US) -Landmark Corning deal (Aug 2025) locks in U.S.-made polysilicon/wafers from Michigan for a full domestic chain: polysilicon → wafers → cells → panels -Zero China-sourced components in disclosures -It's competitor First Solar $FSLR is 36x the market cap. - $TE revenue surged from $3M (24Q4) to $54M (25Q1) to $133M (25Q2). Q3 estimate is $300M. -Turned positive gross profit this year -Poised for a major lift from Section 45X Production Tax Credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act -Cash projection: >$100M by year-end -P/S (TTM): 3.87 vs. $FSLR's 5.75 -Stock breaking out of multi-year consolidation -Down ~20% in recent pullback $FSLR is the safe pick. $TE? High risk, high reward. As energy desperation ramps up the move on $TE could be eye watering.
YeahDave146,661 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад
V2x Inc $VVX $2B Drones, Greenland, and Golden Dome for 50 cents on the dollar V2X, Inc. $VVX is a defense contractor formed by the 2022 merger of Vectrus and Vertex. The company has TTM revenue of $4.42B and rising, yet trades at a market cap less than half of that. At 11x P/E and 0.45x P/S, the market is valuing them at 45 cents for every $1 of revenue. Why is it it so cheap? The company had been focused on logistics, aerospace maintenance, training, and base operations for the U.S. military and national security clients. Currently it is being passed on by the market as a low margin services company, not a tech hardware company. Net profit margins are historically very tight (~1.8% to 2.5%). They rely on volume, not high markup. The cherry on top is that the company carries over $1.1B debt load and a PE firm has been selling shares. The market has been taking a pass. However there is a change occurring under the surface that the market may be missing. The Greenland Play. Vectrus is the blue-collar half of V2X. They operate in eye popping 329 locations/bases across 47 countries. They fully run six major bases from top to bottom. The crown jewel in this conversation is their Pituffik Base in Greenland. This is the US's only military base in Greenland. As Russia and China aggressively expand their icebreaker fleets, the Arctic is becoming the next major theater of conflict. In addition the region is the critical tracking node for ballistic missile interception. Pituffik is the U.S. military’s foothold in Greenland. V2X doesn't just clean the floors here; they manage everything from the power generation, airfield operations, civil engineering, and survival logistics in -30°F. The company is entrenched. If investment into the Arctic increases, $VVX is essential to that strategy. The Drone Hunter (Project Tempest). The Vertex side is where the high-margin re-rating happens. While the market wasn't looking, V2X deployed their Tempest counter-UAS system into active combat in Ukraine at an unheard of pace. This isn't a multi billion-dollar stationary missile system. It’s a mobile, "shoot-and-scoot" drone denial and scouting/sensing platform that fires mass produced laser-guided rockets to kill drones. They are killing cheap enemy drones with cheap rockets without being an expensive stationary target, thus helping to solve one of the biggest economic problems in modern warfare. They went from prototype to stacking battlefield killchains in months, an unheard of speed, and this was just their first contribution. The Golden Dome. As of Jan 12, they now hold a seat on the $151 Billion SHIELD contract to build the U.S. homeland missile defense shield. They are now at the table for high-end prototyping and sensor integration alongside the giants. What the market is still missing is that they didn't just get a "participation trophy." The award specifically cites V2X for "advanced analytics, rapid prototyping, and sensor integration." They are at the table to design the brain of the system. Remember, they are deeply integrated into hundreds of bases across the world. V2X isn't just a generic bidder either. They already run what will be the eyes of the Dome. Very few seem to have connected these dots. Let me give you an example of one set of these systems. The COBRA DANE & COBRA KING phased arrays. These are not "just radars." These are National Technical Means (NTM), the highest category of strategic assets the U.S. possesses. V2X currently operates and sustains these massive phased-arrays in places like Shemya, Alaska just 450 miles from Russia. These arrays are powerful enough to spot a baseball in space from 2,000 miles away. The COBRA DANE system that V2X runs in Alaska stares unblinkingly at the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Pacific Ocean. Its job is to detect Russian or Chinese ICBM launches instantly. It creates the "data lake" that the entire U.S. Missile Defense System relies on. V2X holds the contract to sustain and operate this facility. Without V2X, the U.S. goes blind in the North Pacific. The COBRA KING system is the "Mobile Eye" at Sea. It is a ship-borne dual-band radar system mounted on the USNS Howard O. Lorenzen. Unlike DANE which is fixed, KING moves. It parks off the coast of rogue nations to monitor missile tests up close. It uses X-band and S-band radars to "fingerprint" enemy warheads, determining if a missile is carrying a nuke or a decoy. V2X maintains the complex mission systems that allow this ship to feed data into the national command network. You can't build a "Golden Dome" without the data from these radars. Because V2X already manages the sensors that detect the missiles, they have a massive advantage in winning the contracts to integrate that data into the new shield. One final point on this topic is that previously the old V2X would wait 5 years for a maintenance contract. The market has not priced in that the new SHIELD approved V2X can now bid on 6-month "sprint" contracts to prototype new sensor fusion algorithms or cyber-hardened command posts. This moves them from "slow government services" to "fast defense tech." The base modernization $40B+ opportunity. The U.S. military has a massive problem. Its bases are falling apart and its networks are from the 90s. V2X holds a spot on the $12B Base Infrastructure Modernization (BIM) IDIQ. If the DOW budget spikes to $1.5T, money will likely flow into "Smart Base" initiatives. This includes upgrading 5G networks, cyber-hardening power grids, and digitizing logistics. V2X is a prime contractor for this. They don't just pour concrete; they install the digital backbone (fiber, sensors, security) that a modern base needs. Soldier Training in the modern AI and computational age. Yes, V2X is a giant here as well. In 2025, V2X won a spot on the U.S. Army's "LTRaC" (Live Training, Ranges, and Combat Training Centers) contract. V2X runs the "war games." When soldiers go to a major training center (like Fort Irwin or JRTC) to simulate fighting Russia or China, V2X provides the simulation tech, the "op-for" (opposing force) logistics, and the augmented reality systems. A massive DOW budget increase typically prioritizes Readiness. If the Army scales up exercises to deter threats, V2X gets paid more for every rotation. There is more, but I will stop here for now. (I haven't even mentioned the LOGCAP V massive Army logistics contract of which V2X is a prime holder). With V2X your getting a lot for shockingly very little. The company is finally realizing the benefits of the Vectrus/Vertex merger and the market is not paying attention. An incredible amount of capital is likely to pour into Greenland and the market is not paying attention. $1.5T is about to pour into the modernization of bases, sensors, and soldier training and the market is not paying attention. They are critical part of the Golden Dome infrastructure and the market has not realized. The debt bear case is dying. Net leverage has already dropped to ~2.6x (down from dangerous highs), and management is using record cash flow to clean up the balance sheet. The pre-planned PE return on investment selling is almost over. You are buying a company with an "Arctic Moat" (Greenland), a Golden Dome/SHIELD essential backbone, and a "Combat Tech" growth engine for 0.45x sales. It might take some time for the market to realize this. This is not a get rich quick play. But if the market wakes up even just a little and re-rates this to even a modest 0.8x sales (still a huge discount to peers), the stock doubles. I think this is an interesting multi-year play to build into. I took a position at $63.
YeahDave78,045 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Congrats Infleqtion on the IPO! $CCCX $INFQ Fascinating interview •Pulls out pocket-sized, room-temp quantum core (no chandelier needed) •Gravity satellites (detecting tunnels, heavy materials/nukes) •Implications for financial infra •Quantum Exec Orders •Threat to $BTC
YeahDave52,899 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
$OUST Ouster is a made in USA play on solid state/digital LiDAR to be used in: -Defense: Anduril drones and cleared by DOD for use in other unmanned systems across the industry -Robotics: last mile driverless delivery, mapping, and humanoid robotics sensors/coordination -Industrial: warehouse automation, agriculture, mining, and construction -Smart City Infrastructure: transportation systems/roads and traffic management, perimeter security, crowd analytics -Automotive: robotaxi, robotrucking, shuttles/busses Digital/solid state lidar benefits from no moving parts and benefits from greater ease of integration into applications (no giant spinning thing). Ouster also makes it's own data processing chips for Lidar as well as mapping software. With the push away from China tech, this one stands to benefit in the coming AI/automation revolution. With a targeted 40% annual growth and 40% gross margins, as well as such a large TAM; it is an interesting play at ~$20, $1B marketcap. It is breaking out after years of consolidation.
YeahDave81,362 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад
Researching $HAWK HawkEye 360 Space/Defense/Sensing Just filed S-1. IPO likely early May. Last private valuation ~$2B. Net income positive (rare in Space sector, let alone prior to IPO). 🔹Only commercial company operating a large-scale (30+ sat) constellation of RF signals intelligence satellites. Detecting, geolocating, and analyzing hidden radio signals that traditional imagery satellites can’t see. 🔹2025 revenue of $117.7M (74% YoY growth and triple 2022 levels), with net income flipping positive at $2.7M and Adjusted EBITDA hitting $24.8M. Seems to be turning the corner from heavy R&D spend to high-margin scaling. 🔹Contract backlog exploded to $302.7M (6x YoY). Recent events will probably push this higher. Multi-year revenue predictability under a recurring, subscription-like model. Pretty rare for the Space sector. 🔹61% of revenue already from pretty big U.S. defense/intelligence customers, with international revenue recently increasing to 39% and climbing fast. Rising defense budgets, electronic warfare, GPS jamming, and maritime threats (South China Sea, Red Sea, etc.) are structural demand drivers that are likely to persist. Biggest Customers: ▫️National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) – #1 customer ▫️National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) ▫️U.S. Space Force ▫️U.S. Navy (significant recurring contracts) DYOR, I am still doing mine but giving you guys an early heads up.
YeahDave16,962 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR
YeahDave27,279 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Больше нет контента для загрузки