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Mike Masco

@MikeMasco • 20,328 subscribers

Senior Meteorologist PIX 11 Morning News 7AM -10AM WATCH MY DAILY PIX11+ FORECAST HERE: https://t.co/HfgRDTOFsb @PIX11NEWS @NEWSNATION

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🌧️WETTEST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN 78 YEARS? I did a ton of look back this morning and when you look at the ENTIRE holiday weekend as a whole, this could end up being the wettest Memorial Day Weekend since 1948. 🌧️ On May 30, 1948, Central Park recorded 2.49” of rain followed by another .06” on Memorial Day itself. If NYC officially tops 2.75”+ of rain this weekend, it would rank as the wettest #MDW on record. PIX11 News

🌧️WETTEST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN 78 YEARS? I did a ton of look back this morning and when you look at the ENTIRE holiday weekend as a whole, this could end up being the wettest Memorial Day Weekend since 1948. 🌧️ On May 30, 1948, Central Park recorded 2.49” of rain followed by another .06” on Memorial Day itself. If NYC officially tops 2.75”+ of rain this weekend, it would rank as the wettest #MDW on record. PIX11 News

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"IT" HAS THAT LOOK!!!! Simulation satellite shows the PERFECT phase of this storm later today. A total occluded eye structure vertically stacked will support one HELL of a snow band ripping snow at 4-5" per hour for hours. If this band is fully into NYC we are going to 18+ inches pushing us into TOP 10 snowstorms in NYC history! on PIX11 News NOW with more

"IT" HAS THAT LOOK!!!! Simulation satellite shows the PERFECT phase of this storm later today. A total occluded eye structure vertically stacked will support one HELL of a snow band ripping snow at 4-5" per hour for hours. If this band is fully into NYC we are going to 18+ inches pushing us into TOP 10 snowstorms in NYC history! on PIX11 News NOW with more

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⭐️❄️ 1ST CALL SNOW MAP ❄️⭐️ I’m comfortable enough now to put real numbers on a forecast map — not raw model output, but a forecast built from actual meteorological reasoning. This forecast is based on: • Snow ratios • Lower DGZ placement • Front-end focused snowfall • Dry dew points early • Mixing potential near 800 mb (~6,000 ft) as coastal redevelopment occurs 🩶 ZONE 1: 4–6" Lower Manhattan • Long Island • NJ Coast • Philadelphia The front end of this storm should deliver 4–6" of snow, with locally higher amounts, before a transition to sleet and possibly freezing rain. ⚠️ I do NOT see this turning into “just rain.” Ground temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s — meaning freezing rain is a legitimate concern and should not be ignored. 🟦 ZONE 2: 6–10" Interior North/Central NJ • North Shore LI • Upper Boroughs • Lower Westchester • Lower Fairfield CT Soundings support some sleet here, but also a longer-duration front-end snowfall. This is a challenging transition zone — and there is still a realistic scenario where no meaningful changeover occurs due to strong dynamics. ➡️ Higher-end totals are very much on the table. 🟪 ZONE 3: 10–15" NW NJ • Poconos • Lower Hudson Valley • Central CT This area benefits from very high snow ratios for nearly 90% of the storm before eventually shifting to wetter snow. I am very confident that areas in purple do not switch to sleet or freezing rain. This is the jackpot zone. 📌 SIDE THOUGHTS This is my First Call. Adjustments will be made. Forecasting for more than 7+ million homes is never perfect — especially in a setup with this many microclimates and boundary-layer challenges. But this is the best possible forecast with the data we have right now. More updates coming. Stay tuned ON tv UNTIL 10AM PIX11 News ❄️📺

⭐️❄️ 1ST CALL SNOW MAP ❄️⭐️ I’m comfortable enough now to put real numbers on a forecast map — not raw model output, but a forecast built from actual meteorological reasoning. This forecast is based on: • Snow ratios • Lower DGZ placement • Front-end focused snowfall • Dry dew points early • Mixing potential near 800 mb (~6,000 ft) as coastal redevelopment occurs 🩶 ZONE 1: 4–6" Lower Manhattan • Long Island • NJ Coast • Philadelphia The front end of this storm should deliver 4–6" of snow, with locally higher amounts, before a transition to sleet and possibly freezing rain. ⚠️ I do NOT see this turning into “just rain.” Ground temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s — meaning freezing rain is a legitimate concern and should not be ignored. 🟦 ZONE 2: 6–10" Interior North/Central NJ • North Shore LI • Upper Boroughs • Lower Westchester • Lower Fairfield CT Soundings support some sleet here, but also a longer-duration front-end snowfall. This is a challenging transition zone — and there is still a realistic scenario where no meaningful changeover occurs due to strong dynamics. ➡️ Higher-end totals are very much on the table. 🟪 ZONE 3: 10–15" NW NJ • Poconos • Lower Hudson Valley • Central CT This area benefits from very high snow ratios for nearly 90% of the storm before eventually shifting to wetter snow. I am very confident that areas in purple do not switch to sleet or freezing rain. This is the jackpot zone. 📌 SIDE THOUGHTS This is my First Call. Adjustments will be made. Forecasting for more than 7+ million homes is never perfect — especially in a setup with this many microclimates and boundary-layer challenges. But this is the best possible forecast with the data we have right now. More updates coming. Stay tuned ON tv UNTIL 10AM PIX11 News ❄️📺

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**WINTER STORM WATCH** TUESDAY'S SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE 1ST WINTER STORM OF THE YEAR WHAT TO EXPECT (BY ZONE) 🟢ZONE 1 – Heavy Rain (Central NJ, NYC, Long Island) This region remains solidly in the warm sector, meaning no meaningful snow accumulation. 🔴ZONE 2 – Mix of Snow, Sleet & Rain (Interior NJ, Southern Westchester, Southern CT, Lower Hudson Valley) This transitional zone holds onto snow the longest before eventually flipping to sleet and rain. These areas will likely see: A slushy early accumulation of 1–3 inches of wet snow Highest totals in elevated terrain north of I-95 and north of the Tappan Zee Bridge ❄️ZONE 3 – Heavy Wet Snow (Northwest NJ, Lower Hudson Valley North of I-84, Central CT) This is where the heaviest and most persistent snow occurs. A strong band of lift will develop Tuesday morning into early afternoon, creating snowfall rates capable of outpacing marginal surface temperatures. Expected totals: 3–6 inches of heavy, wet snow Isolated pockets of 6” possible above 600 feet 🌨️ZONE 4 – Jackpot Zone: Highest Elevations North of I-84. This zone includes the highest terrain of the Catskills and interior Connecticut/New York. These areas sit firmly in the cold sector for most of the event, allowing for the most efficient accumulation. Key locations: Monticello Poughkeepsie Walden Redding, CT Northern and high-elevation CT communities Snow totals: 6 inches+ possible FULL BREAKDOWN: ***MORE ON PIX11 News AT 10PM***

WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY'S SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE 1ST WINTER STORM OF THE YEAR WHAT TO EXPECT (BY ZONE) 🟢ZONE 1 – Heavy Rain (Central NJ, NYC, Long Island) This region remains solidly in the warm sector, meaning no meaningful snow accumulation. 🔴ZONE 2 – Mix of Snow, Sleet & Rain (Interior NJ, Southern Westchester, Southern CT, Lower Hudson Valley) This transitional zone holds onto snow the longest before eventually flipping to sleet and rain. These areas will likely see: A slushy early accumulation of 1–3 inches of wet snow Highest totals in elevated terrain north of I-95 and north of the Tappan Zee Bridge ❄️ZONE 3 – Heavy Wet Snow (Northwest NJ, Lower Hudson Valley North of I-84, Central CT) This is where the heaviest and most persistent snow occurs. A strong band of lift will develop Tuesday morning into early afternoon, creating snowfall rates capable of outpacing marginal surface temperatures. Expected totals: 3–6 inches of heavy, wet snow Isolated pockets of 6” possible above 600 feet 🌨️ZONE 4 – Jackpot Zone: Highest Elevations North of I-84. This zone includes the highest terrain of the Catskills and interior Connecticut/New York. These areas sit firmly in the cold sector for most of the event, allowing for the most efficient accumulation. Key locations: Monticello Poughkeepsie Walden Redding, CT Northern and high-elevation CT communities Snow totals: 6 inches+ possible FULL BREAKDOWN: MORE ON PIX11 News AT 10PM

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SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT ******1ST CALL MAP****** 🎄 Merry Christmas to YOU!!! A pretty sizable snowstorm is expected across the region Friday night, with snow developing as early as Friday evening. I am very confident in a widespread 6–10" snowfall for a large portion of the Tri-State area, with lower confidence closer to NYC, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore where mixing remains a concern. At this time, I am keeping some mixing in play in central NJ/Long Island, but I’m not totally sold on how aggressive it becomes. While 4–6" looks like a very solid floor, several areas could easily boom to 6"+ if colder air locks in faster and holds longer than currently modeled. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. I could easily pull this zone into NYC and Nassau County as we see more model data. ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates, keeping this mostly snow and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) and into Suffolk County, which would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts. 📺 On TV now with the latest on PIX11 News

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT 1ST CALL MAP 🎄 Merry Christmas to YOU!!! A pretty sizable snowstorm is expected across the region Friday night, with snow developing as early as Friday evening. I am very confident in a widespread 6–10" snowfall for a large portion of the Tri-State area, with lower confidence closer to NYC, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore where mixing remains a concern. At this time, I am keeping some mixing in play in central NJ/Long Island, but I’m not totally sold on how aggressive it becomes. While 4–6" looks like a very solid floor, several areas could easily boom to 6"+ if colder air locks in faster and holds longer than currently modeled. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. I could easily pull this zone into NYC and Nassau County as we see more model data. ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates, keeping this mostly snow and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) and into Suffolk County, which would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts. 📺 On TV now with the latest on PIX11 News

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❄️ 2ND CALL SNOW MAP UPDATE ❄️ A few key corrections south to account for slightly higher QPF in some model trends... I’ve made some adjustments to the snowfall map, shifting totals a bit farther south to better account for areas where the front end snowfall Sunday morning/afternoon will be higher due to increased moisture levels. This would still account for sleet and warm air intrusion around the 5,000-ft level which still may become an issue. That warm layer will cut into some late storm accumulations once the dry air is overcome. 🔹 Coastal Monmouth & Ocean Counties I now expect at least 6" in eastern Monmouth, with max potentials up to 10". This is the assumption of sleet mixing. 🔹 Long Island Included in the 6–10" range, with some mixing limiting higher totals in spots. 🔹 NYC & Northern Long Island The most common snowfall totals will be a 10–15" range which is not uniform across the entire area. Some locations will fall short due to brief mixing. 🔹 Snow Max Zone The highest potential remains over northern NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest CT, where: • Snow ratios will be higher • Frontogenesis banding is most likely • Lift will be strongest ➡️ Snowfall max potential: up to 18" in this corridor. Bottom line: This remains a high-impact winter storm. Small changes in the mid-level temperatures will make a big difference, especially near the coast. I’ll continue fine-tuning as we get closer. PIX11 News

❄️ 2ND CALL SNOW MAP UPDATE ❄️ A few key corrections south to account for slightly higher QPF in some model trends... I’ve made some adjustments to the snowfall map, shifting totals a bit farther south to better account for areas where the front end snowfall Sunday morning/afternoon will be higher due to increased moisture levels. This would still account for sleet and warm air intrusion around the 5,000-ft level which still may become an issue. That warm layer will cut into some late storm accumulations once the dry air is overcome. 🔹 Coastal Monmouth & Ocean Counties I now expect at least 6" in eastern Monmouth, with max potentials up to 10". This is the assumption of sleet mixing. 🔹 Long Island Included in the 6–10" range, with some mixing limiting higher totals in spots. 🔹 NYC & Northern Long Island The most common snowfall totals will be a 10–15" range which is not uniform across the entire area. Some locations will fall short due to brief mixing. 🔹 Snow Max Zone The highest potential remains over northern NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest CT, where: • Snow ratios will be higher • Frontogenesis banding is most likely • Lift will be strongest ➡️ Snowfall max potential: up to 18" in this corridor. Bottom line: This remains a high-impact winter storm. Small changes in the mid-level temperatures will make a big difference, especially near the coast. I’ll continue fine-tuning as we get closer. PIX11 News

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LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER ALERT DAY TODAY ⚠️⛈️ As expected, the SPC has placed most of the PIX11 News viewing area under a LEVEL 2 severe weather risk for damaging winds, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, torrential rainfall, and hail. The primary severe threat appears to be strong to damaging wind gusts and small hail, while the tornado threat remains low. A few storms could develop earlier this afternoon across the Lower Hudson Valley, NW New Jersey, Lehigh Valley, and the Poconos before a more organized line moves through late this evening. On PIX11 News at 9am with the latest timing and impacts.

LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER ALERT DAY TODAY ⚠️⛈️ As expected, the SPC has placed most of the PIX11 News viewing area under a LEVEL 2 severe weather risk for damaging winds, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, torrential rainfall, and hail. The primary severe threat appears to be strong to damaging wind gusts and small hail, while the tornado threat remains low. A few storms could develop earlier this afternoon across the Lower Hudson Valley, NW New Jersey, Lehigh Valley, and the Poconos before a more organized line moves through late this evening. On PIX11 News at 9am with the latest timing and impacts.

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MELISSA IS NOW SUB 900MB PRESSURE WITH WINDS AT 180MPH..This now makes #HurricaneMelissa the top strongest hurricane in modern history to make landfall putting it in a league with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and 1969 Hurricane Camille to list a couple. Satellite shows we are looking at a direct landfall around #BlackRiver in the next 2 hours. PIX11 News

MELISSA IS NOW SUB 900MB PRESSURE WITH WINDS AT 180MPH..This now makes #HurricaneMelissa the top strongest hurricane in modern history to make landfall putting it in a league with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and 1969 Hurricane Camille to list a couple. Satellite shows we are looking at a direct landfall around #BlackRiver in the next 2 hours. PIX11 News

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BREAKING... THIS MORNING'S JAPAN EARTHQUAKE REVISED TO A POWERFUL 7.7 MAGNITUDE QUAKE OFF JAPAN'S NORTHERN COASTLINE... A #TsunamiWarning remains as waves are expected to continue through the day with the potential for hitting 10' in some locations. Today's quake came just weeks after the 15th anniversary of the 2011 earthquake that killed 22,000 people. PIX11 News

BREAKING... THIS MORNING'S JAPAN EARTHQUAKE REVISED TO A POWERFUL 7.7 MAGNITUDE QUAKE OFF JAPAN'S NORTHERN COASTLINE... A #TsunamiWarning remains as waves are expected to continue through the day with the potential for hitting 10' in some locations. Today's quake came just weeks after the 15th anniversary of the 2011 earthquake that killed 22,000 people. PIX11 News

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SUNDAY SNOWFALL — 2ND CALL ❄️ This setup shares similarities with today’s event, where lift and timing matter more than storm track of the coastal. While the primary coastal low stays offshore, a secondary zone of strong dynamics along the leading edge of arctic air will be the driver for snowfall Sunday. That zone favors Long Island and central NJ Sunday afternoon into the evening, supporting a widespread 2–4” snowfall. The BOOM potential remains over LI if the trough axis can swing from neutral toward slightly negative tilt — a signal consistently shown by the AI guidance, which has been notably steady with this idea. In this scenario your moisture transport off the Atlantic Ocean can be enhanced causing more surprises. I am being cautious on that. ❄️ZONE 1 | NW NJ / Hudson Valley Snow arrives earlier here with colder air already in place. Snow ratios will be higher, allowing coating–2” in most spots. With the front nearby at onset, isolated 3” totals can’t be ruled out, especially near I-87 and areas just east. ❄️ZONE 2 | Interior NJ, NYC, SE NY, CT (away from the immediate coast) This is the core 2–4” zone. While that sounds modest, this is a dynamic-driven snow, meaning totals could fluctuate sharply over short distances. I believe most of NE NJ, NYC, SE NY, and much of CT reach at least 2”, with localized overachievers possible. ❄️ZONE 3 | Coastal NJ & Southern Long Island Mixing remains the wildcard here. Small temperature and wind shifts will have an outsized impact, making this zone highly volatile and lower confidence overall. ⚠️ BOOM POTENTIAL: ALL OF LONG ISLAND & SE CT If snow banding locks in Sunday evening, this area could see an extended period of steady snow. In a perfect scenario, 4–6” is achievable, but confidence in that outcome is still low. More on the PIX11 News at 10pm

SUNDAY SNOWFALL — 2ND CALL ❄️ This setup shares similarities with today’s event, where lift and timing matter more than storm track of the coastal. While the primary coastal low stays offshore, a secondary zone of strong dynamics along the leading edge of arctic air will be the driver for snowfall Sunday. That zone favors Long Island and central NJ Sunday afternoon into the evening, supporting a widespread 2–4” snowfall. The BOOM potential remains over LI if the trough axis can swing from neutral toward slightly negative tilt — a signal consistently shown by the AI guidance, which has been notably steady with this idea. In this scenario your moisture transport off the Atlantic Ocean can be enhanced causing more surprises. I am being cautious on that. ❄️ZONE 1 | NW NJ / Hudson Valley Snow arrives earlier here with colder air already in place. Snow ratios will be higher, allowing coating–2” in most spots. With the front nearby at onset, isolated 3” totals can’t be ruled out, especially near I-87 and areas just east. ❄️ZONE 2 | Interior NJ, NYC, SE NY, CT (away from the immediate coast) This is the core 2–4” zone. While that sounds modest, this is a dynamic-driven snow, meaning totals could fluctuate sharply over short distances. I believe most of NE NJ, NYC, SE NY, and much of CT reach at least 2”, with localized overachievers possible. ❄️ZONE 3 | Coastal NJ & Southern Long Island Mixing remains the wildcard here. Small temperature and wind shifts will have an outsized impact, making this zone highly volatile and lower confidence overall. ⚠️ BOOM POTENTIAL: ALL OF LONG ISLAND & SE CT If snow banding locks in Sunday evening, this area could see an extended period of steady snow. In a perfect scenario, 4–6” is achievable, but confidence in that outcome is still low. More on the PIX11 News at 10pm

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NEW VIDEO OF THE #JonesFire as of 7PM from Lacey Township NJ.. MASSIVE smoke cloud over south east NJ with ash falling for miles! The Fire has jumped the Garden State Parkway in NJ and has burned over 200 acres! This is an area under SEVERE drought conditions! #wildfire #NJ

NEW VIDEO OF THE #JonesFire as of 7PM from Lacey Township NJ.. MASSIVE smoke cloud over south east NJ with ash falling for miles! The Fire has jumped the Garden State Parkway in NJ and has burned over 200 acres! This is an area under SEVERE drought conditions! #wildfire #NJ

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🔥CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE RETURNS TO THE TRI-STATE THIS WEEK... 🌫️ A strengthening area of high pressure and a favorable jet stream pattern will pull wildfire smoke south into the Northeast by Thursday. Expect increasingly hazy skies, reduced air quality, and the smell of smoke to become noticeable—even across NYC. Combined with the building heat and humidity, it'll make for a very uncomfortable end to the week. I'll have the latest timing, air quality impacts, and heat this week at 7 AM on PIX11 News.

🔥CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE RETURNS TO THE TRI-STATE THIS WEEK... 🌫️ A strengthening area of high pressure and a favorable jet stream pattern will pull wildfire smoke south into the Northeast by Thursday. Expect increasingly hazy skies, reduced air quality, and the smell of smoke to become noticeable—even across NYC. Combined with the building heat and humidity, it'll make for a very uncomfortable end to the week. I'll have the latest timing, air quality impacts, and heat this week at 7 AM on PIX11 News.

412,264 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

‼️SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE TRI-STATE Here we go again! Another batch of strong and severe storms will target the region tomorrow. An active weather pattern is setting up for Tuesday as a cold front approaches and a warm, humid air mass surges into the area. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will fuel moderate to strong instability, while strong winds aloft will provide plenty of wind shear for organized severe thunderstorms. Main Takeaways:🌩️ A widespread severe weather threat is expected Tuesday into Tuesday evening. 💨 Damaging winds are the primary concern, with the potential for wind gusts over 65 mph. 🌪️ A few tornadoes are possible if discrete supercell thunderstorms develop (esp west of NYC) 🧊 Large hail is possible, but the threat appears more limited due to relatively warm air aloft. ⚡ Storms could evolve into a mix of supercells and bowing lines of thunderstorms, though the exact storm mode remains uncertain. See you from 7am- 10am on PIX11 News

‼️SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE TRI-STATE Here we go again! Another batch of strong and severe storms will target the region tomorrow. An active weather pattern is setting up for Tuesday as a cold front approaches and a warm, humid air mass surges into the area. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will fuel moderate to strong instability, while strong winds aloft will provide plenty of wind shear for organized severe thunderstorms. Main Takeaways:🌩️ A widespread severe weather threat is expected Tuesday into Tuesday evening. 💨 Damaging winds are the primary concern, with the potential for wind gusts over 65 mph. 🌪️ A few tornadoes are possible if discrete supercell thunderstorms develop (esp west of NYC) 🧊 Large hail is possible, but the threat appears more limited due to relatively warm air aloft. ⚡ Storms could evolve into a mix of supercells and bowing lines of thunderstorms, though the exact storm mode remains uncertain. See you from 7am- 10am on PIX11 News

124,973 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

***SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY*** 2ND CALL UPDATED MAP TO INCLUDE 10"+ TOTALS Merry Christmas everyone! I've had some time to review the new data and the storm is basically behaving just as I initially thought. There are a few revisions to my 1st call from yesterday morning to account for HIGHER SNOW RATIOS over NW NJ/Hudson Valley and to move the 6-10" zone into NYC. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. The pink area of 10"+ accounts for a MUCH higher snow ratio at the start and duration of the storm. This will allow for higher elevations to see many locations pick up 10"+ ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios at times, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. Everything south of 195 in NJ has a high chance to flip to heavy sleet and rain during convective bandings. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates a tad longer creating an over performer, keeping this mostly snow with sleet mixed in and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY 2ND CALL UPDATED MAP TO INCLUDE 10"+ TOTALS Merry Christmas everyone! I've had some time to review the new data and the storm is basically behaving just as I initially thought. There are a few revisions to my 1st call from yesterday morning to account for HIGHER SNOW RATIOS over NW NJ/Hudson Valley and to move the 6-10" zone into NYC. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. The pink area of 10"+ accounts for a MUCH higher snow ratio at the start and duration of the storm. This will allow for higher elevations to see many locations pick up 10"+ ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios at times, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. Everything south of 195 in NJ has a high chance to flip to heavy sleet and rain during convective bandings. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates a tad longer creating an over performer, keeping this mostly snow with sleet mixed in and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts.

934,180 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

⚠️AIR QUALITY TURNS UNHEALTHY ACROSS NEW YORK CITY A major surge of Canadian wildfire smoke is pouring into the Tri-State area, and AQI values could exceed 200 today, creating widespread hazy skies and unhealthy air quality. I'm already smelling the smoke this morning, a sign that it's reached ground level. That means reduced visibility, smoky conditions, and a noticeable impact on air quality throughout the day. Today will be the worst day. A north wind on Friday will begin pushing the smoke south, and showers and thunderstorms this weekend should help scrub some of the smoke from the atmosphere. If possible, limit prolonged outdoor activity today—especially if you have asthma, heart disease, or other respiratory conditions. See you at 7 am on PIX11 News with the latest updates.

⚠️AIR QUALITY TURNS UNHEALTHY ACROSS NEW YORK CITY A major surge of Canadian wildfire smoke is pouring into the Tri-State area, and AQI values could exceed 200 today, creating widespread hazy skies and unhealthy air quality. I'm already smelling the smoke this morning, a sign that it's reached ground level. That means reduced visibility, smoky conditions, and a noticeable impact on air quality throughout the day. Today will be the worst day. A north wind on Friday will begin pushing the smoke south, and showers and thunderstorms this weekend should help scrub some of the smoke from the atmosphere. If possible, limit prolonged outdoor activity today—especially if you have asthma, heart disease, or other respiratory conditions. See you at 7 am on PIX11 News with the latest updates.

41,875 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

EVENING WEATHER THOUGHTS AS I LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL DATA The trends have been to shift stuff north of #NYC which is a better case scenario minimizing urban flooding. But not so fast…. If we shift that north the damaging wind threat also goes north which would follow the warm front. Going to be an interesting PIX 11 MORNING SHOW at 7am PIX11 News

EVENING WEATHER THOUGHTS AS I LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL DATA The trends have been to shift stuff north of #NYC which is a better case scenario minimizing urban flooding. But not so fast…. If we shift that north the damaging wind threat also goes north which would follow the warm front. Going to be an interesting PIX 11 MORNING SHOW at 7am PIX11 News

23,753 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

💨SMOKE FILLED EAST RIVER Visibility is taking a major hit and it’s very challenging to see towards queens and Brooklyn from the manhattan side of the east river in NYC. AQI values exceeding unhealthy levels PIX11 News

💨SMOKE FILLED EAST RIVER Visibility is taking a major hit and it’s very challenging to see towards queens and Brooklyn from the manhattan side of the east river in NYC. AQI values exceeding unhealthy levels PIX11 News

16,773 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

BREAKING.. HURRICANE MELISSA ON FINAL APPROACH FOR LANDFALL #HurricaneMelissa is now STRONGER than Katrina and refuses to weaken / go through an eye wall replacement to help minimize some strength as it nears the west coast of #Jamaica. This will hit as the worst hurricane in Jamaica’s history.. Central Pressure is a jaw dropping 901mb with winds 175 and gusts into the 225+ range. All hell is about to break loose for much of the day. There is just no more to say… everything that is needed to be communicated has been. We pray and that’s just about all we can do. This will become a recovery and clean up effort in the next 24 hours once the waters recede. PIX11 News

BREAKING.. HURRICANE MELISSA ON FINAL APPROACH FOR LANDFALL #HurricaneMelissa is now STRONGER than Katrina and refuses to weaken / go through an eye wall replacement to help minimize some strength as it nears the west coast of #Jamaica. This will hit as the worst hurricane in Jamaica’s history.. Central Pressure is a jaw dropping 901mb with winds 175 and gusts into the 225+ range. All hell is about to break loose for much of the day. There is just no more to say… everything that is needed to be communicated has been. We pray and that’s just about all we can do. This will become a recovery and clean up effort in the next 24 hours once the waters recede. PIX11 News

270,041 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

1ST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEK… ❄️EARLY CALL ON PRECIP TYPE & IMPACTS I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving!! Tuesday continues to look interesting as the guidance slowly aligns. At this point, fleeting cold air on Tuesday will limit how much snow can actually accumulate — but several key questions with this system still remain. Here’s my early breakdown: 🟩 Zone 1 – ALL RAIN (Green Zone) Climatology + temperature profiles strongly favor a pure rain event for Coastal NJ and Long Island. 🩷 Zone 2 – SNOW ➜ MIX ➜ RAIN (Pink Zone) This will be the trickiest area. Some cold air will be available early, allowing wet snow to mix with rain going to pure rain. If the storm strengthens a bit more, dynamic cooling could support brief, very wet accumulations, especially N&W of NYC. ⬜ Zone 3 – Wet Snow / Mixing (White Zone) A quick thump of wet snow Tuesday with low snow ratios — making this a heavy, sloppy snow. General 3–4" expected, with isolated 4"+ possible in higher elevations along and north of I-80 and into the Hudson Valley. This is how I see things right now. I’ll break down more details on PIX11 News This Morning until 10am, and again on the 4/5/6/10pm newscasts.

1ST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEK… ❄️EARLY CALL ON PRECIP TYPE & IMPACTS I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving!! Tuesday continues to look interesting as the guidance slowly aligns. At this point, fleeting cold air on Tuesday will limit how much snow can actually accumulate — but several key questions with this system still remain. Here’s my early breakdown: 🟩 Zone 1 – ALL RAIN (Green Zone) Climatology + temperature profiles strongly favor a pure rain event for Coastal NJ and Long Island. 🩷 Zone 2 – SNOW ➜ MIX ➜ RAIN (Pink Zone) This will be the trickiest area. Some cold air will be available early, allowing wet snow to mix with rain going to pure rain. If the storm strengthens a bit more, dynamic cooling could support brief, very wet accumulations, especially N&W of NYC. ⬜ Zone 3 – Wet Snow / Mixing (White Zone) A quick thump of wet snow Tuesday with low snow ratios — making this a heavy, sloppy snow. General 3–4" expected, with isolated 4"+ possible in higher elevations along and north of I-80 and into the Hudson Valley. This is how I see things right now. I’ll break down more details on PIX11 News This Morning until 10am, and again on the 4/5/6/10pm newscasts.

214,786 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

THIS WEEKEND'S STORM FEATURES MANY TWISTS AND TURNS.. MY 1ST CALL SNOWFALL MAP... I feel strongly enough to put out a first look at the weekend storm (Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning) as the models have essentially held on to a consistent trend in the vort max and low development going into Saturday afternoon. Two area's that remain a stronger confidence level for me is the area in pink where the mode of precip is pure snow and gray area where mixing will be a big factor during the middle of the event. When you run the overall precip numbers and thermals you arrive in this ball park (outlined below) The twists and turns come into play once we see the vort max rotate north and the interaction between the energy and coastal low by Saturday night. This is why you see such a massive range (6-16") in the pink area as this could either go into a more moderate snow event working off 10:1-11:1 ratios and ending quickly OR we see a slower process with more moisture working northbound. The area in white should see at least 4" with a 6" maximum. I don't see this area going much higher given all that is on the table and how climatology goes. That said, this is also an area I could easily extend into #Baltimore and #DC faster than #Philadelphia and #NYC given wind vectors and cold air advancement. A personal aside, as a TV meteorologist and private sector forecaster I don't like to over-promise and under deliver. That costs $$ and bothers people. That being said, I will not dilute a forecast to hedge it as playing conservative holds more danger to public perception. So understanding my position should hopefully squash any bias you may feel I have :) Here's my initial feeling as we stand here at 6pm on 1/2/24 for a forecast for the weekend! MORE LATER..

THIS WEEKEND'S STORM FEATURES MANY TWISTS AND TURNS.. MY 1ST CALL SNOWFALL MAP... I feel strongly enough to put out a first look at the weekend storm (Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning) as the models have essentially held on to a consistent trend in the vort max and low development going into Saturday afternoon. Two area's that remain a stronger confidence level for me is the area in pink where the mode of precip is pure snow and gray area where mixing will be a big factor during the middle of the event. When you run the overall precip numbers and thermals you arrive in this ball park (outlined below) The twists and turns come into play once we see the vort max rotate north and the interaction between the energy and coastal low by Saturday night. This is why you see such a massive range (6-16") in the pink area as this could either go into a more moderate snow event working off 10:1-11:1 ratios and ending quickly OR we see a slower process with more moisture working northbound. The area in white should see at least 4" with a 6" maximum. I don't see this area going much higher given all that is on the table and how climatology goes. That said, this is also an area I could easily extend into #Baltimore and #DC faster than #Philadelphia and #NYC given wind vectors and cold air advancement. A personal aside, as a TV meteorologist and private sector forecaster I don't like to over-promise and under deliver. That costs $$ and bothers people. That being said, I will not dilute a forecast to hedge it as playing conservative holds more danger to public perception. So understanding my position should hopefully squash any bias you may feel I have :) Here's my initial feeling as we stand here at 6pm on 1/2/24 for a forecast for the weekend! MORE LATER..

237,688 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

10AM STORM UPDATE… we are in the “LULL” of the storm… why I don’t have 24-30” snow bands on our forecast maps PIX11 News

10AM STORM UPDATE… we are in the “LULL” of the storm… why I don’t have 24-30” snow bands on our forecast maps PIX11 News

39,419 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

11AM STORM UPDATE ❄️ | NEW PHASE OF THE STORM The next phase of this storm arrives later today and will bulldoze any remaining warm layers aloft, especially across coastal NJ and southern Long Island. We’re already seeing this play out: • North Shore reports of 1–2” are coming in • South Shore? Nothing yet — and that makes sense The coastal plain is holding onto warmth, delaying the rain-to-snow conversion. 👉 Key feature to watch on satellite: This is your lifting zone — the piece that will overcome boundary-layer issues. Between 12–3 PM, snow rates will increase, allowing accumulation even on major roadways. The green-shaded area highlights intense lift beginning to organize. Track that feature north and east, and it lines up with the areas that have the best chance to overachieve later today. Next update at 1PM. NAP time before the evening/night newscasts 😴 PIX11 News

11AM STORM UPDATE ❄️ | NEW PHASE OF THE STORM The next phase of this storm arrives later today and will bulldoze any remaining warm layers aloft, especially across coastal NJ and southern Long Island. We’re already seeing this play out: • North Shore reports of 1–2” are coming in • South Shore? Nothing yet — and that makes sense The coastal plain is holding onto warmth, delaying the rain-to-snow conversion. 👉 Key feature to watch on satellite: This is your lifting zone — the piece that will overcome boundary-layer issues. Between 12–3 PM, snow rates will increase, allowing accumulation even on major roadways. The green-shaded area highlights intense lift beginning to organize. Track that feature north and east, and it lines up with the areas that have the best chance to overachieve later today. Next update at 1PM. NAP time before the evening/night newscasts 😴 PIX11 News

39,074 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

FRIDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE — 🧊DON’T SLEEP ON THE SLEET BY SUN AFTERNOON I’m still focused on warm air moving in around 700mb, which could flip snow to sleet across much of central and southern New Jersey. We will see a front-end thump of very heavy snow with intense snowfall rates — that’s how most areas reach their forecast totals. But if that changeover to sleet happens faster and more aggressively, some totals could get trimmed. For NYC and points north and west, this is still a major snowstorm. That forecast has not changed. If you’re asking me for a number in the city? 👉 Over/Under: 8 inches — I’m taking the OVER. 🎥 Full breakdown in the video PIX11 News

FRIDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE — 🧊DON’T SLEEP ON THE SLEET BY SUN AFTERNOON I’m still focused on warm air moving in around 700mb, which could flip snow to sleet across much of central and southern New Jersey. We will see a front-end thump of very heavy snow with intense snowfall rates — that’s how most areas reach their forecast totals. But if that changeover to sleet happens faster and more aggressively, some totals could get trimmed. For NYC and points north and west, this is still a major snowstorm. That forecast has not changed. If you’re asking me for a number in the city? 👉 Over/Under: 8 inches — I’m taking the OVER. 🎥 Full breakdown in the video PIX11 News

29,966 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! Air-parcel trajectory analysis will confirm the next polar plunge has true Arctic origins, tapping air straight from the North Pole with modified Siberian air mixed in. That’s the kind of source region that delivers exceptionally harsh wind chills, not just a standard cold shot. 🌬️ This air mass will sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Northeast, reinforcing the cold we already have in place. There’s simply no meaningful break from the cold pattern ahead. ❄️ I’ll be posting updated thoughts on Sunday’s storm shortly as model guidance tightens up after the 12z's are all in 📺 Back on TV tomorrow morning on PIX11 News from 7–10AM.

🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! Air-parcel trajectory analysis will confirm the next polar plunge has true Arctic origins, tapping air straight from the North Pole with modified Siberian air mixed in. That’s the kind of source region that delivers exceptionally harsh wind chills, not just a standard cold shot. 🌬️ This air mass will sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Northeast, reinforcing the cold we already have in place. There’s simply no meaningful break from the cold pattern ahead. ❄️ I’ll be posting updated thoughts on Sunday’s storm shortly as model guidance tightens up after the 12z's are all in 📺 Back on TV tomorrow morning on PIX11 News from 7–10AM.

35,045 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

THE END IS NEAR… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! ☀️ The major spring warm-up is about to end — TODAY is the last chance to soak up every glorious bit of it. A strong cold front rolls through Wednesday, and winds will shift more southeast, pulling much cooler air into NYC and the suburbs. Temperatures trend down the rest of the week with rain returning, and we’re setting the stage for a significant shot of cold about a week from today. LET ME REPEAT… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! See you at 7am on PIX11 News

THE END IS NEAR… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! ☀️ The major spring warm-up is about to end — TODAY is the last chance to soak up every glorious bit of it. A strong cold front rolls through Wednesday, and winds will shift more southeast, pulling much cooler air into NYC and the suburbs. Temperatures trend down the rest of the week with rain returning, and we’re setting the stage for a significant shot of cold about a week from today. LET ME REPEAT… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! See you at 7am on PIX11 News

18,124 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

❄️ SUNDAY SNOWFALL: TWO TRACK SCENARIOS IN PLAY TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON Both potential storm tracks continue to support accumulating snowfall across NJ, PA, NY, and CT this weekend. A fast-moving wave of low pressure will ride along a sharp thermal gradient separating Arctic air from milder air to the south. Because this system is quick—really quick—snowfall totals will be limited, but meaningful. Here are the two scenarios: 1️⃣ Track South — “The Dive Too Far” A farther-south wave keeps the frontal boundary suppressed, limiting snow northward into MD/PA. The white zone would see a general 2–4". 2️⃣ Track Slightly North — “Nudged Low” A modest north shift places the 2–4" band over central NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Philadelphia. 🌨️ Areas near the edges of the snow band can expect a dusting to 1". 🔥 Key factor: Ground surfaces will be very cold, with a solid cold-air foundation—so whatever falls will stick quickly. On PIX11 News until 10am with more details.

❄️ SUNDAY SNOWFALL: TWO TRACK SCENARIOS IN PLAY TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON Both potential storm tracks continue to support accumulating snowfall across NJ, PA, NY, and CT this weekend. A fast-moving wave of low pressure will ride along a sharp thermal gradient separating Arctic air from milder air to the south. Because this system is quick—really quick—snowfall totals will be limited, but meaningful. Here are the two scenarios: 1️⃣ Track South — “The Dive Too Far” A farther-south wave keeps the frontal boundary suppressed, limiting snow northward into MD/PA. The white zone would see a general 2–4". 2️⃣ Track Slightly North — “Nudged Low” A modest north shift places the 2–4" band over central NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Philadelphia. 🌨️ Areas near the edges of the snow band can expect a dusting to 1". 🔥 Key factor: Ground surfaces will be very cold, with a solid cold-air foundation—so whatever falls will stick quickly. On PIX11 News until 10am with more details.

26,088 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

❄️STORM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY Here’s my video forecast from this morning if you missed it… ➡️ Key Takeaway is an initial thumping of snow, especially north and west of the city as the window will be short for this storm system. ❄️ Highest totals remain north and west of I 78 and I do think there could be a couple of surprises just south of that area I’ll Have some updated thoughts today at 5 PM on PIX11 News

❄️STORM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY Here’s my video forecast from this morning if you missed it… ➡️ Key Takeaway is an initial thumping of snow, especially north and west of the city as the window will be short for this storm system. ❄️ Highest totals remain north and west of I 78 and I do think there could be a couple of surprises just south of that area I’ll Have some updated thoughts today at 5 PM on PIX11 News

26,496 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

WATCHING THE THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTEN.. KEEP AN EYE ON THE 32 (PURPLE LINE) TODAY AS COLD AIR RUSHES TO THE COAST... Sunday 11am UPDATE.... The big wildcard remains timing the cold into the I-95 cities. Right now it's running a bit colder than modeled in some spots.. You'll see a steady trend east with the 32 degree surface temperature through the morning. Evaporative cooling will also help enhance this and once the storm form we should see enough lifting processes to covert everyone to snow. Widespread 2-4" with 4-8" closer to #DC #Baltimore #Philadelphia and #NYC.. 6-8" over #Boston and southeast New England is still a very safe call that I don't plan to change.

WATCHING THE THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTEN.. KEEP AN EYE ON THE 32 (PURPLE LINE) TODAY AS COLD AIR RUSHES TO THE COAST... Sunday 11am UPDATE.... The big wildcard remains timing the cold into the I-95 cities. Right now it's running a bit colder than modeled in some spots.. You'll see a steady trend east with the 32 degree surface temperature through the morning. Evaporative cooling will also help enhance this and once the storm form we should see enough lifting processes to covert everyone to snow. Widespread 2-4" with 4-8" closer to #DC #Baltimore #Philadelphia and #NYC.. 6-8" over #Boston and southeast New England is still a very safe call that I don't plan to change.

40,965 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🌧️WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE AN ANNOYANCE… CONCERNED IT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUNDAY Model trends now develop a low near Atlantic City Sunday morning, slowing the clearing line and keeping rain over NYC longer. If this holds, we may lose much of the dry time Sunday. Outside of NW NJ, the Hudson Valley, and NW CT, rain could linger into Sunday afternoon. This all hinges on how quickly that low forms and moves offshore. Timeline: rain builds Saturday evening → peaks overnight into Sunday morning → very slow clearing. If the low fully forms and gets cut off, some rain could even hang on into Monday (as shown on this run). PIX11 News

🌧️WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE AN ANNOYANCE… CONCERNED IT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUNDAY Model trends now develop a low near Atlantic City Sunday morning, slowing the clearing line and keeping rain over NYC longer. If this holds, we may lose much of the dry time Sunday. Outside of NW NJ, the Hudson Valley, and NW CT, rain could linger into Sunday afternoon. This all hinges on how quickly that low forms and moves offshore. Timeline: rain builds Saturday evening → peaks overnight into Sunday morning → very slow clearing. If the low fully forms and gets cut off, some rain could even hang on into Monday (as shown on this run). PIX11 News

10,444 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

2:30 PM STORM UPDATE | HERE WE GO!! A rapid expansion of precipitation is beginning to show on radar, responding to a coastal low developing well S&E of Atlantic City. Surface low pressure is near 1008 mb and deepening. At the same time, a stalled boundary remains draped across the region, positioned just S&E of NYC. 👉 This boundary is the key. As the coastal low strengthens, colder air will be dynamically dragged down through the column, allowing rain to rapidly change over to snow. The Skew-T (weird looking graph) shows the verticle view of the atmosphere near NYC which highlights how shallow the warm layer is near the surface. Good snow growth and saturation to the surface and sufficiant lift means It won’t take much for snow reaching and sticking at the ground. Forecast remains on track. Once snow bands begin to intensify, accumulation will follow quickly, even on roadways. We’re roughly 90 minutes away from the snow really ramping up, with the most impactful period carrying us through the evening and early tonight. Buckle up. ❄️ PIX11 News

2:30 PM STORM UPDATE | HERE WE GO!! A rapid expansion of precipitation is beginning to show on radar, responding to a coastal low developing well S&E of Atlantic City. Surface low pressure is near 1008 mb and deepening. At the same time, a stalled boundary remains draped across the region, positioned just S&E of NYC. 👉 This boundary is the key. As the coastal low strengthens, colder air will be dynamically dragged down through the column, allowing rain to rapidly change over to snow. The Skew-T (weird looking graph) shows the verticle view of the atmosphere near NYC which highlights how shallow the warm layer is near the surface. Good snow growth and saturation to the surface and sufficiant lift means It won’t take much for snow reaching and sticking at the ground. Forecast remains on track. Once snow bands begin to intensify, accumulation will follow quickly, even on roadways. We’re roughly 90 minutes away from the snow really ramping up, with the most impactful period carrying us through the evening and early tonight. Buckle up. ❄️ PIX11 News

17,415 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten