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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb • 1,149,829 subscribers

Flaneur: probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (real life),Phoenician wine, deadlifts & dead languages. Greco-Levantine.Canaan. #RWRI

Shorts

And of course, I forget.

And of course, I forget.

131,289 次观看

Happy new year!

Happy new year!

109,505 次观看

ChatGPT is hilarious. I am trying to practice Italian by talking to it, but when it comes to the pronunciation of English sentences (while speaking Italian) it has the thick accent of someone who never left Sorrento. "Bit by bit".

ChatGPT is hilarious. I am trying to practice Italian by talking to it, but when it comes to the pronunciation of English sentences (while speaking Italian) it has the thick accent of someone who never left Sorrento. "Bit by bit".

121,593 次观看

Videos

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Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions.

Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

244,672 次观看 • 3 个月前

To sum up: Charles Murray is not a scholar; he is not a scientist; and he is not a gentleman.

To sum up: Charles Murray is not a scholar; he is not a scientist; and he is not a gentleman.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

178,473 次观看 • 4 个月前

From a near-empty Paris café (on the Place de la Sorbonne) on a Sunday morning: a teaser (in French) of the frth. conversation w/David Bessis on errors with IQ, asymmetries, & other bullshit by social "scientists". A Zoom-style conversation (in English) to follow.

From a near-empty Paris café (on the Place de la Sorbonne) on a Sunday morning: a teaser (in French) of the frth. conversation w/David Bessis on errors with IQ, asymmetries, & other bullshit by social "scientists". A Zoom-style conversation (in English) to follow.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

178,308 次观看 • 4 个月前

Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress). Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures. On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel). Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Bil is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).

Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress). Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures. On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel). Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Bil is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

657,602 次观看 • 2 年前

Trishank Karthik Kuppusamy I tried Akkadian here. Can try Gilgamesh

Trishank Karthik Kuppusamy I tried Akkadian here. Can try Gilgamesh

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

13,037 次观看 • 22 天前

Maximum Ignorance Probability: What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? Surgeon did 60 operations & 0 failure. What's the failure rate? I realized the trick wasn't in the literature when someone wrote a paper in SPL on my blog post.

Maximum Ignorance Probability: What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? Surgeon did 60 operations & 0 failure. What's the failure rate? I realized the trick wasn't in the literature when someone wrote a paper in SPL on my blog post.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

235,091 次观看 • 2 年前

How ChatGPT answers questions when it has no idea about the answer.

How ChatGPT answers questions when it has no idea about the answer.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

156,920 次观看 • 1 年前

With Albert Kostanian on Lebanese TV about the US Treasury Secretary claiming markets are antifragile: I cite Riad Ponzi's famous statement: " الليرة بألف خير !"

With Albert Kostanian on Lebanese TV about the US Treasury Secretary claiming markets are antifragile: I cite Riad Ponzi's famous statement: " الليرة بألف خير !"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

88,059 次观看 • 1 年前

FED UP with the common misconception that tail risk hedging means bearishness. First order effect ≠ Higher order effects. Good job Brandon.

FED UP with the common misconception that tail risk hedging means bearishness. First order effect ≠ Higher order effects. Good job Brandon.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

86,683 次观看 • 1 年前

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