After her first eyewall replacement attempt resulted in a... merger that pushed her to a 165 MPH, 913 mbar peak, Super Typhoon Bavi is finally in the throes of a true EWRC. The thick and persistent nature of her inner core is still protecting a stellar Stadium Effect in the eye, but her infrared satellite signature shows a textbook EWRC structure developing, with a pronounced moat thawing out between the colder, dueling eyewalls. Confidence for a direct or near-direct landfall over the tiny island of Rota continues to increase today; however, Guam should keep a very close eye out for any consistent southward jogs in Bavi’s motion. Even a small deviation could expose the 165,000 residents there to high-end Category 4 or 5 winds.show more

🇲🇵 LANDFALL: Category 5 Super Typhoon Bavi has made... landfall over the Pacific Ocean island of Rota with extreme winds of 180 MPH and a core pressure near 900 MBAR, becoming the strongest storm to strike the United States or its territories since the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, and the most intense by pressure since Hurricane Camille (1969).show more

UPDATE: With only a few hours left before landfall... in Luzon, colossal Typhoon Fung-wong (UwanPH) has hit a new peak intensity. Her sustained winds are now at 130 MPH (210 kph), and the sea-level pressure in her giant eye has fallen to 943 mbar, making her a CATEGORY 4 storm. This will be the strongest Typhoon to hit the Philippines since Man-yi (Pepito) in November of last year, and is coming just 5 days after Kalmaegi (Tino) ravaged Cebu Island.show more

Sunrise over a sea monster of the Atlantic deep.... The Hurricane Hunters have found that the core pressure in Hurricane Erin’s misty eye has deepened to 933 MBAR, marking a 12 mbar drop over the last 3 hours. Her winds continue to whirl at 130 MPH. Intensification is underway.show more

The eye of Fung-wong (UwanPH) is really starting to... melt through the icy shell of her CDO now. New, towering thunderstorms are rising up within the inner eyewall as well. On microwave imagery, the Typhoon’s cumbersome core structure is still yet to fully solidify. What we could see in the coming hours, especially after the Pacific sun evanesces below the horizon, is for this new burst of core thunderstorms to freeze the eyewall into a more complete and circular ring around the eye. That would likely jumpstart a true phase of rapid intensification right as Fung-wong enters her final approach to Luzon in the Philippines.show more

Hurricane Erin isn’t satisfied with her initial peak intensity.... She is now back to CATEGORY 4 status as a sub-zero, slushy flood of convection inundates her brand new eyewall. Unlike yesterday, Erin is no longer a dense, tightly spinning system. The EWRC has enlarged her wind field significantly, and her eye diameter likewise has increased. She is well on her way to becoming an open Atlantic leviathan ~700 miles to the east of Florida’s coast.show more

UPDATE: Cyclone Fina has unexpectedly re-intensified to a 120... MPH (195 kph) Category 3 after initially being forecast to only be a Tropical Storm at landfall in the Drysdale River National Park area of Australia. Fina is also trending further south as this ice blender of extremely cold convection swirls around her 958 mbar eye, meaning that landfall could potentially take place closer to the Ord River Nature Reserve.show more

Bad news in the South China Sea. Typhoon Kalmaegi... (TinoPH) is back to Category 2 strength ahead of schedule and looks to be developing a tight inner core that’s fully ensconced in ice-cold convection. This brings to the table the possibility of a Category 3-4 landfall in Vietnam, IF these trends continue. Something that could halt Kalmaegi’s re-strengthening bid is the fact that he’s about to track over more marginal sea surface temperatures, though they are still likely warm enough to support a major Typhoon.show more

Super Typhoon Ragasa (NandoPH) has left the Babuyan Islands... of the Philippines in darkness. Now, after finally weakening just below Category 5 intensity, this monstrous storm’s convection is suddenly re-freezing around his still-perfect, ~925 MBAR stadium eye over the South China Sea. With favorable conditions ahead, Ragasa could weaken very gradually and remain a major Typhoon by the time he makes landfall in southern China. However, the track will be important. The further south Ragasa trends, the more strength he’ll lose due to land interaction.show more

BREAKING: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa’s sustained winds are now... roaring at 175 MPH, and the air pressure in her searing eye has sunk to 906 MBAR. The storm is starting to take the northern turn towards Jamaica, and if she intensifies any further, she will begin to approach the mathematical limits of how strong a storm can become in this part of the world.show more

BREAKING: Milton is a Category 5 hurricane with winds... up to 160 mph. That is a 70 mph uptick in barely 13 hours – nearly quadrupling the rate of strengthening needed for "rapid intensification." The storm is just offshore of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Wilma-like pinhole eye.show more

Cyclone Narelle has entered the Gulf of Carpentaria after... the Queensland leg of her near-continent-wide, coastal tour of Australia. Once she makes her second landfall in the Northern Territory, Narelle will embark on a week-long circumnavigation of Western Australia, which may end with a direct impact to the city of Perth at the end of the month. What a crazy cyclone track this is going to end up being.show more

What an intimidating sight Fung-wong (UwanPH) has become over... the Philippine Sea as her winds creep up to 65 mph (100 kph). The sprawling size of this budding West Pacific beast is creating an interesting dichotomy. On the one hand, it’s causing Fung-wong to take longer to organize and thus delaying a potential round of rapid intensification (limiting how strong she can get before striking Luzon). But, on the other hand, her larger radius will affect more people in the Philippines and possibly generate a greater storm surge risk near the location of landfall. Even in this latter scenario, which seems to be increasingly more likely, Fung-wong could still explode to a high-end Category 4 Typhoon. Either way, it’s a serious situation we have developing here tonight.show more

What we’re seeing right now could be historic. If... Hurricane Humberto is upgraded to a CATEGORY 5, it would mark two consecutive years with multiple Cat 5s in the Atlantic. That hasn’t happened since the Great Depression. Every satellite frame is more intense than the last. The 145 MPH eyewall is only getting more deeply submerged in a whirling ice bath of convection.show more

JUST IN: An Extreme Wind Warning has been issued... for the Pacific island of Rota as the 180 MPH (285 kph) eyewall of Category 5 Super Typhoon Bavi closes in. The NWS is warning that venturing outside can result in DEATH from flying projectiles. Unreinforced structures will be destroyed, power poles will be snapped or toppled, and island-wide vegetation may be obliterated. If you are on Rota, take cover NOW in a reinforced interior room away from windows. Use mattresses, blankets, or pillows to cover your head and body.show more

Check out CATEGORY 4 Hurricane #Erin with a pin... hole eye and stout donut eye wall visible on Puerto Rico radar. The stronger Hurricane continues to push west with the help of beta drift. A northward shift just prior to the USA is still expected, but we need to watch this like a hawk in NC OBX.show more

The previously unnamed Tropical Storm in the shallow Malacca... Strait has since been given the name Senyar. The system made landfall over the city of Langsa in Aceh, Indonesia at a 50 mph (80 kph), 996 mbar peak intensity. But Senyar isn’t done. The storm has now RE-EMERGED into the Malacca Strait and is forecast to soon make a second landfall, this one in Malaysia. While Senyar won’t be very strong (potentially only ~40 mph), a Malaysian landfall by a bonafide tropical cyclone is historically rare, as few storms on record have formed this close to the equator (due to the weakness of the Coriolis Effect here).show more

Almost all Major Hurricanes undergo an eyewall replacement cycle.... Melissa never did. She sustained CATEGORY 5 status for 35 consecutive hours, the 8TH longest total duration of Cat 5 winds ever documented in an Atlantic Hurricane, and the longest since Hurricane Irma in 2017. Instead of initiating replacement cycles, Melissa underwent eyewall mergers, which caused only short-lived pauses in her intensification and allowed her to incrementally climb to an extreme strength as she slowly writhed towards Jamaica. It is exceptionally rare to see a high-level Hurricane eye remain so perfectly circular and clear for so many days on end.show more

Hurricane Erin has been driven into a ferocious feeding... frenzy by the heat energy of the SW Atlantic. Rarely do you see a storm outside of the West Pacific undergo such extreme RI as this. In 24 hours, her winds have more than DOUBLED, from 70 mph to 145 MPH, and her core pressure has plunged from 998 mbar to 935 MBAR. This is an exceptionally rapid rate of deepening for an open Atlantic Hurricane. Erin’s pressure continues to plummet by 6-8 mbar per hour based on Hurricane Hunter recon data, and she is now knocking on the door of Category 5 status.show more

Honestly, Smacking her thighs while standing betwixt her legs... then grabbing her by both arms and trying to make direct eye contact with an expression on your face like you’re seeing her for the first time or realizing that you’re in love with her or both in the middle of a crowded airport when you know cameras are on you but you’re high off love so you’re in you own world with her and then suddenly remembering you’re around other people and snapping out of it is actually insane 🫩😮‍💨😝 #lingorm #code41 #ormling #9Bsshow more