Aaron Dishner
@MooninPapa • 19,244 subscribers
Teaching. Trading. TBO. Crypto courses at The Better Traders. Official links below👇
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OTHERS/BTC just broke long-term overhead resistance, and that is the crypto chart that stopped me in my tracks today. I’m seeing altcoins gain strength against Bitcoin while OTHERS.D approaches the resistance zone near 9%. My altcoin market outlook is bullish, but the closer dominance gets to that overhead line, the more seriously I’m taking profit protection. A strong rally is not a reason to abandon the plan. Bitcoin is holding above TBO resistance at 80,433, but my Bitcoin price analysis still has one important condition: daily RSI needs to close above 74.13 to overcome its previous high. Otherwise, another pullback is possible. Ethereum has confirmed a second TBO breakout while testing price resistance, and falling stablecoin and Bitcoin dominance are supporting the rotation into alts. Bearish divergence is a warning to watch, not proof that the rally is over. BNB is working on a second TBO breakout with bearish RSI divergence, STRK pumped 52% on Friday before approaching resistance at 0.0525, and AVAX confirmed a breakout after a powerful weekend move. I’m watching those bullish setups without ignoring how extended they’ve become. Harmony’s huge rally makes the same point: take profit according to predetermined targets and amounts, rather than letting excitement or anxiety rewrite the plan. I’ve sold too much too early myself, and that is the mistake I want to help you avoid. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Holds Resistance as RSI Tests Momentum 04:15 Ethereum Breakout Faces Price Resistance 06:51 Stablecoin and Bitcoin Dominance Weakness Supports Altcoins 09:14 Crypto Market Dominance Breakouts Confirm Bullish Strength 11:43 OTHERS.D Approaches Long-Term Resistance Toward 9% 15:33 Altcoin Market Momentum Nears the Heating-Up Target 21:19 OTHERS/BTC Breaks Long-Term Overhead Resistance 23:21 DXY Tests Resistance as S&P Futures Turn Bullish 30:00 BNB Breakout Faces Bearish Divergence Warnings 33:04 STRK Rally Approaches TBO Resistance 35:50 Altcoins Clear TBO Resistance as Bullish Strength Expands 38:48 NEAR Approaches Resistance After a Breakout Cluster 42:46 Club Picks Test Resistance as Bullish Setups Expand 48:30 YouTube Picks Rally as Harmony Tests Profit Discipline
Aaron Dishner10,988 просмотров • 2 дней назад
If my crypto portfolio turned entirely to cash today, I would not automatically rebuild the same positions at the same weights. My honest buy, hold, or wait verdict is that I’d start building FET now near its historical lows, keep INJ on my list but prefer a lower entry, give deeply oversold STRK only a small speculative allocation until a bullish reversal confirms, and keep long-term BTC exposure without immediately putting 25% of the reset portfolio into Bitcoin. The common thread in my crypto portfolio review is discipline, not going all in. I would scale into positions across multiple entries, keep stablecoin or cash available for deeper pullbacks, and separate what I already own from where fresh money deserves to go. Bitcoin may absorb less damage than altcoins when the market turns, but its cycle returns have also diminished, so even my long-term Bitcoin strategy starts with gradual buying rather than chasing. I also want a simpler portfolio: fewer positions, enough conviction and size for the winners to matter, and a clear plan for every entry, exit, DCA, or stop-loss. Spreading money across dozens of crypto coins can dilute gains and make the next selloff harder to manage. If I would not add fresh cash to a holding today—or cannot explain what would change my mind—I need to question why it is still in my portfolio. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 A Cash Reset Exposes Which Holdings I’d Buy Again 03:08 INJ Faces a Better Entry Lower; Scaling Controls Risk 05:47 FET Near Historical Lows: Build a Position on Pullbacks 08:05 STRK Is Oversold, but Confirmation Must Come Before Size 12:11 BTC Upside Comes With Cycle-Degradation Risk 16:35 Fresh Cash Shifts Where New Money Goes 18:49 Simplicity Strengthens a Concentrated Portfolio 21:15 Contentment and Rotation Reduce Pullback Risk 23:33 A Position Audit Exposes Impulse Without a Plan 27:07 A Cash Reset Defines the Why, Size, and Plan 📈 Kalshi Perpetuals Trade Kalshi Perpetuals: I’m an independent Kalshi affiliate and may earn a commission. Perpetuals trading carries a high risk of loss; availability and eligibility may vary. 🔥 Bitunix Moonin Papa Exclusive Campaign: Tiered Futures Bonus rewards are available. Registration through this link is required; terms, availability, verification, and regional restrictions apply. I’m an independent affiliate and may earn a commission. Futures trading carries a high risk of loss. 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 🥇 Join the Club Indicators, strategies, alerts, and early video access: 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:
Aaron Dishner13,619 просмотров • 3 дней назад
BTC wicked up to 79,760, almost 80,000, on Friday before news pumped and dumped it right back down. I don't think this is a predictive wick, because this rally has already been running for a while, so I'm calling it a pump and dump wick. Bitcoin still closed above the cloud with the TBO lines separating, but if we lose 76,706 at the 0.786 fib, I expect a quick dip to 72K. Ethereum shot up almost 10% to 2665 with all four TBO lines pointing up, yet it still didn't close above resistance. Stablecoin dominance got rejected at the fast line, Bitcoin dominance dropped 0.33% as Ethereum led, and I'm still treating Others as a buy the dip opportunity. In TradFi, DXY didn't close inside the cloud, and USDJPY fell to 153.468 with RSI barely oversold, which I'd love to see continue all the way down to 140. The Euro lost support after the ECB, SPX bounced off the fast line with a unanimously bullish weekly, the VIX dropped 11%, and NASDAQ closed long. Oil Futures hit 104.49 with a late exhaustion breakout after eight overbought days, so don't be surprised by a pullback. Gold is still below long-term resistance, Uranium is down 13% from that shooting star, and PAXG/BTC on-balance volume says gold may hold up better than Bitcoin. For my picks, Pepe ran 42% into TBO resistance, so I'd rather buy the pullback than chase it, and Raydium is still on fire near the top of the weekly cloud. World Liberty Financial dropped 16% with a predictive wick, Aster and Morpho printed exit signals, and Bitlayer's second close long is where I walk away. AIOZ closed above TBO resistance for a strong uptrend, Solana bounced 9% but still fights a strong weekly downtrend, and XRP left a fair value gap down to 99 cents. Apple looks strong bullish, Robinhood is close to filling its lower gap for a dip buy, and GDX printed a bearish divergence cluster. On the YouTube picks, IREN is back to chop inside the cloud, ISRG is a take profit at the fast line, Lithium Americas has TBO support near 3.09, and FHE's on-balance volume leans toward more upside. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 02:24 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 04:28 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 06:51 EURUSD Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk 09:28 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 12:32 PEPE Remains Strong Bearish 14:47 Meme Coin Risk and Sentiment 21:28 FET Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 24:16 Solana Support and Seller Pressure 26:19 ISRG Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk
Aaron Dishner14,797 просмотров • 11 дней назад
BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching. TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move. My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K 08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets 13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance 18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices 23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium 25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset 28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV 31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more 37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE 41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up
Aaron Dishner63,224 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
BTC closed Monday up 1.62%, tagging a fresh local high right at 80,000, but RSI only managed a lower high at 88, so we've got a confirmed bearish divergence layered on top of six straight days overbought. That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to drop today, but I'm watching the fast line near 70,400 and the 618 Fib around 72K as the realistic pullback zones if buyers pause here. Ethereum is in the same boat, overbought for seven days after topping near 2,546, so I'm watching for a bearish RSI reset on both coins rather than assuming the rally just keeps ripping without a breather. Dominance is telling the real story of where money is flowing right now. Stablecoin dominance cratered to oversold, Bitcoin dominance spiked, Ethereum dominance is still strong but showing early bearish RSI resets, and Solana dominance just broke out with its first closed short since 2023, which tells me alts are starting to wake up even though TOTAL3ESBTC shows we're still nowhere near the euphoric highs from past cycles. The total crypto market cap excluding stables pushed back to 2.4 trillion, and closing above that would open the door to a much hotter move, so I'm treating every one of these pullbacks as a buying opportunity rather than something to fear. On the TradFi side, DXY caught a bullish RSI reset after Besant's comments on Iran sanctions, S&P Futures are chopping inside the cloud even with strong PMI data, Nvidia printed a bearish reversal after earnings, and gold is threatening to break above the 0.5 Fib level in a big way. Across my picks, Club picks, and YouTube picks I'm leaning hard into buy the dip mode on names like Solana, Injective, XLM, APT, Uber, Meta, and App, because between the overbought streaks and the dominance rotation, I still think we're early in this cycle, not late. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 07:50 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 10:42 Bitcoin Dominance Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 14:07 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 21:51 TOTAL3ESBTC Resistance Shows Altcoins Are Still Early 26:36 EURUSD Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 29:24 Tesla Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 35:02 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk 39:13 BONK Resistance Could Confirm a Bullish Trend 51:15 NBIS Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
Aaron Dishner18,370 просмотров • 29 дней назад
BTC has now wicked above the same resistance three times in five days, and that keeps weakening the level. I still think the most likely short-term move is a push toward the CME gap at $81,145, but I do not like the risk to reward for longs up here. If my bigger bearish thesis is right, this rally is setting up a much better short later, not a chase long now. That bigger picture still matters more to me. April has already done the heavy lifting, while the historical setup for May and June still points to deeper downside and much bigger volatility. If that pattern keeps tracking, BTC could still be setting up for a much harder drop over the next two months. ETH still looks weaker than BTC, BTC dominance keeps pressing higher, and TOTALES is holding up better than the smaller alt indexes. But TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 are both flashing more bearish reversal pressure underneath, so I still think altcoins are vulnerable even if some charts are bouncing for now. In TradFi, DXY and USDJPY both still look capable of pushing higher, ES finally cooled off after a strong streak, the VIX is trying to turn, and the Nikkei still looks strong but not invincible. On the watchlist, I am paying closest attention to XMR, XLM, CHZ, STRK, H, HYPE, TAO, XRP, RENDER, and SOL.
Aaron Dishner69,553 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to suggest the market may have found a bottom six to eight weeks earlier than I expected. I am not treating that as permission to ignore downside risk. BTC is pressing into former support around $82,000 to $82,850, and a rejection there would keep the bear-flag scenario alive. Realized price remains below $53,000, a $50,000 pullback still fits the structure, and $72,000 is the next line I would watch if the market retreats. I am starting to pivot from reflexively shorting strength toward scaling into high-quality setups, but I still want confirmation and patience. The market is showing real bottoming signals, yet the shallow structure, the risk of a pullback, and the way a small Ethereum move briefly punished alts all argue against reckless dumpster diving. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Shift The Thesis 03:09 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms 2023 Parallels 06:17 Oversold Signals Strengthen The Bottom Case 09:55 Bitcoin's 26% Rebound Signals Momentum 13:03 Realized Price Still Defines Downside Risk 16:16 Bitcoin Breaks $82,850 To Shift Structure 19:23 Shallow Bottoming Signals Need Confirmation 22:34 Bitcoin Scaling Awaits The Pullback 25:38 Dumpster Diving Still Carries Extreme Risk 28:38 Ethereum Volatility Exposes Altcoin Fragility 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Bitunix 👉 💪 Join the Better Traders Club for indicators, tools, and community: 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:
Aaron Dishner14,620 просмотров • 24 дней назад
Bitcoin exploded again on Thursday, jumping 5.3% to 73,400 and closing right above our 72,204 short term Fibonacci level, filling that fair value gap from the June 1st drop that a viewer flagged weeks ago. I'm not chasing this move since it's up 17% in a week, which is too far too fast, so I'm watching for a pullback toward the 66,000 fast line before adding rather than jumping in front of a speeding train. RSI closed at 91.63, the most overbought since November 2024, but unlike that rally year we're still technically in a bottom year, and spot volume at 2.6 billion tells me this is real demand, not just liquidation-driven futures noise. Ethereum is right there with it, pushing to a new local high near 2,360 with RSI at 94.31, nearly the mirror image of June's oversold reading, and it's testing the 2,376 TVO resistance zone on strong volume. Stablecoin dominance has cratered to an oversold 8.54 RSI, the lowest since November 2023, and Bitcoin dominance is surging, which tells me money is still rotating into large caps like BTC and ETH before it trickles down into the broader altcoin market. On the TradFi side DXY looks headed lower, gold confirmed a close above resistance, and it's honestly strange that S&P futures dropped almost a percent while crypto is ripping like this. On my picks, Solana broke TBO resistance with RSI at its highest since 2025, Trump coin pumped 27% on what looks like a short squeeze, WIF closed above a long standing resistance level for the first time in ages, and HBAR cleared major overhead resistance that's held since 2025. A lot of these charts have moved 15 to 30% in days and are hitting resistance, so I'm treating fresh entries carefully and favoring DCA rather than chasing. Over in the club picks, stocks are still lagging behind crypto's move, with Oracle showing bullish TBL closes and Nvidia holding support, while Netflix already tagged its early take profit target. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 05:45 BTC Close Above Daily Cloud Signals Higher Fib Targets 11:46 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 18:21 OTHERS Market Breadth 25:26 S&P Futures and Equity Risk 31:55 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk 41:01 Meme Coin Risk and Sentiment 45:38 UNI Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 52:07 ISRG Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 59:55 Chainlink Watchlist Risk 1:03:55 STRK Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 1:07:54 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals
Aaron Dishner16,600 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high at $125k- but if you haven't noticed, ALTs aren't pumping big time. Why is that? Simple: Bitcoin Dominance is increasing (just as expected). But when BTC.D peaks at about 61%, I expect it to fall and give way to the next ALT rally. LOTS of coins to watch, so pay attention 👇
Aaron Dishner111,143 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад
Bitcoin attempted a bounce on Sunday, wicking 5.8% up to 64,234, but the move stalled directly at the TBO line that flipped from support to resistance after Friday's break below 60,000. In today's update, I explain why this still looks more like a dead cat bounce than a real reversal: Friday's 3.3 billion volume was far below the capitulation levels I want to see at prior cycle lows, Sunday did not print a bullish engulfing candle, and the same daily RSI reset pattern showed up on May 30th at 73K right before a 20% collapse followed. I also walk through the TradFi pressure that hit markets on Friday, including the DXY surge, S&P futures down 2.9%, the VIX spiking 39%, and gold dropping 3.3% in the same session. The Japanese yen is drifting back toward dangerous territory near 160.34, the Nikkei opened Monday already down 3.7%, and stablecoin dominance nearly tagged 13% before pulling back on the Sunday bounce. If stablecoin dominance and BTC dominance both keep pushing higher, I expect others dominance and alts to take the bigger hit. I finish with a full coin review across my picks list, including BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC, BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN, followed by bearish reads on SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ, TON, NEAR, TRUMP, and VVV. Viewer picks include AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, and CRO, with stock coverage wrapping on PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, and RDW. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC dead cat bounce and TBO resistance 03:24 Daily RSI reset and what it actually signals 06:44 Dead cat bounce explained and BTC downside targets 12:08 Ethereum and stablecoin dominance breakdown 16:11 TradFi: DXY, Euro, Yen, S&P Futures, VIX 19:09 Oil, Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium 27:59 Aaron's picks: BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC 33:48 BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN 37:30 Bearish alts: SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ 40:17 TON, NEAR, TRUMP, VIRTUALS, and VVV 43:38 Viewer picks: AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, CRO 45:55 Stock picks: PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, RDW
Aaron Dishner38,004 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
Bitcoin closed green today at 0.62%, but I'm watching price stall right below 79,000 with resistance capped near 82K, just above TBO resistance at 81,788. RSI has been confirmed overbought for eight straight days now, which is due for a pullback, even though on-balance volume still looks strongly bullish. My targets if this rolls over are the 0.786 fib near 76,700 first, then the 0.618 near 72,200, and I'll treat any real dip there as a buy the dip moment rather than a reason to panic. Ethereum closed up 2.63% and is still respecting resistance even with RSI overbought and volume fading, so I'm not ruling out a break higher before the eventual reset. Stablecoin dominance is exceptionally oversold and due for a snap back, Bitcoin dominance is showing higher highs with lower highs on RSI, and Solana dominance just had a huge breakout move on a 4.7% pop. Over on TradFi, DXY confirmed a strong bearish downtrend after losing its support line, USDJPY is still consolidating bullish without tagging its fast line yet, and EURUSD is cracking on a bearish RSI reset. I'm still taking a buy the dip approach on S&P Futures into Jackson Hole, along with Tesla and SpaceX, while oil, gold, silver, platinum, and copper all look set up for pullbacks that turn into buying opportunities, and uranium just printed a textbook shooting star reversal at the top of its move. Running through my picks, CVX is exceptionally overbought after a third breakout, DOG is stretched near 94 RSI on short liquidations, and gram, DOT, QNT, FLR, and LUNC all confirmed close shorts pointing to fast line pullbacks. NEAR and S both just confirmed open longs as bullish reversal signals, while POL and STABLE are flashing bearish close longs and breakdowns to watch. On the Club and YouTube Picks side, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and OKLO all carry bearish warnings pointing to pullback levels, ORCL and LIT are showing bullish reversal setups, and CRWD, ZETA, and CIFR all look like buy the dip candidates as they work toward resistance. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance 05:26 Ethereum Holds Bullish Trend As Volume Fades 08:23 Solana Dominance Breaks Out On Big Volume 11:57 DXY Confirms Bearish Downtrend Below Support 14:14 S&P Futures Signal Buy The Dip Ahead 16:36 Gold Faces Pullback Risk Before Bullish Continuation 19:24 Uranium Market Signals Shooting Star Reversal 26:25 Convex Finance Breaks Out To Overbought Extreme 35:52 Sonic Confirms Bullish Reversal After Open Long 41:35 Apple Risks Pullback To 285 Support 46:09 Nvidia Flashes Bearish Warning On Close Longs 57:32 CrowdStrike Stock Signals Buy The Dip Opportunity
Aaron Dishner12,520 просмотров • 27 дней назад
BTC is pushing toward major resistance near 81,400 to 82,850 after closing higher, but I remain cautious because RSI is deeply overbought. ETHUSDT looks bullish on higher timeframes, although its late breakout may signal exhaustion, while dominance suggests altcoin rotation is still early. I see DXY holding a strong bearish trend, USDJPY completing its fast-line target, and S&P Futures remaining bullish. I am treating potential NVDA weakness as a buy-the-dip opportunity, watching TSLA for bullish follow-through, and expecting pullbacks across gold, silver, platinum, and uranium. I am watching XMRUSD and JUPUSDT for further upside, but several breakouts look extended after large rallies. Across the Club and YouTube picks, I favor confirmed strength, selective dip opportunities, and taking profits into resistance rather than assuming an oversold chart has reached its bottom. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 03:57 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation 09:18 USDJPY Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 15:26 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 19:12 XMR and UNI Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 27:45 Community Picks Volume Tests the Momentum Case 32:30 ISRG Volume Tests the Momentum Case 38:33 FET Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 40:42 STRK Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 46:47 Cardano Overbought Risk and Rejection Zones 50:40 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals
Aaron Dishner12,024 просмотров • 26 дней назад
BTC pushed to $81,272 after gaining nearly 30% in nine days. I still see exceptionally bullish volume and on-balance volume, but daily bearish divergence, an extended overbought streak, and rejection near historical resistance tell me to protect profit and prepare for volatility. ETH remains strong bullish, though fading momentum makes a pullback toward its fast line increasingly reasonable. I see DXY remaining strong bearish, while USDJPY needs to lose short-term support before the larger bearish move develops. S&P Futures look stalled ahead of Jackson Hole, TSLA remains in bullish consolidation, and SPCX still shows buyers winning. Gold and silver remain bullish but vulnerable to pullbacks, while PAXGBTC looks due for a bounce. I’m watching POLUSDT, INJUSDT, FFUSDT, and JASMYUSD for continued breakout strength, while GRAMUSDT, FILUSD, FLRUSDT, and APTUSD offer pullback entries. ZECUSDT, HBARUSDT, UNIUSDT, and PYTHUSDT are flashing reversal warnings. Among the later picks, ULTIMAUSDT has a confirmed open long, HYPEUSDT is overheating, SOFI is compressing for a move, and INTC is holding support with bounce potential. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Divergence Builds Against Price Momentum 04:53 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 08:23 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation 12:27 USDJPY Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation 17:04 Gold Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 22:56 Community Picks Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 30:06 UNI Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 34:20 ISRG Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 39:45 FET Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 41:55 PUMP Momentum and Reversal Risk 47:08 SOFI and Nike Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
Aaron Dishner12,297 просмотров • 28 дней назад
Bitcoin exploded 7% through overhead resistance and above the cloud, but I’m not treating one liquidation-driven candle as proof that the bottom is in. Treasury debt buybacks and a historic short squeeze drove the move, so I’m watching the 69,200 resistance cluster and the 72,204 continuation target while allowing for a pullback first. Ethereum surged 17% with much stronger spot volume, but its breakouts printed on unusually large candles and several Fibonacci levels still sit overhead. I’m tracking Ethereum volume, on-balance volume, stablecoin dominance, and Bitcoin dominance to see whether capital keeps rotating into ETH and the majors or whether this was a one-day liquidity shock. DXY broke lower while equities lagged the crypto reaction, gold and silver pushed into resistance, and low-cap dominance still showed limited conviction. I need sustained volume, support holds, and follow-through beyond the news catalyst before changing my broader bottom-year thesis or assuming this pump is durable. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Breakout Tests Whether the Pump Can Hold 02:20 Bitcoin Treasury Buyback News Raises Liquidity Risk 04:53 Historic Short Liquidations Drive BTC and ETH 07:23 Bitcoin Pump Raises Timing Risk While Bottom Risk Remains 10:52 Fibonacci Clusters Mark Bitcoin Resistance 15:03 News-Driven Momentum Raises Sustainability Risk 17:08 Bitcoin Spot Volume Must Confirm the Price Move 19:46 Bitcoin Volume Trails Capitulation Days and Weakens Conviction 22:07 Ethereum’s 17% Rally Raises Risk-Control Questions 26:23 Ethereum Volume Improves Into Fibonacci Resistance 28:49 Stablecoin Dominance Breaks the Daily Cloud 31:18 Bitcoin Dominance Rotation Signals Ethereum Demand 33:33 Low-Cap Dominance Signals Continued Major-Coin Preference 35:35 DXY Breaks Lower While Equities Lag 37:57 Gold and Silver Push Into Resistance
Aaron Dishner13,365 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Bitcoin dropped to $93k yesterday and also printed a second TBO Breakdown, which is a bearish explosive prediction symbol from the Trending Breakout indicator. It's interesting to see BTC bounce from this level, but the signs are clear on multiple time frames that BTC is looking more and more bearish. ETH also confirmed its first TBO Breakdown yesterday on its daily close. Not to mention it printed a TBO Close Long on the weekly candle too. Now speaking of TBO Close Longs on the weekly, one possible outcome for these signals is that we get an oversold bounce for both BTC and ETH up to the weekly TBO Fast lines. If this happens, the market will feel ECSTATIC for a short period, but given how strong bearish the charts are, there is a strong chance that it will only be a temporary bounce before we see more pain to the downside. To make matters worse, combined stablecoin dominance printed its third TBO Breakout on the daily- the final symbol we'll see for the Breakout cluster. To make matters worse here, weekly RSI is above 75, which means we're more likely to see bullish continuation for this chart- which means more pain for ALTs (bot not all of them). STRK, XMR, ASTER and MORPHO have valid TBO Breakouts on their 4h and daily charts, which means we could see these chart have more explosive upside continuation. LTC, PI and BANANAS31 have new TBO Close Shorts on the daily time frame, which are early bullish reversal signals. Yes, I'm still expecting LTC to pump. The market isn't over until LTC (the fat lady) sings/pumps. ZEC, DASH, NIBI and RESOLV remain strong bullish with the TBO, making these good candidates for further upside continuation. SOL printed a third and final TBO Breakdown on its daily chart over the weekend, and ADA printed a TBO Breakdown Cluster on its 4h chart. These signals warn us of potential explosive downside continuation. TEL, XPL and MYX are worth watching this week due to irregular Volume and price action.
Aaron Dishner62,656 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад
WOW! Bitcoin not only broke above overhead resistance in our bull flag, it also took out the next three resistance fan levels! This is a HUGE BULLISH signal for Bitcoin and crypto. Uptober is definitely here! Now, the reality of this move is that the combined stablecoin dominance chart is at critical short term support. If BTC has a slight pullback today, that will cause stablecoin dominance to bounce off of support, which will validate that level of support and cause a wider market pullback (even though it should just be minor). Secondly, the TOTALES daily chart is also right at resistance today. If it can break ABOVE resistance, then we'll see combined stablecoin dominance DROP LOWER, which is EXACTLY what we want to see in order for more bullish continuation. Lots of charts are having incredible TBO Breakouts right now, showing me that there is more bullish explosive upside continuation possible for IMX, ZEC, SNX and FLR. ADA, APT, QNT and HNT all have valid TBO Close Shorts, which are my FAVORITE bullish reversal signals. BCH, LTC, AAVE, MNT, XDC and PUMP all look massively bullish to me. NEAR and SOL both "closed" their TBO Close Longs, but I'm still avoiding NEAR for now. ALPINE had a MASSIVE pump and dump, losing over 70% yesterday 💀 BLUE, DASH, XRP, XLM, SUI, SHIB, XMR, SPX6900 and S are all worth watching closely today too. But my main concern lies with the fact that several "OG" coins like DASH, ZEC, LTC and XMR are pumping- which is typically a sign that we're at the start of an ALT rally. While this is great news, I'm cautiously watching these signs, and so should you!
Aaron Dishner64,684 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад
BTC didn't put in a higher high, but RSI finally flipped overbought on Sunday. More importantly, however, combined stablecoin dominance printed a major reversal signal on last week's candle close. This alone is making me second guess crypto- if it weren't for the growing bearish sentiment from TradFi... Lots to unpack today.
Aaron Dishner31,848 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
BTC stayed put over the weekend and didn't make any new CME Gaps (same for ETH and SOL), plus it even printed a TBO Close Short on the 4-hour time frame (my FAVORITE bullish reversal symbol)! And BTC isn't the only one. TOTALES.D and TOTALE100.D both printed TBO Close Shorts, and even the TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 market cap charts too! I'm expecting ALTs to bounce this week because of these bullish reversal symbols in tight clusters. XMR, TAO, DASH and SYRUP all have valid TBO Breakouts on the 4h and daily time frames, meaning I expect these to continue to have explosive upside continuation. Like I said before, LOTS of charts printed TBO Close Shorts over the weekend: LINK, SHIB, ETC, ASTER, APT, POL, ICP, NEXO, BONK, GRT, IOTA, STRK, ATH and WAL. I wasn't kidding! There are also charts that are looking generally bullish due to price action, RSI, Volume, the TBO, and TBT Bullish Divergences: ADA, ZEC, AAVE, FLR, BORG (surprising, right?), and 0G. ENA and CRV unfortunately printed TBO Breakdowns on their 4h charts over the weekend, which are bearish explosive warning symbols. M, TRUMP and AERO printed TBO Close Longs on their 4-hour charts, putting a brief pause on their previous uptrends. SOL, COAI and XPL are still on my watchlist for desperate price action needed. SOL needs to push up above $190 in order to stay bullish or risk falling below short term support. COAI and XPL are due for a reversal bounce, which I believe is coming soon.
Aaron Dishner39,316 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад
BTC is down over 3.5% on Wednesday's daily candle close. Eight green candles in a row was manipulation. We had our pivot high on March 17th - the bear flag has resolved. Next pivot low is likely $65K-$67K. After that, the support break, retest as resistance, and we go lower. Based on previous drawdowns of 84% and 77%, a 70% drop from $126K lands around $37K-$38,555 - lining up with our artificial supports. Bear markets have lasted 52-54 weeks. We're still a couple of months out. RSI confirmed the reversal with a lower high at 76.83 versus January's 82.07. BTC wicked into the fast line and risks closing back below the cloud - that flips us from bullish consolidation back to strong bearish. ETH took a 5% close with RSI reset from 84 Monday to 57 Wednesday. ETHBTC is overbought at resistance - underperformance trade stays on. Stablecoin dominance RSI reset below 23.33 on Monday. Check please. DXY hit 100.314 and RSI flipped - dollar may be weakening, which should help stocks. The yen is the real danger: second TBO breakout on Wednesday, confirmed bearish divergence. If it keeps weakening, it tanks everything. VIX back in the rejection zone. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq all still strong bearish. Gold dumped 3% and printed a TBO close long in bearish consolidation - choppy May 2025 replay. Silver has two 4H TBO breakdowns. Copper confirmed a TBO open short. HYPE, Kaspa, QNT, Fartcoin, River all have TBO breakouts - Kaspa the cleanest setup, up 25%. BNB, PEPE, Bonk, and Fluid pulled back to the fast line after TBO close shorts Sunday - that's the entry window. TAO is overbought for day nine with two TBT bearish divergences. Fetch short still open. Pippin down 75% on the week. Merlin down 12% with a TBO breakdown cluster. XRP, Solana, Doge, Render, Trump, Syrup, and Zero all have 4H TBO close longs. Siren up 94% off the springboard bounce. Monero working on a second weekly TBO close long - very bearish. SoFi showing bullish divergence on the daily. Circle pushed above the 0.5 fib - next target $150.88. Western Digital TBO resistance jumped from $294 to $319 - strong bullish.
Aaron Dishner24,611 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад