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AI may be repeating crypto’s biggest 2021 valuation mistake. fejau argues frontier models look a lot like the old fat-L1 thesis: huge valuations built on the assumption that infrastructure captures most of the value, even as competition commoditizes the underlying layer.

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51,912 次观看 • 26 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Gavin Baker Gavin Baker says open source is "awesome" for AI infrastructure names because it shifts the economic value from the frontier labs to the infrastructure, and it is already 80% plus of all tokens processed. "A misconception that a lot of people have is that open source models are somehow bad for AI. They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure." "But I do think there's still a role for these frontier models. And it may be true, to date, frontier tokens are capturing 90% of the economic value, and open source tokens are probably 80% plus of tokens processed, and those ratios may be here to stay." _______ Follow Fireside Alpha for more highlights of the best business and technology conversations.

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker says open source is "awesome" for AI infrastructure names because it shifts the economic value from the frontier labs to the infrastructure, and it is already 80% plus of all tokens processed. "A misconception that a lot of people have is that open source models are somehow bad for AI. They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure." "But I do think there's still a role for these frontier models. And it may be true, to date, frontier tokens are capturing 90% of the economic value, and open source tokens are probably 80% plus of tokens processed, and those ratios may be here to stay." _______ Follow Fireside Alpha for more highlights of the best business and technology conversations.

Fireside Alpha

162,832 次观看 • 2 个月前

Bloomberg warns that China’s AI price war may make profitability difficult for years. They should be more worried about Wall Street. If the price war continues, the real casualty may not be AI. It may be the entire valuation structure built around it. OpenAI and Anthropic are valued as though frontier intelligence will remain scarce, expensive, and capable of producing software-like margins. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure based on that assumption. Nvidia’s valuation depends on those capital expenditures continuing for years. But Chinese models are driving token prices toward commodity levels. Usage can explode while revenue per token collapses. The servers become busier. The models become cheaper. The profits fail to appear. Nvidia has real revenue and real margins, so it is not the weakest link. But even Nvidia is priced on the belief that today’s extraordinary AI capital expenditure will remain economically justified. If cheaper models, better efficiency, and open weights destroy the expected returns on that infrastructure, Wall Street will not merely reprice OpenAI and Anthropic. It will reprice the entire AI chain. America built the AI bubble on Nvidia. Nvidia built its empire on TSMC. Taiwan built its economic security around TSMC. If Chinese efficiency destroys the economics of brute-force AI, the repricing will not stop in Silicon Valley. It will cross the Pacific and land in Hsinchu. AI may continue transforming the world while the AI bubble collapses. The internet survived 2000. The valuations did not.

Bloomberg warns that China’s AI price war may make profitability difficult for years. They should be more worried about Wall Street. If the price war continues, the real casualty may not be AI. It may be the entire valuation structure built around it. OpenAI and Anthropic are valued as though frontier intelligence will remain scarce, expensive, and capable of producing software-like margins. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure based on that assumption. Nvidia’s valuation depends on those capital expenditures continuing for years. But Chinese models are driving token prices toward commodity levels. Usage can explode while revenue per token collapses. The servers become busier. The models become cheaper. The profits fail to appear. Nvidia has real revenue and real margins, so it is not the weakest link. But even Nvidia is priced on the belief that today’s extraordinary AI capital expenditure will remain economically justified. If cheaper models, better efficiency, and open weights destroy the expected returns on that infrastructure, Wall Street will not merely reprice OpenAI and Anthropic. It will reprice the entire AI chain. America built the AI bubble on Nvidia. Nvidia built its empire on TSMC. Taiwan built its economic security around TSMC. If Chinese efficiency destroys the economics of brute-force AI, the repricing will not stop in Silicon Valley. It will cross the Pacific and land in Hsinchu. AI may continue transforming the world while the AI bubble collapses. The internet survived 2000. The valuations did not.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

13,962 次观看 • 1 个月前

Interesting that in three of my recent conversations with Krishna at Anthropic, Dylan Patel, and Gavin Baker, each said that frontier tokens are capturing the majority of the economic value. Gavin: "An overwhelming amount of the economic returns to AI at the model layer have been at the frontier. That's surprising to me, and I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. This is one of the most important questions to be answered, and you need to have a hypothesis on it as an investor." Krishna: "We think the returns to frontier intelligence are extremely high. Customers invest really heavily in more tokens with the newer models. The ones at the frontier clearly are capturing this economic value, driving meaningful ROI for customers. The returns to frontier intelligence are not slowing down." Dylan: "No one gives a crap about GPT-4 class models. They want the frontier because the frontier lets them create the economically valuable things."

Interesting that in three of my recent conversations with Krishna at Anthropic, Dylan Patel, and Gavin Baker, each said that frontier tokens are capturing the majority of the economic value. Gavin: "An overwhelming amount of the economic returns to AI at the model layer have been at the frontier. That's surprising to me, and I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. This is one of the most important questions to be answered, and you need to have a hypothesis on it as an investor." Krishna: "We think the returns to frontier intelligence are extremely high. Customers invest really heavily in more tokens with the newer models. The ones at the frontier clearly are capturing this economic value, driving meaningful ROI for customers. The returns to frontier intelligence are not slowing down." Dylan: "No one gives a crap about GPT-4 class models. They want the frontier because the frontier lets them create the economically valuable things."

Patrick OShaughnessy

121,392 次观看 • 4 个月前

.Nick Grossman is betting that in the future, AI agents will look more like cloud infrastructure than digital employees. "Part of the Rebel Alliance thesis for us is that agents are moving from personified people you hire to cloud infrastructure." "We're not just talking about, 'Will there be other agents that compete with Claude or ChatGPT?' I think that's one version of what agents look like. Another version is cloud infrastructure where every company that's building any system is going to have agents and the orchestration of hundreds or thousands of agents built into their underlying platform." "If you think of agents as infrastructure as opposed to agents as employees, I think that's where a lot of these forces come into play."

.Nick Grossman is betting that in the future, AI agents will look more like cloud infrastructure than digital employees. "Part of the Rebel Alliance thesis for us is that agents are moving from personified people you hire to cloud infrastructure." "We're not just talking about, 'Will there be other agents that compete with Claude or ChatGPT?' I think that's one version of what agents look like. Another version is cloud infrastructure where every company that's building any system is going to have agents and the orchestration of hundreds or thousands of agents built into their underlying platform." "If you think of agents as infrastructure as opposed to agents as employees, I think that's where a lot of these forces come into play."

TBPN

30,503 次观看 • 2 个月前

Why Most Layer 1s Won’t Justify Their Valuations in 2026 (And Where the Real Upside Is) w/ Santiago R Santos Crypto has built massive infrastructure. But ~90% of valuations sit at Layer 1s while <20% of revenue does. That gap matters a lot heading into 2026. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:48 – Key Takeaways From the L1 Valuation Debate 05:13 – Why Launch a New L1? 10:40 – Is Crypto Really Enterprise Software? 15:50 – Too Many L1s? 19:16 – Why DePIN Is Undervalued 25:36 – Bridge 25:59 – Reserve 26:25 – Crypto Regulation & the Clarity Act 32:47 – $BTC & Crypto Outlook for 2026 43:11 – Chainlink 43:32 – Final Thoughts: Where Crypto Goes Next

Why Most Layer 1s Won’t Justify Their Valuations in 2026 (And Where the Real Upside Is) w/ Santiago R Santos Crypto has built massive infrastructure. But ~90% of valuations sit at Layer 1s while <20% of revenue does. That gap matters a lot heading into 2026. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:48 – Key Takeaways From the L1 Valuation Debate 05:13 – Why Launch a New L1? 10:40 – Is Crypto Really Enterprise Software? 15:50 – Too Many L1s? 19:16 – Why DePIN Is Undervalued 25:36 – Bridge 25:59 – Reserve 26:25 – Crypto Regulation & the Clarity Act 32:47 – $BTC & Crypto Outlook for 2026 43:11 – Chainlink 43:32 – Final Thoughts: Where Crypto Goes Next

Milk Road Crypto

29,490 次观看 • 9 个月前

Jensen Huang just told the smartest founders in AI they’re building a commodity. Not a platform. Not a moat. A commodity. Huang: “AI is actually essentially a five-layer cake.” Energy. Chips. Cloud. Models. Applications. Five layers. The entire industry is crowded onto one. Huang: “This is where most people think AI is.” The model layer. Most money. Most talent. Most competition. Most competition always ends the same way. A commodity. The harder they compete, the faster they erase their own value. That’s not a failure of strategy. That’s the strategy working. Huang: “At the bottom is energy.” No algorithm solves a power grid. No fundraise builds a dam. For decades everyone assumed intelligence would be the scarce resource. AI proved the opposite. Intelligence scales. Energy doesn’t. The bottleneck was never thinking. It was always power. Huang: “This layer on top ultimately is where economic benefit will happen.” The top captures revenue. The bottom controls access. The middle converts one into the other. Hundreds of billions deployed between someone else’s power grid and someone else’s economy. Most funded layer in history. Least defensible layer in the stack. The most intelligent thing ever built sits in the one position where intelligence doesn’t matter.

Jensen Huang just told the smartest founders in AI they’re building a commodity. Not a platform. Not a moat. A commodity. Huang: “AI is actually essentially a five-layer cake.” Energy. Chips. Cloud. Models. Applications. Five layers. The entire industry is crowded onto one. Huang: “This is where most people think AI is.” The model layer. Most money. Most talent. Most competition. Most competition always ends the same way. A commodity. The harder they compete, the faster they erase their own value. That’s not a failure of strategy. That’s the strategy working. Huang: “At the bottom is energy.” No algorithm solves a power grid. No fundraise builds a dam. For decades everyone assumed intelligence would be the scarce resource. AI proved the opposite. Intelligence scales. Energy doesn’t. The bottleneck was never thinking. It was always power. Huang: “This layer on top ultimately is where economic benefit will happen.” The top captures revenue. The bottom controls access. The middle converts one into the other. Hundreds of billions deployed between someone else’s power grid and someone else’s economy. Most funded layer in history. Least defensible layer in the stack. The most intelligent thing ever built sits in the one position where intelligence doesn’t matter.

Dustin

20,739 次观看 • 2 个月前

The next economy won't be visible to humans. AI agents will transact, settle, and coordinate value at machine speed, and the only rails built for that are crypto. In this episode of The Journeyman, I explain why the major layer 1s aren't just crypto infrastructure. They're the coordination substrate for an invisible economy that's already being built. As ever, please enjoy!

The next economy won't be visible to humans. AI agents will transact, settle, and coordinate value at machine speed, and the only rails built for that are crypto. In this episode of The Journeyman, I explain why the major layer 1s aren't just crypto infrastructure. They're the coordination substrate for an invisible economy that's already being built. As ever, please enjoy!

Raoul Pal

119,593 次观看 • 3 个月前

$WDC CEO says storage demand and requirement compound and grow whether AI runs on US frontier models or cheaper open-source ones. "Whether it's the traditional frontier models that you've seen in the U.S. that are premium-based, or some of the new open-source, more economical models, the underlying requirement is still that they're going to require a lot of data to support the training of these models." "These models are going to generate a lot more data that requires storage for us." "So we view it as very positive, because even as compute maybe drives greater efficiency in terms of compute and memory resources, the requirement for storage is just going to compound and grow." "So we view it very positively for demand going forward."

$WDC CEO says storage demand and requirement compound and grow whether AI runs on US frontier models or cheaper open-source ones. "Whether it's the traditional frontier models that you've seen in the U.S. that are premium-based, or some of the new open-source, more economical models, the underlying requirement is still that they're going to require a lot of data to support the training of these models." "These models are going to generate a lot more data that requires storage for us." "So we view it as very positive, because even as compute maybe drives greater efficiency in terms of compute and memory resources, the requirement for storage is just going to compound and grow." "So we view it very positively for demand going forward."

Fireside Alpha

14,114 次观看 • 1 个月前

Marc Andreessen says 99.9999% of the value of AI will accrue to the users of AI, not the companies who create it: "If you look at the total amount of economic value creation downstream of the internet—something like 99% of that accrued to the users of the internet, not the companies that built the internet." "Same thing with a smartphone. Who gets the economic value of the smartphone? Everybody in the world who uses a smartphone to become more productive in their life or in their business gets 99% of the value from the smartphone. Apple and Google get 1% of the value from the smartphone." "I think AI is going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that—it might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is gonna accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

Marc Andreessen says 99.9999% of the value of AI will accrue to the users of AI, not the companies who create it: "If you look at the total amount of economic value creation downstream of the internet—something like 99% of that accrued to the users of the internet, not the companies that built the internet." "Same thing with a smartphone. Who gets the economic value of the smartphone? Everybody in the world who uses a smartphone to become more productive in their life or in their business gets 99% of the value from the smartphone. Apple and Google get 1% of the value from the smartphone." "I think AI is going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that—it might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is gonna accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

a16z

39,237 次观看 • 5 个月前

CNBC described China’s open-source AI as “pushing the U.S. to compete at the lower end of the value chain,” initially trying to save face for Silicon Valley. The comments section immediately tore that framing apart: "Chinese models are approaching frontier-level capability while remaining absurdly cheap." "This is not the 'lower end' of the value chain." It is forcing expensive American models to answer a much uglier question: Why are you charging tens or even hundreds of times more for the same work? The most revealing part was that people saw through the euphemism immediately: “Lower end” is just cope. American labs are not protecting the high end. They are protecting high profit margins. China’s open-source models are turning frontier capability into a commodity, crushing prices, and freeing developers from brand worship. Suddenly, the American myth of closed-source superiority, premium pricing, and inflated valuations looks less like technological leadership— and more like an ordinary handbag with a luxury label.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

10,646 次观看 • 1 个月前

Ben Horowitz on foundation models as infrastructure: “People believed the big foundation models would be giant brains that could do anything better than anybody.” “It has not played out quite like that.” “Maybe the application behavior is actually more important than having the biggest model trained with the most GPUs.” benahorowitz.eth Jen Kha

Ben Horowitz on foundation models as infrastructure: “People believed the big foundation models would be giant brains that could do anything better than anybody.” “It has not played out quite like that.” “Maybe the application behavior is actually more important than having the biggest model trained with the most GPUs.” benahorowitz.eth Jen Kha

a16z

46,594 次观看 • 8 个月前

China is trying to pop the US AI bubble. Xi just announced China will provide 30 countries with 5,000 AI training and seminar opportunities while building international AI application cooperation centers. China and the US have a different definition of "winning" the AI race. The US strategy: Spend trillions building and controlling the AI infrastructure the world will depend on through a proprietary ecosystem. China is taking the opposite approach: Build cheaper open-source models with similar performance and encourage the world to build on top of them. The bet is simple: The winner of AI will not necessarily be whoever owns the infrastructure. .... It will be whoever builds the best companies on top of it. Just like in the post-dot-com era... The biggest winners were companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft that built businesses on top of open infrastructure.

China is trying to pop the US AI bubble. Xi just announced China will provide 30 countries with 5,000 AI training and seminar opportunities while building international AI application cooperation centers. China and the US have a different definition of "winning" the AI race. The US strategy: Spend trillions building and controlling the AI infrastructure the world will depend on through a proprietary ecosystem. China is taking the opposite approach: Build cheaper open-source models with similar performance and encourage the world to build on top of them. The bet is simple: The winner of AI will not necessarily be whoever owns the infrastructure. .... It will be whoever builds the best companies on top of it. Just like in the post-dot-com era... The biggest winners were companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft that built businesses on top of open infrastructure.

Lukas Ekwueme

197,325 次观看 • 1 个月前

Ceteris argues crypto’s next wave of apps could be built around onchain stocks. "It won't look too different from things we've seen in the past but its a different kind of asset that you're building real liquidity around."

Ceteris argues crypto’s next wave of apps could be built around onchain stocks. "It won't look too different from things we've seen in the past but its a different kind of asset that you're building real liquidity around."

Delphi Digital

33,521 次观看 • 8 天前

Jensen Huang just laid out the exact playbook for the next leg of the AI infrastructure boom. The future of data centers isn't where people live, it's moving to the most remote corners of the planet to tap into massive, under-utilized sources of sustainable energy. The real bottleneck isn't a lack of global energy; it's a geographic mismatch. The winning strategy is to build hyperscale compute infrastructure directly on top of stranded, off-grid power generation. "Train the models there. When they graduate, bring them back." A powerful insight into how the next generation of AI infrastructure will be built and scaled. Watch him break down the macro infrastructure thesis below: 👇

Jensen Huang just laid out the exact playbook for the next leg of the AI infrastructure boom. The future of data centers isn't where people live, it's moving to the most remote corners of the planet to tap into massive, under-utilized sources of sustainable energy. The real bottleneck isn't a lack of global energy; it's a geographic mismatch. The winning strategy is to build hyperscale compute infrastructure directly on top of stranded, off-grid power generation. "Train the models there. When they graduate, bring them back." A powerful insight into how the next generation of AI infrastructure will be built and scaled. Watch him break down the macro infrastructure thesis below: 👇

Leopold Stock Tracker

16,766 次观看 • 3 个月前

Jensen Huang: AI is a five-layer cake: energy, chips, infrastructure, models and applications. “China has twice as much energy as we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. Makes no sense to me.” “On chips, we’re several generations ahead. But don’t be complacent.” “Anybody who thinks China can’t manufacture is missing a big idea.” “Our frontier models are unquestionably world class. We are probably, call it, six months ahead.” “However, out of the 1.4 million models, most of them are open source. China is way ahead on open source.” “And then the layer above that: applications.” “In China, 80% would say AI will do more good than harm.” “In our case, it’d be the other way around.”

Jensen Huang: AI is a five-layer cake: energy, chips, infrastructure, models and applications. “China has twice as much energy as we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. Makes no sense to me.” “On chips, we’re several generations ahead. But don’t be complacent.” “Anybody who thinks China can’t manufacture is missing a big idea.” “Our frontier models are unquestionably world class. We are probably, call it, six months ahead.” “However, out of the 1.4 million models, most of them are open source. China is way ahead on open source.” “And then the layer above that: applications.” “In China, 80% would say AI will do more good than harm.” “In our case, it’d be the other way around.”

Veee

36,962 次观看 • 14 天前

China will crash the US stock market this year. They're dumping SOTA open-source models on the US, nearly as good as the frontier labs, basically free. Nobody can refuse cutting a $100M AI bill down to $5M. Once that deal is on the table for everyone, Anthropic and OpenAI can't justify their prices, or their valuations. The bubble isn't AI. It's the price of AI. And it's about to pop.

China will crash the US stock market this year. They're dumping SOTA open-source models on the US, nearly as good as the frontier labs, basically free. Nobody can refuse cutting a $100M AI bill down to $5M. Once that deal is on the table for everyone, Anthropic and OpenAI can't justify their prices, or their valuations. The bubble isn't AI. It's the price of AI. And it's about to pop.

Ben Cera

547,231 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 Everyone is chasing GPU stocks… but Cathie Wood thinks the AI boom’s hidden winners may be somewhere else 👀 Jeff Lutz 🔋 says CPUs could make a huge comeback as agentic AI and inference grow. He also points to a “hidden layer” of AI, the companies building the racks, cooling, wiring, and power systems behind massive data centers. Big picture: the next AI race may be won by whoever builds the infrastructure fast enough. $TSLA Cathie Wood

🚨 Everyone is chasing GPU stocks… but Cathie Wood thinks the AI boom’s hidden winners may be somewhere else 👀 Jeff Lutz 🔋 says CPUs could make a huge comeback as agentic AI and inference grow. He also points to a “hidden layer” of AI, the companies building the racks, cooling, wiring, and power systems behind massive data centers. Big picture: the next AI race may be won by whoever builds the infrastructure fast enough. $TSLA Cathie Wood

Herbert Ong

28,884 次观看 • 4 个月前

Most of the market is priced for a world that's coming to an end. Traditional software, legacy platforms, much of the SaaS layer of the S&P 500… all built on the assumption that humans will remain the primary customers. AI agents don't buy software the way we do. They don't need dashboards, subscriptions, or logins. And once the buyer changes, so does everything built around them. The investable opportunity ahead is the agentic economy… what gets built for agents as customers. That's where the next wave of capital ends up, and most people aren't positioned for it.

Most of the market is priced for a world that's coming to an end. Traditional software, legacy platforms, much of the SaaS layer of the S&P 500… all built on the assumption that humans will remain the primary customers. AI agents don't buy software the way we do. They don't need dashboards, subscriptions, or logins. And once the buyer changes, so does everything built around them. The investable opportunity ahead is the agentic economy… what gets built for agents as customers. That's where the next wave of capital ends up, and most people aren't positioned for it.

Raoul Pal

215,286 次观看 • 2 个月前

As AI replacement becomes one of the biggest topics on the planet, the next debate will be even bigger: Who owns the AI? We believe it should be the people. The billions of people whose data, actions, and online behavior helped train these systems in the first place. Right now, the future of AI is being owned by Big Tech and a handful of billionaires. But what if ownership was distributed based on the value you contributed? The more you help build AI, the more you share in its success. That sounds a lot fairer to us.

As AI replacement becomes one of the biggest topics on the planet, the next debate will be even bigger: Who owns the AI? We believe it should be the people. The billions of people whose data, actions, and online behavior helped train these systems in the first place. Right now, the future of AI is being owned by Big Tech and a handful of billionaires. But what if ownership was distributed based on the value you contributed? The more you help build AI, the more you share in its success. That sounds a lot fairer to us.

Action Model

34,037 次观看 • 3 个月前