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Jack Kuhr

@JackKuhr • 8,510 subscribers

Space industry research director at Payload. Views are my own. [email protected]

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Jared Isaacman ringing the opening bell this morning

Jared Isaacman ringing the opening bell this morning

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Jeff Bezos at Italian Tech Week this morning talking Blue Origin, cryogenic storage, Moon's advantages, space gigawatt data centers, and millions of people living in space

Jeff Bezos at Italian Tech Week this morning talking Blue Origin, cryogenic storage, Moon's advantages, space gigawatt data centers, and millions of people living in space

314,722 views • 9 months ago

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

44,998 views • 1 month ago

.delian on investors getting comfortable backing Varda as both a biotech + space business—two historically difficult sectors. "My counter to that is two of the most recent trillion-dollar companies have been SpaceX and Eli Lilly." Mo Islam

.delian on investors getting comfortable backing Varda as both a biotech + space business—two historically difficult sectors. "My counter to that is two of the most recent trillion-dollar companies have been SpaceX and Eli Lilly." Mo Islam

53,394 views • 2 months ago

Lots of talk about 100 kW+ satellites. We asked Apex's Ian Cinnamon how hard they are to build in practice. "To give you a sense of how hard it is to manufacture these at scale. The solar panels that you need on a 100 kW satellite platform are about the size of a football field." "So think about having a football field indoors for each satellite. You need to lay out, fold up, put it together, stow it, test it, deploy it." "Doing one of those? Very doable, not that hard." "Doing 10 of them? Hard." "Doing 100 per year, 10,000 per year? Exceedingly difficult."

Lots of talk about 100 kW+ satellites. We asked Apex's Ian Cinnamon how hard they are to build in practice. "To give you a sense of how hard it is to manufacture these at scale. The solar panels that you need on a 100 kW satellite platform are about the size of a football field." "So think about having a football field indoors for each satellite. You need to lay out, fold up, put it together, stow it, test it, deploy it." "Doing one of those? Very doable, not that hard." "Doing 10 of them? Hard." "Doing 100 per year, 10,000 per year? Exceedingly difficult."

45,966 views • 2 months ago

Deploying the Starlab space station will require an operational Starship and a new fairing for the rocket. We asked Starlab's CEO Marshall Smith about the $90M Starship contract. "SpaceX has a contract to go land on the surface of the Moon by '28. We just have to go to orbit. We're already doing that." "So the biggest thing we gotta do now is deal with the fairing, which is in work. I have no doubts or qualms at all that we will be there."

Deploying the Starlab space station will require an operational Starship and a new fairing for the rocket. We asked Starlab's CEO Marshall Smith about the $90M Starship contract. "SpaceX has a contract to go land on the surface of the Moon by '28. We just have to go to orbit. We're already doing that." "So the biggest thing we gotta do now is deal with the fairing, which is in work. I have no doubts or qualms at all that we will be there."

26,166 views • 1 month ago

I swear who ever comes up with this shit is working with black magic. ESCAPADE will be staged at L2 Lagrange point before hitting a couple dipsy dos and an Earth slingshot to catch the late 2026 Mars window.

I swear who ever comes up with this shit is working with black magic. ESCAPADE will be staged at L2 Lagrange point before hitting a couple dipsy dos and an Earth slingshot to catch the late 2026 Mars window.

89,306 views • 8 months ago

USIT's lizvstein on orbital data center scale-up vs. increased compute innovation on the ground. "I don't know what the mix will look like between the two, because I think that my smooth brain here is that it's a bit of a timing race." "Like, how quickly does Starship ramp to high cadence to hit the economic numbers they need? We've heard anywhere between $100 to $500 per kg into LEO." "How quickly does SpaceX ramp Starship cadence to hit that number versus all of the innovation going on on the ground, and how quickly that ramps and deploys?"

USIT's lizvstein on orbital data center scale-up vs. increased compute innovation on the ground. "I don't know what the mix will look like between the two, because I think that my smooth brain here is that it's a bit of a timing race." "Like, how quickly does Starship ramp to high cadence to hit the economic numbers they need? We've heard anywhere between $100 to $500 per kg into LEO." "How quickly does SpaceX ramp Starship cadence to hit that number versus all of the innovation going on on the ground, and how quickly that ramps and deploys?"

18,556 views • 1 month ago

.Shaun Maguire says that, in his opinion, if you add the Anthropic and Google deals + Starlink growth, SpaceX could reach a ~$50B revenue run rate in Q4. "That already starts to shatter the narrative that I was hearing two to three weeks ago, which is 'oh, if you look at the Q1 revenue, it's 15% YoY growth, and losing money, and an insane multiple.'"

.Shaun Maguire says that, in his opinion, if you add the Anthropic and Google deals + Starlink growth, SpaceX could reach a ~$50B revenue run rate in Q4. "That already starts to shatter the narrative that I was hearing two to three weeks ago, which is 'oh, if you look at the Q1 revenue, it's 15% YoY growth, and losing money, and an insane multiple.'"

18,061 views • 1 month ago

Varda president and Founders Fund partner delian hops on the show. Varda revenue: "Last year was about an 80-20 split in terms of the top line. 80% on the federal side. 20% on pharma." We chat: - Varda manufacturing - Investor/entrepreneur - SpaceX IPO - xAI + Cusor + ODCs

Varda president and Founders Fund partner delian hops on the show. Varda revenue: "Last year was about an 80-20 split in terms of the top line. 80% on the federal side. 20% on pharma." We chat: - Varda manufacturing - Investor/entrepreneur - SpaceX IPO - xAI + Cusor + ODCs

27,945 views • 2 months ago

.Shaun Maguire on how fast Starship can accelerate. "To me, I just think it's basically there. The company has essentially demonstrated everything you would need for reusable LEO flight. They have not demonstrated everything you would need for rapidly reusable LEO flight." "In my opinion, they've already done enough to where I feel very confident that they could be flying about 1,000 Starship flights a year with very good unit economics."

.Shaun Maguire on how fast Starship can accelerate. "To me, I just think it's basically there. The company has essentially demonstrated everything you would need for reusable LEO flight. They have not demonstrated everything you would need for rapidly reusable LEO flight." "In my opinion, they've already done enough to where I feel very confident that they could be flying about 1,000 Starship flights a year with very good unit economics."

15,775 views • 1 month ago

Renaissance founding president and B Capital chairman Howard L Morgan says SpaceX has a monopoly, but it doesn't benefit from network effects like Google or Facebook. "Right now, SpaceX's launch monopoly is a real monopoly, pretty much." "But little bits are being chipped away at the edge. And I think when Blue Origin gets it together, they'll be big. Because everybody wants to go elsewhere." "It's different than Google's search, where you had real network effects. There aren't real network effects in launch. And so they don't get the benefit of that." "Facebook got the benefit of network effects. Google got the benefit of network effects. SpaceX doesn't have the benefit of network effects." "And even in the data center world, there's no real network effect benefit. So there is room for competition."

Renaissance founding president and B Capital chairman Howard L Morgan says SpaceX has a monopoly, but it doesn't benefit from network effects like Google or Facebook. "Right now, SpaceX's launch monopoly is a real monopoly, pretty much." "But little bits are being chipped away at the edge. And I think when Blue Origin gets it together, they'll be big. Because everybody wants to go elsewhere." "It's different than Google's search, where you had real network effects. There aren't real network effects in launch. And so they don't get the benefit of that." "Facebook got the benefit of network effects. Google got the benefit of network effects. SpaceX doesn't have the benefit of network effects." "And even in the data center world, there's no real network effect benefit. So there is room for competition."

10,324 views • 1 month ago

Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston joins Mo Islam and I at the NYSE. "In order to make data centers in space work, you really need the BOM costs for a 200 kW satellite to be on the order of 1 million dollars." We chat: - Building low cost sats - 20 yr terrestrial vs. 5 yr space - Merge with a launch company? - Does Starcloud exist if Earth's bottlenecks vanish? - Better leader: Altman or Dario - Building sats cheaper than Starlink - GPU failure rate

Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston joins Mo Islam and I at the NYSE. "In order to make data centers in space work, you really need the BOM costs for a 200 kW satellite to be on the order of 1 million dollars." We chat: - Building low cost sats - 20 yr terrestrial vs. 5 yr space - Merge with a launch company? - Does Starcloud exist if Earth's bottlenecks vanish? - Better leader: Altman or Dario - Building sats cheaper than Starlink - GPU failure rate

15,180 views • 2 months ago

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