๐ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?๐ YOU THINK I'M JOKING?... THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now hereโs the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Menโs Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: โBUT THE PREFERREDS!โ Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming โDILUTIONโ into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholderโs Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to todayโs actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not โvibes.โ It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says โbook value.โ ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:show more
