Jo Bhakdi
@JOBhakdi • 41,264 subscribers
I generate https://t.co/cywH3xhdog with $TSLA and AI stocks. Founder of https://t.co/1UtTiAJjmi🚀Survive and Thrive in Age of AGI. 🤖https://t.co/f0ijY8pK3X 🫡
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Wall Street says a gigawatt of $SPCX Orbital compute costs $160 to $180 billion. Bank of America puts it around $165 billion. Wood Mackenzie says $170 billion. BNP Paribas says launch alone runs over $100 billion. Our model says $68 billion all in, falling to $43 billion by 2035. That's roughly $100 billion per gigawatt of difference. It comes down to timing. The banks are quoting what it costs today. Nobody is building a gigawatt in orbit today. The first real deployments land around 2028, and launch cost is the fastest-falling input in the whole stack. Quoting today's price for a 2028 build isn't conservative. It's the wrong number. Run the assumptions yourself at
Jo Bhakdi103,643 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
General Motors spent roughly $3 billion on advertising in 2025. Ford, around $2.7 billion. Toyota and Volkswagen, about $2 billion each. Tesla spends close to nothing. My rough estimate for what Tesla spent developing the new Roadster: about $3 billion. Could be $2 billion, could be $4 billion. Call it one year of GM’s ad budget. Now compare what each buys. GM gets a year of commercials people skip. Tesla gets a car lifting off the ground in front of a live audience, footage that runs everywhere for free, and a product people actually talk about. Ask which one makes you more likely to buy a Model Y. The Roadster may never be a big business. As marketing, it might be the most efficient spend in the industry. $TSLA
Jo Bhakdi32,368 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen
$SPCX fell 7% this week. That’s not random. The unlock calendar: October 9 (tomorrow): 328 million shares October 24: another 328 million Late October into November: 1.3 billion Nearly 2 billion shares becoming tradable in about six weeks. Each wave puts roughly 30 to 60 million shares straight into the market as holders diversify. What’s changed is the timing. At the last unlock, selling started four hours before the close the day before. Traders noticed. So this time I expected it to start two days early, with everyone trying to get out ahead of everyone else. It did. The unlock isn’t the event anymore. The anticipation of it is. Watch the days before, not the day of. Every upcoming unlock, tracked live:
Jo Bhakdi34,190 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
The SpaceX–Tesla merger is starting to look less like a rumor and more like a timeline. SpaceX has stabilized after the IPO slide. Each unlock still drops it, but it recovers quickly. That's price discovery working, and it puts SpaceX in a $2 to $2.5 trillion range. That matters for Tesla because of how a merger would likely be structured: SpaceX acquiring Tesla. Elon holds super-voting control at SpaceX. The math: Tesla sits around $1.4 trillion, SpaceX around $2 trillion. Value them equally and Tesla needs to add roughly $600 billion, about 40%. That puts the stock near $500. I used to want Tesla to stay independent. I've changed my mind. SpaceX is going to keep compounding through 2027, and Tesla shares converting into that at a premium isn't a bad outcome. Timing is the open question. Q1 is plausible. $TSLA and $SPCX trackers are live
Jo Bhakdi36,256 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Tomorrow, 328 million $SPCX shares unlock. Many holders are employees with nearly all their net worth in one stock. Even the bullish ones sell a slice to diversify, call it 20%. That's roughly 60 million shares hitting the market. SpaceX trades about 90 million shares a day. Put 60 million of new supply into 90 million of daily volume and the price gives. One condition: it has to be trading well above 135, the IPO price. Below that, holders don't sell.
Jo Bhakdi40,652 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
SpaceX reports earnings this week. Two days later, the biggest unlock yet. Start with the earnings. On roughly 450 megawatts of leased compute, SpaceX added around $26 billion in revenue. They now have about 2 gigawatts live. Scale that, and the compute business alone runs at something like $110 billion a year. That’s what makes this report unusual. A $2 trillion company where nobody would be shocked if earnings came in at a multiple of expectations. And unlike Micron, this demand isn’t cyclical. It’s contracted compute. I don’t normally hold through earnings. This time I will. Then the other side. Two days after the report, about 1.3 billion shares unlock, with another 328 million right behind. Roughly half the float becomes tradable within days. Strong earnings and a flood of supply in the same week. Watch which one wins. Unlock dates tracked live at
Jo Bhakdi15,342 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen
$TSLA Semi is a great product. It's just not a great product for Tesla right now. The constraint is batteries. Cybercab, Model Y and Semi all draw from the same limited supply of 4680 cells. So the question isn't whether Semi is good. It's what each cell earns. Per cell, Semi makes roughly 20 to 30% less than a Model Y, and far less than Cybercab. When supply is capped, you don't allocate to demand. You allocate to margin. Every cell in a Semi is a cell that didn't go into a higher-earning product. That's why Semi won't scale anytime soon, even though the market wants it.
Jo Bhakdi28,069 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Cybercab launches Thursday. Expect it to look small. There are already over 2,000 Cybercabs built. VINs past 2,400. The fleet exists. You just won't see it on day one. And that's on purpose. There is zero reason to deploy a hundred cars the first time they go commercial. All the risk is on the downside. One bad incident in week one and the story writes itself for a year. Take it slow. Prove it works. Then scale. So if Thursday is ten cars and the stock dips, that's not the launch failing. That's a company that already built THOUSANDS choosing not to show them yet. The full $TSLA Master Model is now AVAILABLE to download at
Jo Bhakdi30,444 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
One gigawatt of compute earns roughly the same gross profit as one million Cybercabs on the road. Sit with that. A million Cybercabs isn’t happening next year. Probably not the year after either. My view: 10 million in the 2030s, maybe 100 million in the 2040s. It’s a long build. A gigawatt is different. SpaceX added about 1.5 gigawatts this year and ends it near 2. Next year I expect another 3 to 5. That’s the equivalent of 3 million or more Cybercabs, next year, from a business most people still treat as a side story. This is why SpaceX doesn’t need to wait for robotaxi or orbital compute to pay off. Terrestrial compute fills the gap, and over the next 18 months it’s the biggest earnings ramp in the market.
Jo Bhakdi12,703 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen
SpaceX is worth roughly twice what Tesla is. It brings in about a third of the revenue. That's the comparison SpaceX bulls don't like to sit with. I'm not doubting the cash. Compute deals are coming in, and Q4 could be very strong. The question is different: at a $2.1 trillion valuation, how much of that is already priced in? Put them side by side. Tesla has Cybercab scaling, Optimus heading into production, and a full automotive and energy business underneath. SpaceX has Starlink, launch, and a compute buildout that's real but early. Is SpaceX worth two of that? Maybe. But when a stock is priced this far ahead, good news stops moving it. You need news that beats what's already assumed. Our live Cybercab tracker updates hourly at
Jo Bhakdi18,291 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
The usual rule: never short a stock you’re bullish on. If you’re right about the company, time is against you, and one surprise announcement wipes out the trade. I’m very bullish on $SPCX. I’m short it right now anyway. Because the setup is too obvious. Another wave of unlocked shares is hitting the market, holders are diversifying, and the selling pressure is mechanical, not fundamental. On top of that, the stock is a little overbought. So I break the rule, but narrowly. Short calls with a lot of buffer, not an outright short. Short duration. Sized so that if Elon pulls a rabbit out of the hat, it hurts but doesn’t kill. Shorting something you believe in only works when the reason is temporary and the exit is planned.
Jo Bhakdi13,838 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen
SpaceX has another unlock Thursday, September 24th. Roughly 15% more float hits the market. I've watched this pattern before, so here's the call: SpaceX drops Thursday, likely below 150, then spends the following days burning through the new shares in the sell queue. That's a tactical view, not a change in thesis. The bull case is intact. More compute deals are coming, with tens of billions in additional margin this year. So I'm staying long into Wednesday. Thursday I unload and turn tactically bearish for the unlock window. $SPCX
Jo Bhakdi20,650 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
SpaceX dropped yesterday on an unlock. Worth understanding the mechanic, because it repeats. 319 million shares came online, adding 17% to the float. As a rule of thumb, 20 to 25% of unlocked shares get sold almost immediately. Not because holders turn bearish. Because a SpaceX employee sitting on $5M in stock and $200k in savings gets told by every wealth adviser to diversify. That's roughly 80 million shares looking for a bid. But there's a floor to it. Below 135, the IPO price, holders won't sell. Above 135, they will. That single level splits the behavior. Which is why unlocks don't work like a one-day dip. They stack limit orders at a price and sit there. The stock can't advance until that volume clears, no matter how good the news is. You have to burn through the wall first.
Jo Bhakdi21,701 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Is The SpaceX Merge UNFAIR For Tesla Shareholders? My Rebellionaire Takedown!
Jo Bhakdi47,416 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
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Here is my BANNED YouTube video. CAUTION: This video contains extremely distressing content, including discounted cash flows and probabilistic Robotaxi scaling trajectories. BEFORE WATCHING, make sure there are NO CHILDREN in the room and lock the door. Also, THIS VIDEO IS NOT SAFE FOR WORK. YouTube did not explain the reason for the ban (but after you watch it, it will be obvious!) - they just referred to their policy with this link: "YouTube doesn’t allow content that encourages dangerous or illegal activities that risk serious physical harm or death." If you belong to ANY OF THE FOLLOWING GROUPS, this video might trigger EXTREME EMOTIONAL DISTRESS and may cause you to inflict PHYSICAL SELF-HARM, including DEATH: 1. Tesla Shorts 2. Waymo Employees 3. Google and YouTube Executives whose share price might be impacted by total Waymo failure Please Elon Musk don't ban me for this!
Jo Bhakdi65,293 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten
$TSLA has a much harder time falling from here than it does going up. Cybercab is scaling in real time. Registrations keep climbing, new deployments every week, and almost none of that progress is reflected in the price. When a stock trades below what its fundamentals are building toward, the downside narrows. That's conditional on the market. A broad selloff takes everything with it. But the job is simple: take what's actually being built, the robotaxi fleet, Optimus, the factories, and put a per-share value on it. Right now that value is simply above the stock price. Our live Cybercab tracker updates hourly at
Jo Bhakdi11,893 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Tesla dropped Thursday and most people blamed the event. That's not what happened. NHTSA opened an audit into Tesla's self-certification, the thing that lets them deploy Cybercab at scale. That's what hit the stock, and it's a much bigger deal than a lukewarm unveiling. Why the audit likely fails: FMVSS 135 requires human-usable brake pedals. Cybercab doesn't have them. Lars(Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla) argued the rule is satisfied in spirit. No humans, no need for a pedal. My read is there's no winning that argument in front of an auditor reading a checklist. No self-certification means Tesla needs an exemption. That exemption is capped at 2,500 vehicles by statute. Only Congress can move it. Path blocked. The real fix is already in motion. NHTSA published an NPRM in June to modernize FMVSS 135 for ADS-equipped vehicles. The comment period closed August 26th. Cybercab launched September 3rd. That sequencing isn't a coincidence. The main risk in those comments was always going to be competitors. Earliest the new rule could take effect is October. Waymo and Uber will spend every day between now and then trying to delay it. So going into next week: Tesla almost certainly can't scale past 2,500 control-less Cybercabs. October is a coin flip. The fallback is shipping Cybercabs with brake pedals, uglier but legal. The full $TSLA Master Model is now AVAILABLE to download at
Jo Bhakdi13,091 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten