Jack Prandelli's banner

Jack Prandelli

@jackprandelli • 44,290 subscribers

Daily Insights on Global Commodities Markets and Events | Commodity Trader | Founder of The Merchant (40k+ subs) 3x/week → https://t.co/P0NxCHeI5V

Shorts

3 Indian sailors are dead after a US strike disabled the tanker MT Settebello in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM says it was carrying Iranian crude and ignored orders. (21 crew were rescued). India has summoned the US chargé d'affaires. This incident will outlast the news cycle. It's the 2nd Indian-crewed, Palau-flagged tanker hit by US forces in a single week (MT Marivex was first; all crew survived). Blockade enforcement is no longer an abstraction between Washington and Tehran. It's now killing 3rd-country seafarers. The world's tanker fleet runs on flags of convenience and Indian, Filipino and Chinese crews. A blockade that treats every non-compliant hull as a target puts those crews at risk. For shipping, this adds a layer on top of Hormuz war-risk premia now extend into the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, crews may refuse Gulf routings, and insurers reprice everything Iran-adjacent. The blockade's cost is no longer just barrels. It's manpower and coverage. video source: current report

3 Indian sailors are dead after a US strike disabled the tanker MT Settebello in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM says it was carrying Iranian crude and ignored orders. (21 crew were rescued). India has summoned the US chargé d'affaires. This incident will outlast the news cycle. It's the 2nd Indian-crewed, Palau-flagged tanker hit by US forces in a single week (MT Marivex was first; all crew survived). Blockade enforcement is no longer an abstraction between Washington and Tehran. It's now killing 3rd-country seafarers. The world's tanker fleet runs on flags of convenience and Indian, Filipino and Chinese crews. A blockade that treats every non-compliant hull as a target puts those crews at risk. For shipping, this adds a layer on top of Hormuz war-risk premia now extend into the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, crews may refuse Gulf routings, and insurers reprice everything Iran-adjacent. The blockade's cost is no longer just barrels. It's manpower and coverage. video source: current report

499,845 Aufrufe

The strangest oil trade of 2026 isn't happening at sea. It's 700 tanker trucks a day crossing the Iraq–Syria desert. The biggest winner is a government that barely produces oil at all. Hormuz shut → Iraq lost 90% of export revenue. Baghdad will take ANY outlet. So 2 land corridors opened: al-Waleed in Anbar (31 March) and Rabia/Yarubiyah (20 April) the latter sealed since 2013. Destination: Baniyas, Syria's Mediterranean port. Then by sea to Europe. The numbers are medieval and massive at once: 500–700 trucks/day, 30 tonnes each. Baniyas unloading capacity up 30%, 120k bpd flowing. Baseline 150k bpd, target 350k. Moving just 50k bpd of crude takes 1,000 trucks running nonstop, this is a pipeline made of wheels. 💰The economics Here's the desperation premium: SOMO is paying $20–22 per barrel to move fuel oil by land. By sea it costs cents. Iraq signed for 650k tonnes/month anyway because the alternative isn't a cheaper route.... It's zero. Damascus collects on every barrel: transit fees, storage, port charges, plus cheap Iraqi fuel. At $2–3/bbl that's $8–13M/month, rising to $21–30M at full flow. For al-Sharaa's empty treasury, possibly his most reliable hard-currency stream. The worse Iraq's crisis gets, the more Syria earns. The structural irony is that Iran shut Hormuz to punish its enemies. Result, Iraqi oil money now flows to a Damascus government Tehran calls an adversary while Iraq, Iran's closest Arab partner, sits on life support. Chokepoints don't choose their victims, Geography does.

The strangest oil trade of 2026 isn't happening at sea. It's 700 tanker trucks a day crossing the Iraq–Syria desert. The biggest winner is a government that barely produces oil at all. Hormuz shut → Iraq lost 90% of export revenue. Baghdad will take ANY outlet. So 2 land corridors opened: al-Waleed in Anbar (31 March) and Rabia/Yarubiyah (20 April) the latter sealed since 2013. Destination: Baniyas, Syria's Mediterranean port. Then by sea to Europe. The numbers are medieval and massive at once: 500–700 trucks/day, 30 tonnes each. Baniyas unloading capacity up 30%, 120k bpd flowing. Baseline 150k bpd, target 350k. Moving just 50k bpd of crude takes 1,000 trucks running nonstop, this is a pipeline made of wheels. 💰The economics Here's the desperation premium: SOMO is paying $20–22 per barrel to move fuel oil by land. By sea it costs cents. Iraq signed for 650k tonnes/month anyway because the alternative isn't a cheaper route.... It's zero. Damascus collects on every barrel: transit fees, storage, port charges, plus cheap Iraqi fuel. At $2–3/bbl that's $8–13M/month, rising to $21–30M at full flow. For al-Sharaa's empty treasury, possibly his most reliable hard-currency stream. The worse Iraq's crisis gets, the more Syria earns. The structural irony is that Iran shut Hormuz to punish its enemies. Result, Iraqi oil money now flows to a Damascus government Tehran calls an adversary while Iraq, Iran's closest Arab partner, sits on life support. Chokepoints don't choose their victims, Geography does.

283,410 Aufrufe

💥Glencore's Kazzinc, Kazakhstan's largest producer of zinc, lead, copper, gold, and silver just had a deadly explosion. 2 dead, 5 injured, building partially collapsed. The critical minerals supply chain isn't just concentrated. It's fragile.

💥Glencore's Kazzinc, Kazakhstan's largest producer of zinc, lead, copper, gold, and silver just had a deadly explosion. 2 dead, 5 injured, building partially collapsed. The critical minerals supply chain isn't just concentrated. It's fragile.

268,260 Aufrufe

Videos

Anya Rossi

sweetdream.ai

SweetDream.ai•Sponsored•Livecam

Watch Anya Live

Anya is streaming live right now! Join her private show and enjoy exclusive content.

Exclusive private shows

1.2k viewers online

Private Show

Join now for exclusive access

Free preview available • Premium content

🚨You cannot buy a new gas turbine until 2030 GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi order books stretching to 2029. Prices nearly tripled since 2019. Every AI data center, every gas power plant, every energy security project on earth is queuing for the same machine.

🚨You cannot buy a new gas turbine until 2030 GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi order books stretching to 2029. Prices nearly tripled since 2019. Every AI data center, every gas power plant, every energy security project on earth is queuing for the same machine.

657,700 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Bessent just connected every dot,like I wrote i my latest article. China bought 90% of Iran's oil exports. That's almost 10% of China's total imports. Now the blockade cuts it off. And the US is warning Chinese banks: process Iranian payments = secondary sanctions. This isn't just an energy blockade. It's a financial one too. 🇮🇷 Iran loses its only real customer 🇨🇳 China loses its cheapest oil source 🏦 Chinese banks face secondary sanctions risk 💸 Iran's $400M/day bleeding accelerates 🛢️ Chinese imports already spiking +20% y/y Bessent called China "unreliable" for hoarding oil during the war instead of sharing with allies. Trump said "Xi needs oil. We don't." Now the Treasury is closing the financial escape hatch too. Water blockade + Financial blockade... Simultaneously. The summit just got a lot more complicated. Full breakdown in my latest article 👇

Bessent just connected every dot,like I wrote i my latest article. China bought 90% of Iran's oil exports. That's almost 10% of China's total imports. Now the blockade cuts it off. And the US is warning Chinese banks: process Iranian payments = secondary sanctions. This isn't just an energy blockade. It's a financial one too. 🇮🇷 Iran loses its only real customer 🇨🇳 China loses its cheapest oil source 🏦 Chinese banks face secondary sanctions risk 💸 Iran's $400M/day bleeding accelerates 🛢️ Chinese imports already spiking +20% y/y Bessent called China "unreliable" for hoarding oil during the war instead of sharing with allies. Trump said "Xi needs oil. We don't." Now the Treasury is closing the financial escape hatch too. Water blockade + Financial blockade... Simultaneously. The summit just got a lot more complicated. Full breakdown in my latest article 👇

528,480 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇷🇺Putin just said the quiet part loud 🇪🇺"Europe is lacking brains" Brutal, But look at the timing. -Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years -Hormuz 4 ships in 48 hours -Qatar LNG gone for every European buyer -Von der Leyen no to Russian gas And Putin's sitting on a pipeline that still works. He doesn't need to fire a single missile at Europe. He just needs to wait ♟️ #Germany shut its nuclear plants. Closed its Russian pipeline. Refused to join the coalition. Now stares down an energy winter with no exit. Putin didn't create this crisis. But he's watching Europe walk straight into it with zero leverage and zero alternatives. "Economic decisions made by politicians with no connection to the economy." 📩 I break down exactly what this means for markets every week in my newsletter. Link in bio

🇷🇺Putin just said the quiet part loud 🇪🇺"Europe is lacking brains" Brutal, But look at the timing. -Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years -Hormuz 4 ships in 48 hours -Qatar LNG gone for every European buyer -Von der Leyen no to Russian gas And Putin's sitting on a pipeline that still works. He doesn't need to fire a single missile at Europe. He just needs to wait ♟️ #Germany shut its nuclear plants. Closed its Russian pipeline. Refused to join the coalition. Now stares down an energy winter with no exit. Putin didn't create this crisis. But he's watching Europe walk straight into it with zero leverage and zero alternatives. "Economic decisions made by politicians with no connection to the economy." 📩 I break down exactly what this means for markets every week in my newsletter. Link in bio

285,362 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇷🇺5 of Russia's top 10 refineries are offline. 1.45 mbd down. What years of Western sanctions couldn't do, Ukrainian drones did in 2 months. Russia is being demoted from refiner to crude only exporter losing the value-add of the barrel. Source: Business Basics

🇷🇺5 of Russia's top 10 refineries are offline. 1.45 mbd down. What years of Western sanctions couldn't do, Ukrainian drones did in 2 months. Russia is being demoted from refiner to crude only exporter losing the value-add of the barrel. Source: Business Basics

147,155 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 CEO Sultan Al Jaber warns Gulf oil flows could take at least 4 months to recover to just 80% of pre-war levels, even if the Iran conflict ended immediately. Reopening Hormuz is not the same as restoring normal flows. Tankers, LNG cargoes, pipelines, storage systems, and damaged infrastructure all need time to restart. Markets may be underestimating how long the supply shock could last. video source The National

🚨 CEO Sultan Al Jaber warns Gulf oil flows could take at least 4 months to recover to just 80% of pre-war levels, even if the Iran conflict ended immediately. Reopening Hormuz is not the same as restoring normal flows. Tankers, LNG cargoes, pipelines, storage systems, and damaged infrastructure all need time to restart. Markets may be underestimating how long the supply shock could last. video source The National

69,382 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

🚢 Vessels Crossed Strait of Hormuz 🟢 Feb 26 → 132 vessels 🟢 Feb 27 → 128 vessels 🟡 Feb 28 → 98 vessels 🟠 Mar 01 → 18 vessels 🔴 Mar 02 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 03 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 04 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 05 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 06 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 07 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 08 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 09 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 10 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 11 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 12 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 13 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 14 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 15 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 16 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 17 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 18 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 19 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 20 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 21 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 22 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 23 → 5 vessels 🔴 Mar 24 → 6 vessels 🔴 Mar 25 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 26 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 27 → 4 vessels 🟠 Mar 28 → 12 vessels 🔴 Mar 29 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 30 → 4 vessels 🔴 Mar 31 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 1 → 8 vessels 🔴 Apr 2 → 6 vessels 🟠 Apr 3 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 4 → 10 vessels 🟠 Apr 5 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 6 → 7 vessels 🟠 Apr 7 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 8 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 9 → 9 vessels 🔴 Apr 10 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 11 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 12 → 22 vessels 🟠 Apr 13 → 17 vessels 🟠 Apr 14 → 19 vessels 🟠 Apr 15 → 15 vessels 🔴 Apr 16 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 17 → 12 vessels 🟠 Apr 18 → 35 vessels full article here: video source:kpler

🚢 Vessels Crossed Strait of Hormuz 🟢 Feb 26 → 132 vessels 🟢 Feb 27 → 128 vessels 🟡 Feb 28 → 98 vessels 🟠 Mar 01 → 18 vessels 🔴 Mar 02 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 03 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 04 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 05 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 06 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 07 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 08 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 09 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 10 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 11 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 12 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 13 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 14 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 15 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 16 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 17 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 18 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 19 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 20 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 21 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 22 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 23 → 5 vessels 🔴 Mar 24 → 6 vessels 🔴 Mar 25 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 26 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 27 → 4 vessels 🟠 Mar 28 → 12 vessels 🔴 Mar 29 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 30 → 4 vessels 🔴 Mar 31 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 1 → 8 vessels 🔴 Apr 2 → 6 vessels 🟠 Apr 3 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 4 → 10 vessels 🟠 Apr 5 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 6 → 7 vessels 🟠 Apr 7 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 8 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 9 → 9 vessels 🔴 Apr 10 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 11 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 12 → 22 vessels 🟠 Apr 13 → 17 vessels 🟠 Apr 14 → 19 vessels 🟠 Apr 15 → 15 vessels 🔴 Apr 16 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 17 → 12 vessels 🟠 Apr 18 → 35 vessels full article here: video source:kpler

87,487 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇪🇺Ursula von der Leyen just admitted Europe's energy bill exploded by €27 billion in 2 months of Middle East conflict and called it proof that Europe cannot be overdependent on imported energy. She's describing the fire while standing next to the people who lit it. Germany shut down its last nuclear plants in 2023 by choice a decision made in peacetime that removed 6% of European baseload electricity clean, firm, domestic power that needed no tankers, no pipelines, and no Hormuz. ⚠️Now the same European institutions calling for energy sovereignty are importing solar panels, batteries, and wind components overwhelmingly from China the country that controls 80%+ of global solar manufacturing and dominates the battery supply chain Europe needs to "go renewable." That's trading one dependency for another one. The way forward requires admitting the mistakes first.

🇪🇺Ursula von der Leyen just admitted Europe's energy bill exploded by €27 billion in 2 months of Middle East conflict and called it proof that Europe cannot be overdependent on imported energy. She's describing the fire while standing next to the people who lit it. Germany shut down its last nuclear plants in 2023 by choice a decision made in peacetime that removed 6% of European baseload electricity clean, firm, domestic power that needed no tankers, no pipelines, and no Hormuz. ⚠️Now the same European institutions calling for energy sovereignty are importing solar panels, batteries, and wind components overwhelmingly from China the country that controls 80%+ of global solar manufacturing and dominates the battery supply chain Europe needs to "go renewable." That's trading one dependency for another one. The way forward requires admitting the mistakes first.

54,053 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Oil power didn't stay where it started. The countries controlling energy today look nothing like the map from 50 years ago. And right now, that map is shifting again faster than anyone expected. 🇺🇸 US: from import-dependent to world's n.1 producer 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 700K bpd knocked offline by Iranian strikes 🇷🇺 Russia: sanctions-hit but Urals just hit a 13 year high 🇮🇷 Iran: controls the world's most critical chokepoint 🌍 Everyone else: scrambling for alternatives Decades of energy geopolitics rewired in weeks. Hormuz didn't just block oil. It exposed exactly who holds the cards and who doesn't. The next energy map is being drawn right now. Also in LNG something big just happened if you want to know it read my latest article here:

Oil power didn't stay where it started. The countries controlling energy today look nothing like the map from 50 years ago. And right now, that map is shifting again faster than anyone expected. 🇺🇸 US: from import-dependent to world's n.1 producer 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 700K bpd knocked offline by Iranian strikes 🇷🇺 Russia: sanctions-hit but Urals just hit a 13 year high 🇮🇷 Iran: controls the world's most critical chokepoint 🌍 Everyone else: scrambling for alternatives Decades of energy geopolitics rewired in weeks. Hormuz didn't just block oil. It exposed exactly who holds the cards and who doesn't. The next energy map is being drawn right now. Also in LNG something big just happened if you want to know it read my latest article here:

62,560 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸 Utah just approved a massive AI data center twice the size of Manhattan It’s expected to use 9 gigawatts of power and 16.6 billion gallons of water per year in a state already battling severe drought💧 If you want to know the full case with names, math, triggers of the disclosure stocks. Read my latest article. The link is in the below comments👇 video source : Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸 Utah just approved a massive AI data center twice the size of Manhattan It’s expected to use 9 gigawatts of power and 16.6 billion gallons of water per year in a state already battling severe drought💧 If you want to know the full case with names, math, triggers of the disclosure stocks. Read my latest article. The link is in the below comments👇 video source : Mario Nawfal

19,539 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

In 15 months, the US LNG export capacity Doubled. In just over a year. And the world just realized why that matters. 🇶🇦 Qatar LNG via Hormuz: gone 🇷🇺 Russian LNG: back to sanction,backdoor deals 🇦🇺 Australia: maxed out 🇺🇸 US LNG: just doubled its export capacity. 📦 First country ever to export 100M metric tons LNG in a year 🔥 Natural gas production: record 118.5 bcf/day 🚢 Glencore locked in 3M tons/year for 20 years 🤝 Mercuria locked in 1.5M tons/year for 20 years US built the infrastructure before it happened. While Iran was building a toll booth Washington was permitting export terminals. The 121 tankers didn't appear overnight. Neither did the LNG capacity.

In 15 months, the US LNG export capacity Doubled. In just over a year. And the world just realized why that matters. 🇶🇦 Qatar LNG via Hormuz: gone 🇷🇺 Russian LNG: back to sanction,backdoor deals 🇦🇺 Australia: maxed out 🇺🇸 US LNG: just doubled its export capacity. 📦 First country ever to export 100M metric tons LNG in a year 🔥 Natural gas production: record 118.5 bcf/day 🚢 Glencore locked in 3M tons/year for 20 years 🤝 Mercuria locked in 1.5M tons/year for 20 years US built the infrastructure before it happened. While Iran was building a toll booth Washington was permitting export terminals. The 121 tankers didn't appear overnight. Neither did the LNG capacity.

52,630 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Discover the most common types of cargo ships, from massive Container Ships to specialized Livestock Carriers. Cargo Ship Types: ▪️ Oil tanker ▪️ LNG carrier ▪️ Container ship ▪️ Bulk carrier ▪️ Ro-Ro ▪️ Livestock carrier #ship #vessel #lng #carrier #logistics

Discover the most common types of cargo ships, from massive Container Ships to specialized Livestock Carriers. Cargo Ship Types: ▪️ Oil tanker ▪️ LNG carrier ▪️ Container ship ▪️ Bulk carrier ▪️ Ro-Ro ▪️ Livestock carrier #ship #vessel #lng #carrier #logistics

14,698 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Keine weiteren Inhalte verfügbar