#opex

🥐 fresh crumbs 🔥 People are aware of this decline 🦜🍹 so it's not going to be fast... But it's coming 🔸 This is the 🪟 weakness into March #OPex 🔸 Will be met with QE causing ✍️ a rally into May-Jun 🔸 First FED rate cut ✂️ in Q2 ( June ) 🔸 30-40% decline from ATH into Q4 Cem Karsan 🥐 on Forward Guidance Full interview
Ozzy181,847 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs We called the ~10% decline into March #OPex ... at 5400 🍐 we thought we would get a counter-trend rally into May near all-time highs We did get a brief 🤏 5% rally ... but 🔥 unexpectedly crashed to 4830 and bounced right back to 5400 We may rally another 400 pts higher from here (~5800) BUT ⚠️ we believe enough damage has been done that institutions will be ready to sell into this rally ✍️ It's also possible that this was just a deeper cut (21%) and we'll get back "on (a bullish) path" with a positve headline The most important thing right now... the oval office seems particularly motivated to soothe the bond market The long term bond needs 💦 liquidity Japan 🇯🇵 owns 1/3 of our external debt and as tensions rise with China, Japan is the most important ally to work with So, watch Japan headlines closely in the coming weeks 🥐 Cem Karsan 🥐 with Stocktwits Full Interview 👇
Ozzy145,068 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs Here we are $ES 6100 in the Summer of George ☀️ 👸Vanna 🦥 Charm have been supportive ... but Friday #Opex they are gone Next couple weeks, expect market 🔻 down + vol 🔻 down #Vol compression will continue for at least 1-2 months Base case, this decline will be a slow-motion train wreck to yearly lows ( $ES ~4800 ) within the next 6 months Cem Karsan 🥐 with Stocktwits Full interview
Ozzy102,266 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs Something has changed 🫢 We just got a BIG BEAUTIFUL DEAL with China 🇨🇳 🔸 we expected the decline into March #Opex 🔸 we expected the rally to 5700-6000 🔸 the bigger decline will begin in Q3 We still believe this, but a deal like this changes the path 🔀 Follow The Flows 👇 If you have ever wondered how Cem Karsan is able to call pivotal moments (exact dates in some cases) well in advance 👸 Vanna and 🦥 Charm are structural flows embedded in this market Click below to hear the full interview with Ash Bennington Ash Bennington + Cem Karsan Cem Karsan 🥐 ▶️
Ozzy88,811 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs We need to hit new meaningful highs if we are going to continue this rally In the absence of a dovish FED 🕊️ FOMC this rally will likely fade $SPX could decline below the Nov gap 5500 - 5200 around March #OPex ... followed by a 10% rally 🔺 after March #OPex to a minor new all time high ~6100 May, June ☀️ look for signs of a reversal (top) Cem Karsan 🥐 with Maggie Lake Full Video
Ozzy100,859 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs Dec 17th - 18th #FOMC caused a quick move down which created a margin call issue into #OPex Dec 20th #OPex risk came off and $ES rallied 🔺 3% What can we expect into the end of the year 🤔 🔸 Monday a lot of hedges come off ⚠️ #instability 🔸 Supportive structured flows 🌊 are fading 🔸 Likely to get more selling There's a re-leveraging effect that should provide 👉some support 👈 into EOY but interest rates + inflation is the new #Narrative As we head into Jan 20th #Inauguration, people may want to be risk off Cem Karsan 🥐 🥐 with Rick Santelli on CNBC
Ozzy83,304 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs with OJ 🧃 #OPex week Dips are #BUYING opportunities 👸🦥 + positive Jan 1st flows will continue to grind $SPX higher through the low volume holidays #Dispersion is back and we may see a running of the MEMES🎲 We can expect to see a shift in market leadership, a #rotation where some high-performing stocks $NVDA would potentially lose ground #PumpersInChief 👔 Trump & Elon 🚀 means narratives will drive this market 😉 #Dogecoin Go find the #narratives! Oliver Renick with Cem Karsan 🥐
Ozzy83,174 просмотров • 1 год назад

🥐 fresh crumbs By this time next month ... " I have a feeling markets are going to take this to a very interesting decision point " If we're not down 🔻 7%+ post Sep 19th #OPex odds diminish that a substantial decline will continue ... and the possibility of a blow off top into January becomes more likely Cem Karsan 🥐 🥐 with the hilarious 𝐁𝐞𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐡𝐧 Full interview Stocktwits
Ozzy36,049 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

🥐 fresh crumbs The #vol supply that lead to the 👸🦥 support that pushed markets higher is now going away #Gamma is in short supply & the market is slowly becoming unpinned Upcoming Event Volatility: 🔸 May 13th #CPI data 🔸 May 16th #Opex 🔸 June 30th #QuarterlyOpex ... Quarterly Opex are always dangerous ⚠️ Cem Karsan 🥐
Ozzy44,458 просмотров • 1 год назад