Ozzy
@ozzy_livin • 16,411 subscribers
🌊 market cycles #tradfi + #energy + #crypto My Trades 📜 https://t.co/6n8Y7oEsGR
Videos
🥐 fresh crumbs This is a bubble 🫧 ... but this bubble will not end here In the face of record valuations, the Government can essentially provide unlimited liquidity, especially with the centralization of power in the executive branch What I'm saying is ... UP and UP fast! FAT right tail ⛪️ FAT left tail Cem Karsan 🥐 with Full Interview
Ozzy139,646 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
🥐 Cem Karsan 🥐 serves up fresh Crumbs We were pretty adamant coming out of February, if we didn't see weakness, it was risk on for the year As we entered summer, I was very clear it would be a slow grind with dispersion + lack of pullback "Summer of George" As we get to mid-August, summer flows start to change a bit Wednesday, Aug 14th #VIXpiration, there is a short window of 👉potential risk 👈 into September 30th Quarterly OpEX Weakness in this 🪟 would very buyable dip leading into the real end of year rally (true blow off top) ... a market up vol up event Early 2025 🗓️ we'll see a real (2nd move) market decline TopTradersLive.com | Alan Dunne
Ozzy269,082 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs 🔥 People are aware of this decline 🦜🍹 so it's not going to be fast... But it's coming 🔸 This is the 🪟 weakness into March #OPex 🔸 Will be met with QE causing ✍️ a rally into May-Jun 🔸 First FED rate cut ✂️ in Q2 ( June ) 🔸 30-40% decline from ATH into Q4 Cem Karsan 🥐 on Forward Guidance Full interview
Ozzy181,826 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs The Voting Machine 🗳️ is being manipulated by the biggest hedge fund in the world ... The Trump Administration $SPX 🔺 ~13% in 14 days orchestrated through timed announcements, volatility expansion, liquidity injections, and short squeezes This Administration has a clear process: #Vol expansion ➡️ capture shorts ➡️ pivot 180° → April 2025 Tariffs (V bottom) → April 2026 Iran Negotiation Deadline (V bottom) Now the 🔑 is to keep the rally going. An orchestrated daily flow of well-timed information to continue that squeeze This is not a battle with Iran 🇮🇷 ... this is a PROXY war → Venezuela was a proxy war → Iran / Israel is a proxy war → Ukraine / Russia is a proxy war → Eventually, Taiwan will be a proxy war These are deliberate strategies in a great-power competition, with China 🇨🇳 as the primary strategic adversary This is a long-standing conflict that's not about to end This Administration will control market outcomes any way they can Cem Karsan 🥐 on TopTradersLive.com Full interview
Ozzy21,850 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
🥐 fresh crumbs We called the ~10% decline into March #OPex ... at 5400 🍐 we thought we would get a counter-trend rally into May near all-time highs We did get a brief 🤏 5% rally ... but 🔥 unexpectedly crashed to 4830 and bounced right back to 5400 We may rally another 400 pts higher from here (~5800) BUT ⚠️ we believe enough damage has been done that institutions will be ready to sell into this rally ✍️ It's also possible that this was just a deeper cut (21%) and we'll get back "on (a bullish) path" with a positve headline The most important thing right now... the oval office seems particularly motivated to soothe the bond market The long term bond needs 💦 liquidity Japan 🇯🇵 owns 1/3 of our external debt and as tensions rise with China, Japan is the most important ally to work with So, watch Japan headlines closely in the coming weeks 🥐 Cem Karsan 🥐 with Stocktwits Full Interview 👇
Ozzy145,068 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs Here we are $ES 6100 in the Summer of George ☀️ 👸Vanna 🦥 Charm have been supportive ... but Friday #Opex they are gone Next couple weeks, expect market 🔻 down + vol 🔻 down #Vol compression will continue for at least 1-2 months Base case, this decline will be a slow-motion train wreck to yearly lows ( $ES ~4800 ) within the next 6 months Cem Karsan 🥐 with Stocktwits Full interview
Ozzy102,260 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce
🥐 fresh crumbs Something has changed 🫢 We just got a BIG BEAUTIFUL DEAL with China 🇨🇳 🔸 we expected the decline into March #Opex 🔸 we expected the rally to 5700-6000 🔸 the bigger decline will begin in Q3 We still believe this, but a deal like this changes the path 🔀 Follow The Flows 👇 If you have ever wondered how Cem Karsan is able to call pivotal moments (exact dates in some cases) well in advance 👸 Vanna and 🦥 Charm are structural flows embedded in this market Click below to hear the full interview with Ash Bennington Ash Bennington + Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 ▶️
Ozzy88,777 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs We've narrowed our outlook to two paths First path Positive year for equities $SPX reaching ~6600 🔸 Trump provides stimulus ( rate cuts, liquidity ) 🔸 Trump cooperates with China, driving dramatic performance in Chinese equities Second path Choppy Jan - June $SPX cannot hold above ~6100 leading to a 30-40% decline June - Dec 🔸Trump does not stimulate early + the FED keeps rates elevated 🔸Trump does not cooperate with China Cem Karsan 🥐 with @Wordsof_Rizdom Full interview :
Ozzy103,247 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs We are optimistic the current rally will peak at 5650-6000 ⚠️ BUT there are a lot of other factors at play now 🐝💦 We believe that this decline is going to be a process ... akin to the Tech Bubble + Great Financial Crisis A 35% - 45% decline over a year and change ... but more painful than what we saw in those other declines We're talking about a historic decline, in which the Fed is unable to assist, with rising interest rates in a stagflationary environment 1969 - 1970 ✍️ Cem Karsan 🥐 with Full interview 👇
Ozzy89,019 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs We need to hit new meaningful highs if we are going to continue this rally In the absence of a dovish FED 🕊️ FOMC this rally will likely fade $SPX could decline below the Nov gap 5500 - 5200 around March #OPex ... followed by a 10% rally 🔺 after March #OPex to a minor new all time high ~6100 May, June ☀️ look for signs of a reversal (top) Cem Karsan 🥐 with Maggie Lake Full Video
Ozzy100,859 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs with Cem Karsan 🥐 What does a Trump 👔 Presidency look like? 🔸 populism ➡️ protectionism ➡️ inflation 🔸 closing borders means increase in service inflation 🔸 may install a shadow FED chairman ✍️ 🔸 financials may perform well for the next ~4 years 🔸 #Bitcoin to $1 Million by 2034 🫢 Full interview Public
Ozzy105,496 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs with Oliver Renick There are TWO✌️ paths #1 The Fed is dovish 🕊️ 🔸 The market is supported into the Spring, the economy remains strong, and we can get a move up ending in Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 at $ES 6600 #2 The Fed allows a 10% decline into March 🦅 🔸 The economy suffers and we will see 20-40% stairstep decline by Q3 - Q4 leading to a recession Trump 👔 is a bit like Nixon and it seems like he wants to let the economy run hot Full interview Cem Karsan 🥐
Ozzy82,303 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🥐 fresh crumbs Dec 17th - 18th #FOMC caused a quick move down which created a margin call issue into #OPex Dec 20th #OPex risk came off and $ES rallied 🔺 3% What can we expect into the end of the year 🤔 🔸 Monday a lot of hedges come off ⚠️ #instability 🔸 Supportive structured flows 🌊 are fading 🔸 Likely to get more selling There's a re-leveraging effect that should provide 👉some support 👈 into EOY but interest rates + inflation is the new #Narrative As we head into Jan 20th #Inauguration, people may want to be risk off Cem Karsan 🥐 🥐 with Rick Santelli on CNBC
Ozzy83,304 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Division is the oldest power multiplier in the book Flood the board with fear and anger 🔥 🔸 Stabbings & Shootings that make your blood boil 🔸 Fraud by Illegal Immigrants 🔸 Welfare Misuse 🔸 Riots & Burning storefronts MAGNIFY these stories and watch TRIBES form 🟦 The Left screams "racism / fascism!" 🟥 The Right screams "invasion / criminals!" TRIBES then hate one another ... instead of those who actually control the board Cem Karsan 🥐 with Natalie Brunell ⚡️ Full interview
Ozzy24,059 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
🥐 fresh crumbs This is crazy ... This can't keep going !! Historic Liquidity + Bigger 👸🦥Vanna Charm Flows This setup is very bullish into the end of the year You want a Road Map 😏🗺️ Faster. Steep at first, less steep at the end, eventually some kind of pullback Jan #OPex - Feb #OPex As the French say 🍾 "Laissez les bons temps rouler" Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 Alan Dunne Alan Dunne Top Traders Unplugged TopTradersLive.com
Ozzy37,965 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce
🥐 fresh crumbs on Stocktwits Are you surprised number go UP 😏 ... it's a loop, and at some point if the Fed + the Treasury are not pushing enough liquidity, number go DOWN In the short-to-medium term, they will push markets higher, but eventually it will unwind itself Cem Karsan 🥐 with 𝐁𝐞𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐡𝐧 and Emil DeRosa Full Interview
Ozzy36,579 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce