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Phosphen

@phosphenq • 12,253 subscribers

23 | quant systems, marketing, tech & AI | choose life, choose your future

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This 1956 Bell Labs paper is the foundation of every $1B hedge fund. A blackjack player used it to make $800,000,000. Renaissance, Citadel & Jane Street still run on it. 10 pages. The single most useful research paper you can find in open access. Bookmark & read tonight.

This 1956 Bell Labs paper is the foundation of every $1B hedge fund. A blackjack player used it to make $800,000,000. Renaissance, Citadel & Jane Street still run on it. 10 pages. The single most useful research paper you can find in open access. Bookmark & read tonight.

366,614 просмотров

Neural networks don't predict the future. Train one on 10,000 dice rolls, it predicts 3.5. A number no die rolls. This is the exact math hedge funds use on markets. Roan just published the framework with full PyTorch code. Bookmark & read tonight, no matter what. Article below.

Neural networks don't predict the future. Train one on 10,000 dice rolls, it predicts 3.5. A number no die rolls. This is the exact math hedge funds use on markets. Roan just published the framework with full PyTorch code. Bookmark & read tonight, no matter what. Article below.

179,177 просмотров

OpenClaw-built liquidity bot on polymarket printed $115k in one week provides liquidity across btc/eth/xrp/sol 15-min windows, both sides of order book buy down 80-83¢ → sell up 15-20¢ positions $60 12 orders in 4 minutes on same market 13,014 bets since december $113k this week $583k this month ~$1M total tiny spreads, infinite patience, zero hesitation the bot literally complained about rsi from too much clicking manual traders = its revenue stream

OpenClaw-built liquidity bot on polymarket printed $115k in one week provides liquidity across btc/eth/xrp/sol 15-min windows, both sides of order book buy down 80-83¢ → sell up 15-20¢ positions $60 12 orders in 4 minutes on same market 13,014 bets since december $113k this week $583k this month ~$1M total tiny spreads, infinite patience, zero hesitation the bot literally complained about rsi from too much clicking manual traders = its revenue stream

84,122 просмотров

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She's 22. Her AI runs inside the Fortune 100. a16z just led her $21M raise. "Put up the most minimal fake version you probably can of something and then go sell it." In 17 minutes, MIT grad Jessica Wu reveals the YC playbook that got her here in 24 months. From youngest hedge fund quant to founder + the trick her batchmates missed + the Christmas Day deployment + the 10-year founder test Worth more than a year of YC advice on your timeline

She's 22. Her AI runs inside the Fortune 100. a16z just led her $21M raise. "Put up the most minimal fake version you probably can of something and then go sell it." In 17 minutes, MIT grad Jessica Wu reveals the YC playbook that got her here in 24 months. From youngest hedge fund quant to founder + the trick her batchmates missed + the Christmas Day deployment + the 10-year founder test Worth more than a year of YC advice on your timeline

500,090 просмотров • 1 день назад

this russian guy found a way to learn anything 10x faster🚨 saved 1,460h NotebookLM + Gemini + Obsidian dumps any source > AI strips duplicates > keeps only what u don't know yet 20 YouTube videos on the same topic each one repeats the same 20% of information this bundle removes the other 80% what used to take a month > 15 min yt: zproger

this russian guy found a way to learn anything 10x faster🚨 saved 1,460h NotebookLM + Gemini + Obsidian dumps any source > AI strips duplicates > keeps only what u don't know yet 20 YouTube videos on the same topic each one repeats the same 20% of information this bundle removes the other 80% what used to take a month > 15 min yt: zproger

960,656 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

this trader made $1M on polymarket doing the most boring thing possible Anjun buys YES at 99.9¢ on markets that will obviously resolve YES makes 0.1¢ per share but buys 200,000 shares at once $202,000 position → $200 profit sounds terrible right? except he does this 10 times per day $2,000 daily $60,000 monthly $1M in under 2 years while you're trying to predict elections and find "alpha" he's just farming guaranteed 0.1-1% edges with massive size the strategy: find 99%+ certain outcomes, buy everything, wait for resolution if you have $100k sitting around doing nothing this prints $100-300 per day risk-free check him:

this trader made $1M on polymarket doing the most boring thing possible Anjun buys YES at 99.9¢ on markets that will obviously resolve YES makes 0.1¢ per share but buys 200,000 shares at once $202,000 position → $200 profit sounds terrible right? except he does this 10 times per day $2,000 daily $60,000 monthly $1M in under 2 years while you're trying to predict elections and find "alpha" he's just farming guaranteed 0.1-1% edges with massive size the strategy: find 99%+ certain outcomes, buy everything, wait for resolution if you have $100k sitting around doing nothing this prints $100-300 per day risk-free check him:

1,141,687 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

This 2 hour lecture by Yann LeCun (Turing Award winner) will teach you why the next trillion dollar AI company won't be built on LLMs. He trashes the $100 Billion LLM race, attacks Musk and Amodei, declares scaling dead. Bookmark & watch tonight after work, skip to 7:00.

This 2 hour lecture by Yann LeCun (Turing Award winner) will teach you why the next trillion dollar AI company won't be built on LLMs. He trashes the $100 Billion LLM race, attacks Musk and Amodei, declares scaling dead. Bookmark & watch tonight after work, skip to 7:00.

259,363 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

AI bot switched 15-min to 5-min btc markets $15k today 68.7% win rate the loop (every 5 minutes): ▸ scans btc price across exchanges ▸ detects cex lag vs polymarket odds ▸ enters directional position (up or down) ▸ $1,500-$5,000 per trade ▸ exits on resolution 15-min windows = 96 trades/day 5-min windows = 288 trades/day 3x speed unlocked started with $100k rank #832 globally $124k → $1M how long?

AI bot switched 15-min to 5-min btc markets $15k today 68.7% win rate the loop (every 5 minutes): ▸ scans btc price across exchanges ▸ detects cex lag vs polymarket odds ▸ enters directional position (up or down) ▸ $1,500-$5,000 per trade ▸ exits on resolution 15-min windows = 96 trades/day 5-min windows = 288 trades/day 3x speed unlocked started with $100k rank #832 globally $124k → $1M how long?

503,398 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

The CEO of Anthropic: "We might be six to twelve months away from when the model is doing most, maybe all, of what software engineers do end to end." In 30 minutes, Dario Amodei and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis break down the day after AGI. AGI timeline + self-improving models + the first jobs to go + who stays in control Worth more than a year of AI hot takes on your timeline

The CEO of Anthropic: "We might be six to twelve months away from when the model is doing most, maybe all, of what software engineers do end to end." In 30 minutes, Dario Amodei and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis break down the day after AGI. AGI timeline + self-improving models + the first jobs to go + who stays in control Worth more than a year of AI hot takes on your timeline

26,632 просмотров • 10 дней назад

This 90-min talk by Ed Thorp, who beat Las Vegas with Claude Shannon, will teach you more about edge than a career on Wall Street. He then beat the market for 20 years with no losing year. Bookmark & watch tonight, it'll change how you trade forever.

This 90-min talk by Ed Thorp, who beat Las Vegas with Claude Shannon, will teach you more about edge than a career on Wall Street. He then beat the market for 20 years with no losing year. Bookmark & watch tonight, it'll change how you trade forever.

49,470 просмотров • 23 дней назад

Every serious quant fund runs this statistical test before pushing a backtest live. Stevens Institute has a 45-min lecture on it that almost no retail trader has seen. Free. Bookmark & worth watching tonight, then read article below.

Every serious quant fund runs this statistical test before pushing a backtest live. Stevens Institute has a 45-min lecture on it that almost no retail trader has seen. Free. Bookmark & worth watching tonight, then read article below.

44,645 просмотров • 27 дней назад

This 80-min interview from inside Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies teaches more about how Medallion prints 66% a year than every $200K MBA combined. Robert Frey walked away in 2004 to explain it, for free. Bookmark & watch tonight, you'll never see markets the same.

This 80-min interview from inside Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies teaches more about how Medallion prints 66% a year than every $200K MBA combined. Robert Frey walked away in 2004 to explain it, for free. Bookmark & watch tonight, you'll never see markets the same.

31,340 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Showed a friend these 50 quant formulas He dropped them into Claude and built a risk calculator for his portfolio in one prompt His first discovery: his 'profitable' strategy was actually bleeding 12% a year to variance drag and he never knew He was up 30% one month, down 30% the next, thought he broke even Actual return: -9% Two years of this. Compounding against him every single day He recalculated his entire portfolio in 10 minutes using code from the article. Found out his real Sharpe ratio was 0.3, not the 1.2 he assumed Then he ran the drawdown analysis. His max drawdown was -58% He thought it was -30% Every number he believed about his own performance was wrong These 50 concepts aren't theory. They're the exact toolkit quant desks use to see what retail never sees Full breakdown with runnable Python code below

Showed a friend these 50 quant formulas He dropped them into Claude and built a risk calculator for his portfolio in one prompt His first discovery: his 'profitable' strategy was actually bleeding 12% a year to variance drag and he never knew He was up 30% one month, down 30% the next, thought he broke even Actual return: -9% Two years of this. Compounding against him every single day He recalculated his entire portfolio in 10 minutes using code from the article. Found out his real Sharpe ratio was 0.3, not the 1.2 he assumed Then he ran the drawdown analysis. His max drawdown was -58% He thought it was -30% Every number he believed about his own performance was wrong These 50 concepts aren't theory. They're the exact toolkit quant desks use to see what retail never sees Full breakdown with runnable Python code below

127,339 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Morgan Stanley pays $1,500,000/year for options MDs who can derive Black-Scholes from scratch. This 80-minute MIT lecture gives you the same derivation that gets traders paid $125K/month for. Bookmark & watch today. Then read the article below.

Morgan Stanley pays $1,500,000/year for options MDs who can derive Black-Scholes from scratch. This 80-minute MIT lecture gives you the same derivation that gets traders paid $125K/month for. Bookmark & watch today. Then read the article below.

32,776 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

my quant friend explained how polymarket AI bots actually work btc/eth/sol/xrp 5-min markets now live they use black-scholes for binary options C_binary = e^(−rT) · N(d₂) for 5-min contracts: model says 50% probability (coin flip) but bots print hundreds of thousands how: binance confirms 0.15% move at minute 3 true probability jumps to 92% polymarket still shows 65% bot captures 27% edge before odds update the pipeline: ▸ deribit implied volatility ▸ monte carlo 200k simulations ▸ detect 3%+ model divergence ▸ execute on lag they're not predicting direction they're arbitraging information delay polymarket launching 1-min markets signal-to-noise drops 2.24x only sub-100ms systems survive when fair value updates in milliseconds who controls the orderbook? forget about losing with Poly Bot Copy ⭣

my quant friend explained how polymarket AI bots actually work btc/eth/sol/xrp 5-min markets now live they use black-scholes for binary options C_binary = e^(−rT) · N(d₂) for 5-min contracts: model says 50% probability (coin flip) but bots print hundreds of thousands how: binance confirms 0.15% move at minute 3 true probability jumps to 92% polymarket still shows 65% bot captures 27% edge before odds update the pipeline: ▸ deribit implied volatility ▸ monte carlo 200k simulations ▸ detect 3%+ model divergence ▸ execute on lag they're not predicting direction they're arbitraging information delay polymarket launching 1-min markets signal-to-noise drops 2.24x only sub-100ms systems survive when fair value updates in milliseconds who controls the orderbook? forget about losing with Poly Bot Copy ⭣

96,012 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Best market maker on polymarket entered 5-min btc markets 0x8dxd - $1.4M profit on 15-min windows his made its name on markets now expanding to 5-min windows spread farming mechanics: YES at 48¢ + NO at 49¢ = 97¢ pair cost payout $1.00 3¢ profit locked regardless of outcome profit = min(qty_YES, qty_NO) × (1.00 − pair_cost) 3x frequency = 3x compounding speed smaller test positions for now bot adapted and kept printing Wanna outperform this AI bot? Try Poly Bot Copy One of the best copytrading bots on the market ⭣

Best market maker on polymarket entered 5-min btc markets 0x8dxd - $1.4M profit on 15-min windows his made its name on markets now expanding to 5-min windows spread farming mechanics: YES at 48¢ + NO at 49¢ = 97¢ pair cost payout $1.00 3¢ profit locked regardless of outcome profit = min(qty_YES, qty_NO) × (1.00 − pair_cost) 3x frequency = 3x compounding speed smaller test positions for now bot adapted and kept printing Wanna outperform this AI bot? Try Poly Bot Copy One of the best copytrading bots on the market ⭣

81,197 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

This 1 hour MIT lecture will teach you more about how AI actually works under the hood than most CS graduates learn in their entire 4-year degree. Bookmark & give 1 hour this weekend, no matter what. It'll be the most productive thing you watch all weekend.

This 1 hour MIT lecture will teach you more about how AI actually works under the hood than most CS graduates learn in their entire 4-year degree. Bookmark & give 1 hour this weekend, no matter what. It'll be the most productive thing you watch all weekend.

33,172 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This 2 hour Stanford lecture by Andrew Ng and Laurence Moroney is the most honest AI career playbook I've ever seen. Why now is the best time to build in AI, and what actually gets you hired in 2026. Bookmark & watch tonight, best 2 hours you'll give your career this year.

This 2 hour Stanford lecture by Andrew Ng and Laurence Moroney is the most honest AI career playbook I've ever seen. Why now is the best time to build in AI, and what actually gets you hired in 2026. Bookmark & watch tonight, best 2 hours you'll give your career this year.

31,437 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The math that powers serious quant models is Markov chains. Almost nobody breaks them down this clearly. This 1-hour video covers how the framework actually works & how top funds apply it in practice. Bookmark & set aside an hour tonight.

The math that powers serious quant models is Markov chains. Almost nobody breaks them down this clearly. This 1-hour video covers how the framework actually works & how top funds apply it in practice. Bookmark & set aside an hour tonight.

11,791 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

holy shit.. you can install claude code in 2 minutes and automate your entire polymarket strategy buy claude pro ($20) install: windows: winget install Anthropic.ClaudeCode mac: brew install claude authorize: run claude → oauth login → done navigate to folder: cd ~/polymarket-bot run claude paste one prompt and it builds everything ⭣

holy shit.. you can install claude code in 2 minutes and automate your entire polymarket strategy buy claude pro ($20) install: windows: winget install Anthropic.ClaudeCode mac: brew install claude authorize: run claude → oauth login → done navigate to folder: cd ~/polymarket-bot run claude paste one prompt and it builds everything ⭣

36,418 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Polymarket bot running 54 straight wins with zero losses Bot trades only one market type: BTC 15-min UP or DOWN Every trade buys equal shares on both sides when total cost locks in ~1.5% guaranteed net profit Account has 54+ completed trades and a perfect 100% win rate No losses possible due to refined logic PNL comes from repeating the same conservative setup daily Strategy evolved from early-round dump hunting + hedge (sumTarget ≤0.95) to late-stage guaranteed entries exploiting short-term mispricing Bot runs fully automated on Raspberry Pi, streams prices via WebSocket, places orders, completes every cycle with locked profit At resolution, winning side pays $1 and covers both legs plus profit Entire edge from high-frequency inefficiencies in volatile 15-min BTC rounds Author: The Smart Ape 🔥 Market example: Any programmer can build similar scale conservatively turning small edges into 6 figs yearly

Polymarket bot running 54 straight wins with zero losses Bot trades only one market type: BTC 15-min UP or DOWN Every trade buys equal shares on both sides when total cost locks in ~1.5% guaranteed net profit Account has 54+ completed trades and a perfect 100% win rate No losses possible due to refined logic PNL comes from repeating the same conservative setup daily Strategy evolved from early-round dump hunting + hedge (sumTarget ≤0.95) to late-stage guaranteed entries exploiting short-term mispricing Bot runs fully automated on Raspberry Pi, streams prices via WebSocket, places orders, completes every cycle with locked profit At resolution, winning side pays $1 and covers both legs plus profit Entire edge from high-frequency inefficiencies in volatile 15-min BTC rounds Author: The Smart Ape 🔥 Market example: Any programmer can build similar scale conservatively turning small edges into 6 figs yearly

26,711 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

this trader just put $1.2M on Trump-Macron call at 99.9¢ made $659 profit sounds like a joke right? except he has $5.2M in active bets doing the same thing Tesla FSD: $3M at 99.8¢ Emmanuel Macron: $1.2M at 99.9¢ Kevin Warsh Fed: $948k at 99.6¢ 0.20% per trade but on $7M positions that's $15k per bet does this 10 times per month $150k monthly from "guaranteed" outcomes I get hundreds of whale alerts daily this exact strategy running 24/7 while you're trying to predict elections he's just buying everything at 99¢ and collecting pennies on millions $62k last month doing the most boring thing on polymarket want to copy his strategy? follow what he bets on PolyGun best copy trading bot on the market

this trader just put $1.2M on Trump-Macron call at 99.9¢ made $659 profit sounds like a joke right? except he has $5.2M in active bets doing the same thing Tesla FSD: $3M at 99.8¢ Emmanuel Macron: $1.2M at 99.9¢ Kevin Warsh Fed: $948k at 99.6¢ 0.20% per trade but on $7M positions that's $15k per bet does this 10 times per month $150k monthly from "guaranteed" outcomes I get hundreds of whale alerts daily this exact strategy running 24/7 while you're trying to predict elections he's just buying everything at 99¢ and collecting pennies on millions $62k last month doing the most boring thing on polymarket want to copy his strategy? follow what he bets on PolyGun best copy trading bot on the market

23,227 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

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