MTS
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Chronicling the singularity
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FULL INTERVIEW: Jen Kha says El Salvador gave every school free Grok and is deploying AI doctors. She says countries nobody expects are now outpacing America on adoption while America fights over data centers. Jen Kha is a managing partner and head of global partnerships at a16z. She joined Theo Jaffee and sophia dew on announcement day for the $1.1B Machine Age Fund to walk through the thesis and break down why the physical layer under AI was uninvestable for 30 years and isn't anymore: 00:38 why the timing of this fund says everything about the cycle 02:40 following the nerd energy 02:59 software's eating the world, but AI already solved software 04:44 23% of all venture capital this year 06:09 SpaceX public, Anthropic and OpenAI next, and what that does to LPs 07:36 the partner who said they'd deploy the whole fund in six weeks 10:01 the president of Korea's first and only US stop was Silicon Valley 10:15 NVIDIA is bigger than every G7 country except the US 12:27 South Korea, El Salvador and the countries adopting AI faster than America 14:33 why she thinks the data center narrative got ahead of reality 16:31 under 2% of US electricians are trained on DC power 17:45 agents now use 5x the tokens humans do 19:24 why these founders are a throwback, and where they're spinning out from
MTS4,387,683 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Crucible Capital founder Meltem Demirors reveals how she financed her own GPU cluster with stablecoin debt and personal credit risk because she refused to sit out the AI boom: "We're a no-name operator. They're like, who are these two women building compute? Their perception's like, who's this crypto lady?" "We got debt from USDAI, which is a protocol that crowdsources capital through stablecoins, and the GPUs back the loans. We also took on some personal credit risk. I think being levered to the tits is a great way to live." "In the greatest build-out of infrastructure in human history, are you really just gonna sit on the sidelines and tweet? I'm gonna ship some bangers, and I'm gonna take some risks, and if I die, I die." "I'm not gonna sit there and tell my children, during the AI boom I sat back and I tweeted." Crucible Capital
MTS1,161,601 просмотров • 28 дней назад
Google researcher LaurieWired warns the shift from C++ to Python in universities is creating programmers who don't understand how computers actually work: "When I was in college getting my CS degree, my year was one of the last years that was using C++ as the core language for teaching students. Actually they were switching over to Python of all languages." "One of the biggest issues that I have is that a lot of these higher level languages are really abstracting away what is happening under the hood. If you're not aware of how the computers work in general, then you're gonna have problems when it comes to debugging." "Starting with a language like C++ gives you the ability to do these really high level abstractions, but it also gives you the ability to customize your memory management and get really close to the underlying machine. Especially if you're trying to work in high performance computing, game development, or high frequency trading." "At C++ conferences, there's almost this fundamental anger response when it comes to mentioning something like C or C++. People start complaining about the complexity of it." Google
MTS1,891,082 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Ex-OpenAI researcher Scott Aaronson admits AI one-shotted open problems from his 25-year-old papers, while accelerating the atrophy of his own mathematical skills: “This summer I fed in some of the open problems from my papers 25 years ago, and just boom, boom, boom. It solved them in a one-shot way." "These are problems that probably I could have solved if I had spent enough time, more like 100 hours at the least. But these days I don’t really get contiguous hours to think." "AI accelerates the atrophying of my own skills. If it’s something you could work out in some hours, but GPT can just work it out for you right now, that is very tempting to do, and I often do it." UT Austin
MTS119,705 просмотров • 7 дней назад
Notion AI lead Sarah Sachs argues that a lot of what runs on GPUs today should actually run on CPUs: "We have a strong perspective at Notion that a lot of things should be served on CPU that are served on GPU. There’s a lot of benefit and determinism in executed code." "Agents don’t need LLMs to reinvent that process every time, and that’s super token exhaustive, it’s super slow, and there’s no observability or determinism in it." "Giving the agent a local file system to store local thoughts, to write short Python scripts, that’s really important when there’s so much information. That has been probably one of the most important tools outside of edit and search that our internal agents rely on." Notion
MTS111,227 просмотров • 7 дней назад
Wabi CEO Eugenia Kuyda predicts the next big consumer AI platform will be multiplayer, not another personal AI agent: "Today most AI products are single player, and you could argue they don’t have much of a moat. They don’t have switching costs. It was pretty easy to move between Claude and ChatGPT, but at least they had some memory about me." "With these single player agents, it’s so easy to jump between them because all the context is in my Gmail." "In a year, one of the biggest consumer AI platforms will be multiplayer and will have network effects in it. Right now we just sort of agree that single player is the way to go for most AI products." "A year from now we’ll look back at it as the early innings, and the products that will win will have network effects and will be focused on you talking to other people, not just AI." wabi
MTS44,518 просмотров • 4 дней назад
FULL INTERVIEW: Nick Bostrom says a long pause on AI could cost more lives than it saves. If superintelligence can cure aging, every year of waiting has a death toll. In his words, "we are just dying in the meantime." Nick Bostrom founded Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute and wrote Superintelligence and Deep Utopia. He joined Theo Jaffee and sof 𓋹 to break down AI consciousness, why a badly done pause could backfire, and why we've only explored the janitor's closet of what minds can be: 01:17 Trump calling AI superintelligence 05:16 the Hugging Face incident and instrumental convergence 08:28 why the AI company is the first target for a misaligned AI 09:31 catching a schemer before it learns to hide 11:06 why AI timing is like surgery for a terminal condition 19:00 why he's wary of pausing AI 25:33 why the US sits at the negative extreme on AI 27:09 apes, bananas, and the janitor's closet 31:13 where he disagrees with Robin Hanson's Age of Em 33:39 whether current models are conscious 37:12 why humans are barely conscious 39:56 open source models and DNA synthesis as the choke point 43:05 what COVID teaches about pauses 46:28 why AI can't do original philosophy yet 49:37 building a superintelligence that's a good cosmic citizen
MTS150,007 просмотров • 15 дней назад
Dr. Mike Israetel on the economic fallacy he says explains why AI won't cause mass unemployment: "Once we have 4 billion robots doing labor in the world, which we're like orders of magnitude off of that currently, then we've just only doubled the human workforce." "From 1700 to today, we've 10 or 20x'd the human labor force. And, seemingly, the economy's not like, ah, we don't need any more people, that's enough. We could just consistently have better jobs and pay people even more money." "This idea that robots are gonna show up and all of a sudden we're all completely unemployed makes a technical fallacy in economics called lump of labor fallacy. It's the idea that all the jobs currently are the only jobs that could be." "Imagine in 1750, you're like, well, 98% of us work in farming, and then you come back from the future and you're like, you guys, 2% of people in the 1990s work in farming. It'd be like, so everyone's starving to death? Like, no, no, we're super fat, actually." Dr. Mike Israetel
MTS1,076,483 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
SITUATION EXPLAINED: OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol helped find a critical vulnerability hidden in PHP for 14 years, and PHP runs about 70% of websites. • "PHP2Shell" is 2 critical bugs that let attackers run any code on a web server without logging in • Security firm Calif found it in August through OpenAI's "Patch the Planet," and a coalition spent 2 months on fixes before a leak forced an early patch • The NSA, the FBI, and Japan's prime minister all told sites to patch, or go offline if they can't • Normal users just need good habits: a password manager and an authenticator app instead of SMS codes, which SIM swaps can hijack • OpenAI calls it the tip of the iceberg, expects findings to "increase sharply," and committed $1B in subsidized cyber-model access for defenders • Even so, the share of US adults hit by cyber incidents hasn't risen since Fable launched Theo Jaffee: "So for now at least, AI is helping with cyber defense just as much as it's helping with cyber offense. This might not remain the case forever. I don't want to lure people into a totally blindly optimistic state of false security, but it's also not true that things in the cyber world are as bad as were predicted a few months ago."
MTS23,404 просмотров • 2 дней назад
.Curtis Yarvin predicts the future belongs to invite-only social networks because the open internet destroyed reputation: "I think the future entirely belongs to invite-only social networks. An open space with no reputation system, you get what we called Eternal September 30 years ago. Low-quality people flood in, and all the high-quality people leave." "Everything in the world happens on little group chats now. There's a huge amount of reputation capital that's locked up in who's in what group chat." "There's only four billion names. Having a limited supply of identity and having to lay down a couple of bucks to get in the door greatly reduces the bot problem." "The internet has become an incredibly low-trust society with no reputation signals, and creating a new commons is gonna be incredibly hard." Urbit
MTS216,514 просмотров • 28 дней назад
Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck breaks the entire space industry into 3 simple layers, from rockets to the services we use every day: "I probably shouldn't have called it Rocket Lab. I should have called it Space Lab. The rocket always steals the show because it's this big roaring stick in the sky." "Rockets, that's about a $10 or $20 billion industry. Spacecraft, the tools in space to provide services, 20 to $30 billion. And then the reason why you do all of those things are applications in space." "Space is kinda weird that it's hidden infrastructure. You don't drive past it every day, so you don't see it. But everybody interfaces with space every single day, whether you realize it or not." "We build rockets, we build satellites, and with our acquisition of Iridium, we're also a services company from space." Rocket Lab
MTS245,668 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
FULL INTERVIEW: Ramez Naam says AI's self-improvement loop is 5 to 10 times too weak to take off on its own, even with no humans in the loop. OpenAI researchers used 124x more tokens per person and ran just 1.6x more experiments. He says the labs' own data doesn't match what their leaders are claiming. Ramez Naam, founder and managing partner of Planetary VC, made the case on Noahpinion that the intelligence explosion isn't close yet. He joined Theo Jaffee and sof 𓋹 to lay out the numbers behind it: 00:58 where's the intelligence explosion 03:08 124x more tokens, 7x more code, 1.6x more experiments 03:54 what a self-sustaining loop would actually take 05:11 why the labs' claims don't match their own system cards 09:48 AI capex vs big tech's free cash flow 11:20 why AI revenue growth will likely slow 14:03 why hyper-persuasion might not be possible 15:21 a teenager's 1,000 miles vs Waymo's 10 million 16:39 the math result that could break the loop open 18:28 why TasteVal doesn't measure real research taste 23:11 the one AI regulation he wants 24:39 why agent swarms have the worst scaling we've seen 27:24 Opus 5.5 stalling at 10 agents, and Columbus, Ohio vs Einstein
MTS92,580 просмотров • 13 дней назад
.Benjamin Bratton argues Yudkowsky misunderstands evolution, and explains why AI may never converge into one giant superintelligence: "Without being too spicy, I don't think Yudkowsky really understands evolution as well as he thinks he does." "It’s a very low-resolution understanding of evolutionary dynamics applied to what will inevitably be a much more complex problem." "There will be giant models, in the same way you might imagine scales of species in a rainforest. They’re not all operating at the same spatial and temporal scale." "Whether this all collapses into one giant brain, sure, it’s possible, and the reasons may have more to do with economics and politics." "But biology has never arrived at a solution where it’s going to make one giant instantiation of a particular form of mind and consolidate everything together."
MTS18,376 просмотров • 2 дней назад
FULL INTERVIEW: The Economist's Callum Williams says only about 25% of American businesses use AI four years in, when most people in 2023 would have bet on nearly all of them. Ask CFOs what AI has done for their bottom line, and he says it "basically balances to zero." Callum Williams is the senior economics writer at The Economist. He joined Theo Jaffee and sof 𓋹 to lay out why AI hasn't changed the economy yet and the signal he's watching for: 00:50 why AI hasn't changed the economy yet 01:38 why AI spread slower than the internet in business 03:05 why a laptop and ChatGPT isn't enough 04:20 the CFO surveys where AI's impact balances to zero 04:49 why cost will decide how fast AI spreads 06:11 the 25% stat, and the labor market signal he's watching 08:30 whether AI layoffs are real or just an excuse 09:43 robot McDonald's vs a fast food labor shortage 10:28 the COVID robot predictions nobody apologized for 11:55 the economic doom predictions that did come true
MTS75,218 просмотров • 12 дней назад
Were you thinking “I wish I could explore the OpenAI math repo like playing Breath of the Wild?”
MTS98,823 просмотров • 16 дней назад
SITUATION EXPLAINED: A stealth model on OpenRouter is beating Fable and Sol on coding, and nobody knows who made it. • Ox Alpha has a 1M token context window, text, image, and video input, free for a week, with capacity for 100 trillion tokens a day • On a DeepSWE subset it hit 80%, against Fable's 65%, GLM-5.3's 62%, and Sol's 52% • The tokenizer is one-for-one identical to GLM's, and a live test asking whether Taiwan is part of China returned a nearly identical answer • This is the 5th anonymous drop in six months, and the previous four were all claimed by Chinese labs: Zhipu, Xiaomi, Ant, and Meituan Theo Jaffee: " There's no way it's a Flash model. If that's a Flash model, then holy shit, the entire United States is cooked. If that's a Flash model, we need to short the stock market now. Not financial advice."
MTS382,558 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Google AI researcher Benjamin Bratton on why AI is causing humanity's next identity crisis: A new “Copernican trauma” that forces us to rethink what it means to be human. "A lot of the anxiety about AI right now is an example of what I call a Copernican trauma. These moments in history where we figure out that we’re not the center of the system that we thought we were." "Heliocentrism was a Copernican trauma. Darwinism was a Copernican trauma. Neuroscience has been a Copernican trauma, that thinking is just a physiological process." "The artificialization of intelligence is forcing a redefinition of what intelligence and mind is in the first place." "The biggest news of what’s going on right now may in fact be epistemological and ontological rather than just technological. I think it’s gonna be a very bumpy road."
MTS16,202 просмотров • 2 дней назад
.sophia dew says radiology is proof AI can transform jobs instead of eliminating them. Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 says the transition is happening far too fast for that story to hold: Sophia: "I am an optimist because of all of your fears that you say. There are certain things that we should do to mitigate all the harms that AI will cause." "Most people think one day robots are going to come in and all the jobs are going to leave, but what actually ends up happening is a slow transition where the jobs transform and re-augment in ways where the human has to do more human type of work." "Everyone thought AI would get rid of all the radiologists. There's more demand for radiology, but the job of a radiologist now is way more human." Andrew Yang: "I'm now 50 years old, which means if I don't get dumber in a given month, it was a good month. Meanwhile, the models will get twice as smart that month." "Block fired 4,000 out of 10,000. Oracle laid off 30,000 workers and said, we're doing it to invest in AI. This is not a multi-year transition. This is like a hey, sorry, we don't need you anymore." Jubilee
MTS151,320 просмотров • 26 дней назад
Taylor Lorenz on the data center backlash: "I went on Eric Newcomer's podcast recently, because I'm in this community group in LA, and they found out that there's a data center in downtown LA. It's not a hyperscale. The comments are like, this is why I've been feeling off, or my dog has cancer." "That's not to say that there aren't serious environmental concerns with Colossus and some of these. Construction can disrupt the water table. Okay, but let's have an actual conversation about it." "Everybody has lost the plot. There's no nuance, and if you talk to a lot of these people, they can't even explain what a data center is." "A lot of the outrage about the data centers is coming from people that live in Brooklyn. You're feeding people slop and chum, and you're not moving these issues forward, and we're not talking about sustainable ways to build it." Taylor Lorenz Taylor Lorenz
MTS536,848 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад