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Intercept rate vs this group of missiles is very low 🤔 See my earlier analysis 👇 Iran is likely mixing old inaccurate missiles with newer types, to exhaust Israeli anti-missile supplies. Israel's strict censorship prevents us from learning what targets are hit.

Intercept rate vs this group of missiles is very low 🤔 See my earlier analysis 👇 Iran is likely mixing old inaccurate missiles with newer types, to exhaust Israeli anti-missile supplies. Israel's strict censorship prevents us from learning what targets are hit.

383,325 просмотров • 1 год назад

Letter from Beijing 2: Tsinghua University – Manifold #113 This special episode was recorded at Tsinghua University in Beijing, generally regarded as the top university in China. Our guests are 3 Americans studying and working at Tsinghua: Gabriel (undergrad), Justin (PhD student in AI), and Alex (Professor in AI research). Topics discussed include: Tsinghua University and elite human capital, AI in China, US-China competition, and the flow of human capital between the US and China Han Feizi, columnist at Asia Times and the guest from the previous "Letter from Beijing" episode, is also in the room. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Welcome to Tsinghua University (02:47) - Gabriel’s Undergrad Journey (12:35) - Justin’s PhD (25:10) - Professor Alex on AI and Rankings (42:51) - Second Chances and Status Signals (46:48) - China’s Exam Ladder Explained (50:20) - Infrastructure and Tech Competition (01:17:18) - Semiconductors, EUV, and Wrap Up

Letter from Beijing 2: Tsinghua University – Manifold #113 This special episode was recorded at Tsinghua University in Beijing, generally regarded as the top university in China. Our guests are 3 Americans studying and working at Tsinghua: Gabriel (undergrad), Justin (PhD student in AI), and Alex (Professor in AI research). Topics discussed include: Tsinghua University and elite human capital, AI in China, US-China competition, and the flow of human capital between the US and China Han Feizi, columnist at Asia Times and the guest from the previous "Letter from Beijing" episode, is also in the room. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Welcome to Tsinghua University (02:47) - Gabriel’s Undergrad Journey (12:35) - Justin’s PhD (25:10) - Professor Alex on AI and Rankings (42:51) - Second Chances and Status Signals (46:48) - China’s Exam Ladder Explained (50:20) - Infrastructure and Tech Competition (01:17:18) - Semiconductors, EUV, and Wrap Up

38,992 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The Global AI Race: and the View from Beijing — Manifold #96 Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions (39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC (50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions

The Global AI Race: and the View from Beijing — Manifold #96 Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions (39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC (50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions

146,691 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Great interview with Beff (e/acc) 😀 Dreamers and Doomers will all enjoy this conversation

Great interview with Beff (e/acc) 😀 Dreamers and Doomers will all enjoy this conversation

17,579 просмотров • 26 дней назад

Mom: "All the kids at school have downloaded RedNote" (9th grade)

Mom: "All the kids at school have downloaded RedNote" (9th grade)

203,523 просмотров • 1 год назад

More and more videos like this every day on Tik Tok. Even if you disagree with her, think about all the others traveling this same path in the last few days. A million Americans?

More and more videos like this every day on Tik Tok. Even if you disagree with her, think about all the others traveling this same path in the last few days. A million Americans?

199,612 просмотров • 1 год назад

What do researchers in the trenches say about the proximity of AGI? "It's not near" shipped GLM-4.6 with a relatively small team. But AGI and the AI bubble are viewed very differently in Beijing. Gemini says: Many developers regard GLM 4.6 as a top-tier model for coding. One Reddit user called it "the BEST CODING LLM. Period," after using it successfully on a complex, multi-component project that other models struggled with. Another user noted that GLM 4.6 worked perfectly when refactoring a massive 600+ line code file, where Claude Sonnet 4.5 failed.

What do researchers in the trenches say about the proximity of AGI? "It's not near" shipped GLM-4.6 with a relatively small team. But AGI and the AI bubble are viewed very differently in Beijing. Gemini says: Many developers regard GLM 4.6 as a top-tier model for coding. One Reddit user called it "the BEST CODING LLM. Period," after using it successfully on a complex, multi-component project that other models struggled with. Another user noted that GLM 4.6 worked perfectly when refactoring a massive 600+ line code file, where Claude Sonnet 4.5 failed.

101,144 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – Manifold #98 Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. On X: Scott Horton (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked?

Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – Manifold #98 Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. On X: Scott Horton (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked?

71,462 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition – Manifold #104 Great conversation with Dan Wang at Hoover. 0:00 - Introduction and Welcome 02:14 - Breakneck - Dan's huge book 05:00 - China's Technological and Political Landscape 21:07 - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents 47:59 - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua 51:09 - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter 52:56 - China's Market Competition and Innovation 56:34 - AI, Automation, and Future Risks

Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition – Manifold #104 Great conversation with Dan Wang at Hoover. 0:00 - Introduction and Welcome 02:14 - Breakneck - Dan's huge book 05:00 - China's Technological and Political Landscape 21:07 - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents 47:59 - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua 51:09 - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter 52:56 - China's Market Competition and Innovation 56:34 - AI, Automation, and Future Risks

51,991 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

She WOKE up

She WOKE up

103,730 просмотров • 1 год назад

Embryo Selection and Frontier Genomics with Dr. Alex Young – Manifold #111 Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. Alex also discusses his recent battles with cancer. Alex Strudwick Young Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Alex Young Bio (06:36) - Biobank Era Genetics (10:49) - Missing Heritability Debate (27:18) - Embryo Selection Controversy (50:32) - Embryo Selection Backlash (53:42) - Mexico City Admixture Study (01:00:13) - Censorship Via Data Access Control (01:05:02) - Battle With Cancer and Circulating Tumor DNA (ctDNA)

Embryo Selection and Frontier Genomics with Dr. Alex Young – Manifold #111 Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. Alex also discusses his recent battles with cancer. Alex Strudwick Young Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Alex Young Bio (06:36) - Biobank Era Genetics (10:49) - Missing Heritability Debate (27:18) - Embryo Selection Controversy (50:32) - Embryo Selection Backlash (53:42) - Mexico City Admixture Study (01:00:13) - Censorship Via Data Access Control (01:05:02) - Battle With Cancer and Circulating Tumor DNA (ctDNA)

19,551 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Dan Collins on Manifold: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing. "Most US autoparts are made in China" Dan spent 20 years in China helping companies like GM establish factories there, and now works on US reshoring.

Dan Collins on Manifold: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing. "Most US autoparts are made in China" Dan spent 20 years in China helping companies like GM establish factories there, and now works on US reshoring.

48,245 просмотров • 1 год назад

"If you want to know the truth about America, download RedNote." 🤯

"If you want to know the truth about America, download RedNote." 🤯

57,165 просмотров • 1 год назад

Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – Manifold #102 This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond. (00:00) - Introduction (02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits (03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare (08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF (20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO (31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge (55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026

Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – Manifold #102 This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond. (00:00) - Introduction (02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits (03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare (08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF (20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO (31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge (55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026

25,595 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Kyle Chan on the Future of US-China Competition — Manifold #94 Great to have Kyle Chan on Manifold! 😀 Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. (00:00) - Introduction (00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests (05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development (12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy (37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism (38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy (41:33) - US-China Technological Competition (59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook

Kyle Chan on the Future of US-China Competition — Manifold #94 Great to have Kyle Chan on Manifold! 😀 Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. (00:00) - Introduction (00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests (05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development (12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy (37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism (38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy (41:33) - US-China Technological Competition (59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook

35,303 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

Iran War is the First Missile War (crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast) – Manifold #110 Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Missile War Reality Check (01:49) - How the War Started (04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations (06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails (14:25) - Ceasefire and Hormuz Brinkmanship (19:52) - Nukes and the JCPOA Fallout (33:44) - US Politics and Israel Lobby Aftershocks

Iran War is the First Missile War (crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast) – Manifold #110 Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Missile War Reality Check (01:49) - How the War Started (04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations (06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails (14:25) - Ceasefire and Hormuz Brinkmanship (19:52) - Nukes and the JCPOA Fallout (33:44) - US Politics and Israel Lobby Aftershocks

13,823 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan – Manifold #107 Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies. (00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan (00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen (02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained (06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories (18:26) - China Tech Reality Check (36:49) - China Tech Leapfrogging (37:52) - Agentic AI on Phones (41:27) - Jobs Wealth and Governance (53:03) - Huawei Ownership and US Pushback

Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan – Manifold #107 Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies. (00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan (00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen (02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained (06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories (18:26) - China Tech Reality Check (36:49) - China Tech Leapfrogging (37:52) - Agentic AI on Phones (41:27) - Jobs Wealth and Governance (53:03) - Huawei Ownership and US Pushback

16,948 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад