Tropical moisture will flow into a stalling front this... week. While the exact placement of the greatest rain should be taken with a grain of salt, this model speaks well to the excellent setup for heavy storms.show more

Tropical moisture + slow front = scattered to numerous... heavy rain and storms. Localized flooding is a negative, but this setup is a definite positive from a drought standpoint.show more

A big pattern change is coming to Florida this... week. The week starts off with typical rain chances, however, a plume of deep tropical moisture will impact the state late in the week into next weekend, bringing a threat of heavy flooding rains. #flwxshow more

We will see typical storms over the next few... days in Florida. However, a plume of deep tropical moisture associated with #Dolly will bring a heavy rain threat to Florida late week -- regardless of redevelopment. #flwxshow more

A surge of tropical moisture associated with the Central... American Gyre will being higher rain chances to Florida later this week and into the weekend. The good news is tropical development is not expected at this time in the Gulf at this time. #flwxshow more

Here is a model projection of how a weather... system will interact with deep moisture from Hurricanes (Polo and Odalys) to potentially bring widespread heavy rain to much of the Desert Southwest early next week. This will lead to a heightened risk for flash flooding. #azwxshow more

A parade of storms, including an atmospheric river, will... march into the Northwest from the Pacific with drenching rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds into next week.show more

Top weather story this week will be the "drenching"... from tropical moisture feeds. Hurrican Polo remnants + Caribbean/Gulf moisture will combine into an "atmospheric stream" delivering heavy precipitation to normally arid geography. Don't float away! 🌧show more

A firehose of Caribbean moisture is forecast to impact... Florida late this week into next week, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 - 5" are expected, with isolated totals over a foot are possible over the next ten days. #flwxshow more

UPDATE: A tropical wave will be heading towards Florida... by Friday and potentially towards the coastal Carolinas this weekend. It will help to enhance the development of scattered storms and bump up rain chances during that time frame. Shown below are not rainfall totals, but atmospheric moisture levels. Normally Florida is around 1.8" this time of the year and you'll notice the tropical wave brings us up to around 2.1"...helping to bring in more storms. #Floridashow more

Watch as a strong Bermuda high and persistent southerly... fetch funnels a plume of tropical moisture north into the Gulf. The main event will start this weekend and persistent into next week. The details are fuzzy, but you can bet some folks along the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida will get 10” of rain over the next two weeks. Pinpointing exactly where though is still unclear, but all will see #drought relief! Stay tuned! #florida #rain #tropicalshow more

UPDATE: A LOT of tropical moisture on the way... across Florida the next 5-10 days. For example, those moisture levels will be 50%-75% above average, which will aid in developing numerous rounds of storms across the state. Values shown are PWATS or precipitable water levels. Around 1.6" is typical this time of the year for Florida, which you'll notice we'll be above the next 7-10 days. Some online chatter about tropical development. Not impossible, but current odds are low. Physics-based models show the potential, AI models largely don't. Rainmaker regardless if it tries to form into a weak tropical/subtropical system or not. We need the rain!show more

Rian chances go up on Sunday. Scattered rain &... storms will be on and off through the day... Not 100% coverage all day. There will be dry hours. Rain chances climb more late Sunday through Monday morning as a cold front comes in. Heavy rain & gusty winds with some of the storms.show more

⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas... to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.show more

The tropics are a very moist, humid place. As... Tropical #CycloneGabrielle tracks out of the tropics, it will bring all of that moisture (🟣) with it! NZ's complex terrain can further enhance rainfall amounts. This is why there is a concern for over a month's worth of rain.show more

TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest GRAF model for the... area pinned with a 20% chance of tropical development. The model historically is more aggressive / stronger than others, but does highlight the development of a low in the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of development, it will help to bump up rain chances for Florida the next several days.show more

An upper level low is forecast to develop near... Cuba this weekend. The lurking low is expected to bring a surge of tropical moisture and higher rain chances to Florida through early next week.#flwxshow more

Florida here’s comes another surge of moisture! A deep... dip in the jet stream will extract more #Gulf moisture, meaning more downpours especially in the northern half of the state. Sunday should be the stormiest day. This is on top of a very rainy stretch! #florida #storm #rain #floodshow more

⚠️ WEATHER ALERT: Highly unusual conditions today. A stationary... rain band will develop due to a rare atmospheric “stalling” effect in the jet stream. This means: 🌧️ Rain may fall continuously over the exact same spots for hours 🧍‍♂️ Moving just a few metres could take you from dry conditions into heavy showers Stay tuned ☔️🌧️☔️show more

Flip the rainy season switch! A sight for sore... eyes, as FL has endured the worst drought in decades. After a brief dry break Friday, the models consistently show a rapid surge in moisture and a rapid start to wet season, as a long southeast fetch of wind forces tropical moisture from the tropics across the state leading daily downpours starting as early as this weekend/ early next week with East coast morning showers, West coast late day downpours. And consistently humid days. #rain #storms #floridashow more