Two differing views of tonight’s ongoing long-duration #SolarFlare, which... sat for nearly 4 hours above M-class levels. It appears that an initial filament eruption triggered a much larger event! #spaceweather (data: AIA/SUVI/LASCO)show more

The volatility - yes, volatility - in AR 4366... is absolutely unbelievable. I don't think I have ever used the word 'volatility' to describe an active region. The X-ray flux has been mostly above the M-class threshold for *35 hours* now. There have been 25+ M-class and 4 X-class flares. It is unfortunate that most of these flares are impulsive, else we'd have a train of CMEs en route and likely impacting by now. Even so, the show is incredible, one of the highlights of Solar Cycle 25 - we will be talking about this for a long time!show more

BOOMSHAKALAKA Another successful long-range #spaceweather forecast completed ✅ On... July 30th a 1.9 m-class solar flare exploded from AR4492 with an unusually Earth-directed coronal mass ejection and triggered a S1 radiation storm in < 2 hours (which we are still in), the first S1 radiation storm since May 26th, one day before I issued my long-range #swx forecast (synchronicity) for this timeframe of end of July/Early August based on precisely geometric heliocentric planetary geometry. There is also strong evidence this was jointly triggered by a sundiving comet to that sector of the Sun under the influence of a Jupiter Cazimi. Considering how the planets and comets how a notable influence over solar activity, the choice is to investigate into the phenomenon further or be left behind as science advances. No other "official" agency or outside commentator that I know of provided any guidance or was so precise.show more

Here is a 3D visualization of the coming solar... storm using model parameters from NASA's run, NOAA's run (shown below), and the coronagraph views from STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO. The storm is expected to hit Earth early December 9. The 3D visualization clearly shows the low inclination orientation of the solar slinky core inside the larger storm envelope. Of course, the earlier eruption that erupted to the northeast, might deflect this structure a little bit, but likely that will only make the structure move more towards the ecliptic plane, which will give us a larger chance of crossing through the solar slinky core. One nice thing about low inclination flux rope cores is that they almost ALWAYS have southward field in them at some point. So this is good news for aurora photographers-- as long as this solar storm stays true to its launch trajectory and inclination, we could see some organized southward pointed magnetic field. Considering this solar storm is fast-- that usually indicates the storm will not deviate much from its original launch trajectory! Here is the link to a static frame of the 3D frame visualization so you can fly around it yourself:show more

Kīlauea Eruption Update — Episode 51 of Kīlauea summit... lava fountaining began at 8:30 a.m. HST today, July 15, and is ongoing. This is the 51st lava fountaining episode in the eruption that began in Kīlauea summit caldera in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park on December 23, 2024. The lava fountain from the north vent is reaching an estimated 100 feet high above the vent. According to the National Weather Service, low-level trade winds below the inversion level (about 8,000-10,000 feet above sea level) will move the lower part of the plume to the southwest and result in tephrafall in that direction (towards the District of Kaʻū). Above the inversion layer, south winds are forecast, which could push parts of the plume to the north and result in ash and Pele’s hair falling in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and communities adjacent to it. Fountaining episodes typically last 12 hours or less, but ash can remain in the air for longer depending on wind and weather conditions. Please stay aware of hazards and rely on official updates from USGS, National Weather Service, and Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. 🎥 Video of episode 51 on July 15, 2026. #Kilauea #Eruption #Lavashow more

🌋Kīlauea eruption episode 47 summary Episode 47 of the... Kīlauea summit eruption in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park stopped at 12:27 am HST May 15 after 9 hours of lava fountaining. 🌋 Lava flowed from the south vent about 75 times in the 12 hours before episode 47, but only the north vent produced a lava fountain (up to 650 ft/200 m) during the episode. The south vent continued to overflow for a couple of hours, diminishing over time to spattering and then only flames. An estimated 6.2 million cubic yards (5.2 million cubic meters) of lava spilled across Halemaʻumaʻu, covering nearly half of the crater floor with new lava. 💨 The eruptive plume rose to about 20,000 ft (6,000 m) above sea level; weak winds as the episode peaked allowed the plume to rise vertically, causing tephra to fall around Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera). Most tephra fell within the closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, but sparse reticulite up to 3 inches (5 centimeters) in size fell at both the Uēkahuna and Keanakākoʻi overlooks. Fine ash and Peleʻs hair fell in communities to the northeast. ⛔️ The USGS kept the Kīlauea alert level/aviation color code at WATCH/ORANGE throughout the episode because fallout was not extensive and did not last very long. After the episode ended, USGS lowered Kīlauea to ADVISORY/YELLOW reflecting that volcanic activity had decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase. Kīlauea summit region inflation since the end of episode 47 indicates that another fountaining episode is possible; however, more time is needed to collect data to generate the model to forecast episode 48. 📹 Video clips show Kīlauea episode 47 lava fountaining on May 14, 2026. #Kilauea #Lava #Eruptionshow more

🚨LATEST: $ASTER CLOSES IN ON $HYPE FOR PERP DEX... TOP SPOT According to data from DefiLlama.com, perpetuals DEX Aster 🥷 saw an impressive $3.075 billion in volume over the past 24-hours. While Hyperliquid saw some $3.772 billion in volume, it looks at surface level as if the gap between them appears to be narrowing, Hyperliquid historically much more active than Aster. Could it be that CZ 🔶 BNB's open support of the protocol is triggering a resurgence? Here's what you need to know about what could one day be crypto's leading perp DEX ⬇️show more

LongWriter Unleashing 10,000+ Word Generation from Long Context LLMs... discuss: Current long context large language models (LLMs) can process inputs up to 100,000 tokens, yet struggle to generate outputs exceeding even a modest length of 2,000 words. Through controlled experiments, we find that the model's effective generation length is inherently bounded by the sample it has seen during supervised fine-tuning (SFT). In other words, their output limitation is due to the scarcity of long-output examples in existing SFT datasets. To address this, we introduce AgentWrite, an agent-based pipeline that decomposes ultra-long generation tasks into subtasks, enabling off-the-shelf LLMs to generate coherent outputs exceeding 20,000 words. Leveraging AgentWrite, we construct LongWriter-6k, a dataset containing 6,000 SFT data with output lengths ranging from 2k to 32k words. By incorporating this dataset into model training, we successfully scale the output length of existing models to over 10,000 words while maintaining output quality. We also develop LongBench-Write, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating ultra-long generation capabilities. Our 9B parameter model, further improved through DPO, achieves state-of-the-art performance on this benchmark, surpassing even much larger proprietary models. In general, our work demonstrates that existing long context LLM already possesses the potential for a larger output window--all you need is data with extended output during model alignment to unlock this capability.show more

I decided to establish a comms constellation around Kerbin... using three equally spaced relay satellites in geostationary orbits. It was a single launch mission. I circularized at 2,863,334 meters above Kerbin, which places the orbital period at 6 hours - the same duration as a Kerbin day. This gives the appearance that the satellite hovers over one spot on the planet. I launched the first relay there, then burned retrograde to reduce the periapsis until my instruments reported a 4 hour orbital period - 2/3s of a Kerbin day. Once I got back around to apogee, I launched the second relay and circularized, then did it once more for the final relay.show more

🚨🌋 #Urgent A Massive eruption at Ambae Volcano, Vanuatu,... reported today, 25 August, at around 09:40 local time. This volcanic eruption is significant climatically from various many aspect and should be marked down. Initial reports indicate an exceptionally large eruption, with the volcanic plume reportedly exceeding 15.5 km in altitude. The Wellington VAAC has been monitoring renewed ash emissions from Ambae, although the precise height of today’s event is still subject to verification. This event lines up remarkably well with the solar–geomagnetic uptick between 24-30 August, that I have forecast several weeks ago. A plume reaching the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere could potentially have implications for the atmospheric circulation during the forthcoming autumn and winter, depending on the amount and composition of material injected and how long the eruption persists. Importante : 🚨My preliminary statistical analogue models are already pointing toward a potentially strongly volcanic-forced winter signal for the December–March 2027 period. I’ll be posting a detailed analysis of the potential atmospheric and climatic impacts soon. Volcanic forced winters are associated with warmer conditions over central and north-central Europe in general with much monthly variability. According to local reports, monitoring is also underway for a possible tsunami in tje region of the ruptured volcano . More details to follow on volcanic imprints clr next winter via separate posts as observations and official assessments become available.show more

We've now had two 2.5 x-flares from sunspot 4419... over the last 12 hours, both launching gigantic coronal mass ejections outwards pretty much in the direction of Comet C/2025 R3 PANSTARRS. Surprisingly we're not in a radiation storm yet, and plasma headed to Earth from these events seems to be minimal, but sunspot 4420 is nearly Earth-direct now and 4423 following just behind just blasted off a 1.7 m-flare. As Comet R3 PANSTARRS continues to fly across Earth-facing while cutting through the ecliptic plane just outside the orbit of Mercury, my forecast is that we're most likely to enhanced activity from 4420 and 4423 as well over the next 2-3 days. Keep in mind the comet will begin experiencing #spaceweather from the CMEs very soon, and that will energize it electromagnetically even further, perhaps pronouncing this Comet-Sun effect we're seeing even further...show more

🚨 $IREN CEO DROPPED A HINT Last year That... 1.4 GW WILL BE WITH one of the MAG 7 👇 “Two hours ago we got an email from a TRILLION-DOLLAR HYPERSCALER… They are now INTERESTED IN OUR SWEETWATER DATA CENTER.” Let that sink in. 👀 1. SWEETWATER = 1.4 GW Energization in 3–4 months. At the moment , ZERO other data centers in the U.S. bring this much raw power online this fast. 2. CHILDRESS = Another 300–450 MW - Horizon 4-5, Still available. Still unannounced. Expect CRAZY NEWS in the weeks ahead. If a trillion-dollar hyperscaler plugs into Sweetwater, $IREN becomes a top-tier U.S. AI-compute player Soon. Now I wonder Who’s the trillion-dollar hyperscaler? 🤔 $GOOG $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $META $ORCL $NVDA $AMD All of them NEED multi-hundred-MW blocks right now. Only $IREN can deliver 1.4 GW on a single energization event. $cifr $wulf $nuai $nbisshow more

If I'm searching for a flight on Google, I... now have to scroll through two pages of ads, airlines and AI responses before I find Google Flights—which is actually superior than Skyscanner or anything else I've tried. In Google Flights, results are nearly instantaneous, you can apply filters without reloading, and there's virtually no advertising clutter. It has a price calendar, a price history graph, price-tracking alerts, and a "Best flights" ranking that weighs cost against duration and layovers instead of simply sorting by price. Why is Google burying its own superior product? Because of the EU's Digital Markets Act, of course. And now the EU is hitting Google with another billion-euro fine because it still isn't demoting its own services enough. Is there a rational justification for this beyond European hostility toward American Big Tech—an industry in which Europe has fallen hopelessly behind?show more

two sigma runs $68 billion using math that's been... free in public textbooks since 1948 retail traders lose 80% of the time studying the wrong thing entirely it's not price action. it's not RSI. it's not fibonacci levels or moving average crossovers it's something called the Hurst exponent - a single number that tells you whether the market has memory and if it has memory, you have an edge. period the math is this: H above 0.5 means today's move predicts tomorrow's, even slightly trending markets score 0.65-0.80. random markets score exactly 0.50. mean-reverting markets drop to 0.20-0.45 i ran the test on SPY last tuesday. H = 0.61 that 0.11 above random doesn't sound like much. kelly criterion says size 9% of capital into it every trade over 400 trades that gap between "slightly above random" and "random" is the difference between broke and retired citadel doesn't interview traders. they hand physics PhDs a whiteboard and say "derive the hurst exponent" the whole test is 11 lines of python. the data is on yahoo finance, free, updated daily claude shannon published the underlying framework in 1948. it's in chapter 4 of every information theory textbook on the planet they kept you drawing trendlines while they ran exponent tests on the same price data bookmark this before the algo buries it the information was always free. that was never the problemshow more

Brainrotting teens watching short form memes so much to... the point that parts of the fragments of other memes become even more short form and get colluded in other memes to the point that it really doesnt make sense. However. Brain loves pattern recognition of these patterns and nonsensical randomly shown fragments of memes, because it is not long form reward, nor short form reward — but instantaneous; it is the only form of pleasure it can feel So brain tries to look for these patterns unconsciously, it sees patterns and similar resemblance in random things and adds a symbolical emotional labeling of truth to it. So everything becomes a piece of information and data. It gets stored in their subconscious brain and fires up everytime there is a resemblance. Extremely dangerous if weaponised but no one sees the patterns yet. However because of these pattern behaviours teens are split into two categories, the brainrots which God knows how it will end with them — consumers and slaves that later on might have no free will and be driven by pure chemical instinct. And those who see for truth in patterns. The latter is able to overcome modern day censoring and freedom of speech mechanisms, and possibly overcome the evil trying to control the world with pure silliness and having fun. (67 is part of a random pattern that someone said during a match score, and it became viral, nothing more but a collective participation to which youth finds identity by being and acting in it; “performing”) Its beauty lies not in the act but in those individuals that look beyond the chemical instincts of the lower mind. Example of the video below. It shows many fragmental elements of history, symbolism, that is collaged into art. Which by being seen individually or collectively it shows the expression on how man uses its own soul for these kind of co-creations he choses to participate in creation. Symbolism that can leave a person ask for its meaning and search for it, only by questioning himself not by a direct answer (short or long form). Of course which extreme beauty there is also extreme ugliness which are out there which I wont show here Lets see how it really turns out to be honest, West has no protection toward the subjective, the feminine, the subconscious. To which the inner sins of man try to exploit.show more

It's 2030 and you are reviewing humanoid robots. A... Tesla. A Google. An Apple. An OpenAI. A Meta. A Figure. And a bunch of Chinese-made ones. Which one is best, and why? I think the Tesla understands the world much better. Why? There were eight Teslas around me on the freeway today. Start there. No other robot company has that data. But my robot is parked at the local high school twice a day. Its cameras see humans in all of our weirdness. How we move. Where we go. Where we walk. Who we talk with. What you are wearing. Whether your hair was combed this morning. That data will lead to robotics breakthroughs. Apple might keep up with its Vision Pro data, but it is too freaked out by the privacy implications of using said data. (On the front are six cameras and a couple of TOF -- Time Of Flight -- sensors that can see everything in your home in great detail). Google has a lot of data, for sure. All my: 1. Email. 2. Calendars. 3. Photos. 4. TV watching behavior. 5. Contacts. 6. Documents and spreadsheets. 7. Files. 8. Location data. So I expect Google's robot will be attractive to many. But how do you see the others shake out over the next five years? Make some guesses. But remember what an AI pioneer told me years ago about AI: it's all about the data. The Chinese ones have huge advantages: the Chinese have more data on their citizens, and many more citizens to boot AND they can make robots cheaper than we can. But now that you know OpenAI is building its own robot you have caught wind of what I've heard from many in San Francisco and Silicon Valley: that humanoid robots are the real prize of AI and will be highly profitable for those that can make them and find customers willing to buy them. Here, too, I learned long ago never to bet against Elon Musk. Will you?show more

‡ Yet Another Dubious Stewards Decision There is a... long-standing complaint relating to stewards decisions that is shared by virtually all horseplayers: they should be more consistent in their decision making. Such complaints are legitimate, and consistency should always be a goal, not only in the officiating of horse racing. But it seems to me that the problem illustrated by the DQ in Del Mar's 11th race on Saturday is, in some ways, even more frustrating. I am referring to what seems to be a far too common inability of stewards to watch replays carefully, and thoughtfully process what has been seen. While I credit Del Mar for having edited together all three views of the incident in the embedded clip, it would have been better if they had (also) slowed down the drone view, which, as is so often the case, appears to be the definitive view. I have extracted the salient drone view portion and zoomed in on the action, so that readers might more easily see the crucial incident that the stewards apparently failed to take into account. The dubious decision to DQ the winner (#3 red and white silks) was made on the basis that nearing the wire, it drifted out, and caused the eventual fourth-place finisher (#5 pink silks) to steady, possibly costing that one a better placing. But I would argue that a careful, and reasonably thoughtful viewing of the drone shot, clearly shows something different. Just before the incident referred to by the stewards, the #5 horse (pink silks) and #9 (yellow silks) made contact, and it was that contact which initially caused the former to steady. The winner did subsequently drift out, but that was incidental, and did not, at least on its own, cost the #5 a placing. In fact, that the two even came so close was arguably a direct result of the #5 briefly losing its hind-end as a result of the bumping with the #9 horse. Had it not been for that initial contact, causing the #5 to angle in towards the eventual winner, there almost certainly would not have been any meaningful loss of momentum. Parsing it even more finely, it appears, again from the drone shot, that the #9 was not at fault, and it was, ironically, the "victim" in the questionable eyes of the stewards (#5), which angled in and lost its hind-end as a result of that earlier contact. Given that the rider of #5 had understandably steadied more sharply after the initial, far more dangerous incident, the most important momentum loss had already occurred before the rider again steadied slightly, due to the winner drifting out. In summary, there were clearly two incidents which contributed to a loss of momentum on the part of the #5 horse. Equally clearly, it was the initial incident, not even mentioned by the stewards, that caused the greater loss of momentum. In my view, the incident that the stewards used to rationalize the DQ was trivial, relatively speaking, and given the broader context, there should not have been any change in the order of finish.show more

Introducing my new OSS framework: OhSnap provides really simple... way to record and reproduce the data your users saw when encountering an issue (bug/crash), integration in your project should take a few minutes at most. Majority of bugs are related to data you have to deal with and often times we have to work with frequently changing data via network API's. Even if you have access to multiple environments (prod/staging/dev) it's still going to be PITA to reproduce a lot of bugs your user saw, since we often get to them a long time after the bug occured... OhSnap allows you to easily record any data your app downloads, pack it and put it on server so that you can replay it on your device later on, while connected to debugger and save hours of development time trying to figure out what exactly they experienced! Here's a demo of 2 app instances running, and me manipulating what server reply I'll be getting, there is 1 line of code needed to record and reply this data (outside of just setting up your framework). I built this so that I can show dev tool building process for the members of which I encourage you to join if you want to put your engineering efficiency at a different level😉show more

HOLEE SHIZZLES‼️ 🚨 The Fulton County Georgia FBI Raid... Affidavit CONFIRMS Election Records in Fulton County's 2020 Vote Count was MANIPULATED 1. Only 16 tabulators out of an expected much larger number were used to generate closing data for about 315,000 ballots across 138 provided poll tapes. This extreme concentration improperly funneled through a small set of machines, breaking chain-of-custody rules and making it easier to alter election results 2. Review of machine logs indicated that memory cards were likely removed from their original tabulators and inserted into different ones to produce or recreate closing poll tapes. This indictated tampering or fabrication of records to cover up discrepancies, as it allows data to be manipulated OUTSIDE the standard process. 3. Many closing poll tapes—essential documents that verify end-of-day vote totals from each polling site—were entirely MISSING from the records provided. Without these, there's no way to confirm that votes weren't added, removed, or changed post-election. FRAUD. 4. It was discovered that the Tabulator's data appeared to cover ballots from several different polling sites, which shouldn't happen under normal procedures. This suggests intentional mixing of data streams, which leads to DUPLICATE votes, misplaced ballots, or hidden errors across precincts. 5. Tabulators showed mismatched or anomalous timestamps in their logs, such as dates and times that didn't align with actual election events. This could indicate backdating, editing, or unauthorized access AFTER polls closed, further hinting at possible manipulation to make records appear consistent. 6. Auditors assisting in the Risk Limiting Audit reported counting purported absentee ballots that had never been creased or folded, as would be required for the ballot to be mailed to the voter and for the ballot to be returned in the sealed envelope requiring the voter’s signature for authentication. Affidavitshow more