🚨🇷🇺🇺🇦 For Russia, the situation on the front is... becoming critically difficult, signaling a potential Ukrainian breakthrough in the near future that could completely collapse Russia's defensive fortifications in the south. Rybar, one of the most authoritative military bloggers close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, is shouting about this hysterically: The situation in the southern regions of Russia is taking on an increasingly alarming character. Since the beginning of May, Ukrainian formations have significantly increased the number of drone strikes on transport vehicles delivering various goods to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as Crimea. The threat of a shortage of certain goods has emerged on the peninsula, and fuel is being sold with restrictions. The threat concerns not only the disruption of the holiday season in Crimea or shortages of individual products. Strikes on cargo carriers on the peninsula directly impact the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern fronts, where the situation is already unstable. 🔻 What is happening on the front? ➡️ In the Kamenske direction, the enemy has been active for a long time and managed to advance in several sectors, forcing Russian forces to retreat: Stepnohirsk has been lost, and Plavni is nearly lost, along with practically all territorial gains achieved by the Russian Armed Forces during the offensive that began in early 2025. ➡️ There is a risk that the enemy will not only restore the status quo but will transition to an offensive themselves on the Kamenske-Shcherbaky line. Indirect signs indicate that attention has already been paid to the problems in this sector, but the situation remains difficult. ➡️ The activity of Ukrainian drone operators has significantly increased regarding strikes on Kamianka-Dniprovska, Vodiane, and Enerhodar. Local channels publish reports every 20–30 minutes about drone attacks on the city, the number of which reaches dozens. There are casualties and injuries among the civilian population. Among the targets are also employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which was officially confirmed by the station's resources. ➡️ This could indicate preparation by the enemy for, if not a full-scale landing, at least a diversionary attack through the reed beds located on the bottom of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. Allowing the loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is unacceptable — dislodging even small groups from there will be extremely difficult. Furthermore, the Russian Armed Forces will be significantly restricted in strike assets, as the Zaporizhzhia NPP is not a facility that is advisable to bomb with aviation. ❗️ Given that Ukrainian formations have already partially paralyzed Russia's logistics in the land corridor toward Crimea, it is not difficult to imagine what will happen if the Armed Forces of Ukraine break through Russia's defenses on the Kamenske-Shcherbaky line. 📌 The Russian Armed Forces will have to redeploy additional forces to the Vasylivka direction, the routes to which are already frequently targeted by enemy strikes. In the worst-case scenario, stabilizing the situation will require transferring additional forces to the Tokmak direction, and further to Berdiansk and Mariupol. It is on these roads that the delivery of civilian cargo is already seriously disrupted. ❓ What can be done? The issue of organizing "small sky" air defense is already understood and studied, and it has been mentioned at the highest level. The skyrocketing increase in strikes after the May holidays is clearly visible, though the roads were not safe before that either. It was in early May that the Armed Forces of Ukraine began testing Hornet-type systems, and already after the ceasefire, they started mass usage, leaving no opportunity for a pause to devise tactics. Video is made Grok AIshow more
