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Leni

@lenion31,137 subscribers

Ex. barber. Now a full-time trader. Turning knowledge into wealth. Discipline is key. NFA

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🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200+ billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important

Leni

534,315 views • 20 days ago

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🚨 GOLD IS REPEATING THE SCENARIO OF THE 2013 CRASH I've seen this before and I don't like how it ends Back then, people also believed that after years of gains, it was just a correction Since the beginning of 2026, gold has already fallen about 24% from its all-time high of $5,600 per ounce And March turned out to be the worst month since June 2013 - the exact moment when the most painful phase of the previous bear market began The scenario is repeating: Rally → ATH → Hawkish Fed → ETF outflows → Loss of momentum → Deep correction So far, almost everything lines up: 1. After the ATH, profit-taking accelerated Just like in 2011, gold rallied for years on fear, inflation, and crisis expectations But after peaking, the market started losing momentum 2. The Fed is once again the main source of pressure In 2013, investors feared tapering and rising real yields Today looks similar: the Fed remains hawkish, inflation is still elevated, the dollar is strengthening, and real yields are rising Historically, that's one of the worst environments for gold 3. Safe-haven demand is fading Tensions around Iran have eased Some capital is already rotating out of safe-haven assets and back into risk 4. ETFs are starting to reverse March saw strong outflows from gold ETFs Historically, major ETF outflows often appear when the market regime starts changing Yes, central banks are still buying gold But even record purchases by central banks can only soften the downside if the macro environment continues to deteriorate for gold If the Fed stays hawkish and the U.S. economy remains strong, the $4,100-4,200 zone may end up being just a temporary stop The main idea is simple: The market has already gone through the euphoria phase And if the 2011-2013 analogy continues to hold, the current decline may not be the end of the correction I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important

Leni

146,058 views • 12 days ago

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🚨 WARNING: THE SPACEX IPO IS THE BIGGEST TRAP OF 2026 Read this post carefully before buying SpaceX shares In 4 days, $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq The biggest IPO in history, with a valuation of around $1.8 trillion You may have noticed that demand has already exceeded $150 billion, while the public float is only 4-5% And I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the stock could easily jump 20-50% in the first days or weeks purely because of FOMO and the limited share supply But after that, the picture could change dramatically! 1. SpaceX didn't use the standard 180-day lock-up Instead, the S-1 includes a phased unlock schedule Insiders, employees, and early investors will be able to sell shares in stages starting in August: - August 21 (70 days) - +7% - September 10 (90 days) - +7% - September 25 (105 days) - +7% - October 10 (120 days) - +7% - October 25 (135 days) - +7% 2. On top of that, they removed the profitability requirement and are adding SpaceX to major indexes just 5 days after the IPO, while the usual waiting period is 90 days That forces 401(k) pension funds and passive index funds to buy SpaceX shares at inflated IPO prices and keep holding them throughout any decline 3. On top of that, there are major share releases after the Q2 earnings report (August) and Q3 earnings report (November) If the stock is trading 30% above the IPO price after Q2, a performance bonus will kick in and another +10% will be unlocked This staggered selling structure reduces the chance of one massive crash, but it creates several waves of selling pressure between August and November For comparison: when Meta went public in 2012 (one of the top 3 largest IPO in U.S. history, with a $104 billion valuation) The stock fell more than 60% within a few months after the IPO due to lock-up expirations and market concerns about its ability to monetize its business And there's one very important thing you need to remember! 4. The company is still unprofitable, posting roughly a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 Passive funds (Nasdaq-100) will become forced buyers, but at the first sign of bad news they'll become forced sellers That's why I'm warning you not to become exit liquidity for insiders and VCs who have already made huge money from private funding rounds In the short term, the IPO looks very attractive for traders who know how to speculate But if you're planning to hold, you need to clearly understand this: August through November could bring serious volatility and a major correction I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important

Leni

200,873 views • 22 days ago

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🚨SILVER IS REPEATING THE 2011-2013 CRASH SCENARIO I've seen this before, and I don't like how it ends Since January 2026, silver has dropped around 48% from its all-time high of $121.6/oz, making January and February some of the worst months since 2011 The scenario is repeating almost perfectly: Rally → ATH → Hawkish Fed → ETF outflows → Loss of momentum → Deep Correction 1. After the ATH, profit-taking accelerated Just like in 2011, silver rallied for years on inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of a structural supply deficit But after the peak, the momentum started to fade 2. The Fed is once again the main source of pressure Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and expectations of tighter monetary policy are strengthening the dollar and pushing real yields higher - a bearish scenario for silver With money rotating from commodities into equities as the U.S. economy stays resilient, silver tends to underperform gold 3. Safe-haven demand is fading If tensions around Iran, the Middle East, or other geopolitical conflicts continue to ease, the safe-haven premium will keep shrinking Money will start flowing back into risk assets again 4. ETF outflows and speculative positions are unwinding During the 2026 correction, silver ETF saw noticeable outflows as investors reduced exposure and risk appetite faded Historically a sign of changing market sentiment 5. Margin requirements and leverage Back in 2011, CME margin hikes were one of the main catalysts behind the crash Today's market once again looks dominated by speculation after a parabolic rally 6. Fundamentally, silver is stronger than in 2011 due to a structural supply deficit and rising industrial demand However, the speculative and investment side of the market is behaving almost the same way it did in 2011 And unlike gold, silver doesn't benefit much from central bank buying, since central banks mainly accumulate gold, not silver If the 2011-2013 analogy keeps playing out: The current decline may not be the end of the correction A move down to the $50-55 range is possible, and in a more bearish scenario, silver could even fall toward $40+ over the next 6-18 months before industrial demand and supply deficits take control again I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important

Leni

56,078 views • 8 days ago

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