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Patarames

@Pataramesh • 104,854 subscribers

Open source (-only) military technology analyst Iran/Russia/China/DPRK/Israel https://t.co/Q44fKzbdgm Support: Via YouTube-Channel membership

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Patriot PAC-3 couldn't handle it: During the last Iranian strike on an U.S. Airbase in Jordan the 🇺🇸 THAAD batteries in Israel had to help out ➡️ The rare, high-end THAAD may have been used to counter more advanced missiles of the salvo, like Kheybar-Shekan-2 (some hit anyway)

Patriot PAC-3 couldn't handle it: During the last Iranian strike on an U.S. Airbase in Jordan the 🇺🇸 THAAD batteries in Israel had to help out ➡️ The rare, high-end THAAD may have been used to counter more advanced missiles of the salvo, like Kheybar-Shekan-2 (some hit anyway)

98,713 просмотров

Iran got the U.S. to a point where helicopters grounded for maintenance are sitting ducks... needing to be evacuated on trucks Even if they are 1000km away from Iran and protected by layers of air & missile defenses ➡️ Probably many cases of grounded aircraft destroyed inside the many maintenance hangars hit Unable to disperse on their own power

Iran got the U.S. to a point where helicopters grounded for maintenance are sitting ducks... needing to be evacuated on trucks Even if they are 1000km away from Iran and protected by layers of air & missile defenses ➡️ Probably many cases of grounded aircraft destroyed inside the many maintenance hangars hit Unable to disperse on their own power

158,070 просмотров

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

251,983 просмотров

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

128,617 просмотров

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

318,989 просмотров

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

140,054 просмотров

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🟡 Breaking News: Saudi Arabia has started to use their most powerful asset to be able to respond to Yemen: ➡️ Chinese DF-15A they have purchased in the past This is a message to Iran too: The escalation level has reached a point where they are ready to use their joker asset

🟡 Breaking News: Saudi Arabia has started to use their most powerful asset to be able to respond to Yemen: ➡️ Chinese DF-15A they have purchased in the past This is a message to Iran too: The escalation level has reached a point where they are ready to use their joker asset

1,023,803 просмотров • 5 дней назад

🔴 Breaking: Yemen's Ansarallah shoots down a Saudi Arabian F-15! Imagine the arrogance of flying directly over Yemen with fighter jets... ➡️ when even the USAF with all its supporting systems mainly used stand-off munitions Iranian technology ↔️ Yemeni skill

🔴 Breaking: Yemen's Ansarallah shoots down a Saudi Arabian F-15! Imagine the arrogance of flying directly over Yemen with fighter jets... ➡️ when even the USAF with all its supporting systems mainly used stand-off munitions Iranian technology ↔️ Yemeni skill

165,801 просмотров • 3 дней назад

Interesting video: Ghadr-H ( 🇮🇷 Product of 2005) with its standard 28 submunition warhead ➡️ Fools the U.S. Patriot battery to launch ~8 $>4m PAC-3 interceptors A 21 year old ~100k dollar (?) missile wastes $32 million worth of PAC-3... ➡️ A 1 to 320 ratio, probably new record

Interesting video: Ghadr-H ( 🇮🇷 Product of 2005) with its standard 28 submunition warhead ➡️ Fools the U.S. Patriot battery to launch ~8 $>4m PAC-3 interceptors A 21 year old ~100k dollar (?) missile wastes $32 million worth of PAC-3... ➡️ A 1 to 320 ratio, probably new record

242,606 просмотров • 6 дней назад

The largest Patriot PAC-3 salvo launched in history: You can enjoy watching them if you think these are $150.000 Tamir missiles of the 🇮🇱 Iron Dome But once you realize these are all, rare, $4+ million PAC-3, notoriously difficult to produce... ➡️ The half billion dollar salvo

The largest Patriot PAC-3 salvo launched in history: You can enjoy watching them if you think these are $150.000 Tamir missiles of the 🇮🇱 Iron Dome But once you realize these are all, rare, $4+ million PAC-3, notoriously difficult to produce... ➡️ The half billion dollar salvo

335,895 просмотров • 10 дней назад

Its interesting: Iran has a proven capability to land such hits against e.g. the 🇮🇱 Haifa refinery ➡️ Yet the last response 🇮🇱 did to an Iranian strike against military targets, was against a 🇮🇷 Mahshar refinery Counter-value Which successfully deterred Iran to regularly hit 🇮🇱

Its interesting: Iran has a proven capability to land such hits against e.g. the 🇮🇱 Haifa refinery ➡️ Yet the last response 🇮🇱 did to an Iranian strike against military targets, was against a 🇮🇷 Mahshar refinery Counter-value Which successfully deterred Iran to regularly hit 🇮🇱

140,437 просмотров • 10 дней назад

'Nuclear bunker-buster' is a very real option. One of Trumps remaining cards. Maybe his last. ➡️ That and Israel's arsenal is what restricted Iran's respond to remain strictly proportional It's the reason Iran built its firepower around highly hardened tunnel complexes

'Nuclear bunker-buster' is a very real option. One of Trumps remaining cards. Maybe his last. ➡️ That and Israel's arsenal is what restricted Iran's respond to remain strictly proportional It's the reason Iran built its firepower around highly hardened tunnel complexes

266,787 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Last night at a U.S. Airbase in Jordan: 4 Iranian missiles at 1000km+ range ($ 400k-600k) vs. 8 or more U.S. Patriot PAC-3 ($ 32 million) Result ➡️ 4 impacts (flawless victory?)

Last night at a U.S. Airbase in Jordan: 4 Iranian missiles at 1000km+ range ($ 400k-600k) vs. 8 or more U.S. Patriot PAC-3 ($ 32 million) Result ➡️ 4 impacts (flawless victory?)

463,457 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Last time Iranian Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles were used against U.S. Navy ships, by Yemen's Ansarallah, an F-18E/F fell off board. Then Trump quicky ended his campaign against Yemen... ➡️ Iran, as the maker, of those missiles has direct & full quantity access to them But does Iran want to cause a mass casualty event which closes the doors to an agreement? Let's see

Last time Iranian Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles were used against U.S. Navy ships, by Yemen's Ansarallah, an F-18E/F fell off board. Then Trump quicky ended his campaign against Yemen... ➡️ Iran, as the maker, of those missiles has direct & full quantity access to them But does Iran want to cause a mass casualty event which closes the doors to an agreement? Let's see

95,688 просмотров • 14 дней назад

Seems IRGC has restrained itself and 'just' launched Anti-Ship Cruise-Missiles, not Anti-Ship Ballistic-Missiles, as few days ago 1000km+ range, sub-sonic Ghadr-380 were launched last night against the 2 destroyers ➡️ Indicating that the USN has retreated back to safety distance (~600km+ from Iran's coasts)

Seems IRGC has restrained itself and 'just' launched Anti-Ship Cruise-Missiles, not Anti-Ship Ballistic-Missiles, as few days ago 1000km+ range, sub-sonic Ghadr-380 were launched last night against the 2 destroyers ➡️ Indicating that the USN has retreated back to safety distance (~600km+ from Iran's coasts)

36,234 просмотров • 10 дней назад

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

543,043 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

🟡 Unusual: Last night Iran launched a Sejil-2 ballistic-missile ➡️ a 2000-2500km+ range special asset of the IRGC Aerospace Force What was the target? Was it distant, short notice or what was the reason to use the Sejil-2?

🟡 Unusual: Last night Iran launched a Sejil-2 ballistic-missile ➡️ a 2000-2500km+ range special asset of the IRGC Aerospace Force What was the target? Was it distant, short notice or what was the reason to use the Sejil-2?

155,339 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Interesting claim by the IRGC: ➡️ During the last days of the 40-Day War the U.S. started to fly raids towards the Isfahan region as it deemed air defenses there sufficiently degraded Those raids would include F-15E without X-band stealth. If successful, it could preserve precious stand-off munitions, as well as weapons with higher penetration performance, e.g. GBU-72 But the air defenses came out of their ambush posture and hunted one of the raiding F-15E. Resulting in a very costly CSAR operation to rescue the pilots. ➡️ Making it very clear that this approach was infeasible and unsustainable Then during the last day, rare Tomahawk cruise missiles were used to perform deep strikes and end the operation. Would the raids have been successful, Iran's weapon-grade enriched Uranium stockpile in Isfahan could have been within reach

Interesting claim by the IRGC: ➡️ During the last days of the 40-Day War the U.S. started to fly raids towards the Isfahan region as it deemed air defenses there sufficiently degraded Those raids would include F-15E without X-band stealth. If successful, it could preserve precious stand-off munitions, as well as weapons with higher penetration performance, e.g. GBU-72 But the air defenses came out of their ambush posture and hunted one of the raiding F-15E. Resulting in a very costly CSAR operation to rescue the pilots. ➡️ Making it very clear that this approach was infeasible and unsustainable Then during the last day, rare Tomahawk cruise missiles were used to perform deep strikes and end the operation. Would the raids have been successful, Iran's weapon-grade enriched Uranium stockpile in Isfahan could have been within reach

84,822 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Let's say it directly... Trump wants his clean, luxury War against Iran, where: - 2 to 4 interceptors are launched against each 🇮🇷 ballistic missile - Missile defenses protect forces & allied infrastructure - 🇺🇸 Aircraft launch cruise-missiles safely 100km from Iran's borders But Iran effectively depleted stockpiles of such luxury weapons and the resulting new reality is that another high-intensity campaign would become very costly ➡️ Everyone is now used to such luxury wars, going dirty could destroy Trump's legacy It seems clear that he is unwilling to risk his 'legacy'

Let's say it directly... Trump wants his clean, luxury War against Iran, where: - 2 to 4 interceptors are launched against each 🇮🇷 ballistic missile - Missile defenses protect forces & allied infrastructure - 🇺🇸 Aircraft launch cruise-missiles safely 100km from Iran's borders But Iran effectively depleted stockpiles of such luxury weapons and the resulting new reality is that another high-intensity campaign would become very costly ➡️ Everyone is now used to such luxury wars, going dirty could destroy Trump's legacy It seems clear that he is unwilling to risk his 'legacy'

103,032 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

128,617 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

191,686 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

173,277 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

➡️ Iran projects accurate penetrative firepower out to 1000km+ in a target-rich environment ➡️ The U.S. projects limited-range firepower towards Iran's costal regions with a highly depleted target bank, often hitting objects without military value One side is paying the price

➡️ Iran projects accurate penetrative firepower out to 1000km+ in a target-rich environment ➡️ The U.S. projects limited-range firepower towards Iran's costal regions with a highly depleted target bank, often hitting objects without military value One side is paying the price

102,016 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

140,054 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад