Forward Guidance's banner

Forward Guidance

@ForwardGuidance • 28,227 subscribers

Macro Investing Podcast Hosted by @fejau_inc Telegram: https://t.co/cccyP3IXAA

Shorts

The dollar wrecking ball could smash this year’s winners. Precious metals and other dollar-bearish trades dominated the past year, but a return to the dollar could test a lot of positioning fejau

The dollar wrecking ball could smash this year’s winners. Precious metals and other dollar-bearish trades dominated the past year, but a return to the dollar could test a lot of positioning fejau

26,298 просмотров

Videos

Anya Rossi

sweetdream.ai

SweetDream.ai•Sponsored•Livecam

Watch Anya Live

Anya is streaming live right now! Join her private show and enjoy exclusive content.

Exclusive private shows

1.2k viewers online

Private Show

Join now for exclusive access

Free preview available • Premium content

What will Warsh do this Friday at Jackson Hole? fejau argues he may use hawkish rhetoric as a substitute for tightening with no rate decision actually on the line. “Jackson Hole gives him a chance to talk a big game, try to tame the long end, and then just reverse course in September.”

What will Warsh do this Friday at Jackson Hole? fejau argues he may use hawkish rhetoric as a substitute for tightening with no rate decision actually on the line. “Jackson Hole gives him a chance to talk a big game, try to tame the long end, and then just reverse course in September.”

Forward Guidance

114,608 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Is a 6% 10-year next? 🔸 What the Fed can't fix 🔸 Can consumers survive? 🔸 The trade after something breaks 🔸 Where to fade hike pricing DCP Quinn Thompson fejau TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Is a 6% 10-year next? 🔸 What the Fed can't fix 🔸 Can consumers survive? 🔸 The trade after something breaks 🔸 Where to fade hike pricing DCP Quinn Thompson fejau TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

Forward Guidance

46,200 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

AI may be repeating crypto’s biggest 2021 valuation mistake. fejau argues frontier models look a lot like the old fat-L1 thesis: huge valuations built on the assumption that infrastructure captures most of the value, even as competition commoditizes the underlying layer.

AI may be repeating crypto’s biggest 2021 valuation mistake. fejau argues frontier models look a lot like the old fat-L1 thesis: huge valuations built on the assumption that infrastructure captures most of the value, even as competition commoditizes the underlying layer.

Forward Guidance

54,123 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 Bessent’s Yentervention 🔸 Arrival of state capitalism 🔸 Hyperscaler bonds 🔸 Nuclear supercycle? 🔸 Bitcoin’s turning point & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts

NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 Bessent’s Yentervention 🔸 Arrival of state capitalism 🔸 Hyperscaler bonds 🔸 Nuclear supercycle? 🔸 Bitcoin’s turning point & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts

Forward Guidance

37,451 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

NEW POD with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vladimir Novakovski We cover: 🔸 Markets going 24/7 🔸 Perps vs CFDs 🔸 Pre-IPO and oil perps 🔸 The US perps path 🔸 Robinhood Chain first 100 days TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain 04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid? 06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream 09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps 13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right? 15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance 18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned

NEW POD with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vladimir Novakovski We cover: 🔸 Markets going 24/7 🔸 Perps vs CFDs 🔸 Pre-IPO and oil perps 🔸 The US perps path 🔸 Robinhood Chain first 100 days TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain 04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid? 06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream 09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps 13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right? 15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance 18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned

Forward Guidance

11,945 просмотров • 24 дней назад

Bessent's Yentervention was a way to weaken the dollar without putting pressure on the long end. He used euros and alternative liquidity facilities to avoid selling Treasuries while still defending the Yen.

Bessent's Yentervention was a way to weaken the dollar without putting pressure on the long end. He used euros and alternative liquidity facilities to avoid selling Treasuries while still defending the Yen.

Forward Guidance

24,767 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

What if the Greenland narrative is all about military readiness? Cem Karsan 🥐 Trump's rhetoric gives Europe political cover to ramp defense spending, deploy forces, and move onto a wartime footing without admitting that the strategic environment has already shifted.

What if the Greenland narrative is all about military readiness? Cem Karsan 🥐 Trump's rhetoric gives Europe political cover to ramp defense spending, deploy forces, and move onto a wartime footing without admitting that the strategic environment has already shifted.

Forward Guidance

38,859 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Everyone bought protection. Nobody reduced risk. Put buying replaced de-risking, but elevated volatility and theta decay mean hedges bleed while longs fall. Quinn Thompson fejau “Puts haven't made any money for weeks…this is truly max pain.”

Everyone bought protection. Nobody reduced risk. Put buying replaced de-risking, but elevated volatility and theta decay mean hedges bleed while longs fall. Quinn Thompson fejau “Puts haven't made any money for weeks…this is truly max pain.”

Forward Guidance

32,394 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

ICYMI, Weekly Roundup out now! 🔥 We discuss: - The biggest takeaways from the Fed Minutes (QT ending?) - Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation - The near-term liquidity picture - The limited upside in crypto right now, and more! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:33 FOMC Meeting Minutes 06:29 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases 16:20 Skale Ad 16:42 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) 20:15 Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective 22:41 Skale Ad 23:12 Liquidity Concerns and QT 27:07 Inflation and Economic Growth 29:11 Oil & Global Energy Policies 32:21 Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx 33:43 Yen & DAX 38:09 Crypto Market Update 45:02 Final Thoughts Quinn Thompson fejau Links below 👇

ICYMI, Weekly Roundup out now! 🔥 We discuss: - The biggest takeaways from the Fed Minutes (QT ending?) - Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation - The near-term liquidity picture - The limited upside in crypto right now, and more! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:33 FOMC Meeting Minutes 06:29 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases 16:20 Skale Ad 16:42 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) 20:15 Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective 22:41 Skale Ad 23:12 Liquidity Concerns and QT 27:07 Inflation and Economic Growth 29:11 Oil & Global Energy Policies 32:21 Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx 33:43 Yen & DAX 38:09 Crypto Market Update 45:02 Final Thoughts Quinn Thompson fejau Links below 👇

Forward Guidance

49,234 просмотров • 1 год назад

ICYMI NEW POD: Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive We Cover: 🔸 Trump market management 🔸 Peak hawkishness? 🔸 Asymmetric rates trade 🔸 Will AI politics hit markets? Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook 08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap 12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds 17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed 21:48 Mag Loses Leadership 28:54 The AI Capex Risk 30:17 The Best Rates Trade 34:20 Policy Powers The AI War 38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets? 43:52 The AI Access Divide 50:34 The Centralization Trade

ICYMI NEW POD: Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive We Cover: 🔸 Trump market management 🔸 Peak hawkishness? 🔸 Asymmetric rates trade 🔸 Will AI politics hit markets? Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook 08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap 12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds 17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed 21:48 Mag Loses Leadership 28:54 The AI Capex Risk 30:17 The Best Rates Trade 34:20 Policy Powers The AI War 38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets? 43:52 The AI Access Divide 50:34 The Centralization Trade

Forward Guidance

12,874 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Three bubbles, one revolution “Every major revolution in history has rapid technological change, accelerating nominal growth, and a sense that things are unraveling.” Vincent Deluard

Three bubbles, one revolution “Every major revolution in history has rapid technological change, accelerating nominal growth, and a sense that things are unraveling.” Vincent Deluard

Forward Guidance

19,070 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

DOGE failed. All of us all the losers because of it Jim Bianco

DOGE failed. All of us all the losers because of it Jim Bianco

Forward Guidance

28,691 просмотров • 1 год назад

NEW ROUNDUP: Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech We Cover: 🔸 Metals supercycle 🔸 Economic re-acceleration 🔸 Trading CapEx bottlenecks 🔸 Geopolitics, tariff ruling & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:03 Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade 07:52 Yield Curve Steepening 09:22 GDPNow & The Trade Deficit 13:42 Grayscale Ad 14:24 Economic Reacceleration 16:22 Market Rotation & K-Reversal 18:53 Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? 20:40 The New G2 World 22:56 Who’s Buying Bonds? 26:50 Grayscale Ad 27:40 Small Cap & Metals Rotation 30:43 Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle 37:26 SCOTUS Tariff Ruling 43:23 Making Moves For Midterms 46:34 Short Mag7 & Follow The Government 49:13 Commodities and Metals 51:02 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

NEW ROUNDUP: Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech We Cover: 🔸 Metals supercycle 🔸 Economic re-acceleration 🔸 Trading CapEx bottlenecks 🔸 Geopolitics, tariff ruling & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:03 Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade 07:52 Yield Curve Steepening 09:22 GDPNow & The Trade Deficit 13:42 Grayscale Ad 14:24 Economic Reacceleration 16:22 Market Rotation & K-Reversal 18:53 Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? 20:40 The New G2 World 22:56 Who’s Buying Bonds? 26:50 Grayscale Ad 27:40 Small Cap & Metals Rotation 30:43 Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle 37:26 SCOTUS Tariff Ruling 43:23 Making Moves For Midterms 46:34 Short Mag7 & Follow The Government 49:13 Commodities and Metals 51:02 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

Forward Guidance

14,685 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад