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SpaceX has another unlock Thursday, September 24th. Roughly 15% more float hits the market. I've watched this pattern before, so here's the call: SpaceX drops Thursday, likely below 150, then spends the following days burning through the new shares in the sell queue. That's a tactical view, not a... show more

Jo Bhakdi

39,694 subscribers

20,650 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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12 Kommentare

Profilbild von Joe Macek

Joe Macekvor 1 Monat

Unlocks have been proven irrelevant. No one is liquidating. The shorts on IPO got their faces ripped off a month ago- they all got a good spanking and now they are done. $SPCX only spent 26 days below IPO - most IPOs are underwater a year later. Enjoy the ride to 700 and beyond.

Profilbild von BITCOINBUB2U

BITCOINBUB2Uvor 1 Monat

U have no idea- Insiders know what they own They don’t want to give away their shares like all the morons have suggested on here- Stand by for launch 🚀

Profilbild von beastredbeard

beastredbeardvor 1 Monat

Kicks rocks slop peddler

Profilbild von Maybe

Maybevor 1 Monat

Maybe a good time to trade some TSLA shares for SPCX then ? The ratio may get over 2.5:1

Profilbild von CyberJC

CyberJCvor 1 Monat

honestly unlock days have barely had any dips. in fact, next days have always been green after unlock.

Profilbild von N.M.

N.M.vor 1 Monat

Both still undervalued. TSLA $378.90 vs Street median $415. SPCX $154.72 vs $220. Checklist is the thesis — capex, revenue, production, execution, the full stack. Street median is a weather report. Not a ticket. Tuesday close. Not investment advice.

Profilbild von Cole Grinde

Cole Grindevor 1 Monat

I bought some March 2027 $150 LEAPS today.

Profilbild von nmuk

nmukvor 1 Monat

Keep on dreaming.....

Profilbild von JoeRiverside

JoeRiversidevor 1 Monat

The big banks have buyers lined up for these unlocks.

Profilbild von nmuk

nmukvor 1 Monat

Don't forget that Nasdaq-100 rebalancing which is pending - this is the liquidity provided just before it's really needed as the index fund percentage increased from 1.28% to 2.82% - so don't kid yourself that there's no buyers out there - this difference is absolutely huge.

Profilbild von LT Tom

LT Tomvor 1 Monat

Why don't you just trade 15 or 20 times a day and play the law of averages ? And spare us all your advice ?

Profilbild von Rip Bigley

Rip Bigleyvor 1 Monat

It’s the November unlock that could potentially change the pattern.

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🚨 SPACEX IS REPEATING TESLA 2010 Tesla’s post-IPO lock-up period ended in December 2010. Around 75 million shares became eligible for sale. That created a $1.9 BILLION unlock. $TSLA then crashed nearly 50%. $2.03 → $1.00 Now look at SpaceX. Today, $SPCX post-IPO lock-up period ends. Up to 911.5 MILLION shares become eligible for sale. That's $100 BILLION worth of sell pressure. Tesla 2010 → SpaceX 2026 Same setup. But the SpaceX unlock is more than 50× larger. Even if insiders sell only a small percentage, the market may not be ready for this supply. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨 SPACEX IS REPEATING TESLA 2010 Tesla’s post-IPO lock-up period ended in December 2010. Around 75 million shares became eligible for sale. That created a $1.9 BILLION unlock. $TSLA then crashed nearly 50%. $2.03 → $1.00 Now look at SpaceX. Today, $SPCX post-IPO lock-up period ends. Up to 911.5 MILLION shares become eligible for sale. That's $100 BILLION worth of sell pressure. Tesla 2010 → SpaceX 2026 Same setup. But the SpaceX unlock is more than 50× larger. Even if insiders sell only a small percentage, the market may not be ready for this supply. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

76,770 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Tomorrow, 328 million $SPCX shares unlock. Many holders are employees with nearly all their net worth in one stock. Even the bullish ones sell a slice to diversify, call it 20%. That's roughly 60 million shares hitting the market. SpaceX trades about 90 million shares a day. Put 60 million of new supply into 90 million of daily volume and the price gives. One condition: it has to be trading well above 135, the IPO price. Below that, holders don't sell.

Tomorrow, 328 million $SPCX shares unlock. Many holders are employees with nearly all their net worth in one stock. Even the bullish ones sell a slice to diversify, call it 20%. That's roughly 60 million shares hitting the market. SpaceX trades about 90 million shares a day. Put 60 million of new supply into 90 million of daily volume and the price gives. One condition: it has to be trading well above 135, the IPO price. Below that, holders don't sell.

Jo Bhakdi

40,652 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

WATCH OUT FOR THE SPACEX $SPCX SHARE UNLOCK Right now only ~4.5% of all SpaceX shares are available to be traded. Only the shares bought during the IPO can be traded. Everyone else who bought in before can not sell We do have some forced buying coming up from the Nasdaq 100 and other ETFs/indexes But then the unlocks begin and everyone who got into this name before the IPO will be able to start selling ... this first unlock happens at SpaceX's first earnings (More info below on the unlock) amit thinks a lot of those insiders are looking to sell "I was talking with friends who got in at $200B, $400B, and $800B valuations. They said there is no chance they are keeping more than 50% of their allocations once they get liquid. They are selling right off the bat."

WATCH OUT FOR THE SPACEX $SPCX SHARE UNLOCK Right now only ~4.5% of all SpaceX shares are available to be traded. Only the shares bought during the IPO can be traded. Everyone else who bought in before can not sell We do have some forced buying coming up from the Nasdaq 100 and other ETFs/indexes But then the unlocks begin and everyone who got into this name before the IPO will be able to start selling ... this first unlock happens at SpaceX's first earnings (More info below on the unlock) amit thinks a lot of those insiders are looking to sell "I was talking with friends who got in at $200B, $400B, and $800B valuations. They said there is no chance they are keeping more than 50% of their allocations once they get liquid. They are selling right off the bat."

Evan

144,195 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨THE LAST SPACEX TRAP HAS FORMED UP So, six days before 319 million shares unlock? This is NOT a coincidence folks. That's the exact setup that's burned buyers on this stock twice already this year. The cracks are already showing: SpaceX just reorganized its AI data center team over reliability problems. OpenAI reportedly cut Cursor's access. None of that stopped the pump. it never does, right before supply hits. $SPCX has yet to discover its bottom before the actual breakthrough. Follow me if you want to understand spacex

🚨THE LAST SPACEX TRAP HAS FORMED UP So, six days before 319 million shares unlock? This is NOT a coincidence folks. That's the exact setup that's burned buyers on this stock twice already this year. The cracks are already showing: SpaceX just reorganized its AI data center team over reliability problems. OpenAI reportedly cut Cursor's access. None of that stopped the pump. it never does, right before supply hits. $SPCX has yet to discover its bottom before the actual breakthrough. Follow me if you want to understand spacex

Frogify

30,341 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

SpaceX reports earnings this week. Two days later, the biggest unlock yet. Start with the earnings. On roughly 450 megawatts of leased compute, SpaceX added around $26 billion in revenue. They now have about 2 gigawatts live. Scale that, and the compute business alone runs at something like $110 billion a year. That’s what makes this report unusual. A $2 trillion company where nobody would be shocked if earnings came in at a multiple of expectations. And unlike Micron, this demand isn’t cyclical. It’s contracted compute. I don’t normally hold through earnings. This time I will. Then the other side. Two days after the report, about 1.3 billion shares unlock, with another 328 million right behind. Roughly half the float becomes tradable within days. Strong earnings and a flood of supply in the same week. Watch which one wins. Unlock dates tracked live at

SpaceX reports earnings this week. Two days later, the biggest unlock yet. Start with the earnings. On roughly 450 megawatts of leased compute, SpaceX added around $26 billion in revenue. They now have about 2 gigawatts live. Scale that, and the compute business alone runs at something like $110 billion a year. That’s what makes this report unusual. A $2 trillion company where nobody would be shocked if earnings came in at a multiple of expectations. And unlike Micron, this demand isn’t cyclical. It’s contracted compute. I don’t normally hold through earnings. This time I will. Then the other side. Two days after the report, about 1.3 billion shares unlock, with another 328 million right behind. Roughly half the float becomes tradable within days. Strong earnings and a flood of supply in the same week. Watch which one wins. Unlock dates tracked live at

Jo Bhakdi

15,342 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

🚨 THE BIGGEST IPO WARNING IN 27 YEARS This pattern has NEVER been wrong. 1999 → Palm IPO near the market top 2026 → SpaceX IPO near the market top After the Palm IPO, the S&P 500 crashed more than 50%. Now the same setup is forming again. Final pump with the SpaceX IPO. Then a brutal correction SpaceX will be the final liquidity event before the AI bubble breaks. Markets are NOT pricing this in yet. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨 THE BIGGEST IPO WARNING IN 27 YEARS This pattern has NEVER been wrong. 1999 → Palm IPO near the market top 2026 → SpaceX IPO near the market top After the Palm IPO, the S&P 500 crashed more than 50%. Now the same setup is forming again. Final pump with the SpaceX IPO. Then a brutal correction SpaceX will be the final liquidity event before the AI bubble breaks. Markets are NOT pricing this in yet. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

54,500 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

The more I look at the economics of AI infrastructure, the more bullish I become on SpaceX. David Sacks shared some fascinating numbers on All-In: - SpaceX: ~$50B in monetization per GW, with roughly a 1-year payback. - CoreWeave: ~$20B per GW, with roughly a 2.5-year payback. These are estimates, but the difference is enormous. A big reason is how the two companies structure their contracts. CoreWeave relies heavily on long-term commitments to finance its infrastructure. SpaceX has the balance sheet and access to capital to operate with much shorter contracts, giving it exposure to today’s significantly higher compute pricing. That flexibility is worth a LOT in a supply-constrained market. And consider what happens when you’re recovering your capital in roughly a year. You can reinvest that money into additional compute, bring more capacity online, and potentially accelerate growth without relying as heavily on external financing. Now consider SpaceX is targeting ~13 GW of operational compute capacity by the end of 2027. The economics at scale could be extraordinary if they execute. I’ve been extremely bullish on SpaceX for years, but the AI infrastructure opportunity has become a much bigger part of the investment thesis.

The more I look at the economics of AI infrastructure, the more bullish I become on SpaceX. David Sacks shared some fascinating numbers on All-In: - SpaceX: ~$50B in monetization per GW, with roughly a 1-year payback. - CoreWeave: ~$20B per GW, with roughly a 2.5-year payback. These are estimates, but the difference is enormous. A big reason is how the two companies structure their contracts. CoreWeave relies heavily on long-term commitments to finance its infrastructure. SpaceX has the balance sheet and access to capital to operate with much shorter contracts, giving it exposure to today’s significantly higher compute pricing. That flexibility is worth a LOT in a supply-constrained market. And consider what happens when you’re recovering your capital in roughly a year. You can reinvest that money into additional compute, bring more capacity online, and potentially accelerate growth without relying as heavily on external financing. Now consider SpaceX is targeting ~13 GW of operational compute capacity by the end of 2027. The economics at scale could be extraordinary if they execute. I’ve been extremely bullish on SpaceX for years, but the AI infrastructure opportunity has become a much bigger part of the investment thesis.

Timbo

460,463 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

🚨 SPACEX SELLOFF IS THE SETUP. NOT THE STORY. Everyone is watching the $SPCX unlocks. Nobody is watching the deal behind it. Tesla is converting its $2B xAI stake into direct ownership of SpaceX. Once it closes, TSLA holders own SpaceX without touching a single $SPCX share. That is the first move of a merger. Wedbush puts the odds of a full merger by 2027 at 80-90%. He has done this before. 2016: Tesla absorbed SolarCity. Wall Street called it a bailout. TSLA then ran 4,828%. Every $10,000 became $500,000. Now he is doing it at ten times the scale. The unlock wave drives $SPCX straight into my zone before the merger is priced in. My accumulation zone: $85 to $100. That is pre-merger SpaceX while the crowd is still trading unlock fear. SolarCity holders waited ten years for the payoff. This one reprices in months. Reminder: I warned before Gold and Silver topped, before Oil collapsed, before SpaceX dropped, and before Bitcoin broke. When $SPCX hits my zone, I post the exact level publicly. Turn notifications on before the market figures out what he is building.

🚨 SPACEX SELLOFF IS THE SETUP. NOT THE STORY. Everyone is watching the $SPCX unlocks. Nobody is watching the deal behind it. Tesla is converting its $2B xAI stake into direct ownership of SpaceX. Once it closes, TSLA holders own SpaceX without touching a single $SPCX share. That is the first move of a merger. Wedbush puts the odds of a full merger by 2027 at 80-90%. He has done this before. 2016: Tesla absorbed SolarCity. Wall Street called it a bailout. TSLA then ran 4,828%. Every $10,000 became $500,000. Now he is doing it at ten times the scale. The unlock wave drives $SPCX straight into my zone before the merger is priced in. My accumulation zone: $85 to $100. That is pre-merger SpaceX while the crowd is still trading unlock fear. SolarCity holders waited ten years for the payoff. This one reprices in months. Reminder: I warned before Gold and Silver topped, before Oil collapsed, before SpaceX dropped, and before Bitcoin broke. When $SPCX hits my zone, I post the exact level publicly. Turn notifications on before the market figures out what he is building.

Nonzee

49,946 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 SPACEX IS DONE? It opened at $150, ripped to $225 in three days, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now it's at $145 - an all-time low, below the open, sitting a few dollars above the IPO price. Down 35% from the top. The chart isn't breaking. It already broke. And this was the easy part. Here's where it goes from here: $145 → $135 → $120 → $100 Why this has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule just to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, and every passive fund on the planet was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits on August 6 - right at Q2 earnings. About 20% of insider shares go free, and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to a full unlock. Sit with that. This entire 35% collapse happened on a tiny float, with no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new all-time highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem that's a SpaceX problem. The hype died, the capex is enormous, the valuation is priced at ~100x sales, and the unlock cliff is dead ahead. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. The next leg is where the real money gets made but not on the long side yet. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in 30 days wishing you had.

🚨 SPACEX IS DONE? It opened at $150, ripped to $225 in three days, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now it's at $145 - an all-time low, below the open, sitting a few dollars above the IPO price. Down 35% from the top. The chart isn't breaking. It already broke. And this was the easy part. Here's where it goes from here: $145 → $135 → $120 → $100 Why this has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule just to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, and every passive fund on the planet was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits on August 6 - right at Q2 earnings. About 20% of insider shares go free, and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to a full unlock. Sit with that. This entire 35% collapse happened on a tiny float, with no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new all-time highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem that's a SpaceX problem. The hype died, the capex is enormous, the valuation is priced at ~100x sales, and the unlock cliff is dead ahead. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. The next leg is where the real money gets made but not on the long side yet. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in 30 days wishing you had.

Shelpid.WI3M

356,362 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$SPCX fell 7% this week. That’s not random. The unlock calendar: October 9 (tomorrow): 328 million shares October 24: another 328 million Late October into November: 1.3 billion Nearly 2 billion shares becoming tradable in about six weeks. Each wave puts roughly 30 to 60 million shares straight into the market as holders diversify. What’s changed is the timing. At the last unlock, selling started four hours before the close the day before. Traders noticed. So this time I expected it to start two days early, with everyone trying to get out ahead of everyone else. It did. The unlock isn’t the event anymore. The anticipation of it is. Watch the days before, not the day of. Every upcoming unlock, tracked live:

$SPCX fell 7% this week. That’s not random. The unlock calendar: October 9 (tomorrow): 328 million shares October 24: another 328 million Late October into November: 1.3 billion Nearly 2 billion shares becoming tradable in about six weeks. Each wave puts roughly 30 to 60 million shares straight into the market as holders diversify. What’s changed is the timing. At the last unlock, selling started four hours before the close the day before. Traders noticed. So this time I expected it to start two days early, with everyone trying to get out ahead of everyone else. It did. The unlock isn’t the event anymore. The anticipation of it is. Watch the days before, not the day of. Every upcoming unlock, tracked live:

Jo Bhakdi

34,190 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

$120 BILLION IN SPACEX SHARES UNLOCK THIS WEEK The real event isn't earnings it's Thursday Up to 911 million insider and early investor shares become eligible to unlock on August 6 roughly $120 billion in value hitting the market at once Stock is already sitting at $105 down 20% from the $135 IPO price and 50% below the $225 peak Options are pricing a 13% move on earnings today after the US close SpaceX's first ever quarterly report as a public company But earnings are just the appetizer The main course is the largest single unlock event in IPO history landing 48 hours later You already know what that means

$120 BILLION IN SPACEX SHARES UNLOCK THIS WEEK The real event isn't earnings it's Thursday Up to 911 million insider and early investor shares become eligible to unlock on August 6 roughly $120 billion in value hitting the market at once Stock is already sitting at $105 down 20% from the $135 IPO price and 50% below the $225 peak Options are pricing a 13% move on earnings today after the US close SpaceX's first ever quarterly report as a public company But earnings are just the appetizer The main course is the largest single unlock event in IPO history landing 48 hours later You already know what that means

philarekt

23,436 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 $SPCX BUYERS ARE NOT READY FOR WHAT COMES NEXT SpaceX is already trading above $2T. The crowd sees the next Tesla. Insiders see the first exit window. Retail got access at the top of the hype cycle. Retail allocation was pushed up to 30%. Now look at the unlock schedule: First earnings + 2 trading days: Up to 20% of eligible shares can unlock. If the stock stays strong, that can rise to 30%. Then more shares unlock in waves: 70 days. 90 days. 105 days. 135 days. After the second quarterly report, another large block opens. At 180 days, the standard lockup opens. Musk and key insiders stay locked for 366 days. So ask yourself: Why give retail access right before the float starts expanding? Because that is how exits are built. First comes the hype. Then comes the sideways death. Then come the unlocks. Then retail realizes they bought the liquidity event, not the opportunity. The real entry comes when the hype dies, the unlocks hit, and nobody wants to touch $SPCX anymore. That is where smart money starts looking. If you’ve been following me, you already caught the $16K Bitcoin bottom and the $126K top. The next call is coming. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 $SPCX BUYERS ARE NOT READY FOR WHAT COMES NEXT SpaceX is already trading above $2T. The crowd sees the next Tesla. Insiders see the first exit window. Retail got access at the top of the hype cycle. Retail allocation was pushed up to 30%. Now look at the unlock schedule: First earnings + 2 trading days: Up to 20% of eligible shares can unlock. If the stock stays strong, that can rise to 30%. Then more shares unlock in waves: 70 days. 90 days. 105 days. 135 days. After the second quarterly report, another large block opens. At 180 days, the standard lockup opens. Musk and key insiders stay locked for 366 days. So ask yourself: Why give retail access right before the float starts expanding? Because that is how exits are built. First comes the hype. Then comes the sideways death. Then come the unlocks. Then retail realizes they bought the liquidity event, not the opportunity. The real entry comes when the hype dies, the unlocks hit, and nobody wants to touch $SPCX anymore. That is where smart money starts looking. If you’ve been following me, you already caught the $16K Bitcoin bottom and the $126K top. The next call is coming. Follow me and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

62,879 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 SPACEX FELL 50% - EXACTLY WHAT I WANTED I told you this drop was coming. SpaceX is now down almost ~50% from its peak. The $SPCX falling right now is actually the part I've been waiting for. Everyone's screaming "failed IPO." They're right about the price and wrong about what it means. Here's what's actually happening: ~5% of SpaceX floats. The rest unlocks in waves - 20% after Q2 earnings, then tranches through November. Each wave dumps supply onto a stock that already stopped buying at $225. That's the mechanic crushing it. Not the company. The plumbing. And yes - the bears have real points. Japan landed a reusable rocket. Flight 13 slipped. The valuation is stretched. That's exactly why this keeps bleeding through every unlock. But watch what happens on the other side. Once the float is fat and the last locked shares hit the tape, the supply overhang is gone. No more forced sellers. That's the moment the sellers run dry - and that's when real size steps in, not before. Institutions don't buy the hype at $225. They buy the exhaustion after the final unlock, when the timeline has already left for dead. The unlock schedule is the whole map. I'm not buying yet. The best entry of 2026 is on the far side of these waves. You'll know the moment I move. NFA. Notifications on. Sorry, but you WILL regret not following me earlier.

🚨 SPACEX FELL 50% - EXACTLY WHAT I WANTED I told you this drop was coming. SpaceX is now down almost ~50% from its peak. The $SPCX falling right now is actually the part I've been waiting for. Everyone's screaming "failed IPO." They're right about the price and wrong about what it means. Here's what's actually happening: ~5% of SpaceX floats. The rest unlocks in waves - 20% after Q2 earnings, then tranches through November. Each wave dumps supply onto a stock that already stopped buying at $225. That's the mechanic crushing it. Not the company. The plumbing. And yes - the bears have real points. Japan landed a reusable rocket. Flight 13 slipped. The valuation is stretched. That's exactly why this keeps bleeding through every unlock. But watch what happens on the other side. Once the float is fat and the last locked shares hit the tape, the supply overhang is gone. No more forced sellers. That's the moment the sellers run dry - and that's when real size steps in, not before. Institutions don't buy the hype at $225. They buy the exhaustion after the final unlock, when the timeline has already left for dead. The unlock schedule is the whole map. I'm not buying yet. The best entry of 2026 is on the far side of these waves. You'll know the moment I move. NFA. Notifications on. Sorry, but you WILL regret not following me earlier.

Frogify

3,102,970 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨EVERYTHING IS GOING EXACTLY AS I SAID!!! It IPO'd, ripped, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now we're at $110 and the chart has already broken. And this was the easy part. Here's the full map, day by day: IPO → the top 10 days → $160 20 days → $140 NOW → $110 60 days → $90 80 days → $70 ← the bottom 100 days → $110 120 days → $200 140 days → $300 Down to $70 first. Then the reversal that makes people rich. Why the drop has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, so every passive fund was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits August 6 at Q2 earnings ~20% of insider shares go free and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to full unlock. Sit with that. This entire collapse happened on a tiny float with almost no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. That's what takes us to $70. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem - that's a SpaceX problem. Hype dead, capex enormous, valuation near 100x sales, unlock cliff dead ahead. But here's the part nobody's ready for: once that last unlock clears and the forced sellers are gone, the supply overhang disappears. That's when it reverses: $70 → $110 → $200 → $300. The bottom isn't where you panic. It's where you position. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in a few months wishing you had.

🚨EVERYTHING IS GOING EXACTLY AS I SAID!!! It IPO'd, ripped, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now we're at $110 and the chart has already broken. And this was the easy part. Here's the full map, day by day: IPO → the top 10 days → $160 20 days → $140 NOW → $110 60 days → $90 80 days → $70 ← the bottom 100 days → $110 120 days → $200 140 days → $300 Down to $70 first. Then the reversal that makes people rich. Why the drop has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, so every passive fund was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits August 6 at Q2 earnings ~20% of insider shares go free and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to full unlock. Sit with that. This entire collapse happened on a tiny float with almost no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. That's what takes us to $70. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem - that's a SpaceX problem. Hype dead, capex enormous, valuation near 100x sales, unlock cliff dead ahead. But here's the part nobody's ready for: once that last unlock clears and the forced sellers are gone, the supply overhang disappears. That's when it reverses: $70 → $110 → $200 → $300. The bottom isn't where you panic. It's where you position. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in a few months wishing you had.

Shelpid.WI3M

238,264 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 THE SPACEX BOTTOM HAS A DATE AND IT'S NOT YET Everyone's asking if SPCX is done falling. Look at the unlock schedule, and you'll have your answer. The float is still expanding. Every single wave adds more supply to a stock that already can't find buyers: → Aug 11 - Wave 1, +20% float, now ~25% unlocked. → Sep 25 - +7%, float hits ~46%. → Oct 25 - +7%, float hits ~60%. → Nov 9 - Q3 unlock, +28%, and the real flood begins. That's the whole story right there. You can't bottom while supply is still hitting the tape. Now map it onto the emotional cycle, because that's exactly what's playing out: Euphoria at the top, right after IPO. Everyone called it the buy of the decade. Denial in late September. The bounces that get sold, the "it's coming back" posts. Bottom around December, once the last unlock clears and there's nobody left to sell. Then it flips. Belief by February. And the run toward $300 after that. The bottom isn't a mystery. It's a math problem, and the answer sits right after the final unlock, not before it. Most people will panic-sell into December and FOMO back above $200. I'm doing the opposite. Turn notifications on. I'll post the moment I start buying.

🚨 THE SPACEX BOTTOM HAS A DATE AND IT'S NOT YET Everyone's asking if SPCX is done falling. Look at the unlock schedule, and you'll have your answer. The float is still expanding. Every single wave adds more supply to a stock that already can't find buyers: → Aug 11 - Wave 1, +20% float, now ~25% unlocked. → Sep 25 - +7%, float hits ~46%. → Oct 25 - +7%, float hits ~60%. → Nov 9 - Q3 unlock, +28%, and the real flood begins. That's the whole story right there. You can't bottom while supply is still hitting the tape. Now map it onto the emotional cycle, because that's exactly what's playing out: Euphoria at the top, right after IPO. Everyone called it the buy of the decade. Denial in late September. The bounces that get sold, the "it's coming back" posts. Bottom around December, once the last unlock clears and there's nobody left to sell. Then it flips. Belief by February. And the run toward $300 after that. The bottom isn't a mystery. It's a math problem, and the answer sits right after the final unlock, not before it. Most people will panic-sell into December and FOMO back above $200. I'm doing the opposite. Turn notifications on. I'll post the moment I start buying.

Qmo

113,923 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 THIS COULD BE ELON’S BIGGEST $SPCX PLAY 2016: Tesla buys SolarCity. Wall Street calls it a bailout. $TSLA goes on to run 4,800%+ from that era. $10K → nearly $500K. Now we may be watching the same setup play out on a much bigger scale with $SPCX: Feb 2026 → SpaceX absorbs xAI, combined entity valued at $1.25T March 2026 → FTC clears Tesla’s $2B xAI stake to convert into SpaceX equity June 2026 → Wedbush puts 80–90% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger by early 2027 Meanwhile, the first lockup tranche just freed nearly 1 BILLION shares. $SPCX has been cut in half from its June peak and is trading well below the $135 IPO price. More supply comes through August → bigger Q3 unlock → full unlock in December. That’s not the thesis breaking. That’s the float clearing before the next major leg. My zone: $85–$100. SolarCity holders sat through years of “bailout” headlines before the real payoff. This time, the catalysts are already lining up. You’re early, or you’re the exit liquidity. Follow + turn notifications on. I’ll keep you updated.

🚨 THIS COULD BE ELON’S BIGGEST $SPCX PLAY 2016: Tesla buys SolarCity. Wall Street calls it a bailout. $TSLA goes on to run 4,800%+ from that era. $10K → nearly $500K. Now we may be watching the same setup play out on a much bigger scale with $SPCX: Feb 2026 → SpaceX absorbs xAI, combined entity valued at $1.25T March 2026 → FTC clears Tesla’s $2B xAI stake to convert into SpaceX equity June 2026 → Wedbush puts 80–90% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger by early 2027 Meanwhile, the first lockup tranche just freed nearly 1 BILLION shares. $SPCX has been cut in half from its June peak and is trading well below the $135 IPO price. More supply comes through August → bigger Q3 unlock → full unlock in December. That’s not the thesis breaking. That’s the float clearing before the next major leg. My zone: $85–$100. SolarCity holders sat through years of “bailout” headlines before the real payoff. This time, the catalysts are already lining up. You’re early, or you’re the exit liquidity. Follow + turn notifications on. I’ll keep you updated.

DANNY

99,028 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The SpaceX–Tesla merger is starting to look less like a rumor and more like a timeline. SpaceX has stabilized after the IPO slide. Each unlock still drops it, but it recovers quickly. That's price discovery working, and it puts SpaceX in a $2 to $2.5 trillion range. That matters for Tesla because of how a merger would likely be structured: SpaceX acquiring Tesla. Elon holds super-voting control at SpaceX. The math: Tesla sits around $1.4 trillion, SpaceX around $2 trillion. Value them equally and Tesla needs to add roughly $600 billion, about 40%. That puts the stock near $500. I used to want Tesla to stay independent. I've changed my mind. SpaceX is going to keep compounding through 2027, and Tesla shares converting into that at a premium isn't a bad outcome. Timing is the open question. Q1 is plausible. $TSLA and $SPCX trackers are live

The SpaceX–Tesla merger is starting to look less like a rumor and more like a timeline. SpaceX has stabilized after the IPO slide. Each unlock still drops it, but it recovers quickly. That's price discovery working, and it puts SpaceX in a $2 to $2.5 trillion range. That matters for Tesla because of how a merger would likely be structured: SpaceX acquiring Tesla. Elon holds super-voting control at SpaceX. The math: Tesla sits around $1.4 trillion, SpaceX around $2 trillion. Value them equally and Tesla needs to add roughly $600 billion, about 40%. That puts the stock near $500. I used to want Tesla to stay independent. I've changed my mind. SpaceX is going to keep compounding through 2027, and Tesla shares converting into that at a premium isn't a bad outcome. Timing is the open question. Q1 is plausible. $TSLA and $SPCX trackers are live

Jo Bhakdi

36,256 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🩸 THE SPACEX SELLING HAS NOT EVEN STARTED YET. The stock is already down 30% from its high. And the unlocks have not begun. Here is the supply cliff ahead. August. The first wave frees up. September. More. October. More. November. The biggest one. Each unlock dumps new supply onto a thin float. More sellers. Same buyers. Lower prices. The insiders waited 15 years for this. You really think they hold through all four?

🩸 THE SPACEX SELLING HAS NOT EVEN STARTED YET. The stock is already down 30% from its high. And the unlocks have not begun. Here is the supply cliff ahead. August. The first wave frees up. September. More. October. More. November. The biggest one. Each unlock dumps new supply onto a thin float. More sellers. Same buyers. Lower prices. The insiders waited 15 years for this. You really think they hold through all four?

Mister Crypto

20,035 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 TODAY IS THE WORST DAY FOR SPACEX You thought the bad revenue news was the worst $SPCX had to offer? Not even close Because TODAY is an even more historic date: the FIRST UNLOCK event $100 billion in shares hit the market today Everyone who wanted to sell before but couldn't - now they can Because until today we were only trading 5% of the total supply With today's unlocks, that number jumps to 35% That's 7x more supply hitting a market that's already shaky Short-term? Painful The dump is real and it's happening now But here's what the panic crowd is missing: This was always on the calendar The smart money knew. The exit liquidity was already priced in by those who understood the structure I've warned you about this more than once before If you've been following me, you knew what was coming And this is just the first unlock of many to come We're not at rock bottom yet But it's not as far off as you think - just be patient

🚨 TODAY IS THE WORST DAY FOR SPACEX You thought the bad revenue news was the worst $SPCX had to offer? Not even close Because TODAY is an even more historic date: the FIRST UNLOCK event $100 billion in shares hit the market today Everyone who wanted to sell before but couldn't - now they can Because until today we were only trading 5% of the total supply With today's unlocks, that number jumps to 35% That's 7x more supply hitting a market that's already shaky Short-term? Painful The dump is real and it's happening now But here's what the panic crowd is missing: This was always on the calendar The smart money knew. The exit liquidity was already priced in by those who understood the structure I've warned you about this more than once before If you've been following me, you knew what was coming And this is just the first unlock of many to come We're not at rock bottom yet But it's not as far off as you think - just be patient

NoName

32,248 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

One gigawatt of compute earns roughly the same gross profit as one million Cybercabs on the road. Sit with that. A million Cybercabs isn’t happening next year. Probably not the year after either. My view: 10 million in the 2030s, maybe 100 million in the 2040s. It’s a long build. A gigawatt is different. SpaceX added about 1.5 gigawatts this year and ends it near 2. Next year I expect another 3 to 5. That’s the equivalent of 3 million or more Cybercabs, next year, from a business most people still treat as a side story. This is why SpaceX doesn’t need to wait for robotaxi or orbital compute to pay off. Terrestrial compute fills the gap, and over the next 18 months it’s the biggest earnings ramp in the market.

One gigawatt of compute earns roughly the same gross profit as one million Cybercabs on the road. Sit with that. A million Cybercabs isn’t happening next year. Probably not the year after either. My view: 10 million in the 2030s, maybe 100 million in the 2040s. It’s a long build. A gigawatt is different. SpaceX added about 1.5 gigawatts this year and ends it near 2. Next year I expect another 3 to 5. That’s the equivalent of 3 million or more Cybercabs, next year, from a business most people still treat as a side story. This is why SpaceX doesn’t need to wait for robotaxi or orbital compute to pay off. Terrestrial compute fills the gap, and over the next 18 months it’s the biggest earnings ramp in the market.

Jo Bhakdi

12,703 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen