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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb • 1,156,090 subscribers

Flaneur: probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (real life),Phoenician wine, deadlifts & dead languages. Greco-Levantine.Canaan. #RWRI

Shorts

And of course, I forget.

And of course, I forget.

131,315 Aufrufe

Happy new year!

Happy new year!

109,858 Aufrufe

ChatGPT is hilarious. I am trying to practice Italian by talking to it, but when it comes to the pronunciation of English sentences (while speaking Italian) it has the thick accent of someone who never left Sorrento. "Bit by bit".

ChatGPT is hilarious. I am trying to practice Italian by talking to it, but when it comes to the pronunciation of English sentences (while speaking Italian) it has the thick accent of someone who never left Sorrento. "Bit by bit".

121,621 Aufrufe

Videos

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The problem with "Voldemort" Sehnaoui (the flamboyant Lebanese Ponzi Banker) is that he is no Voldemort. He is just stupid, very stupid & very fragile.

The problem with "Voldemort" Sehnaoui (the flamboyant Lebanese Ponzi Banker) is that he is no Voldemort. He is just stupid, very stupid & very fragile.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

475,596 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Friends, the problem of statistics is that even if they worked (they don't), whatever is derived statistically ONLY applies to groups never to single individuals. You are not hiring a subcontinent, but a single individual. Variance determines the max.

Friends, the problem of statistics is that even if they worked (they don't), whatever is derived statistically ONLY applies to groups never to single individuals. You are not hiring a subcontinent, but a single individual. Variance determines the max.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

196,167 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

يا مهابيل يا غفلة يا حمقى مسيحية لبنان

يا مهابيل يا غفلة يا حمقى مسيحية لبنان

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

621,411 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions.

Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

245,358 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress). Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures. On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel). Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Bil is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).

Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress). Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures. On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel). Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Bil is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

657,797 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

To sum up: Charles Murray is not a scholar; he is not a scientist; and he is not a gentleman.

To sum up: Charles Murray is not a scholar; he is not a scientist; and he is not a gentleman.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

178,617 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

From a near-empty Paris café (on the Place de la Sorbonne) on a Sunday morning: a teaser (in French) of the frth. conversation w/David Bessis on errors with IQ, asymmetries, & other bullshit by social "scientists". A Zoom-style conversation (in English) to follow.

From a near-empty Paris café (on the Place de la Sorbonne) on a Sunday morning: a teaser (in French) of the frth. conversation w/David Bessis on errors with IQ, asymmetries, & other bullshit by social "scientists". A Zoom-style conversation (in English) to follow.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

179,122 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Maximum Ignorance Probability: What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? Surgeon did 60 operations & 0 failure. What's the failure rate? I realized the trick wasn't in the literature when someone wrote a paper in SPL on my blog post.

Maximum Ignorance Probability: What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? Surgeon did 60 operations & 0 failure. What's the failure rate? I realized the trick wasn't in the literature when someone wrote a paper in SPL on my blog post.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

235,654 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

XRISTOS ANESTI from Amioun. The holy fire came from Jerusalem's Holy Sepulture, doors opened courtesy of the Nusaineh ⁦Ghanem Nuseibeh⁩ family. المسيح قام

XRISTOS ANESTI from Amioun. The holy fire came from Jerusalem's Holy Sepulture, doors opened courtesy of the Nusaineh ⁦Ghanem Nuseibeh⁩ family. المسيح قام

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

193,516 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Berkson's Paradox: the video. I apologize to those who will complain about video quality (or other stuff lacking substance) as they will be blocked.

Berkson's Paradox: the video. I apologize to those who will complain about video quality (or other stuff lacking substance) as they will be blocked.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

233,715 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

How ChatGPT answers questions when it has no idea about the answer.

How ChatGPT answers questions when it has no idea about the answer.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

157,034 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Thanks Sonali Basak for the discussion on "bullishness" and "bearishness".

Thanks Sonali Basak for the discussion on "bullishness" and "bearishness".

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

95,618 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

FED UP with the common misconception that tail risk hedging means bearishness. First order effect ≠ Higher order effects. Good job Brandon.

FED UP with the common misconception that tail risk hedging means bearishness. First order effect ≠ Higher order effects. Good job Brandon.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

86,897 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Trishank Karthik Kuppusamy I tried Akkadian here. Can try Gilgamesh

Trishank Karthik Kuppusamy I tried Akkadian here. Can try Gilgamesh

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

13,066 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

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