
Jack Prandelli
@jackprandelli • 48,510 subscribers
Daily Insights on Global Commodities Markets and Events | Commodity Trader | Founder of The Merchant (40k+ subs) 3x/week → https://t.co/P0NxCHeI5V
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🚨Jeff Currie: "I'd argue in my entire career, I have never seen an energy environment this tight." The US SPR sits near a 43-year low, with barely 19 million barrels of cushion above the operating floor Refining margins just hit a record $60+ a barrel, 6x the 40 year average, driven by supply absence, not demand Roughly 6 million bpd of global refining capacity is offline between Russia, China and the Middle East Currie is betting the barrels win.
Jack Prandelli98,741 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

Bessent just connected every dot,like I wrote i my latest article. China bought 90% of Iran's oil exports. That's almost 10% of China's total imports. Now the blockade cuts it off. And the US is warning Chinese banks: process Iranian payments = secondary sanctions. This isn't just an energy blockade. It's a financial one too. 🇮🇷 Iran loses its only real customer 🇨🇳 China loses its cheapest oil source 🏦 Chinese banks face secondary sanctions risk 💸 Iran's $400M/day bleeding accelerates 🛢️ Chinese imports already spiking +20% y/y Bessent called China "unreliable" for hoarding oil during the war instead of sharing with allies. Trump said "Xi needs oil. We don't." Now the Treasury is closing the financial escape hatch too. Water blockade + Financial blockade... Simultaneously. The summit just got a lot more complicated. Full breakdown in my latest article 👇
Jack Prandelli528,720 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇷🇺Putin just said the quiet part loud 🇪🇺"Europe is lacking brains" Brutal, But look at the timing. -Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years -Hormuz 4 ships in 48 hours -Qatar LNG gone for every European buyer -Von der Leyen no to Russian gas And Putin's sitting on a pipeline that still works. He doesn't need to fire a single missile at Europe. He just needs to wait ♟️ #Germany shut its nuclear plants. Closed its Russian pipeline. Refused to join the coalition. Now stares down an energy winter with no exit. Putin didn't create this crisis. But he's watching Europe walk straight into it with zero leverage and zero alternatives. "Economic decisions made by politicians with no connection to the economy." 📩 I break down exactly what this means for markets every week in my newsletter. Link in bio
Jack Prandelli285,362 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇷🇺5 of Russia's top 10 refineries are offline. 1.45 mbd down. What years of Western sanctions couldn't do, Ukrainian drones did in 2 months. Russia is being demoted from refiner to crude only exporter losing the value-add of the barrel. Source: Business Basics
Jack Prandelli148,222 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇸 US energy is reshaping global oil markets. Texas and the Permian Basin have turned America into a shale superpower. Before: → Early 1980s: US pumping roughly 8.6 million bpd → Decades of decline follow → 2008: bottoms out around 5.0 million bpd After: → Shale revolution flips the trend → Texas alone has pumped tens of billions of barrels cumulative, the Permian Basin as the engine → On some days, 1 in every 5 barrels produced on Earth is American This wasn't a new discovery. It was a technology, unlocking what decline said was already gone.
Jack Prandelli28,871 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

🚨 CEO Sultan Al Jaber warns Gulf oil flows could take at least 4 months to recover to just 80% of pre-war levels, even if the Iran conflict ended immediately. Reopening Hormuz is not the same as restoring normal flows. Tankers, LNG cargoes, pipelines, storage systems, and damaged infrastructure all need time to restart. Markets may be underestimating how long the supply shock could last. video source The National
Jack Prandelli69,382 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚢 Vessels Crossed Strait of Hormuz 🟢 Feb 26 → 132 vessels 🟢 Feb 27 → 128 vessels 🟡 Feb 28 → 98 vessels 🟠 Mar 01 → 18 vessels 🔴 Mar 02 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 03 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 04 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 05 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 06 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 07 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 08 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 09 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 10 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 11 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 12 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 13 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 14 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 15 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 16 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 17 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 18 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 19 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 20 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 21 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 22 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 23 → 5 vessels 🔴 Mar 24 → 6 vessels 🔴 Mar 25 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 26 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 27 → 4 vessels 🟠 Mar 28 → 12 vessels 🔴 Mar 29 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 30 → 4 vessels 🔴 Mar 31 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 1 → 8 vessels 🔴 Apr 2 → 6 vessels 🟠 Apr 3 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 4 → 10 vessels 🟠 Apr 5 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 6 → 7 vessels 🟠 Apr 7 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 8 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 9 → 9 vessels 🔴 Apr 10 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 11 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 12 → 22 vessels 🟠 Apr 13 → 17 vessels 🟠 Apr 14 → 19 vessels 🟠 Apr 15 → 15 vessels 🔴 Apr 16 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 17 → 12 vessels 🟠 Apr 18 → 35 vessels full article here: video source:kpler
Jack Prandelli87,503 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇪🇺Ursula von der Leyen just admitted Europe's energy bill exploded by €27 billion in 2 months of Middle East conflict and called it proof that Europe cannot be overdependent on imported energy. She's describing the fire while standing next to the people who lit it. Germany shut down its last nuclear plants in 2023 by choice a decision made in peacetime that removed 6% of European baseload electricity clean, firm, domestic power that needed no tankers, no pipelines, and no Hormuz. ⚠️Now the same European institutions calling for energy sovereignty are importing solar panels, batteries, and wind components overwhelmingly from China the country that controls 80%+ of global solar manufacturing and dominates the battery supply chain Europe needs to "go renewable." That's trading one dependency for another one. The way forward requires admitting the mistakes first.
Jack Prandelli54,112 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Oil power didn't stay where it started. The countries controlling energy today look nothing like the map from 50 years ago. And right now, that map is shifting again faster than anyone expected. 🇺🇸 US: from import-dependent to world's n.1 producer 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 700K bpd knocked offline by Iranian strikes 🇷🇺 Russia: sanctions-hit but Urals just hit a 13 year high 🇮🇷 Iran: controls the world's most critical chokepoint 🌍 Everyone else: scrambling for alternatives Decades of energy geopolitics rewired in weeks. Hormuz didn't just block oil. It exposed exactly who holds the cards and who doesn't. The next energy map is being drawn right now. Also in LNG something big just happened if you want to know it read my latest article here:
Jack Prandelli62,705 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

In 15 months, the US LNG export capacity Doubled. In just over a year. And the world just realized why that matters. 🇶🇦 Qatar LNG via Hormuz: gone 🇷🇺 Russian LNG: back to sanction,backdoor deals 🇦🇺 Australia: maxed out 🇺🇸 US LNG: just doubled its export capacity. 📦 First country ever to export 100M metric tons LNG in a year 🔥 Natural gas production: record 118.5 bcf/day 🚢 Glencore locked in 3M tons/year for 20 years 🤝 Mercuria locked in 1.5M tons/year for 20 years US built the infrastructure before it happened. While Iran was building a toll booth Washington was permitting export terminals. The 121 tankers didn't appear overnight. Neither did the LNG capacity.
Jack Prandelli52,630 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇸 Utah just approved a massive AI data center twice the size of Manhattan It’s expected to use 9 gigawatts of power and 16.6 billion gallons of water per year in a state already battling severe drought💧 If you want to know the full case with names, math, triggers of the disclosure stocks. Read my latest article. The link is in the below comments👇 video source : Mario Nawfal
Jack Prandelli19,610 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 Yesterday, I published an article arguing that the drop in oil prices may be premature and tricky. Today, Jeff Currie said the same thing on Bloomberg TV. Currie is Carlyle's head of energy pathways. Before that, 25 years running Goldman Sachs' global commodities research. When he talks, the market listens. His call: oil flows through Hormuz will not normalize until the end of 2026. Not next week, not next month... End of year at the earliest. Why? De mining, Insurance, Tanker availability, Patrols, Inventory rebuilding.... It all takes months. The strait was effectively closed after the February conflict knocked over 10 million barrels per day offline. You don't reverse that with a signed memorandum. Trump is optimistic about rapid resumption. Currie is not. The financial market is pricing the headline. The physical market is pricing the reality. I wrote yesterday that the inventory hole is too deep. That the recovery timeline is months, not days. Currie just confirmed it on Bloomberg. Read my full analysis. Link in the comments 👇
Jack Prandelli12,550 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Discover the most common types of cargo ships, from massive Container Ships to specialized Livestock Carriers. Cargo Ship Types: ▪️ Oil tanker ▪️ LNG carrier ▪️ Container ship ▪️ Bulk carrier ▪️ Ro-Ro ▪️ Livestock carrier #ship #vessel #lng #carrier #logistics
Jack Prandelli14,793 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
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