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@Polymarket | Prediction markets @zscdao member Focused on probabilities and information flow.

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This market on Polymarket caught my attention. Only 5 matches have gone to penalties at this World Cup, and there are just 2 games left. Yet the market is still pricing a 32% chance that we'll see at least one more penalty shootout. I think a lot of that comes from the 2022 World Cup final. That game is still fresh in everyone's memory. Personally, I don't think either of the remaining matches goes that far. I'm leaning NO here.

This market on Polymarket caught my attention. Only 5 matches have gone to penalties at this World Cup, and there are just 2 games left. Yet the market is still pricing a 32% chance that we'll see at least one more penalty shootout. I think a lot of that comes from the 2022 World Cup final. That game is still fresh in everyone's memory. Personally, I don't think either of the remaining matches goes that far. I'm leaning NO here.

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A 263-year-old formula is still making people millions on Polymarket Back in 1763, Thomas Bayes described how probabilities should change when new information arrives Most traders still don't do that swisstony does He starts with the market price as his prior, measures how much a new event should change the odds, then updates his probability before everyone else The result +$22.3M in profit $1.2M biggest win And multiple positions worth $500K to $1M where he correctly bet against the favorite That's what this strategy is really about Not predicting the future Updating probabilities faster than the crowd

A 263-year-old formula is still making people millions on Polymarket Back in 1763, Thomas Bayes described how probabilities should change when new information arrives Most traders still don't do that swisstony does He starts with the market price as his prior, measures how much a new event should change the odds, then updates his probability before everyone else The result +$22.3M in profit $1.2M biggest win And multiple positions worth $500K to $1M where he correctly bet against the favorite That's what this strategy is really about Not predicting the future Updating probabilities faster than the crowd

14,077 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

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