Milk Road
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Kevin Warsh's logic behind killing forward guidance: "Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers." "But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said - then we're taking the most important source of information, and we're being blind to it."
Milk Road317,890 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
Warsh was asked about the latest dot plot release, where 9 members signaled a rate hike by year end. His response: "I reviewed the dot plots, and when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils... "You know, those kinds with the big erasers."
Milk Road181,257 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
Mike Novogratz: The US has $40T of debt and there's only one way out. "The only way we deal with that debt is to inflate it away. Period. End of story." Run 4% inflation while convincing markets you're targeting 2%. Do that for 10 years and you've erased 30% of real debt. The danger is that people could lose confidence, and 4% becomes 14% or 40% - wiping out debt AND wealth simultaneously. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road304,858 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
Novogratz: If you put Saylor on a lie detector, he'd pass. "Michael believes Bitcoin is one of the great inventions ever made... and that this thing is still destined for a million." The difference between Saylor and other big-name market analysts? "We're probability basing things. We're not religious. He's religious." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road58,682 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "I still believe this is a mid-cycle correction" "We basically had what was a mid-cycle correction in 2020 that gave us a two standard deviations oversold." "I still believe because we didn't get anywhere near a peak and the liquidity cycle is still in play that this is a mid-cycle correction." Tech has been easy money. Crypto has been a different story. But he thinks crypto plays catch-up from here. FT Raoul Pal Douglas Jones Real Vision.
Milk Road78,073 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen
Jordi Visser: The third wave of crypto is already being set up - and most people are dumping at exactly the wrong moment. "The third wave of crypto, I already know what it is." Financial guardrails (transactions, velocity of money) will be essential for billions of "token-hungry digital employees." When the physical capex trade peaks, capital needs somewhere to go. "If Nvidia and all of these companies stop going up, probability of crypto going up goes up much faster." FT Raoul Pal Jordi Visser Real Vision.
Milk Road68,278 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen
Raoul Pal: $BTC dropping from $126K to $60K is NOT a bear market. "It's a nasty correction in a bull market. I've been in crypto since 2013. I've seen many corrections, non-bear markets of 50% in Bitcoin." "But people forget this every time." Solana dropped 80% in 2021 - during a bull market with liquidity flowing - before its massive run. FT Raoul Pal MR SHIFT 🦁 Real Vision.
Milk Road177,344 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "It's all so f*cking obvious." AI agents, payment systems, wallets - all converging. "The Everything Code is in full flow right now." "All wealth compounds over time and everybody desperate to trade it, is going to f*ck it up." "Buy a few high quality top tier tokens... go to the beach for 10 years and come back on your private jet from the beach." FT Raoul Pal Real Vision Goldmember Sui.
Milk Road289,104 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
David Hoffman: "The decision to sell my $ETH came from seeing a difficulty in the Ethereum network being market competitive." ETH went from 90%+ smart contract dominance to 60%, and that gap is the difference between "ETH is money" and "ETH is just another L1 asset." What's missing is a killer instinct at the top (the EF). FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth David Hoffman Camila Russo The Defiant.
Milk Road130,887 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen
Raoul Pal: Agents spawn sub-agents, who spawn more sub-agents... "Agents building their own agents is a nonlinear function." And the scale won't follow Metcalfe's law - it'll follow Reed's law, which is the square of that. This is a Cambrian explosion of new economic participants. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision.
Milk Road109,168 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen
Matt Hougan: "If you take out $BTC and you take out stablecoins, what is the market cap of what we're trying to reinvent finance with?" "It is less than a trillion dollars." ETH is ~$200B, but from there it falls off a cliff. The entire DeFi ecosystem trying to recreate global finance has the market cap of half of Micron. "A relatively small industry going after an enormous addressable market. That's why it's interesting and why it's a contrarian investment." FT Matt Hougan LG DOUCET.
Milk Road56,775 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen
Saylor: "If you walk down the street and ask people, 'Do you want a bank account that pays you 11% that the government won't tax?'" "Everybody's answer is, 'Of course I want that. What's the catch?'" The catch is it's new. The real risk is simple: If you think Bitcoin goes to zero, don't buy it - it's like owning credit on a Manhattan building. You lose money if "Manhattan sinks underneath the ocean," but not under normal conditions. FT Michael Saylor Sam Vadas Schwab Network.
Milk Road66,157 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen
Raoul Pal: "If we're going from $2.5T to $100T, why the f*ck would you sell anything??" The entire financial system is rebuilding on crypto rails, agents are everywhere, robots are incoming, the CLARITY Act is crossing the line... "And you're going to sell it because Raoul and Julian think the liquidity cycle is going to slow down for a bit?" "F*cking bananas." We're at the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history. Trying to time it is stupid FT Raoul Pal Julien Bittel, CFA Real Vision.
Milk Road120,148 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen
Raoul Pal: No major financial institution will use public blockchains at scale without privacy. That's the blocker. Ethereum and Sui are both now building permissioned privacy into their base chains. Privacy that regulators can unlock when needed, but nobody else can see. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision Jamie Coutts CMT
Milk Road176,951 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Raoul Pal: AI costs $200/month. Feeding a human costs $10K/year just to get to human-level compute. "I'm paying 200 bucks a month for Claude" "I get PHD-level intelligence on every single subject know to humanity." The cost to produce this intelligence is collapsing. And it's already "more capable than any human could ever be." This changes everything about labor, value, and what skills even mean. FT Raoul Pal Real Vision
Milk Road142,933 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
SpaceX's IPO is the biggest in history - by a factor of three. ... but Mike Novogratz is nervous. "I worry because sometimes this is how great markets end. The Palm IPO was right at the end of the internet bubble." The question is whether the SpaceX moment is a celebration or a warning sign. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
Milk Road18,559 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
Mike Novogratz: No one cares about anything outside the AI food chain right now. "Crypto is in that... we tried to make the crypto agentic link. It's actually a real link. It's not a theoretical link..." "But no one cares about crypto right now." "Markets need energy." "And then you've got Saylor selling a little bit. I don't know why he did that, it was a strange move..." "It was a tiny amount - but if the guy with laser eyes is selling $BTC, that's not good either." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge SALT.
Milk Road34,746 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen
David Hoffman: Wall Street moving onchain might actually be BAD for $ETH the asset. Wall Street thinks in risk language. They'll love Ethereum's credible neutrality. But they'll also love that "Ethereum charges me basically nothing." "I will put 10 trillion dollars of assets on Ethereum because Ethereum is charging me basically nothing to do that." Great for the network. Great for activity. But if fees stay near zero, what actually pushes $ETH price up? FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth David Hoffman Camila Russo The Defiant.
Milk Road38,567 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen
David Hoffman: The argument has been that "Ethereum can't secure tens of trillions of dollars of assets if Ether is $10." "And I'm like, you're right. That doesn't mean Ether is going to go up..." "There is no mechanism there. The mechanism is missing." FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth David Hoffman Camila Russo The Defiant.
Milk Road28,844 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen