steve hsu
@hsu_steve • 36,249 subscribers
Physicist, AI Founder, Manifold Podcast
Videos
Intercept rate vs this group of missiles is very low 🤔 See my earlier analysis 👇 Iran is likely mixing old inaccurate missiles with newer types, to exhaust Israeli anti-missile supplies. Israel's strict censorship prevents us from learning what targets are hit.
steve hsu383,325 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад
The Global AI Race: and the View from Beijing — Manifold #96 Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions (39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC (50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions
steve hsu146,691 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад
Mom: "All the kids at school have downloaded RedNote" (9th grade)
steve hsu203,523 просмотров • 1 год назад
Embryo Selection and Frontier Genomics with Dr. Alex Young – Manifold #111 Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. Alex also discusses his recent battles with cancer. Alex Strudwick Young Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Alex Young Bio (06:36) - Biobank Era Genetics (10:49) - Missing Heritability Debate (27:18) - Embryo Selection Controversy (50:32) - Embryo Selection Backlash (53:42) - Mexico City Admixture Study (01:00:13) - Censorship Via Data Access Control (01:05:02) - Battle With Cancer and Circulating Tumor DNA (ctDNA)
steve hsu19,551 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
What do researchers in the trenches say about the proximity of AGI? "It's not near" shipped GLM-4.6 with a relatively small team. But AGI and the AI bubble are viewed very differently in Beijing. Gemini says: Many developers regard GLM 4.6 as a top-tier model for coding. One Reddit user called it "the BEST CODING LLM. Period," after using it successfully on a complex, multi-component project that other models struggled with. Another user noted that GLM 4.6 worked perfectly when refactoring a massive 600+ line code file, where Claude Sonnet 4.5 failed.
steve hsu101,144 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition – Manifold #104 Great conversation with Dan Wang at Hoover. 0:00 - Introduction and Welcome 02:14 - Breakneck - Dan's huge book 05:00 - China's Technological and Political Landscape 21:07 - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents 47:59 - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua 51:09 - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter 52:56 - China's Market Competition and Innovation 56:34 - AI, Automation, and Future Risks
steve hsu51,991 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – Manifold #98 Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. On X: Scott Horton (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked?
steve hsu71,462 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Dreamers and Doomers: Our AI future, with Richard Ngo – Manifold episode #109 Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known for his work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned from OpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused on forecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. His debut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AI and Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features 22 science fiction stories that explore the psychological and sociological impacts of advanced artificial intelligence. On X: Richard Ngo (00:00) - Richard Ngo Origins (03:48) - DeepMind vs LLMs (09:24) - OpenAI Futurist and AGI Risk (39:17) - Machine God Tail Risk (45:20) - Weird Futures and Normies (51:28) - Alignment Research and Academia (01:16:25) - Doomers vs Skeptics (01:23:57) - Labs Governance Futures (01:39:37) - Doom Scenarios Society
steve hsu12,677 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan – Manifold #107 Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies. (00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan (00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen (02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained (06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories (18:26) - China Tech Reality Check (36:49) - China Tech Leapfrogging (37:52) - Agentic AI on Phones (41:27) - Jobs Wealth and Governance (53:03) - Huawei Ownership and US Pushback
steve hsu16,852 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – Manifold #102 This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond. (00:00) - Introduction (02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits (03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare (08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF (20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO (31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge (55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026
steve hsu25,595 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Dan Collins: Tariffs and the Future of US Manufacturing — Manifold #85 Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship. Dan Collins 00:00 - Introduction 01:25 - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan 02:30 - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University 05:42 - China's Educational and Economic Transformation 14:39 - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures 41:48 - China's Auto Market 42:38 - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism 43:20 - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing 44:28 - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains 49:34 - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence 51:50 - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US
steve hsu48,115 просмотров • 1 год назад
"If you want to know the truth about America, download RedNote." 🤯
steve hsu57,165 просмотров • 1 год назад
Kyle Chan on the Future of US-China Competition — Manifold #94 Great to have Kyle Chan on Manifold! 😀 Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. (00:00) - Introduction (00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests (05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development (12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy (37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism (38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy (41:33) - US-China Technological Competition (59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook
steve hsu35,303 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад
Jian Lian on China's Industrial Policy and Global Strategy – Manifold Episode #99 Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true. Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry. (00:00) - Introduction (00:49) - Jian Gaokao score was 23rd in all of Fujian = Econ at Beida, not Genomics! (05:21) - China's Industrial Policy and Innovation (24:19) - Domestic supply chain strategy; How Huawei became a national champion due to US sanctions (34:13) - Venture Capital in China (36:13) - Hard Tech Investments (37:40) - Regulations of Tech Giants (44:28) - Future of China Technological Development
steve hsu24,277 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
Manifold Podcast Episode #100! Jeffrey Epstein, Israel, and Elite Power, with Murtaza Hussain Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has broken important stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussain reports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeli intelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of other countries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, very elite level.” (01:08) - Introduction (02:20) - The Mission of Drop Site News (06:00) - Epstein Emails (15:28) - Epstein connections and elite power (35:48) - Epstein and intel agencies (39:54) - Ari Ben Menashe and the Iran Contra Affair (42:21) - Media Censorship and Political Implications (47:33) - The Future of Epstein Investigations Ryan Grim Drop Site jeremy scahill Murtaza Hussain
steve hsu22,626 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад