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@Polymarket | Prediction markets Focused on probabilities and information flow.

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This market on Polymarket caught my attention. Only 5 matches have gone to penalties at this World Cup, and there are just 2 games left. Yet the market is still pricing a 32% chance that we'll see at least one more penalty shootout. I think a lot of that comes from the 2022 World Cup final. That game is still fresh in everyone's memory. Personally, I don't think either of the remaining matches goes that far. I'm leaning NO here.

This market on Polymarket caught my attention. Only 5 matches have gone to penalties at this World Cup, and there are just 2 games left. Yet the market is still pricing a 32% chance that we'll see at least one more penalty shootout. I think a lot of that comes from the 2022 World Cup final. That game is still fresh in everyone's memory. Personally, I don't think either of the remaining matches goes that far. I'm leaning NO here.

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There’s a free 0.6% just sitting there on Polymarket. The strangest controversy following the 2026 World Cup final 😂 Not the referees. Not an offside call. It was about... a photo. Trump stood alongside the World Cup champions during the trophy ceremony. Millions of people watched it happen live. But later, FIFA and the Spanish Football Federation shared team photos where he was no longer there. Some images were cropped, while others were taken from angles that excluded him. Now the debate isn't whether Trump was standing with the champions. The real question is what exactly counts as the "Champions Photo." To me, the answer is obvious: he appeared in the official trophy ceremony photos with the World Cup winners. That's why I expect this market to resolve YES.

There’s a free 0.6% just sitting there on Polymarket. The strangest controversy following the 2026 World Cup final 😂 Not the referees. Not an offside call. It was about... a photo. Trump stood alongside the World Cup champions during the trophy ceremony. Millions of people watched it happen live. But later, FIFA and the Spanish Football Federation shared team photos where he was no longer there. Some images were cropped, while others were taken from angles that excluded him. Now the debate isn't whether Trump was standing with the champions. The real question is what exactly counts as the "Champions Photo." To me, the answer is obvious: he appeared in the official trophy ceremony photos with the World Cup winners. That's why I expect this market to resolve YES.

173,352 views • 2 months ago

A 263-year-old formula is still making people millions on Polymarket Back in 1763, Thomas Bayes described how probabilities should change when new information arrives Most traders still don't do that swisstony does He starts with the market price as his prior, measures how much a new event should change the odds, then updates his probability before everyone else The result +$22.3M in profit $1.2M biggest win And multiple positions worth $500K to $1M where he correctly bet against the favorite That's what this strategy is really about Not predicting the future Updating probabilities faster than the crowd

A 263-year-old formula is still making people millions on Polymarket Back in 1763, Thomas Bayes described how probabilities should change when new information arrives Most traders still don't do that swisstony does He starts with the market price as his prior, measures how much a new event should change the odds, then updates his probability before everyone else The result +$22.3M in profit $1.2M biggest win And multiple positions worth $500K to $1M where he correctly bet against the favorite That's what this strategy is really about Not predicting the future Updating probabilities faster than the crowd

14,307 views • 2 months ago

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