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Long-term value in high conviction holdings. All thoughts are my own. NFA

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Chris Hohn argues that you can find a company with a monopoly market share, incredible assets, and theoretical cash flow, but if management views themselves as "totally unaccountable to the wider base" and engages in related-party transactions, the intrinsic value is effectively zero for the minority shareholder. Elite businesses are those where cash flow actually reaches the minority shareholder.

Chris Hohn argues that you can find a company with a monopoly market share, incredible assets, and theoretical cash flow, but if management views themselves as "totally unaccountable to the wider base" and engages in related-party transactions, the intrinsic value is effectively zero for the minority shareholder. Elite businesses are those where cash flow actually reaches the minority shareholder.

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Ackman views $MSFT as having an "impossible to disrupt" position in enterprise software. The base Microsoft 365 package has 450M users at a very low cost per seat, roughly $200 per customer. It would be nearly impossible for an enterprise to replace these various components with 3P vendors, even at twice the price. Microsoft Copilot gives enterprise employees a secure way to access AI tools without putting the company at risk of extreme cloud computing bills or exposing proprietary data.

Ackman views $MSFT as having an "impossible to disrupt" position in enterprise software. The base Microsoft 365 package has 450M users at a very low cost per seat, roughly $200 per customer. It would be nearly impossible for an enterprise to replace these various components with 3P vendors, even at twice the price. Microsoft Copilot gives enterprise employees a secure way to access AI tools without putting the company at risk of extreme cloud computing bills or exposing proprietary data.

730,714 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Bill Ackman on his $UBER thesis from an interview released today: "We think they're a big beneficiary of you know autonomous driving is going to reduce the cost of getting from one place to another is going to reduce insurance costs. These are and that will of course drive more demand right as the price comes down."

Bill Ackman on his $UBER thesis from an interview released today: "We think they're a big beneficiary of you know autonomous driving is going to reduce the cost of getting from one place to another is going to reduce insurance costs. These are and that will of course drive more demand right as the price comes down."

89,396 просмотров • 12 дней назад

In Ackman's latest interview he divides the AI market, stating that it is not a bubble at the foundational layer, but highly risky at the software/model layer. He sees "near infinite demand" for compute. He believes infrastructure providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and even SpaceX will earn massive returns on their data center investments. He is highly skeptical of pure model layer businesses like OpenAI and Anthropic. He notes they face massive capital burn rates and an existential threat from open-source models such as Chinese model and SpaceX that are driving the cost of AI access effectively to zero. A business model reliant on charging for proprietary models will collapse if open-source alternatives are essentially free. $AMZN $META $MSFT $SPCX

In Ackman's latest interview he divides the AI market, stating that it is not a bubble at the foundational layer, but highly risky at the software/model layer. He sees "near infinite demand" for compute. He believes infrastructure providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and even SpaceX will earn massive returns on their data center investments. He is highly skeptical of pure model layer businesses like OpenAI and Anthropic. He notes they face massive capital burn rates and an existential threat from open-source models such as Chinese model and SpaceX that are driving the cost of AI access effectively to zero. A business model reliant on charging for proprietary models will collapse if open-source alternatives are essentially free. $AMZN $META $MSFT $SPCX

137,755 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

SK Hynix chair pushed back on market fears of a memory oversupply. He said that doubling their 25-year capacity in just 5 years is viewed by customers as entirely inadequate. $SKHY

SK Hynix chair pushed back on market fears of a memory oversupply. He said that doubling their 25-year capacity in just 5 years is viewed by customers as entirely inadequate. $SKHY

148,655 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Chief AI Officer Alex Wang is subtly confirming that $META's previous AI paradigm failed, and they are executing a strategic shift to close their ecosystem, capture personal data, and build a regulatory moat. For the last few years, Meta’s entire strategy was to open-source frontier-level models like Llama 2 and 3 to commoditize the foundational layer. Now that Meta is building highly lucrative Personal Agents, they are keeping their best tech proprietary.

Chief AI Officer Alex Wang is subtly confirming that $META's previous AI paradigm failed, and they are executing a strategic shift to close their ecosystem, capture personal data, and build a regulatory moat. For the last few years, Meta’s entire strategy was to open-source frontier-level models like Llama 2 and 3 to commoditize the foundational layer. Now that Meta is building highly lucrative Personal Agents, they are keeping their best tech proprietary.

279,496 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Buffett shared some of his thoughts on the market today. "There are times when opportunities are just thrown at you so fast you can't... And then there's other times when you're very, very lucky if you find one thing in a couple of years." Average investors feel the need to always be doing something. They force trades even when valuations are bad because they conflate activity with productivity. "Since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors... If somebody bought Berkshire 50 years ago, a guy would have made one commission." The modern financial ecosystem is designed to trigger your dopamine receptors and encourage over-trading. Alpha is generated by strictly ignoring the financial noise and refusing to transact frequently.

Buffett shared some of his thoughts on the market today. "There are times when opportunities are just thrown at you so fast you can't... And then there's other times when you're very, very lucky if you find one thing in a couple of years." Average investors feel the need to always be doing something. They force trades even when valuations are bad because they conflate activity with productivity. "Since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors... If somebody bought Berkshire 50 years ago, a guy would have made one commission." The modern financial ecosystem is designed to trigger your dopamine receptors and encourage over-trading. Alpha is generated by strictly ignoring the financial noise and refusing to transact frequently.

111,729 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Ackman on finding alpha: "If you have time to pick stocks, invest in a company that's dominant in its industry. It's the best company in its industry. A company that doesn't use a lot of financial leverage, and a business that you believe will be a much bigger business 5, 10, 15, 20 years from now, and a business that's unlikely to be disrupted by, you know, a couple of women in a garage [who] just left Stanford University with some idea."

Ackman on finding alpha: "If you have time to pick stocks, invest in a company that's dominant in its industry. It's the best company in its industry. A company that doesn't use a lot of financial leverage, and a business that you believe will be a much bigger business 5, 10, 15, 20 years from now, and a business that's unlikely to be disrupted by, you know, a couple of women in a garage [who] just left Stanford University with some idea."

86,196 просмотров • 27 дней назад

Zuckerberg reveals that the near-term unlock for AI is agentic AI. This is moving away from the one-question, one-answer prompt model. $META is pivoting its consumer hardware to facilitate an always-on AI assistant. Zuckerberg envisions users tuning their glasses from 30 minutes of live AI engagement to eventually all day. The AI will proactively watch, listen, and offer assistance without being explicitly prompted. The glasses are the mechanism for this level of AI context. Smartphones in pockets cannot provide the continuous visual and auditory data stream needed for ambient AI. I see the vision 😏

Zuckerberg reveals that the near-term unlock for AI is agentic AI. This is moving away from the one-question, one-answer prompt model. $META is pivoting its consumer hardware to facilitate an always-on AI assistant. Zuckerberg envisions users tuning their glasses from 30 minutes of live AI engagement to eventually all day. The AI will proactively watch, listen, and offer assistance without being explicitly prompted. The glasses are the mechanism for this level of AI context. Smartphones in pockets cannot provide the continuous visual and auditory data stream needed for ambient AI. I see the vision 😏

144,650 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Bruce Flatt and Jensen Huang teaming up on CNBC was absolute cinema. With 14 nuclear plants currently in construction phases and plans for 140 more, base-load, carbon-free nuclear energy is being aggressively positioned as the backbone of the AI infra boom: "We have 14 nuclear plants that were in various stages of construction today... And it will be another 40 with another hundred coming... this is the first time in a long time that market-driven forces can build out the sustainable energy necessary around the world. This is without government funding." $BN $BAM $NVDA

Bruce Flatt and Jensen Huang teaming up on CNBC was absolute cinema. With 14 nuclear plants currently in construction phases and plans for 140 more, base-load, carbon-free nuclear energy is being aggressively positioned as the backbone of the AI infra boom: "We have 14 nuclear plants that were in various stages of construction today... And it will be another 40 with another hundred coming... this is the first time in a long time that market-driven forces can build out the sustainable energy necessary around the world. This is without government funding." $BN $BAM $NVDA

19,604 просмотров • 6 дней назад

When asked about the ratio of successful bets to failures, Zuckerberg dismissed the concept of a "batting average" in tech creation. He argued that in creation, "the upside is almost infinite," meaning a single product reaching billions of users financially eclipses numerous failed, expensive hardware experiments. He said that Meta's company culture is "not very afraid of failure" and can "tolerate being ridiculed for long periods of time". Zuckerberg views expensive experimentation not as sunk costs or failures, but as the necessary "price of learning" in a market where you must build things physically to see if they work. For a long-term strategist, this means Meta's R&D budget will remain highly aggressive, and they are structurally insulated against short-term Wall Street pressure to pull back on currently unprofitable bets. $META

When asked about the ratio of successful bets to failures, Zuckerberg dismissed the concept of a "batting average" in tech creation. He argued that in creation, "the upside is almost infinite," meaning a single product reaching billions of users financially eclipses numerous failed, expensive hardware experiments. He said that Meta's company culture is "not very afraid of failure" and can "tolerate being ridiculed for long periods of time". Zuckerberg views expensive experimentation not as sunk costs or failures, but as the necessary "price of learning" in a market where you must build things physically to see if they work. For a long-term strategist, this means Meta's R&D budget will remain highly aggressive, and they are structurally insulated against short-term Wall Street pressure to pull back on currently unprofitable bets. $META

126,419 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Meta CTO confirmed that over the last year Zuck had to go founder mode. He also really appreciated Alexandr Wang joining the team last year. To build their latest model, Meta executed an emergency pivot, pulling thousands of employees off their normal duties to generate expert traces, which are hand-guided coding examples required to post-train the model. This confirms that the bottleneck for frontier models is not just raw compute, but high-fidelity, human-verified reinforcement data. Good listen. $META

Meta CTO confirmed that over the last year Zuck had to go founder mode. He also really appreciated Alexandr Wang joining the team last year. To build their latest model, Meta executed an emergency pivot, pulling thousands of employees off their normal duties to generate expert traces, which are hand-guided coding examples required to post-train the model. This confirms that the bottleneck for frontier models is not just raw compute, but high-fidelity, human-verified reinforcement data. Good listen. $META

92,351 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

For those asking if I’m interested in $MSFT or $META for that matter. I think we are getting close to Jim pulling off a nearly perfect market bottom capitulation again. Not sure if its a month from now or a year but I think we get another one of these gems soon.

For those asking if I’m interested in $MSFT or $META for that matter. I think we are getting close to Jim pulling off a nearly perfect market bottom capitulation again. Not sure if its a month from now or a year but I think we get another one of these gems soon.

118,907 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Legendary Investor Seth Klarman notes that buying something just because it is cheap at a five-year low often just means you will ride it down to a ten-year low. Instead, Baupost underwrites the "expected go-forward return" and demands a specific catalyst. If the team cannot articulate exactly what will drive the success of the investment and unlock its value within one to two years, they pass. Seems like common sense, but this is one of the biggest traps investors fall into. Valuation always matters but you are far better off buying businesses that exceed expectations for the long-term.

Legendary Investor Seth Klarman notes that buying something just because it is cheap at a five-year low often just means you will ride it down to a ten-year low. Instead, Baupost underwrites the "expected go-forward return" and demands a specific catalyst. If the team cannot articulate exactly what will drive the success of the investment and unlock its value within one to two years, they pass. Seems like common sense, but this is one of the biggest traps investors fall into. Valuation always matters but you are far better off buying businesses that exceed expectations for the long-term.

88,496 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Li Lu sharing some investing wisdom Munget taught him: "Munger's fifth point is that investing is like fishing: you have to fish where the fish are. The two rules of fishing are: Rule number one, fish where the fish are. Rule number two, never forget rule number one." "You don't need to understand the entire macro economy, nor do you need to figure out all 100,000 lakes in Minnesota... You just need to know your own small pond, which pond has the fish you can catch... The best scenario is that you're the only one fishing there, and nobody else even knows about it. That guarantees you'll catch the most fish." Alpha is generated by avoiding efficient arenas entirely and building a monopolistic understanding of a niche where mispricing is guaranteed.

Li Lu sharing some investing wisdom Munget taught him: "Munger's fifth point is that investing is like fishing: you have to fish where the fish are. The two rules of fishing are: Rule number one, fish where the fish are. Rule number two, never forget rule number one." "You don't need to understand the entire macro economy, nor do you need to figure out all 100,000 lakes in Minnesota... You just need to know your own small pond, which pond has the fish you can catch... The best scenario is that you're the only one fishing there, and nobody else even knows about it. That guarantees you'll catch the most fish." Alpha is generated by avoiding efficient arenas entirely and building a monopolistic understanding of a niche where mispricing is guaranteed.

62,706 просмотров • 29 дней назад

Bill Nygren of Oakmark fund noted that the S&P 500 used to be a diversified hedge against general living expenses, but has devolved into a concentrated bet on tech. He also believes as the market is hyper-fixated on AI hardware that it is mispricing software and financials.

Bill Nygren of Oakmark fund noted that the S&P 500 used to be a diversified hedge against general living expenses, but has devolved into a concentrated bet on tech. He also believes as the market is hyper-fixated on AI hardware that it is mispricing software and financials.

53,769 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Ackman on attempting to predict the markets in the short-term: "It's a fool's errand to predict what the stock market's going to do in the short term." Ackman on the market's current multiple: "People say, 'Oh, it's overvalued,' but I would argue that the business mix... is a very different business mix than it was 30 years ago. They're deserving of much higher valuations." Bill acknowledged $MSFT and $AMZN are both trading at very attractive multiples. He even gave a shout-out to $NVDA 👀 when mentioning the index's composition is now dominated by high-margin, high-growth technology companies that deserve higher premiums than the legacy industrial mix of 30 years ago.

Ackman on attempting to predict the markets in the short-term: "It's a fool's errand to predict what the stock market's going to do in the short term." Ackman on the market's current multiple: "People say, 'Oh, it's overvalued,' but I would argue that the business mix... is a very different business mix than it was 30 years ago. They're deserving of much higher valuations." Bill acknowledged $MSFT and $AMZN are both trading at very attractive multiples. He even gave a shout-out to $NVDA 👀 when mentioning the index's composition is now dominated by high-margin, high-growth technology companies that deserve higher premiums than the legacy industrial mix of 30 years ago.

50,399 просмотров • 28 дней назад

One important lesson for all investors comes from Berkshire's Ajit Jain's exact mandate to his underwriting team: "Your job is to say no. Every now and then you will come across a deal that'll hit you with a 2x4 and it'll be screaming money." Abel and Jain are not budging. They are earning a risk-free yield and waiting for structural market dislocation. The capital discipline remains ruthless. $BRK.A $BRK.B

One important lesson for all investors comes from Berkshire's Ajit Jain's exact mandate to his underwriting team: "Your job is to say no. Every now and then you will come across a deal that'll hit you with a 2x4 and it'll be screaming money." Abel and Jain are not budging. They are earning a risk-free yield and waiting for structural market dislocation. The capital discipline remains ruthless. $BRK.A $BRK.B

154,500 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Bill Ackman on a diversified portfolio: "Diversification protects you from ignorance. Right? If you don't know what you're doing just do a lot of things." If your research correctly identifies the fundamental quality and durable cash flows of a business, extreme concentration is the logical way to beat the market. The wealthiest founders build their fortunes on a "portfolio of one". Ackman said for stock pickers, conducting deep business research, holding just 10 to 12 highly predictable companies provides more than adequate risk management. My only caveat is people vastly underestimate the risks of a business and overestimate their true understanding of the business. This is the single biggest issue with high concentration.

Bill Ackman on a diversified portfolio: "Diversification protects you from ignorance. Right? If you don't know what you're doing just do a lot of things." If your research correctly identifies the fundamental quality and durable cash flows of a business, extreme concentration is the logical way to beat the market. The wealthiest founders build their fortunes on a "portfolio of one". Ackman said for stock pickers, conducting deep business research, holding just 10 to 12 highly predictable companies provides more than adequate risk management. My only caveat is people vastly underestimate the risks of a business and overestimate their true understanding of the business. This is the single biggest issue with high concentration.

35,300 просмотров • 29 дней назад

Just last week $NOW CEO Bill McDermott had an hour-long interview on the No Priors podcast. He gave away several operational metrics that were missing. This gives a clearer look at their real competitive advantage right now. First, he shut down the analyst narrative about integration risk. On the earnings call, Wall Street worried that merging Moveworks, Veza, and Armis all at once would break the core platform. McDermott revealed they can fully integrated all of these businesses into the core system in just 20 days. That kind of engineering speed is impressive for major enterprise software mergers. It proves their internal architecture is incredibly agile. Enterprise deployment times have collapsed. Historically, big software installations take months or even years. McDermott stated that massive customers are now going live on their autonomous platform in under 30 days. This completely changes the return on investment math for buyers. If a CIO can show value in one month instead of one year, budget approvals happen much faster. He specifically noted that "the dance has gotten brief" and customers are making highly decisive, rapid purchasing choices. He finally explained the math behind his claim that building AI workflows from scratch costs ten times more than buying ServiceNow. It is not just a marketing number. They factored in three specific costs. They added up the massive cost of human capital required to write new code to mimic existing workflows. Then they added the capital expenditure of the necessary GPU compute. And finally, they added the ongoing variable cost of language model tokens. When you stack those three expenses, trying to replace their platform with raw AI becomes an incredibly difficult financial decision. He also dropped a massive usage statistic to prove their scale. They currently process 7 TRILLION transactions across 85B active workflows. McDermott gave a rare look at his daily sales management. He personally sat down for one-on-one calls with 17 different quota-carrying sales reps just yesterday. He has 72 of these calls scheduled for this month alone. A CEO of a company this size directly interviewing ground-level salespeople shows intense, micromanaged execution. It also means management has a flawless, real-time read on exactly what enterprise buyers are doing. It is easier to trust their forward guidance because the CEO is literally talking to the people closing the deals every single day. Wow!

Just last week $NOW CEO Bill McDermott had an hour-long interview on the No Priors podcast. He gave away several operational metrics that were missing. This gives a clearer look at their real competitive advantage right now. First, he shut down the analyst narrative about integration risk. On the earnings call, Wall Street worried that merging Moveworks, Veza, and Armis all at once would break the core platform. McDermott revealed they can fully integrated all of these businesses into the core system in just 20 days. That kind of engineering speed is impressive for major enterprise software mergers. It proves their internal architecture is incredibly agile. Enterprise deployment times have collapsed. Historically, big software installations take months or even years. McDermott stated that massive customers are now going live on their autonomous platform in under 30 days. This completely changes the return on investment math for buyers. If a CIO can show value in one month instead of one year, budget approvals happen much faster. He specifically noted that "the dance has gotten brief" and customers are making highly decisive, rapid purchasing choices. He finally explained the math behind his claim that building AI workflows from scratch costs ten times more than buying ServiceNow. It is not just a marketing number. They factored in three specific costs. They added up the massive cost of human capital required to write new code to mimic existing workflows. Then they added the capital expenditure of the necessary GPU compute. And finally, they added the ongoing variable cost of language model tokens. When you stack those three expenses, trying to replace their platform with raw AI becomes an incredibly difficult financial decision. He also dropped a massive usage statistic to prove their scale. They currently process 7 TRILLION transactions across 85B active workflows. McDermott gave a rare look at his daily sales management. He personally sat down for one-on-one calls with 17 different quota-carrying sales reps just yesterday. He has 72 of these calls scheduled for this month alone. A CEO of a company this size directly interviewing ground-level salespeople shows intense, micromanaged execution. It also means management has a flawless, real-time read on exactly what enterprise buyers are doing. It is easier to trust their forward guidance because the CEO is literally talking to the people closing the deals every single day. Wow!

120,541 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Ackman’s core thesis for 2026 is exploiting market distraction. While capital rotates heavily into the 'AI race,' semiconductor manufacturers, and new IPOs like $SPCX, Pershing Square is taking concentrated, heavy positions in what the market currently dismisses as 'old tech'. Ackman argued the market is ignoring $MSFT and $AMZN's near-infinite runway in cloud computing. He views $AMZN as one of the most dominant companies in history because it maintains its moat not by pushing prices up, but by aggressively driving down delivery times and costs. He views $META not as a legacy social network, but as an immediate beneficiary of AI. AI has significantly optimized Meta's ad delivery, simultaneously increasing advertiser ROI and user engagement.

Ackman’s core thesis for 2026 is exploiting market distraction. While capital rotates heavily into the 'AI race,' semiconductor manufacturers, and new IPOs like $SPCX, Pershing Square is taking concentrated, heavy positions in what the market currently dismisses as 'old tech'. Ackman argued the market is ignoring $MSFT and $AMZN's near-infinite runway in cloud computing. He views $AMZN as one of the most dominant companies in history because it maintains its moat not by pushing prices up, but by aggressively driving down delivery times and costs. He views $META not as a legacy social network, but as an immediate beneficiary of AI. AI has significantly optimized Meta's ad delivery, simultaneously increasing advertiser ROI and user engagement.

66,285 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад