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A 263-year-old formula is still making people millions on Polymarket Back in 1763, Thomas Bayes described how probabilities should change when new information arrives Most traders still don't do that swisstony does He starts with the market price as his prior, measures how much a new event should change the odds, then updates his probability before everyone else The result +$22.3M in profit $1.2M biggest win And multiple positions worth $500K to $1M where he correctly bet against the favorite That's what this strategy is really about Not predicting the future Updating probabilities faster than the crowd