Leni
@lenion • 33,274 subscribers
Ex. barber. Now a full-time trader. Turning knowledge into wealth. Discipline is key. NFA
Videos
🚨 GOLD IS NOT DONE FALLING Nobody wants to hear this, but read this first Right now, several factors are putting pressure on gold at the same time: → High Fed interest rates. As long as the market isn't expecting rate cuts and bond yields stay elevated, gold becomes less attractive → Easing geopolitical tensions are reducing demand for safe-haven assets → After a strong rally, many investors are taking profits, adding more selling pressure → Central banks have been one of the biggest buyers of gold. If that demand starts to slow down, the market loses a major source of support (Turkey is already selling gold) → A strong U.S. economy and a stronger dollar are pushing capital back into stocks and other risk assets → Historically, after major rallies, gold often corrects by 20-40%, and late summer into early fall has usually been a weak seasonal period Do you realize what this means? One catalyst alone wouldn't worry me But when all of them start aligning at the same time, I pay attention That's exactly what's happening now I've said this before, and everything's still going according to my plan The next phase is gonna be very important Turn on notifications. If you're not following yet, you'll probably find this account after the move, not before it
Leni476,028 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200+ billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni550,970 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
🚨 S&P 500 MORE DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW THAN IT LOOKS The illusion of safety is what can make you poor I keep seeing people say, "It probably won't crash, it always goes up" That's exactly what concerns me When you buy an individual stock, you got that you can lose money But with the S&P 500, it's different, most people don't even consider the possibility of a crash anymore Just look at the dot-com bubble - back then, everyone thought everything was fine and the index would keep climbing for years But the final stage of every bubble begins when prices become absurd and fear disappears And prices right now really are getting absurd. The index is printing new highs almost every day with barely any meaningful pullbacks I'm not saying a crash is coming Monday, for example, but I am warning you that markets become the most vulnerable when the majority stops seeing any risk Right now I'm watching investor confidence closely, and the level of euphoria is extreme. That's usually the final stage Are you ready for what could happen next? Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni508,852 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
GOLD WILL BREAK 4,000 SUPPORT 4,800 → 3,940 → 4,200 → 3,850 (next) → 4,000 This is a liquidity grab in a downtrend Nobody wants to believe it But that's how the market works and the bull rally is over This could continue all the way down to 3,450 I told you about this before
Leni231,769 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
BITCOIN HAS FORMED A DESCENDING CHANNEL 58K (done) → 65K (done) → 57K (next) → 54K As I told you, it happened Most of you are still trying to catch the bottom You're not gonna pull it off no matter how hard you try You're better off accumulating now while you've still got the chance
Leni183,642 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce
This is the final stage before the cycle bottom Bitcoin is forming a descending channel This happened in 2022, and it's happening again right now Within the next 2-3 months, this bear market will be over See you this fall in the new $BTC bull cycle I've said this before, and everything's still going according to my plan The next phase is gonna be very important Turn on notifications. If you're not following yet, you'll probably find this account after the move, not before it
Leni214,696 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 GOLD IS REPEATING THE SCENARIO OF THE 2013 CRASH I've seen this before and I don't like how it ends Back then, people also believed that after years of gains, it was just a correction Since the beginning of 2026, gold has already fallen about 24% from its all-time high of $5,600 per ounce And March turned out to be the worst month since June 2013 - the exact moment when the most painful phase of the previous bear market began The scenario is repeating: Rally → ATH → Hawkish Fed → ETF outflows → Loss of momentum → Deep correction So far, almost everything lines up: 1. After the ATH, profit-taking accelerated Just like in 2011, gold rallied for years on fear, inflation, and crisis expectations But after peaking, the market started losing momentum 2. The Fed is once again the main source of pressure In 2013, investors feared tapering and rising real yields Today looks similar: the Fed remains hawkish, inflation is still elevated, the dollar is strengthening, and real yields are rising Historically, that's one of the worst environments for gold 3. Safe-haven demand is fading Tensions around Iran have eased Some capital is already rotating out of safe-haven assets and back into risk 4. ETFs are starting to reverse March saw strong outflows from gold ETFs Historically, major ETF outflows often appear when the market regime starts changing Yes, central banks are still buying gold But even record purchases by central banks can only soften the downside if the macro environment continues to deteriorate for gold If the Fed stays hawkish and the U.S. economy remains strong, the $4,100-4,200 zone may end up being just a temporary stop The main idea is simple: The market has already gone through the euphoria phase And if the 2011-2013 analogy continues to hold, the current decline may not be the end of the correction I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni279,882 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 This scenario has repeated itself for 3 cycles in a row It shows up BEFORE EVERY major manipulation That's why I'm still bearish on Bitcoin You need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now we're in the MANIPULATION phase Distribution is already over But accumulation hasn't even started yet And I don't understand why most people don't see it - it's the same thing every cycle, just look at the chart, study Wyckoff, and it'll all make sense 2018 → 2022 → 2026 I also don't get the people waiting for $30k, think about it yourself - is it possible? Absolutely But what are the chances it actually happens? Pretty low This is exactly how smart money shakes out the last weak hands and turns you into exit liquidity So sure, you can buy here, but only through DCA, don't assume the bottom is in, you should have buy targets set for every major dip I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan In 2-3 weeks we'll see who's actually right Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni311,638 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
EXPECTATIONS FOR SILVER ARE SIMPLE Short from 61 Short below 54 Spot buy below 48 Heavy spot buy below 39 Hold for 2-3 years, then sell Longs will get liquidated, shorts will be rewarded Long-term buyers will be rewarded even more That's exactly how wealth is built I told you about this before
Leni120,080 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
THIS BITCOIN FVG SHOULD BE FILLED We've seen FVG like these and every one of them got filled Throughout this entire bear cycle: 98-96.5k FVG (done) 81-79,3k FVG (done) 70-67.4k FVG (right now) I said the next target is $57k But the ideal scenario is for this FVG to get filled first After that, the path to $57k is wide open
Leni99,961 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce
Something strange is happening Since 2013, Bitcoin has traded within an ascending channel But it may be on the verge of breaking below it The monthly $BTC chart doesn't look very good right now Most people will only notice the setup after the move starts Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni182,179 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨SILVER IS REPEATING THE 2011-2013 CRASH SCENARIO I've seen this before, and I don't like how it ends Since January 2026, silver has dropped around 48% from its all-time high of $121.6/oz, making January and February some of the worst months since 2011 The scenario is repeating almost perfectly: Rally → ATH → Hawkish Fed → ETF outflows → Loss of momentum → Deep Correction 1. After the ATH, profit-taking accelerated Just like in 2011, silver rallied for years on inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of a structural supply deficit But after the peak, the momentum started to fade 2. The Fed is once again the main source of pressure Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and expectations of tighter monetary policy are strengthening the dollar and pushing real yields higher - a bearish scenario for silver With money rotating from commodities into equities as the U.S. economy stays resilient, silver tends to underperform gold 3. Safe-haven demand is fading If tensions around Iran, the Middle East, or other geopolitical conflicts continue to ease, the safe-haven premium will keep shrinking Money will start flowing back into risk assets again 4. ETF outflows and speculative positions are unwinding During the 2026 correction, silver ETF saw noticeable outflows as investors reduced exposure and risk appetite faded Historically a sign of changing market sentiment 5. Margin requirements and leverage Back in 2011, CME margin hikes were one of the main catalysts behind the crash Today's market once again looks dominated by speculation after a parabolic rally 6. Fundamentally, silver is stronger than in 2011 due to a structural supply deficit and rising industrial demand However, the speculative and investment side of the market is behaving almost the same way it did in 2011 And unlike gold, silver doesn't benefit much from central bank buying, since central banks mainly accumulate gold, not silver If the 2011-2013 analogy keeps playing out: The current decline may not be the end of the correction A move down to the $50-55 range is possible, and in a more bearish scenario, silver could even fall toward $40+ over the next 6-18 months before industrial demand and supply deficits take control again I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni170,045 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
SOL IS COOKING SOMETHING 60 → 85 → 57 (next) → 72 → 51 Nobody is ready for this, but someone is quietly accumulating Every July during the bear market has come with a rally But that's about to end It'll be time for the cycle bottom to form Don't try to catch the bottom in Solana or Bitcoin Set your DCA buy targets and be smarter than the crowd I told you about this before
Leni105,593 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 WARNING: THE SPACEX IPO IS THE BIGGEST TRAP OF 2026 Read this post carefully before buying SpaceX shares In 4 days, $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq The biggest IPO in history, with a valuation of around $1.8 trillion You may have noticed that demand has already exceeded $150 billion, while the public float is only 4-5% And I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the stock could easily jump 20-50% in the first days or weeks purely because of FOMO and the limited share supply But after that, the picture could change dramatically! 1. SpaceX didn't use the standard 180-day lock-up Instead, the S-1 includes a phased unlock schedule Insiders, employees, and early investors will be able to sell shares in stages starting in August: - August 21 (70 days) - +7% - September 10 (90 days) - +7% - September 25 (105 days) - +7% - October 10 (120 days) - +7% - October 25 (135 days) - +7% 2. On top of that, they removed the profitability requirement and are adding SpaceX to major indexes just 5 days after the IPO, while the usual waiting period is 90 days That forces 401(k) pension funds and passive index funds to buy SpaceX shares at inflated IPO prices and keep holding them throughout any decline 3. On top of that, there are major share releases after the Q2 earnings report (August) and Q3 earnings report (November) If the stock is trading 30% above the IPO price after Q2, a performance bonus will kick in and another +10% will be unlocked This staggered selling structure reduces the chance of one massive crash, but it creates several waves of selling pressure between August and November For comparison: when Meta went public in 2012 (one of the top 3 largest IPO in U.S. history, with a $104 billion valuation) The stock fell more than 60% within a few months after the IPO due to lock-up expirations and market concerns about its ability to monetize its business And there's one very important thing you need to remember! 4. The company is still unprofitable, posting roughly a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 Passive funds (Nasdaq-100) will become forced buyers, but at the first sign of bad news they'll become forced sellers That's why I'm warning you not to become exit liquidity for insiders and VCs who have already made huge money from private funding rounds In the short term, the IPO looks very attractive for traders who know how to speculate But if you're planning to hold, you need to clearly understand this: August through November could bring serious volatility and a major correction I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni202,426 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
ETHEREUM IS FORMING A BULL TRAP 2,450 → 1,500 → 1,900 (next) → 1,500 → 1,300 Bottoms don't form that fast, but they're trying to make you believe they do The trend is clearly bearish, and to break it ETH has to reclaim and hold above 2450 That's not gonna happen in the current market conditions Ethereum can't bottom before Bitcoin does I told you about this before
Leni98,184 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 SOMETHING BIG IS COMING Every Bitcoin bear cycle has left just 3 red candles on the 3-month chart 2018 → 3 red candles → bottom 2022 → 3 red candles → bottom 2025-2026 → 3 red candles (we're currently inside the 3rd one) Every cycle, most say this time is different and history won't repeat But that's how markets work The market is following the same rules once again And right now, we're sitting inside that 3rd red candle Do you realize what that means? We might be closer to the bottom than most people think Markets still follow the old rules I see a lot of people calling for a $30k bottom, but that feels almost impossible - the drop would be way too large Every cycle, the overall correction has become smaller and smaller That's why I don't think the bottom will be anywhere near $30k On top of that, there are barely any positive headlines right now, and this long bear market phase may finally be approaching its end The bottom will be found when most people are too scared to buy And years from now, everyone will call that moment obvious Even though it never was at the time I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni91,817 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Nobody is ready for a scenario like this But if Wyckoff were alive today, he'd be accumulating $BTC here That could happen under certain conditions: - The FED stops raising interest rates - No new wars or geopolitical conflicts - No major negative political news - Strong institutional and corporate demand - On-chain accumulation by whales and long-term holders - Favorable cycle positioning - Market cleansing and capitulation - Declining exchange reserves Only under these conditions would accumulation at this stage become possible Most people will only notice the setup after the move starts Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni87,009 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The top 10 stocks now make up around 40% of the S&P 500 AI-related stocks (direct AI + infrastructure) account for up to 50% The market has basically turned into one massive bet on artificial intelligence This is an overvalued AI bubble that's already inflating the entire market Big Tech - Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and others - has been pouring massive amounts of money into AI infrastructure throughout 2025-2026 For 2026, projected hyperscaler capex is around $560-725 billion, with some estimates as high as $800-900 billion That's comparable to the telecom boom of the late '90s The money is flowing into data centers, chips, and energy infrastructure But here's the problem - monetization is lagging way behind Many AI projects, including OpenAI, are still losing money Competition is growing with open-source models, while regulatory risks and energy constraints are also becoming bigger issues Investors are paying for a future trillion-dollar AI market that still isn't showing up in actual profits Stocks have been climbing on expectations, not current results On top of that, the Shiller CAPE Ratio is sitting around 41x To put that into perspective: That's one of the highest readings in history, getting close to the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble at 43x+ That's why I think the S&P 500 could eventually drop 20-30% or more, similar to what happened in 2000-2002, when the index lost nearly 50%, although today's market is more mature It's gonna be painful, there'll be a crash, and there'll be temporary damage But AI technology is real The models will keep getting better, computing will get cheaper, and adoption will continue to grow. The infrastructure being built today isn't going anywhere After crash, AI will keep transforming the economy on a much healthier and more sustainable foundation, without all the speculative excess I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni69,875 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce