Paul Hembekides (Hembo)

@PaulHembo • 44,739 subscribers

@getupespn | @espnpodcasts | @patmcafeeshow New York Times bestselling author

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Paul Hembekides (Hembo)

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Best ERA+ in modern era (min. 100 starts): Clayton Kershaw 154 (hit 1 HR) Pedro Martínez 154 (hit 0 HR) Jacob deGrom 151 (hit 3 HR) Shohei Ohtani 150 (hit 287 HR)

Matt Olson 162-game pace: 148 runs 69 doubles 50 home runs 143 RBI 411 total bases 18 defensive runs saved 10.6 WAR

Trea Turner has minus-27 defensive runs saved as Phillies shortstop (since 2023), 11 runs worse than any SS over that span. With 8/218 left on that contract, he's destined for center field (and will thrive there).

Few hitters in baseball will benefit more from the ABS challenge system than Aaron Judge… Since 2017: Most called strikes below zone Aaron Judge — 368 Josh Bell — 231 Most strikeouts looking below zone Aaron Judge — 42 Nick Castellanos — 30

Chase Burns in 9 career starts: 64 strikeouts 100 batters reached a 2-strike count No starter has ever approached that rate (64%) over a full season. Burns is popping front-line closer stuff for 5+ innings. Dream on it.

Cristopher Sánchez's changeup: only pitch in MLB this season thrown 500+ times (755) with an OPS below .400 (.371) 92 K against 8 XBH (1 HR). Just stupid.

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JJ Wetherholt this season: 8 defensive runs saved, on pace for 24 (Rookie 2B record is 12) 6-6 stolen bases-attempts 12 extra bases taken at 60% clip 121 OPS+ MLB rookie 2B average is 83 His range of value is immense.

Walk rate this season: Giants (5.7%) | MLB avg (9.4%) On a league-adjusted basis (63 BB+), it’s the most walk-averse lineup in 147 years. Really.

Jacob Misiorowski year-over-year: 1st-pitch strike % 58% → 66% OPS by left-handed hitters .731 → .399 4-seamer % in 2-strike counts 50% → 62% His thrower-to-pitcher metamorphosis is just a terrifying development.

At 19 years (and 344 days) old, Konnor Griffin is the youngest player to debut as a starting SS since Alex Rodriguez in 1994 (18-346).

Most HR since 2017 Aaron Judge (378) Kyle Schwarber (335) Matt Olson (301) Most DRS among 1B Albert Pujols (140) Mark Teixeira (93) Matt Olson (90) Slowly but surely, Olson is chiseling out a compelling Hall of Fame case.

Most non-rostered cap dollars this season, via Spotrac (reserves + dead): Browns $170M (5-12 W-L) Jets $170M (3-14) Cardinals $153M (3-14) 49ers $152M (13-5) Raiders $149M (3-14) Saints $139M (6-11) Kyle's having a Hall of Fame season.

Fernando Tatis Jr. % to pull side 2019-25: 41% | 2026: 29% Avg launch angle to pull side 2026 MLB avg: 4.3° 2026 Tatis Jr.: -16.5° He's a mechanical mess from the ground up.

The Brewers have unlocked Kyle Harrison. ✔️Arm angle from 27° to 33° ✔️4-seam usage from 46% to 59% ✔️Kick change grip, adding 4" of drop Pound-for-pound, the best org in ball.

Most HR since 2025 All-Star break: Kyle Schwarber (33) Shohei Ohtani (28) Aaron Judge (27) Junior Caminero (27) COLSON MONTGOMERY (26)

Juan Soto threw this baseball 131 feet in the air.

Gap between lowest &amp; highest cash spender by league (data via Spotrac): NHL: $44M (54%) NFL: $132M (62%) NBA: $88M (66%) MLB: $296M (333%) Baseball already has a de facto cap. What it needs — desperately — is a hard floor.

Most K in first 20 games with Red Sox: Chris Sale -- 200 (2.48 ERA) GARRETT CROCHET -- 160 (2.23 ERA) Pedro Martínez -- 156 (2.72 ERA) Based on his WAR output, FanGraphs estimates he's already produced $34M in value.

The Phillies hired Caleb Cotham as their pitching coach in November 2020… Starting pitcher fWAR since 2021: 1. Phillies (89.1) 2. Dodgers (72.5) 15. Mariners (55.9) The gap from 1 to 2 is the same as 2 to 15. Very, very good at his job.

The Phillies fired Rob Thomson 28 games too late and replaced him with the GM’s father. On the timing of the firing, the specter of Alex Cora, and Don Mattingly’s charge ⬇️

The Phillies know Trea Turner can’t stick at shortstop much longer. They have to. A move to center field would amplify his strengths and clear a path for Aidan Miller.

Gunnar Henderson is slashing .159/.202/.259 on bottom-half-of-the-zone pitches this season. Why? His swing decisions have crumbled ⬇️

CC Sabathia last 3 starts in 2008: 5.2 IP | 1 ER | 105 pitches 7 IP | 1 ER | 108 pitches CG | 0 ER | 122 pitches All on 3 days’ rest. In a walk year. On a team that rented him. He spilled his guts for glory.

Phillies projected outfield: LF: Brandon Marsh (61 career wRC+ vs LHP) CF: Justin Crawford (63% ground ball rate in minors) RF: Adolis García (.278 OBP in 2024-25) I’d love nothing more than to be wrong, but that might be the worst outfield in ball.

Rafael Devers vs breaking balls: 2021-25: +55 run value (t-5th in MLB) 2026: .147 AVG | .176 SLG Devers by home park 2024-25 Fenway: .299/.401/.559 2025-26 Oracle: .228/.324/.443 Not only isn’t he recognizing spin, he’s doing it in a terribly unforgiving environment.

Starts with 0 out-of-zone strike calls 2025 Logan Webb: 1 (in 34 starts) 2026 Logan Webb: 2 (in 3 starts) Webb, like many of baseball’s best nibblers, must confront his new reality in an ABS world.

Gap between lowest & highest cash spender by league (data via Spotrac): NHL: $44M (54%) NFL: $132M (62%) NBA: $88M (66%) MLB: $296M (333%) Baseball already has a de facto cap. What it needs — desperately — is a hard floor.