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A 263-year-old formula is still making people millions on Polymarket Back in 1763, Thomas Bayes described how probabilities should change when new information arrives Most traders still don't do that swisstony does He starts with the market price as his prior, measures how much a new event should change... show more

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14,307 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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How the 15-min BTC bot hits 90% win rate. I tracked one trade from the moment a new window opened. BTC moves on spot. Binance, Coinbase, wherever. The price shifts. But Polymarket odds take a few seconds to catch up. That gap is the whole game. He watches spot. Sees momentum. Enters the side that should win while Polymarket still shows old numbers. By the time the window closes, the lag is gone. Odds corrected. He collected. Buys in cheap. Gets paid full price. Rinse and repeat. The bot does not care where BTC is going tomorrow. It only cares what happened five seconds ago that Polymarket has not priced in yet. Profile: People keep asking where the edge is. It is not hidden. It is just faster than you.

Blaze

178,845 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Elon Musk: "There's a very high probability we're living in a simulation." In a conversation with Nikhil Kamath, Musk explained how video games evolved from Pong to photorealistic worlds with millions of players in just 50 years. He noted that if this trend continues, games will soon be indistinguishable from reality with intelligent characters. "So then what are the odds that we are in base reality? And that this has not happened before." Musk added that we should think of this as probabilities, not certainties, and shared his theory that "The most interesting outcome is the most likely outcome as seen by a third party, the gods of the simulation."

Elon Musk: "There's a very high probability we're living in a simulation." In a conversation with Nikhil Kamath, Musk explained how video games evolved from Pong to photorealistic worlds with millions of players in just 50 years. He noted that if this trend continues, games will soon be indistinguishable from reality with intelligent characters. "So then what are the odds that we are in base reality? And that this has not happened before." Musk added that we should think of this as probabilities, not certainties, and shared his theory that "The most interesting outcome is the most likely outcome as seen by a third party, the gods of the simulation."

Interstellar

48,199 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Most traders still think the edge is the entry. It’s not. Today both probability models aligned with the same objective BEFORE price even got there. London Probability Map: 73.5% probability to sweep the LOW first. Price delivered exactly there. New York Probability Map: 72.8% probability to sweep the LOW first. Another textbook A+ setup. Another delivery. Trade entry in both cases? Basic ICT iFVG execution in the direction of the more probable side. That’s the part most traders miss. The iFVG is not the edge. The probabilities are. When you already know where price is statistically more likely to go first… execution becomes calmer, cleaner and far less emotional. Would your trading change if you started every session already knowing where the odds were leaning first? #NQ #ICT

Most traders still think the edge is the entry. It’s not. Today both probability models aligned with the same objective BEFORE price even got there. London Probability Map: 73.5% probability to sweep the LOW first. Price delivered exactly there. New York Probability Map: 72.8% probability to sweep the LOW first. Another textbook A+ setup. Another delivery. Trade entry in both cases? Basic ICT iFVG execution in the direction of the more probable side. That’s the part most traders miss. The iFVG is not the edge. The probabilities are. When you already know where price is statistically more likely to go first… execution becomes calmer, cleaner and far less emotional. Would your trading change if you started every session already knowing where the odds were leaning first? #NQ #ICT

Herman Trading

14,145 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

It's just amazing this bro bet $4.82 on Mexico losing and won $1832 Mexico won but polymarket is not about the outcome of the event but about what price you bought the bet at and how much you sold it for His best trades: $4.82 > $1832 $13.77 > $1104 $101 > $2297 His profile: And all because he places limit orders to buy at a price of up to 1 cent for small amounts. This story is not about an insider or the successful success of a polymarket trader - he also has losing positions but the result in a month is +75k This is about smart moves, risk reward strategy and more.

PS

93,194 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$799 → $64K BY TRADING THE WEATHER ON POLYMARKET reading more about probability, EV and how markets misprice events… > and then you open Polymarket and see traders like this > started with about $799 > now +$64K profit > ~80% win rate > #1 in the world in Daily Temperature markets his strategy is extremely simple: > sell extreme weather outcomes the market overprices > he buys NO at $0.93-0.99 on unlikely temperature ranges > across multiple cities every day small positions → constant repetition → pure compounding a perfect real-world example of what the article talks about: > find small edges > size correctly > repeat thousands of times study his wallet: > or copytrade wallets like this:

$799 → $64K BY TRADING THE WEATHER ON POLYMARKET reading more about probability, EV and how markets misprice events… > and then you open Polymarket and see traders like this > started with about $799 > now +$64K profit > ~80% win rate > #1 in the world in Daily Temperature markets his strategy is extremely simple: > sell extreme weather outcomes the market overprices > he buys NO at $0.93-0.99 on unlikely temperature ranges > across multiple cities every day small positions → constant repetition → pure compounding a perfect real-world example of what the article talks about: > find small edges > size correctly > repeat thousands of times study his wallet: > or copytrade wallets like this:

Mr. Buzzoni

14,839 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

A trader reportedly turned $200 into nearly $700K in 48 hours with a Claude-powered system almost nobody understands yet. No indicators. No influencers. No guessing. The bot runs thousands of simulations before it even touches a trade. That’s why this market is changing fast. Most traders still stare at candles hoping for a setup… while others are already running probability models against the market before price even moves. Copy: One guy copied the framework and reportedly made ~$19K in a few weeks. The scary part? The edge is no longer prediction. It’s whoever processes probabilities faster than everyone else.

A trader reportedly turned $200 into nearly $700K in 48 hours with a Claude-powered system almost nobody understands yet. No indicators. No influencers. No guessing. The bot runs thousands of simulations before it even touches a trade. That’s why this market is changing fast. Most traders still stare at candles hoping for a setup… while others are already running probability models against the market before price even moves. Copy: One guy copied the framework and reportedly made ~$19K in a few weeks. The scary part? The edge is no longer prediction. It’s whoever processes probabilities faster than everyone else.

Phantom_Defi

17,127 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

This trader made $50,000 on Polymarket using this simple strategy: He trades CS2/LoL markets and looks for mispricing using his own model. When he finds undervalued outcomes on Polymarket, he buys them with limit orders His strategy is simple: > Enters positions in the 0.45-0.65 range > Average trade size is $1,307 > Buys markets that the market prices as a coinflip, but his model gives a higher probability His Polymarket account: Mobile app for copy trading: Using this strategy, he has a 59% win rate and consistently grows his capital

VALIX

11,775 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Anthropic released an update for Claude, and one young guy turned $1,400 into $238,000 in 11 days His account is 0xdE17. He is not a trader. Not a developer. Just a student with a laptop and access to Claude. When Anthropic updated the skills architecture for Claude, he didn’t sleep for two nights, read the documentation, and built a bot from scratch. Result: $1,430 → $238,006 in 11 days 366 trades. Win rate 62%. The biggest win $52,700 on a single bet. How it works: The bot scans Polymarket every few seconds looking for markets where the price deviates from the fair value by more than 8%. That’s the edge. Most people don’t see it the bot always does. The strategy is painfully simple - The market says 30¢ for an event - The real probability based on data is 55¢ - The bot enters. Waits. Exits at the peak. This isn’t luck. It’s attention arbitrage. The biggest trade was a bet that Trump would sign a crypto executive order in March. The market priced it at 28¢. The bot placed $16,000. Exited at 81¢. In 11 days he went through a journey most traders don’t go through in years. Now his wallet is public, and with the help of this terminal you will be able to copy his trades in time: Bot 0xdE17 CLAWD BTC SNIPER is open for copy-trade. People ask him: “How much starting capital do you need?” He replied: “I had $1,400 and a sleepless night.” Anthropic gave the tool. He simply wasn’t afraid to use it.

Anthropic released an update for Claude, and one young guy turned $1,400 into $238,000 in 11 days His account is 0xdE17. He is not a trader. Not a developer. Just a student with a laptop and access to Claude. When Anthropic updated the skills architecture for Claude, he didn’t sleep for two nights, read the documentation, and built a bot from scratch. Result: $1,430 → $238,006 in 11 days 366 trades. Win rate 62%. The biggest win $52,700 on a single bet. How it works: The bot scans Polymarket every few seconds looking for markets where the price deviates from the fair value by more than 8%. That’s the edge. Most people don’t see it the bot always does. The strategy is painfully simple - The market says 30¢ for an event - The real probability based on data is 55¢ - The bot enters. Waits. Exits at the peak. This isn’t luck. It’s attention arbitrage. The biggest trade was a bet that Trump would sign a crypto executive order in March. The market priced it at 28¢. The bot placed $16,000. Exited at 81¢. In 11 days he went through a journey most traders don’t go through in years. Now his wallet is public, and with the help of this terminal you will be able to copy his trades in time: Bot 0xdE17 CLAWD BTC SNIPER is open for copy-trade. People ask him: “How much starting capital do you need?” He replied: “I had $1,400 and a sleepless night.” Anthropic gave the tool. He simply wasn’t afraid to use it.

AdiiX

1,765,913 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Elon Musk on learning physics: What matters are not the formulas, but the thinking process that led to the discovery of those formulas. “I just recommend studying physics. What matters is not remembering a bunch of formulas. What matters is the thinking process that led to the discovery of those formulas. It's sort of critical thinking, first principles analysis, trying to understand what is true at a most fundamental level and then reasoning up from there and testing your conclusions against the most fundamental truths in any given arena. This is how you can figure out whether something is more likely to be true or not. It's good to think in terms of probabilities. If you receive information about a subject, that should change the probability of your conclusion, but not the certainty of your conclusion. Physics teaches you that you should not be 100% certain about any given prediction. Now, there's some things that are highly likely, but physics teaches you you got to assign a probability to something being true. And then as you learn more information, your original conclusion may be wrong, then you should then change your mind based on the new information.” Town Hall in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, October 24, 2024

Elon Musk on learning physics: What matters are not the formulas, but the thinking process that led to the discovery of those formulas. “I just recommend studying physics. What matters is not remembering a bunch of formulas. What matters is the thinking process that led to the discovery of those formulas. It's sort of critical thinking, first principles analysis, trying to understand what is true at a most fundamental level and then reasoning up from there and testing your conclusions against the most fundamental truths in any given arena. This is how you can figure out whether something is more likely to be true or not. It's good to think in terms of probabilities. If you receive information about a subject, that should change the probability of your conclusion, but not the certainty of your conclusion. Physics teaches you that you should not be 100% certain about any given prediction. Now, there's some things that are highly likely, but physics teaches you you got to assign a probability to something being true. And then as you learn more information, your original conclusion may be wrong, then you should then change your mind based on the new information.” Town Hall in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, October 24, 2024

ELON CLIPS

67,501 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Gambler lost a penthouse in LA on Polymarket What do you know about pain bro? Just look at this guy Minus $8,304,241... That’s roughly the price of a penthouse in Los Angeles Check: He registered on Polymarket in Dec 2025 And hasn’t seen a single green day since Not one... He’s still trading, still trying to win it back But it only gets worse Sports markets are the most dangerous ones You either know what you’re doing Or you’re just exit liquidity for someone who does At this point the question is simple: Maybe the best strategy is to bet against him?

Gambler lost a penthouse in LA on Polymarket What do you know about pain bro? Just look at this guy Minus $8,304,241... That’s roughly the price of a penthouse in Los Angeles Check: He registered on Polymarket in Dec 2025 And hasn’t seen a single green day since Not one... He’s still trading, still trying to win it back But it only gets worse Sports markets are the most dangerous ones You either know what you’re doing Or you’re just exit liquidity for someone who does At this point the question is simple: Maybe the best strategy is to bet against him?

Goaty

13,603 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Anthropic released an update for Claude, and one student turned $1,400 into $238,000 in 11 days. His wallet: 0xdE17 He’s not a trader. Not a developer. Just a student with a laptop and access to Claude. When Anthropic updated Claude’s skills architecture, he spent two nights reading the documentation and built a bot from scratch. The result: $1,430 → $238,006 in 11 days 366 trades 62% win rate Largest single win: $52,700 How it works: The bot scans Polymarket every few seconds looking for markets where the price deviates from fair value by more than 8%. That’s the edge. Most people never notice it. The bot always does. The strategy is simple: The market prices an event at 30¢ The real probability based on data is closer to 55¢ The bot enters, waits, and exits as the market reprices It’s not luck. It’s attention arbitrage. The biggest trade was a bet that Trump would sign a crypto executive order in March. The market priced it at 28¢. The bot entered with $16,000. Exited at 81¢. In 11 days, he went through a journey most traders never experience in years. Now the wallet is public, and with this terminal you can copy the trades in real time: 0xde17f7144fbd0eddb2679132c10ff5e74b120988 Copytrade → People keep asking him: “How much starting capital do you need?” He answered: “I had $1,400 and a sleepless night.” Anthropic built the tool. He simply wasn’t afraid to use it.

Anthropic released an update for Claude, and one student turned $1,400 into $238,000 in 11 days. His wallet: 0xdE17 He’s not a trader. Not a developer. Just a student with a laptop and access to Claude. When Anthropic updated Claude’s skills architecture, he spent two nights reading the documentation and built a bot from scratch. The result: $1,430 → $238,006 in 11 days 366 trades 62% win rate Largest single win: $52,700 How it works: The bot scans Polymarket every few seconds looking for markets where the price deviates from fair value by more than 8%. That’s the edge. Most people never notice it. The bot always does. The strategy is simple: The market prices an event at 30¢ The real probability based on data is closer to 55¢ The bot enters, waits, and exits as the market reprices It’s not luck. It’s attention arbitrage. The biggest trade was a bet that Trump would sign a crypto executive order in March. The market priced it at 28¢. The bot entered with $16,000. Exited at 81¢. In 11 days, he went through a journey most traders never experience in years. Now the wallet is public, and with this terminal you can copy the trades in real time: 0xde17f7144fbd0eddb2679132c10ff5e74b120988 Copytrade → People keep asking him: “How much starting capital do you need?” He answered: “I had $1,400 and a sleepless night.” Anthropic built the tool. He simply wasn’t afraid to use it.

Discover

114,291 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

The ability to change your views/thoughts as new information comes to the surface is tough. Mad respect here to Prof Noc for changing how he views the Retrio project and being open minded to what it is or what it could be. This is healthy theorycrafting and how it should be, not hivemind mentality recycling the same thing with slightly different words. Watching this vid really got me thinking on the problems with theories in this fandom and how people view the Retrio. I'll just do a small thread 🧵⤵️

The ability to change your views/thoughts as new information comes to the surface is tough. Mad respect here to Prof Noc for changing how he views the Retrio project and being open minded to what it is or what it could be. This is healthy theorycrafting and how it should be, not hivemind mentality recycling the same thing with slightly different words. Watching this vid really got me thinking on the problems with theories in this fandom and how people view the Retrio. I'll just do a small thread 🧵⤵️

mlwjrpg

27,859 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Tim Cook on what he learned from Steve Jobs: 1. Steve was focused on products, products, products. not the stock price, not the org chart. everything came back to what you were actually making. 2. he taught me that making things simple is far harder than making them complex. anyone can add. the real work is stripping something down. 3. the biggest products came from the smallest teams. the first ipod team was tiny. the iphone team was tiny. small teams can do amazing things. 4. hire people who challenge you. surround yourself with people who have skills you don't have. then be confident enough to actually want that. 5. don't get married to your past views. steve could change his mind in an instant when new evidence showed up. most people can't do it, because their pride won't let them. 6. he loved to debate. he wanted you to push back. you could always change his mind if you had the better idea, and he'd change yours. that's why it worked. 7. i was taken aback by how fast he could switch positions. then i became enamored with it. very few people have that skill.

Tim Cook on what he learned from Steve Jobs: 1. Steve was focused on products, products, products. not the stock price, not the org chart. everything came back to what you were actually making. 2. he taught me that making things simple is far harder than making them complex. anyone can add. the real work is stripping something down. 3. the biggest products came from the smallest teams. the first ipod team was tiny. the iphone team was tiny. small teams can do amazing things. 4. hire people who challenge you. surround yourself with people who have skills you don't have. then be confident enough to actually want that. 5. don't get married to your past views. steve could change his mind in an instant when new evidence showed up. most people can't do it, because their pride won't let them. 6. he loved to debate. he wanted you to push back. you could always change his mind if you had the better idea, and he'd change yours. that's why it worked. 7. i was taken aback by how fast he could switch positions. then i became enamored with it. very few people have that skill.

Naruto

48,125 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Someone on Polymarket betting on 46 out of 48 teams to win the 2026 World Cup. Every nation. Except France and Belgium. Max payout: $4,370,000. Current drawdown: -$84,800. Profile: This isn’t fan loyalty. It isn’t gambling. It’s something most traders never even consider: He’s not predicting who wins. He’s predicting who doesn’t. Here’s the logic behind a $4M World Cup arbitrage: 1. The market thinks France or Belgium will win. When you sweep 46 teams and skip 2, you’re making a single concentrated bet: that neither France nor Belgium will lift the trophy. The combined implied probability of those two winning is high enough that Polymarket prices the other 46 cheap. Cheap enough that buying all of them costs less than what one of them pays out if it wins. 2. It’s a reverse parlay and the math is brutal. Most bettors think “pick the winner.” This trader thinks “eliminate the favorite.” If France and Belgium both fail to win and 46 other nations are still in play one of them takes the trophy and his entire portfolio resolves to $4.37M. He doesn’t need to know which of the 46. He just needs the two favorites to lose. 3. The drawdown is the entry fee. -$84K sounds catastrophic. It isn’t. It’s the cost of building a position with $4M ceiling. As the tournament progresses and France or Belgium look weaker, the prices on the remaining 46 nations rise. The drawdown shrinks. By the semifinals, if the favorites are out, his position is worth millions before the final is even played. 4. He only loses if the market is right. This is the part most retail traders miss: the trader doesn’t need to be smart. He needs the crowd to be wrong about France or Belgium. Polymarket’s wisdom of crowds is usually right. But when it’s wrong, it pays 50x. He’s betting that the favorites are overpriced, and if the crowd is correct he loses $84K. If the crowd is wrong even once he makes $4M. That’s not gambling. That’s a contrarian options trade in a sports jersey. The lesson isn’t “fade France and Belgium.” It’s that the biggest payouts on Polymarket come from betting against consensus, not with it. Most traders pick the favorite and hope. This guy bets against the favorite and lets math do the rest. When the crowd is confident, prices on alternatives collapse. That’s exactly when buying them in bulk becomes a trade not a prediction. Fast copytrading TG bot:

AdiiX

203,200 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$280,122 on Polymarket 33,043 predictions in 144 days with a 51% win rate How is this account bringing in about $1,945 per day? The logic is simple: 1. It concentrates on short crypto “Up / Down” markets, averaging about 10 trades per hour 2. Rather than treating every window as a single prediction, the system appears to keep reevaluating the probabilities while the market is still open 3. It can build a directional position first, then use the opposite outcome later to reduce risk or improve the structure when conditions change This trader’s Polymarket account: Most profitable trades: $10,219 → $19,041 (+$8,822 +86.3%) $12,355 → $20,800 (+$8,445 +68.4%) $7,605 → $15,571 (+$7,966 +104.8%) The 51% win rate is only part of the picture. Most of the performance comes from how the system sizes, hedges, and restructures exposure across more than 33,000 entries

This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$280,122 on Polymarket 33,043 predictions in 144 days with a 51% win rate How is this account bringing in about $1,945 per day? The logic is simple: 1. It concentrates on short crypto “Up / Down” markets, averaging about 10 trades per hour 2. Rather than treating every window as a single prediction, the system appears to keep reevaluating the probabilities while the market is still open 3. It can build a directional position first, then use the opposite outcome later to reduce risk or improve the structure when conditions change This trader’s Polymarket account: Most profitable trades: $10,219 → $19,041 (+$8,822 +86.3%) $12,355 → $20,800 (+$8,445 +68.4%) $7,605 → $15,571 (+$7,966 +104.8%) The 51% win rate is only part of the picture. Most of the performance comes from how the system sizes, hedges, and restructures exposure across more than 33,000 entries

Daniro

54,622 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

So when are they gonna tell the story about how unhinged this man really is? It's not just Kat. He does the same shit with the kids. He is the most loving man in the world as long as you're doing what he wants you to do. The moment you don't he snaps like a lunatic #BeyondTheGates

So when are they gonna tell the story about how unhinged this man really is? It's not just Kat. He does the same shit with the kids. He is the most loving man in the world as long as you're doing what he wants you to do. The moment you don't he snaps like a lunatic #BeyondTheGates

jaz

11,211 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

A reporter asked the President of the United States if he was concerned about insider trading on the war in Iran. His answer: “The whole world has become somewhat of a casino.” And then: “It is what it is.” This is not what the Commander-in-Chief should say when traders are making millions on bets placed minutes before American servicemembers go into combat. $580 million in oil futures moved 16 minutes before Trump paused strikes on Iranian power plants. More than 150 Polymarket accounts bet on a US strike the Friday before the war started. Somebody knew. And the President of the United States says it is what it is. Disgraceful.

A reporter asked the President of the United States if he was concerned about insider trading on the war in Iran. His answer: “The whole world has become somewhat of a casino.” And then: “It is what it is.” This is not what the Commander-in-Chief should say when traders are making millions on bets placed minutes before American servicemembers go into combat. $580 million in oil futures moved 16 minutes before Trump paused strikes on Iranian power plants. More than 150 Polymarket accounts bet on a US strike the Friday before the war started. Somebody knew. And the President of the United States says it is what it is. Disgraceful.

Mike Levin

13,205 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$76,091 on Polymarket 31,884 predictions in 116 days with a 55% win rate How is this account bringing in about $656 per day? The logic is simple: 1. It keeps cycling through short crypto “Up / Down” markets at roughly 11 trades per hour 2. The bot appears to reassess the position throughout each window, adding exposure when the probabilities move far enough to create a new opportunity 3. One outcome can be accumulated first, while the opposite side is introduced later to reduce risk or improve the overall structure of the position This trader’s Polymarket account: ohioism Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: Most profitable trades: $2,625 → $4,191 (+$1,566 +59.7%) $701 → $2,115 (+$1,414 +201.7%) $269 → $1,452 (+$1,183 +440.2%) The 55% win rate gives the system a slight directional advantage, while most of the result appears to come from repeatedly rebuilding exposure as probabilities change across more than 31,000 entries

This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$76,091 on Polymarket 31,884 predictions in 116 days with a 55% win rate How is this account bringing in about $656 per day? The logic is simple: 1. It keeps cycling through short crypto “Up / Down” markets at roughly 11 trades per hour 2. The bot appears to reassess the position throughout each window, adding exposure when the probabilities move far enough to create a new opportunity 3. One outcome can be accumulated first, while the opposite side is introduced later to reduce risk or improve the overall structure of the position This trader’s Polymarket account: ohioism Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: Most profitable trades: $2,625 → $4,191 (+$1,566 +59.7%) $701 → $2,115 (+$1,414 +201.7%) $269 → $1,452 (+$1,183 +440.2%) The 55% win rate gives the system a slight directional advantage, while most of the result appears to come from repeatedly rebuilding exposure as probabilities change across more than 31,000 entries

Daniro

40,438 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

HOW IS THIS QUANT BOT MAKING $12,422 PER DAY? +$211,174 in just 17 days. Not by predicting Bitcoin. By exploiting math. Public wallet: Since March 25, the wallet switched to a completely different style. High-frequency market making. Every second it scans for small pricing mistakes. Most traders need a huge move. This bot doesn't. It only needs tiny inefficiencies. Its framework combines three ideas: • Bayesian updates to adjust probabilities before markets fully react • Kelly sizing to determine how aggressively to bet • Stoikov market-making logic to manage inventory and quote risk The result: Find edge. Size correctly. Control risk. Repeat. Thousands of times. Some recent trades: • $8,378 → $34,940 (+317%) • $5,741 → $22,458 (+291%) • $26,446 → $41,749 (+57%) The interesting part? The core edge is surprisingly simple. When: YES + NO < $1 The market is mispriced. Most people ignore it. The bot doesn't. It exploits the gap. Again. And again. And again. That's how a tiny edge becomes a six-figure PnL curve. Bot:

HOW IS THIS QUANT BOT MAKING $12,422 PER DAY? +$211,174 in just 17 days. Not by predicting Bitcoin. By exploiting math. Public wallet: Since March 25, the wallet switched to a completely different style. High-frequency market making. Every second it scans for small pricing mistakes. Most traders need a huge move. This bot doesn't. It only needs tiny inefficiencies. Its framework combines three ideas: • Bayesian updates to adjust probabilities before markets fully react • Kelly sizing to determine how aggressively to bet • Stoikov market-making logic to manage inventory and quote risk The result: Find edge. Size correctly. Control risk. Repeat. Thousands of times. Some recent trades: • $8,378 → $34,940 (+317%) • $5,741 → $22,458 (+291%) • $26,446 → $41,749 (+57%) The interesting part? The core edge is surprisingly simple. When: YES + NO < $1 The market is mispriced. Most people ignore it. The bot doesn't. It exploits the gap. Again. And again. And again. That's how a tiny edge becomes a six-figure PnL curve. Bot:

Discover

12,556 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten