
Jack Prandelli
@jackprandelli • 51,945 subscribers
Daily Insights on Global Commodities Markets and Events | Commodity Trader | Founder of The Merchant (40k+ subs) 3x/week → https://t.co/P0NxCHeI5V
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🛢️🇸🇦🇨🇳Saudi crude Aramco has sold 4 million barrels to China just this month using a specific workaround for the Strait of Hormuz and the company has now offered even more for September loading using the same method. 2 VLCCs, Singapore Prosperity and Algeria Prosperity, loaded inside the Gulf, transited the strait, and transferred their cargo ship to ship off Sohar in Oman to 2 other VLCCs, Xin Hui Yang and Xin Han Yang, which are now headed to Ningbo and Zhanjiang respectively with both deliveries going to Sinopec. Shipping data also shows Aramco running some of these transits with vessel trackers switched off to reduce the odds of being targeted during the crossing. This is Aramco's second straight week running sales this way. It already sold at least 4 million barrels of heavier Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades to PetroChina and Sinochem last week after resuming loadings at Ras Tanura, and this week's offers to Asian buyers are again structured around STS transfers off Fujairah or Sohar rather than a straight transit and delivery. This kind of relay, load inside the Gulf, cross the strait, swap ships on the far side, has become one of the more established ways producers are keeping barrels moving without dropping volumes entirely. video source:Soar
Jack Prandelli647,977 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

Bessent just connected every dot,like I wrote i my latest article. China bought 90% of Iran's oil exports. That's almost 10% of China's total imports. Now the blockade cuts it off. And the US is warning Chinese banks: process Iranian payments = secondary sanctions. This isn't just an energy blockade. It's a financial one too. 🇮🇷 Iran loses its only real customer 🇨🇳 China loses its cheapest oil source 🏦 Chinese banks face secondary sanctions risk 💸 Iran's $400M/day bleeding accelerates 🛢️ Chinese imports already spiking +20% y/y Bessent called China "unreliable" for hoarding oil during the war instead of sharing with allies. Trump said "Xi needs oil. We don't." Now the Treasury is closing the financial escape hatch too. Water blockade + Financial blockade... Simultaneously. The summit just got a lot more complicated. Full breakdown in my latest article 👇
Jack Prandelli528,876 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇷🇺Putin just said the quiet part loud 🇪🇺"Europe is lacking brains" Brutal, But look at the timing. -Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years -Hormuz 4 ships in 48 hours -Qatar LNG gone for every European buyer -Von der Leyen no to Russian gas And Putin's sitting on a pipeline that still works. He doesn't need to fire a single missile at Europe. He just needs to wait ♟️ #Germany shut its nuclear plants. Closed its Russian pipeline. Refused to join the coalition. Now stares down an energy winter with no exit. Putin didn't create this crisis. But he's watching Europe walk straight into it with zero leverage and zero alternatives. "Economic decisions made by politicians with no connection to the economy." 📩 I break down exactly what this means for markets every week in my newsletter. Link in bio
Jack Prandelli285,362 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🚨Jeff Currie: "I'd argue in my entire career, I have never seen an energy environment this tight." The US SPR sits near a 43-year low, with barely 19 million barrels of cushion above the operating floor Refining margins just hit a record $60+ a barrel, 6x the 40 year average, driven by supply absence, not demand Roughly 6 million bpd of global refining capacity is offline between Russia, China and the Middle East Currie is betting the barrels win.
Jack Prandelli100,521 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇸🇦 Aramco's Jizan refinery has reportedly sustained a significant hit following a recent Houthi drone attack. The facility is a major 400,000 barrel per day refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, near the Yemeni border. 🇾🇪 The Houthis have targeted the strategic city and its refinery dozens of times over the years, including several strikes in the past few days, making it a persistent security challenge for Riyadh.
Jack Prandelli52,157 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇷🇺5 of Russia's top 10 refineries are offline. 1.45 mbd down. What years of Western sanctions couldn't do, Ukrainian drones did in 2 months. Russia is being demoted from refiner to crude only exporter losing the value-add of the barrel. Source: Business Basics
Jack Prandelli148,314 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇮🇷🚢 Hormuz ship traffic just fell by half. Only 5 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on August 31, down from 10 the day before. 4 entered the Gulf, one left, using a mix of Iranian, Omani and negotiated routes, and 2 of the 5 were shadow fleet vessels. Bab el Mandeb tells a different story. Crossings there held steady at 35, up slightly day on day, with 19 vessels entering the Red Sea and 16 exiting. No dark transits, no new attacks. These figures are still preliminary. Some "dark" crossings, ships turning off tracking, often get identified and added later, so the actual Hormuz total could move once more data comes in. video source: MarineTraffic
Jack Prandelli16,053 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

🚢 Vessels Crossed Strait of Hormuz 🟢 Feb 26 → 132 vessels 🟢 Feb 27 → 128 vessels 🟡 Feb 28 → 98 vessels 🟠 Mar 01 → 18 vessels 🔴 Mar 02 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 03 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 04 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 05 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 06 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 07 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 08 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 09 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 10 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 11 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 12 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 13 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 14 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 15 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 16 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 17 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 18 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 19 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 20 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 21 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 22 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 23 → 5 vessels 🔴 Mar 24 → 6 vessels 🔴 Mar 25 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 26 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 27 → 4 vessels 🟠 Mar 28 → 12 vessels 🔴 Mar 29 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 30 → 4 vessels 🔴 Mar 31 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 1 → 8 vessels 🔴 Apr 2 → 6 vessels 🟠 Apr 3 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 4 → 10 vessels 🟠 Apr 5 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 6 → 7 vessels 🟠 Apr 7 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 8 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 9 → 9 vessels 🔴 Apr 10 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 11 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 12 → 22 vessels 🟠 Apr 13 → 17 vessels 🟠 Apr 14 → 19 vessels 🟠 Apr 15 → 15 vessels 🔴 Apr 16 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 17 → 12 vessels 🟠 Apr 18 → 35 vessels full article here: video source:kpler
Jack Prandelli87,589 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🚨 CEO Sultan Al Jaber warns Gulf oil flows could take at least 4 months to recover to just 80% of pre-war levels, even if the Iran conflict ended immediately. Reopening Hormuz is not the same as restoring normal flows. Tankers, LNG cargoes, pipelines, storage systems, and damaged infrastructure all need time to restart. Markets may be underestimating how long the supply shock could last. video source The National
Jack Prandelli69,382 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚢 INSIDE THE LNG SHIPBUILDING PROCESS Building an LNG carrier is one of the most demanding engineering projects in the maritime industry. The vessel is assembled from enormous prefabricated hull blocks before specialised containment systems, insulation layers, pipelines and reliquefaction equipment are installed. Its cargo tanks must safely transport liquefied natural gas at -162°C, while limiting boil-off gas and protecting the steel hull from extreme temperatures. Every weld, membrane and insulation panel must meet exceptionally strict standards. These are not simply large ships. They are floating cryogenic facilities designed to move energy safely across the world.
Jack Prandelli30,540 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

☢️🇩🇪Germany built nuclear reactors for 60 years. Then shut every one of them down. 🇯🇵Japan was next, until Fukushima changed everything overnight. 🇨🇳Now China builds faster than any country in history. 🇺🇸The US still leads with 95 reactors. China has 66 and climbing. 🇫🇷France, at 58, gets more of its power from nuclear than anyone. 🇷🇺Russia has 36. The countries that quit are watching the ones that didn't pull ahead. video source World of Statistics
Jack Prandelli21,672 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

This video breaks down how gas gets loaded, moved, and safely discharged at each step. Also what actually separates those tankers from a standard cargo ship. If you want the bigger picture, how the war and the Hormuz blockade just reshaped global energy flows, that's in my latest article.
Jack Prandelli12,582 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

Oil power didn't stay where it started. The countries controlling energy today look nothing like the map from 50 years ago. And right now, that map is shifting again faster than anyone expected. 🇺🇸 US: from import-dependent to world's n.1 producer 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 700K bpd knocked offline by Iranian strikes 🇷🇺 Russia: sanctions-hit but Urals just hit a 13 year high 🇮🇷 Iran: controls the world's most critical chokepoint 🌍 Everyone else: scrambling for alternatives Decades of energy geopolitics rewired in weeks. Hormuz didn't just block oil. It exposed exactly who holds the cards and who doesn't. The next energy map is being drawn right now. Also in LNG something big just happened if you want to know it read my latest article here:
Jack Prandelli62,767 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇪🇺Ursula von der Leyen just admitted Europe's energy bill exploded by €27 billion in 2 months of Middle East conflict and called it proof that Europe cannot be overdependent on imported energy. She's describing the fire while standing next to the people who lit it. Germany shut down its last nuclear plants in 2023 by choice a decision made in peacetime that removed 6% of European baseload electricity clean, firm, domestic power that needed no tankers, no pipelines, and no Hormuz. ⚠️Now the same European institutions calling for energy sovereignty are importing solar panels, batteries, and wind components overwhelmingly from China the country that controls 80%+ of global solar manufacturing and dominates the battery supply chain Europe needs to "go renewable." That's trading one dependency for another one. The way forward requires admitting the mistakes first.
Jack Prandelli54,112 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

In 15 months, the US LNG export capacity Doubled. In just over a year. And the world just realized why that matters. 🇶🇦 Qatar LNG via Hormuz: gone 🇷🇺 Russian LNG: back to sanction,backdoor deals 🇦🇺 Australia: maxed out 🇺🇸 US LNG: just doubled its export capacity. 📦 First country ever to export 100M metric tons LNG in a year 🔥 Natural gas production: record 118.5 bcf/day 🚢 Glencore locked in 3M tons/year for 20 years 🤝 Mercuria locked in 1.5M tons/year for 20 years US built the infrastructure before it happened. While Iran was building a toll booth Washington was permitting export terminals. The 121 tankers didn't appear overnight. Neither did the LNG capacity.
Jack Prandelli52,630 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇺🇸 US energy is reshaping global oil markets. Texas and the Permian Basin have turned America into a shale superpower. Before: → Early 1980s: US pumping roughly 8.6 million bpd → Decades of decline follow → 2008: bottoms out around 5.0 million bpd After: → Shale revolution flips the trend → Texas alone has pumped tens of billions of barrels cumulative, the Permian Basin as the engine → On some days, 1 in every 5 barrels produced on Earth is American This wasn't a new discovery. It was a technology, unlocking what decline said was already gone.
Jack Prandelli28,871 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸 Utah just approved a massive AI data center twice the size of Manhattan It’s expected to use 9 gigawatts of power and 16.6 billion gallons of water per year in a state already battling severe drought💧 If you want to know the full case with names, math, triggers of the disclosure stocks. Read my latest article. The link is in the below comments👇 video source : Mario Nawfal
Jack Prandelli19,610 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten