Jack Kuhr
@JackKuhr • 8,510 subscribers
Space industry research director at Payload. Views are my own. [email protected]
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.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."
Jack Kuhr44,998 次观看 • 1 个月前
Lots of talk about 100 kW+ satellites. We asked Apex's Ian Cinnamon how hard they are to build in practice. "To give you a sense of how hard it is to manufacture these at scale. The solar panels that you need on a 100 kW satellite platform are about the size of a football field." "So think about having a football field indoors for each satellite. You need to lay out, fold up, put it together, stow it, test it, deploy it." "Doing one of those? Very doable, not that hard." "Doing 10 of them? Hard." "Doing 100 per year, 10,000 per year? Exceedingly difficult."
Jack Kuhr45,966 次观看 • 2 个月前
Deploying the Starlab space station will require an operational Starship and a new fairing for the rocket. We asked Starlab's CEO Marshall Smith about the $90M Starship contract. "SpaceX has a contract to go land on the surface of the Moon by '28. We just have to go to orbit. We're already doing that." "So the biggest thing we gotta do now is deal with the fairing, which is in work. I have no doubts or qualms at all that we will be there."
Jack Kuhr26,166 次观看 • 1 个月前
USIT's lizvstein on orbital data center scale-up vs. increased compute innovation on the ground. "I don't know what the mix will look like between the two, because I think that my smooth brain here is that it's a bit of a timing race." "Like, how quickly does Starship ramp to high cadence to hit the economic numbers they need? We've heard anywhere between $100 to $500 per kg into LEO." "How quickly does SpaceX ramp Starship cadence to hit that number versus all of the innovation going on on the ground, and how quickly that ramps and deploys?"
Jack Kuhr18,556 次观看 • 1 个月前
.Shaun Maguire says that, in his opinion, if you add the Anthropic and Google deals + Starlink growth, SpaceX could reach a ~$50B revenue run rate in Q4. "That already starts to shatter the narrative that I was hearing two to three weeks ago, which is 'oh, if you look at the Q1 revenue, it's 15% YoY growth, and losing money, and an insane multiple.'"
Jack Kuhr18,061 次观看 • 1 个月前
Varda president and Founders Fund partner delian hops on the show. Varda revenue: "Last year was about an 80-20 split in terms of the top line. 80% on the federal side. 20% on pharma." We chat: - Varda manufacturing - Investor/entrepreneur - SpaceX IPO - xAI + Cusor + ODCs
Jack Kuhr27,945 次观看 • 2 个月前
.Shaun Maguire on how fast Starship can accelerate. "To me, I just think it's basically there. The company has essentially demonstrated everything you would need for reusable LEO flight. They have not demonstrated everything you would need for rapidly reusable LEO flight." "In my opinion, they've already done enough to where I feel very confident that they could be flying about 1,000 Starship flights a year with very good unit economics."
Jack Kuhr15,775 次观看 • 1 个月前
Renaissance founding president and B Capital chairman Howard L Morgan says SpaceX has a monopoly, but it doesn't benefit from network effects like Google or Facebook. "Right now, SpaceX's launch monopoly is a real monopoly, pretty much." "But little bits are being chipped away at the edge. And I think when Blue Origin gets it together, they'll be big. Because everybody wants to go elsewhere." "It's different than Google's search, where you had real network effects. There aren't real network effects in launch. And so they don't get the benefit of that." "Facebook got the benefit of network effects. Google got the benefit of network effects. SpaceX doesn't have the benefit of network effects." "And even in the data center world, there's no real network effect benefit. So there is room for competition."
Jack Kuhr10,324 次观看 • 1 个月前
Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston joins Mo Islam and I at the NYSE. "In order to make data centers in space work, you really need the BOM costs for a 200 kW satellite to be on the order of 1 million dollars." We chat: - Building low cost sats - 20 yr terrestrial vs. 5 yr space - Merge with a launch company? - Does Starcloud exist if Earth's bottlenecks vanish? - Better leader: Altman or Dario - Building sats cheaper than Starlink - GPU failure rate
Jack Kuhr15,180 次观看 • 2 个月前
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