Mario Nawfal
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Women take fighting way too seriously in Colombia 😬 Writer: Ian
Mario Nawfal4,224,953 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
🇸🇦🇮🇱🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia just asked ISRAEL for help against the Houthis, and that alone tells you everything about how much the Middle East has changed... MBS reached out to Israel through CENTCOM for intelligence and support to prevent the Houthis from blocking the Bab el-Mandeb. He also approached Egypt and other Gulf states. Which raises an obvious question about the Mecca defense pact... Larry Johnson put it best yesterday: "We don't cover preexisting conditions." On BRICS: Putin just announced it now accounts for 49% of global GDP and $1.3 trillion in domestic trade. India and Pakistan sat together at both the SCO and BRICS summits and jointly condemned what they diplomatically called "military unilateralism." The U.S. sent nobody to either meeting. On China: America stopped exporting chips, China built their own, and when the U.S. reversed course China told its companies to keep buying domestic ones instead. The same pattern is now playing out across the financial system. Fmr. Iran negotiator Alan Eyre recently said that a decade ago he had Russia, China, Europe and India all on the same side at the nuclear table. But those days are gone. That window has closed. The world is reorganizing faster than Washington is noticing, and America keeps sitting out the meetings where it's happening... Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal350,473 Aufrufe • vor 13 Stunden
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia built its east-west energy system for one nightmare scenario: Hormuz gets shut. Move the oil across the country to Yanbu and ship it through the Red Sea instead. Malcolm Nance argues the Houthis may have now broken that backup plan too. His assessment is that the Houthi advance through Mocha, Dahbub and onto Perim Island has given them physical control over the narrowest part of Bab el-Mandeb, where shipping passes close enough to shore that even relatively simple weapons become dangerous. And the collapse was startlingly fast. Nance says Saudi-backed forces that were supposed to number roughly 40,000 in the sector may in reality have had only a few thousand troops, with many positions abandoned as the Houthis advanced. “They dropped their stuff and they ran for their life.” The Houthis then seized weapons, bases, islands and the coastline leading directly to the strait. That leaves Riyadh with an ugly equation. Hormuz is constrained by Iran. The east-west pipeline has been attacked. And now the Red Sea outlet is threatened by a Houthi force that Nance believes Saudi Arabia cannot dislodge with airstrikes alone. “The Bab el-Mandab door has slammed shut.” Nance calls this an existential moment for Saudi Arabia. Either Riyadh accepts that the Houthis now control the chokepoint and cuts a deal, or it commits to a real ground war in Yemen, something the Saudis tried before with fairly miserable results. For decades, Saudi Arabia’s security model rested on one assumption: If things got bad enough, America would step in. This time, Trump said no. That may be the most important development of all. Malcolm Nance
Mario Nawfal258,355 Aufrufe • vor 9 Stunden
🇮🇱🇵🇸🇱🇧 I have been saying this for months and I will say it again: the Israeli government is making it harder and harder for anyone to defend them. 60% of aid blocked from reaching Gaza, settler attacks so extreme even Huckabee called them terrorism, and entire villages wiped out in Lebanon... I put ALL of it to former IDF spox Jonathan Conricus, and asked him one question: what are YOU critical of? He acknowledged things that surprised me: Settler violence in the West Bank is reprehensible, Israel has not indicted or convicted those who took the law into their own hands, and Israeli ministers need far more discipline about what they say publicly. On Lebanon: we found rare agreement, a civilian home with no tunnel, no weapons cache, no evidence of Hezbollah use, should NOT be demolished. Full stop. Where we could NOT agree: Gaza. People with no freedom, no airport, no ability to build a life, no ability to feed their children, will eventually fight back. That is not a justification. But it is the reality, and pretending otherwise helps nobody. I am genuinely trying to be objective here. And the more I learn, the harder that gets. I told him directly: I HOPE under Eisenkot we see a different Israel. He told me directly: do not expect Israel to go soft after October 7. We went a full hour and I still had more to say. This conversation needs to keep happening, even when it's uncomfortable, ESPECIALLY when it's uncomfortable. Thank you for having it, Jonathan Conricus
Mario Nawfal249,403 Aufrufe • vor 10 Stunden
🇺🇸🇮🇷 America is running out of interceptors, and Iran knows it. The big question in the Middle East is no longer whether U.S. air defenses work, but how long Washington can afford to keep using them like this. Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski says Washington is exposing a much deeper problem: America entered a prolonged missile war without the production capacity to sustain one. “We're running out of missiles.” And she sees no evidence that replacement rates are about to improve. That turns every successful interception into part of an attrition calculation. Iran doesn't necessarily have to defeat Patriot. It can force America to keep firing Patriot. Kwiatkowski argues the U.S. military spent decades fighting opponents unable to seriously contest American air and naval power. Iran is presenting a different problem: an adversary capable of fighting back, adapting and forcing Washington to consume finite inventories thousands of miles from home. The interceptors may be doing their job. The industrial base now has to do something considerably harder: Replace them faster than Iran can make America fire them. Brandon Weichert Karen Kwiatkowski
Mario Nawfal197,020 Aufrufe • vor 6 Stunden
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Apple barely had time to enjoy the foldable spotlight before Xiaomi showed up with its own answer. The Xiaomi 18 Fold launched in China two days before the iPhone Duo, with a 7.58-inch inner display, 6000 mAh battery, 67W wired charging, 50W wireless charging and a 200 MP Leica main camera. It also starts at roughly $1,640, compared with $1,999 for the iPhone Duo. Xiaomi is basically asking Apple: nice foldable, but where’s the battery? Writer: Sol
Mario Nawfal237,234 Aufrufe • vor 11 Stunden
🇺🇸🇮🇷 This war has been called many things. "Superpower suicide" might be the most accurate. Fmr. U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre gave one of the most sobering assessments of where this (broader) conflict is heading: The Houthis now control the Red Sea coastline, key islands in the Bab el-Mandeb, and Saudi pipelines, and that problem cannot be fixed from the air alone. On a U.S.-Iran deal: a diplomatic solution is possible, but only if the U.S. gets out of the way, lets China, the GCC, Pakistan, and Turkey lead, and limits its own role to nodding its head and agreeing to lift the blockade. On the BRICS and SCO summits: the U.S. sent nobody, and Eyre calls it diplomatic malpractice: "America First has become America alone." On China providing intelligence that killed 3 American soldiers: he doesn't think Trump will raise it seriously because a summit photo op matters more right now. "Our policy right now is driven by exasperation as opposed to contemplation." Superpowers do not operate on exasperation. Countries that have lost the plot do. Alan Eyre
Mario Nawfal215,559 Aufrufe • vor 11 Stunden
🇺🇸 Raymond Zucaro: The Fed may be powerless against the inflation shock that's coming. Oil is getting more expensive, yes. But this isn't the only issue. The real problem is that the machinery for moving energy around the world is starting to break. CIO Raymond Zucaro says WTI jumped roughly 10% in a week while the 10-year Treasury moved from 4.78% to 4.96%, with markets simultaneously pricing in another Fed hike. But raising rates doesn't reopen pipelines or shipping lanes. “This is a supply issue.” Hormuz is constrained. Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline has been knocked offline. Bab el-Mandeb is under pressure. And the consequences are beginning to appear in shipping costs. Zucaro says a shipping contact was recently quoted $36 million to move a VLCC carrying roughly one million barrels of crude from Basra to China. Before the conflict? About $3 million. That's roughly an 1,100% increase in transportation costs. Those costs don't stay politely inside the oil market. They move into diesel, trucking, aviation, food, manufacturing and eventually almost everything sitting on a supermarket shelf. Zucaro's concern is that the Fed may now respond to higher inflation by raising rates, squeezing mortgages, businesses and consumers without actually fixing the shortage causing the inflation. That's the trap. Higher energy costs squeeze the economy. Higher rates squeeze it again. And neither one produces another barrel of oil. Ray Zucaro Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal161,084 Aufrufe • vor 7 Stunden
🇵🇰 IF THE WORLD KEEPS TURNING A BLIND EYE, IMRAN KHAN MAY NO LONGER BE WITH US! They couldn't break Imran Khan, so now his family fears Pakistani authorities are planning something much worse His sister Aleema Khan has spent years fighting for a brother she is rarely allowed to see, and every time I speak to her, she is even more defiant In this conversation, Aleema describes what those months have looked like from the outside of a prison wall. Imran has been held in almost total isolation for nearly ten months, with only five visits from family or lawyers in that entire time. During that time he developed an eye infection. For two weeks he told prison authorities he could not see from one eye, and no medical help came. By the time a doctor examined him, the damage was irreversible. What frightens the family most is what Aleema believes is happening around him. Medical information about hypertension has been deliberately leaked, while images of an increasingly old and frail Imran have begun circulating. She believes a public image is being built, piece by piece, of a man whose health is naturally collapsing. That is why the family now takes one of Imran's own warnings seriously: that he could die in custody the way Mohamed Morsi died in Egypt. Aleema's argument is that Pakistan's establishment fears the millions of Pakistanis who still believe in what her brother represents far more than it fears the man himself. And if they can neither release him nor break him, his family is left asking the darkest question of all. What are they prepared to do with him? Aleema Khanum
Mario Nawfal479,689 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
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🇷🇺 A girl in Russia slams another girl’s head into a brick wall twice after her boyfriend left her for the other girl because he thought she was “prettier.” She grabs the girl and smashes her head into the wall twice. You hear the thud, she hits the back of her head and drops out cold while everyone just stands there filming. This isn’t some little fight. She could’ve cracked her skull. Stuff like this needs to actually get punished, not just filmed. Writer: Daniyal
Mario Nawfal3,137,875 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia is getting squeezed from both sides To Saudi Arabia's east, Iran has imposed its new order on the Strait of Hormuz. To its west, the Houthis are consolidating their position around Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint an Israeli official reportedly now considers an even more difficult problem than Hormuz because ships pass so close to Houthi-controlled territory. And the pressure is moving inland. After Saudi Arabia reportedly launched 129 airstrikes against Houthi positions over 48 hours, satellite imagery showed heavy damage at an Aramco facility in Abha, including at least six destroyed storage tanks. Saudi Arabia is now reportedly considering a major Yemen operation even without U.S. participation, after MBS asked Trump twice for American military help and was refused. Meanwhile, the east-west pipeline designed to bypass Hormuz has also been attacked. That leaves Riyadh staring at an ugly strategic map: Hormuz constrained by Iran. Bab el-Mandeb threatened by the Houthis. The east-west escape route under attack. And the Pakistani-led defense arrangements Saudi Arabia hoped would provide another layer of protection have so far produced little more than political support. For years, Saudi Arabia's great advantage was having multiple ways to move its energy to the world. The war is systematically putting pressure on every one of them. Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal343,641 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
Joanna Wietrzyk had a full GI emergency mid-race at HYROX and just... kept going Pushed through multiple stations. Finished the whole thing. Organizers had to replace the CARPET. Her review afterward: "a win is a win”😂 Honestly, was it right for her to keep going like this or should she have stopped and cleaned herself up in consideration for the other competitors?
Mario Nawfal143,950 Aufrufe • vor 15 Stunden
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Iran isn’t interested in another deal. It’s waiting for America to honor the last one. Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will eventually force Iran back to the negotiating table. Prof. Mohammad Marandi thinks that fundamentally misunderstands Tehran’s position. Iran, he says, believes the negotiation is already over. Trump signed an agreement. Tehran now expects Washington to implement it, and until that happens, Marandi says there will be no new negotiations. “We have a deal. You signed that piece of paper. Whenever you implement the deal, then come talking.” That creates a dangerous problem. The U.S. is continuing its economic siege while Iran has explicitly warned that if Washington succeeds in seriously damaging its economy, Tehran will respond militarily. Iran cannot sanction American banks or shut down the U.S. economy, Marandi argues, so its response would be against U.S. economic assets, or assets it considers linked to Washington, across the region. Then America faces pressure to retaliate. And the cycle starts again. Marandi says a larger war in the coming weeks or months is now a serious possibility, whether triggered by Iranian retaliation, a desperate U.S. escalation, or another Israeli attack that pulls Washington back in. The two sides aren't negotiating toward the same finish line anymore. Washington is waiting for Iran to concede. Iran, meanwhile, is waiting for Washington to concede first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi
Mario Nawfal322,454 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia is pumping 66 percent less oil than a year ago, its bills are going unpaid, and Iran's inflation is at 120 percent and still nobody is breaking Two numbers frame the week for Steve Hanke. Saudi production was 3.2 million barrels a day in July, down two-thirds from a year earlier, and that was before drones hit the east-west pipeline in seven or eight places on Thursday. A friend doing business in the kingdom says invoices are now paid late. Riyadh has called the White House twice asking for American planes. Iranian inflation, which he measures daily, has climbed past 120 percent and the rial is making new lows. Yet on the question everyone asks, his answer is blunt: "they're delivering a lot more economic pain worldwide than they're taking" Add a tanker spill he puts at eight times the Exxon Valdez, and futures pricing a Fed hike next week at 90 percent, and the bill for this war keeps arriving at addresses far from Tehran. Steve Hanke
Mario Nawfal264,634 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Glenn Diesen: Iran may no longer let America decide when the war starts For months, the U.S. has held one enormous advantage over Iran: escalation control. Washington can attack, pause, move toward diplomacy, then potentially attack again when conditions are more favorable. Glenn Diesen thinks Tehran is increasingly determined to take that option away. “If the U.S. know they can just stop the fighting whenever they want, then why not try another attack here or there?” His argument is that Iran may now move toward something considerably more dangerous: striking first when it sees preparations for another major U.S. or Israeli attack. Refueling aircraft assembling. Runways becoming active. Forces moving into position. “There's no reason to wait.” Diesen argues Tehran may not even consider such action a preemptive strike because, from its perspective, the war never actually ended. That may also explain the increasingly aggressive behavior around American warships. Diesen believes Iran may previously have avoided hitting them not because it lacked the capability, but because killing large numbers of U.S. sailors would force Washington dramatically higher up the escalation ladder. Now, he says, Tehran appears to be signaling that restraint may have limits. The strategic shift is subtle but potentially enormous: Iran isn't merely trying to deter the next American attack. It's trying to deny Washington the ability to choose when it happens. Glenn Diesen
Mario Nawfal295,795 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇾🇪🇸🇦 The Yemeni Air Force just flew combat missions for the first time since 2015, and it still might not be enough. Ex-U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance breaks down why 45 Saudi airstrikes, drones, and a coordinated ground offensive still leave the Houthis standing. "We have a horrible track record of fighting people and winning against people who wear flip flops." Underestimating the enemy has never ended well. It's not starting now. Malcolm Nance
Mario Nawfal68,549 Aufrufe • vor 3 Stunden
🇸🇦 A ground invasion of Saudi Arabia is now on the table, and Riyadh is scrambling to rally troops because it knows it. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert breaks down why Mohammed bin Salman hasn't just cut a deal, and why the longer he waits, the worse it gets. "𝘐𝘵 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘧𝘢𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘰𝘩𝘢𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘪𝘯 𝘚𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘢𝘯." If Saudi oil production doesn't recover in four weeks, the entire world feels it. Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal78,113 Aufrufe • vor 5 Stunden
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Americans have been telling pollsters this feels like a recession for a full year, and oil demand is now falling at a pace seen only three times in sixty years Jeff Snider brought one chart. The University of Michigan asks people whether they expect unemployment to rise, and that line has sat at the bottom of every past recession for a year now, since before the war began. The New York Fed's version just hit its worst reading since 2020. The numbers are catching up to the mood. The IEA expects oil demand to drop 2.5 million barrels a day this year, and Americans are already using three to four percent less fuel than last year. Kroger says fewer shoppers, spending less. Iran understands this better than anyone, which is why the Houthis choked the second strait once the world learned to route around the first: "the IRGC is in a war of survival" Both sides are in it to the end. Neither blinks. Gas stays near $5 through Christmas even if the war stopped tonight. Jeffrey P. Snider Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal227,537 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag