Mario Nawfal
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🇸🇦 A burning Aramco facility may be why the bombing stopped last night For the first time in thirteen days, no strikes. Reuters reports Trump ordered the military to hold off, contingency plans for major operations still sitting ready. It landed while Oman was in Tehran talking about reopening Hormuz, with regional sources describing real progress and something possibly reachable this weekend. Brandon Weichert doesn't credit diplomacy. He credits the Houthis. This war runs on markets, in his read, and the Red Sea route was the workaround keeping Saudi and much of the region's energy moving while Hormuz stayed choked. Watch that route start burning and the arithmetic changes overnight. His conclusion: Riyadh picked up the phone and told Washington not to do it. He doesn't think an off-ramp ends anything either. A cooling period, then a new round, with September surfacing again and again in his conversations because of the midterms and the weather. On Pickax Mountain we landed in the same place. If it isn't operational and can't meaningfully be cracked, striking it is theatre, a light show that lets Washington declare the nuclear problem solved and go home. That's the optimistic scenario now. The creative exit we both reached for: the Malacca model, competing Omani and Iranian routes with fees. Close to what Iran floated on day one. Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal298,238 次观看 • 7 小时前
🚨🇮🇷 🇺🇸 The Pentagon's halt in bombing Iran looks like a stand-down before the biggest strike of the war... For the first time in two weeks, Malcolm Nance's war notes came back almost empty. No American strikes, no Iranian strikes, pages of blank. Twenty years in naval intelligence taught him what that emptiness means, and his reaction ran three words: "HERE IT COMES." A day without sorties is a pre-mission stand-down. Every strike aircraft goes into maintenance at once, crews count bomb inventories in the magazines, planners build the packages, and carriers prepare to launch everything simultaneously. That rhythm is reportedly running from Kuwait and Israel to Jordan, England and the B-2 base in Missouri, warning orders already out to theater commanders. His window: 24 to 48 hours from the order. The tells are countable. Seven aerial tankers over the Gulf reads as small shaping. The real push looks like 20 or 30 stacked over Jordan, Kuwait, southern Iraq and Saudi Arabia, cruise missiles first, B-2s leading, six or seven flights of B-1s out of England behind them. Then it is DAY ONE of the war all over again. Malcolm Nance
Mario Nawfal260,136 次观看 • 5 小时前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The massive strike on Iran vanished from Trump's plans this weekend, and we break down the missile math that may explain why... For the second consecutive night, the witching hour came and went with no bombers in the air. Then the New York Times dropped a new report: Trump has, for now, shelved plans to significantly escalate, with administration officials naming dwindling interceptor stocks first among the reasons, ahead of wider-war risk, strikes on Gulf allies, and the economic and refugee fallout. Few in his inner circle back escalation at all, doubting more bombs move Tehran anywhere except closer together. Larry Johnson, thirty years across CIA and State, sees the same answer written in the machinery. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs privately cautioned that resuming major combat is doable but would dangerously deplete the interceptors defending every American base in the region. And the air-war planning channel that would build such a campaign sits dark this weekend, its planners not spun up, which no real strike order would allow. The inventory numbers underneath are the story. Official claims put interceptor stocks near a thousand. Larry's estimate: "probably fewer than 200." One honest caveat rides along, since some 90 US refueling aircraft are reportedly parked at Israeli fields, and a shelf can double as a lull. Wars end when the will breaks or the magazine empties. Washington is discovering which comes first. SonofNewAmericanRevolution
Mario Nawfal219,136 次观看 • 4 小时前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. hasn't run out of bombs to drop on Iran. It's run out of targets worth dropping them on. Colonel Mark Cancian, retired Marine and CSIS analyst, broke down why nightly strikes have dropped from roughly 350 targets a day in the war's opening phase to 80-100 now. Munitions aren't the bottleneck yet. Target identification is. Verifying and planning a strike takes time, and doing it every 24 hours caps how many you can hit. "Both sides are engaged in what you might call economic attrition... on several levels, this is a battle of endurance." Cancian says that endurance contest normally favors Iran. No midterms, no domestic political clock, and a regime that already crushed an uprising in January On the loudest rumor circulating, a strike on Pickax Mountain, he's blunt: even the GBU-57 can't reach a facility buried that deep, and a tactical nuke would cross a threshold for a target that isn't even the last one that matters. Neither side is winning this war, and neither can afford to stop fighting.
Mario Nawfal265,688 次观看 • 9 小时前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump wants Iran to hand him an exit. Fmr Trump Lawyer Robert Barnes says the intel community just told him, in writing, that Iran isn't giving him one. He laid out what leaked out of the Washington Post this week: every round of strikes has hardened Iran's position rather than softened it. Trump saw it happen in real time too, rejecting three separate ceasefire attempts run through Pakistan, Qatar, and finally Iraq's prime minister. Barnes expects a 75% chance Trump hits Pickax Mountain this weekend, a strike that likely won't destroy the facility but gives him something to declare victory over. Rebuild the narrative, claim the nuclear threat is gone, quietly lift the blockade, and let Fox News run with it while his base, already exhausted by this war, doesn't push back. If the plan is a symbolic strike dressed as a win, does anyone still watching get fooled, or does everyone already know the difference? Robert Barnes
Mario Nawfal279,212 次观看 • 11 小时前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Gulf Arab states didn't ask for this war. Ryan Bohl says most of them saw it coming and just braced for the fallout. Bohl, geopolitical analyst, framed the conflict as a structural stalemate. The U.S. holds military and economic superiority, but faces a political clock ticking toward the midterms. Iran survived an internal uprising and doesn't face elections, but is running out of runway on its economy. Neither side has the ingredients for a decisive win. That's what keeps this going. "There is an option, but it's almost off the table in terms of our cone of possibilities. It seems politically impossible that Congress would greenlight such a campaign going forward." He predicts an extended conflict, off and on, likely running through the winter and into next spring. Trump gets short bursts of ceasefire headlines for the market reaction, then the shooting resumes because nobody will move on who controls Hormuz. Neither side is winning this war. They're just outlasting each other. Ryan Bohl
Mario Nawfal251,885 次观看 • 10 小时前
🇵🇰 The BLA says it blew up a Pakistani army patrol in Bolan with an IED The Baloch Liberation Army, the separatist group that's been fighting the state out in Balochistan, says its guys ambushed the patrol with a roadside bomb in Bolan district in the province's east and took out at least 12 soldiers. That number's just the BLA talking for now. And it lines up with how the month's gone. July's been brutal for the army in Balochistan, one early wave of attacks alone left 42 people dead across the province, 18 police and 11 soldiers among them. Source: Tabz / Writer: Daniyal
Mario Nawfal226,598 次观看 • 11 小时前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. could be hitting Iran 400 TIMES A DAY by the middle of next week... Admiral Mark Montgomery, one of the few retired flag officers who speaks on the record while colleagues hide behind "unnamed official," expects that tempo within days, matching the peak of the March war. The buildup spells it out: the largest C-17 and C-5 transport surge from Europe since March, fresh fighter squadrons, electronic warfare aircraft, and above all the bombers, because a single B-1 delivers the precision payload of eight to ten fighters. Together it hands Trump war-peak firepower with no need for Israel at all. Pickaxe Mountain is on the target list, and the Admiral drew the limits exactly. The weapon a B-1 would drop there is large but no bunker buster. A raid can seal doors and wreck entrances; whatever sits deep inside survives. What troubles him lives beneath the tempo. Offensive missiles are entering a cheap 3D-printed era at a tenth the old price, while every defensive interceptor still costs $4 to $10 MILLION a shot, and those are exactly the rounds draining fastest. "We're not ready for this war," he said of the defenses America skipped for twenty years. Mark Montgomery
Mario Nawfal380,987 次观看 • 1 天前
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Somebody inside that tunnel is keeping a tally of American bombs on the wall. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance says the strikes on the Jask complex are just shaking rocks, and he knows exactly what's happening inside because he played the same game under Russian bombardment in eastern Ukraine. Mark the wall, laugh, wait: "They were just in there frying up bread, drinking tea and having dates, waiting for the entrance to open." He briefed commanders who insisted the Iranians can't take this. They can take it, he kept telling them. And when the entrance reopens, the anti-ship missiles come out. Malcolm Nance
Mario Nawfal315,996 次观看 • 1 天前
🇧🇭 🇮🇷 The mystery strike nobody could pin down finally has names: Bahrain and Kuwait, with UAE cover. It may explain the whole shape of this war... That's the Wall Street Journal's reporting, and Larry Johnson needed one line to make it land: which may be why Iran keeps pounding Kuwait and Bahrain day after day. If it holds, the map rearranges. The two Gulf states taking the heaviest retaliation, the ones whose desalination plants and power stations have been hit, aren't being punished for hosting American aircraft. They pulled a trigger. His verdict on that choice: it may have been a poor one. The forward-looking thread is a London meeting Axios reports for next week, where Washington and London try to assemble a coalition to protect Hormuz shipping. The Europeans reportedly set one condition, stop the shooting first, because nobody sends minesweepers into a live fight. Larry waved the whole thing off, and his reasoning is the war in miniature: the US won't pay the military price freedom of navigation would actually cost, so the only road there runs through negotiating with Iran, which Washington keeps refusing. He also flagged a sharpened US embassy alert for Israel, an Italian carrier suspending Tel Aviv flights, and satellite imagery showing roughly twenty American aircraft now parked on an Israeli base. His sharpest line was the caveat that undercuts every optimist: Iran can absolutely manage one day of March-level intensity. It just can't sustain it. SonofNewAmericanRevolution
Mario Nawfal329,739 次观看 • 1 天前
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is rebuilding faster than America can bomb it... Malcolm Nance has been under bombardment himself, in eastern Ukraine, where his unit stayed sane by tallying Russian impacts and laughing between them. He is certain the same scene is running inside Iran's mountain tunnels right now: a tally scratched on a wall, tea brewing, men waiting for the doors to be dug back open. The Wall Street Journal all but confirmed it. Satellite imagery shows Iran rapidly rebuilding what months of strikes destroyed, missile bases, bridges, ports. No mystery, just arithmetic: a country of 93 million clears rubble with shovels and excavators, while Washington would bid a quarter billion dollar contract for the same job. That arithmetic also breaks the escalation talk. A number making the rounds promises 400 strikes a day. Desert Storm needed six carriers and every Saudi airbase for that tempo; today three carriers are available, the Gulf bases sit abandoned, and quite possibly HALF of America's global precision missile inventory is already gone, missiles designed for Chinese and Russian defenses. Iran takes three and a half hours to cross by jet, and his warning was BLUNT: "You're going to start bombing rubble to bomb rubble." This war is being measured in sorties. The country underneath it is measured in shovels, and the shovels are winning. Malcolm Nance
Mario Nawfal316,297 次观看 • 1 天前
🚨🇮🇱🇵🇸 WATCH: The moment a Palestinian took the gun from an Israeli security coordinator and opened fire, near the West Bank village of Tell. One Israeli was shot dead, and at least two others were injured by the gunfire of the Palestinian who snatched the weapon. Israeli soldiers “eliminated the terrorist who carried out the attack and injured several Israeli civilians.” Source: Times of Israel, bintjbeilnews / Writer: Michael
Mario Nawfal464,872 次观看 • 1 天前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest lie in global energy markets may be starting to fall apart. For months, we've been told the oil market is under control, but economist Philip Pilkington says that's becoming impossible to sustain. His argument isn't simply that oil prices have been manipulated; it's that the entire strategy is beginning to collide with physical reality. Philip believes officials have been able to suppress futures prices through a combination of AI-driven trading, carefully crafted political messaging, and massive short positions entering the market at key moments. The result? A paper market that looks far calmer than the physical energy market underneath it. But futures contracts don't put diesel into trucks, and optimistic headlines don't refill storage tanks. According to Philip, that's where the strategy is starting to unravel. China is returning to global oil markets, refining margins remain unusually high, physical fuel markets are tightening, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to shrink. Every additional disruption puts more pressure on a system that's already running with far less room for error than it had a few months ago. Philip believes the Trump administration had a plan to carry the energy market safely through the midterms. It relied on temporary diplomacy with Iran, lower Chinese demand and continued releases from America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then Trump tore up the MOU, China started buying more oil again, and the assumptions behind the entire strategy began to fall apart. Philip Pilkington
Mario Nawfal353,495 次观看 • 1 天前
🇹🇭 An 11-year-old in northeastern Thailand drove his parents' pickup truck into a single line procession of monks, killing 8 and seriously injuring 10 more today. It's not yet clear what led up to this horrendous tragedy. May they rest in the peace they already found. Writer: Mhedi
Mario Nawfal10,776,008 次观看 • 23 天前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump remains trapped because he still refuses to accept how much leverage Iran possesses. He still thinks overwhelming American power will eventually force Tehran to give in, and political scientist Ian Bremmer says that's the mistake keeping this war alive. Instead, Iran has shown it can keep raising the economic cost of the war without crossing Trump's red lines. Ian doesn't think Iran believes it can defeat the U.S militarily; it believes it can make continuing the war more painful than ending it. And so far, it's working. Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, eliminate its leadership and dramatically escalate the conflict. But Ian points to something more revealing than Trump's rhetoric: His actions. Despite months of fighting, Trump has avoided the biggest escalations. No ground invasion, no sustained campaign against Iran's energy sector, and no full-scale assault on the country's leadership. Even after American casualties, his instinct has repeatedly been to play them down rather than use them to justify a much wider war. And Tehran has noticed. It increasingly sees a president who talks like he's preparing for total war but behaves like someone searching for an exit. The bigger problem, Ian says, is inside the White House itself. Trump's advisers know the military and economic costs are mounting, and many want the war to end, but very few are willing to tell Trump the uncomfortable truth: Iran has far more leverage over how this ends than Washington expected. Until Trump accepts that reality, Ian believes a genuine compromise remains unlikely. ian bremmer
Mario Nawfal353,956 次观看 • 1 天前
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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 A $2 billion radar was wiped out by two $20,000 drones. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance walks through the systematic blinding: the Qatari radar controlling the entire Gulf's airspace, gone. THAAD radars hit in the UAE and Jordan. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, the base Nance lived on, abandoned and run by telemetry from Norfolk while Iranian drones level it almost symbolically: "The Iranians have put us technically out of the theater." Patrols now fly five hours from Sicily. CENTCOM will likely move to Israel. And his starkest prediction: "Mark my words, the US will leave Kuwait." Malcolm Nance
Mario Nawfal222,763 次观看 • 1 天前
🇨🇳🇮🇷 China is laying railroads that could make the Strait of Hormuz worthless, and America is bombing the tracks that run through Iran Col. Larry Wilkerson, Colin Powell's former chief of staff, keeps pointing at a map almost nobody in Washington bothers to look at. China now runs seven or eight rail lines from its Pacific ports into the heart of Europe, two of them cutting straight across Iran. Cargo that once had to squeeze through Hormuz can ride the tracks instead. Those corridors, by his count, are the ONLY genuinely strategic target America has bombed inside Iran this entire war. Follow that thread and the chokepoints start losing their bite. Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb, even Suez matter a little less every year the trains keep moving, and no navy on earth can blockade freight that never touches water. His verdict on the whole contest: sea power fading, land power rising, both sides holding nuclear weapons for the first time in history.
Mario Nawfal455,428 次观看 • 2 天前