2. Delivery & Logistics UPS and FedEx kept growing right through 2008. Hell, FedEx even increased profitability. Turns out goods still need to move whether Wall Street's having a party or a panic attack. The industry projects 4.3% growth regardless of what the economy does.

1. Discount & Thrift Stores People don't stop buying during recessions - they just buy cheaper. Discount retail was one of the only sectors that "crushed it" during 2008. In 2009, small thrift stores averaged 31% sales growth. While big retailers were laying everyone off, these little shops were printing money.

The longer something has been successful, the more likely it is to continue being successful. Here are 12 businesses with historically low failure rates (backed by data):

3. Cleaning Services This one's my favorite because it's so obvious once you see it. There’s a reason why commercial disinfection exploded in 2020. OSHA mandates cleaning - that's government-backed demand. No one wants to spend weeks explaining dirty offices to regulators.

4. Pet Care $150 billion. That’s how much was spent on pets in 2024. AND historically, pet purchases actually go UP during recessions. People need emotional support, and apparently animals deliver better returns than therapy. Plus, rich people don't mess around when it comes to their pets.

5. Home Repair & Maintenance Pipes burst. Heaters fail. Toilets overflow. You think anyone cares about inflation when their ceiling's leaking? During 2008-2009, construction slowed way down, but plumbers and electricians stayed busy as hell.

6. Grocery & Food Retail Dollar General was up almost 10% during the recession. Kroger grew every single quarter. When people stop blowing $18 on DoorDash salads, they start cooking at home. Boring? Maybe. Profitable when the economy goes to sh*t? Absolutely.

7. Auto Repair New car sales dropped 40% from 2007-2009. But AutoZone's same-store sales were up 5%. "Fix it instead of replace it" is the phrase on everyone’s lips during recessions. Everyone suddenly wants to keep their 10-year-old Honda running.

8. Home Improvement & Hardware Home improvement spending is up 30% since 2015. If you can't afford to move or hire contractors, DIY becomes a fun weekend plan. The average home is 39 years old, which means stuff's always breaking. There’s even a whole market of people who buy tools at garage sales and throw them on eBay for massive markups… check it out:

9. Healthcare Services CVS was up 14.6% during 2008 - nearly $90 billion during the recession. While unemployment hit 10%, healthcare was adding jobs. Recession stress increases mental health demand, and chronic care never takes a break. People skip vacations, not prescriptions.

10. Accounting & Tax Services H&R Block's tax segment grew 8.5% in the first half of 2009. Why? Because tax deadlines don't care if there’s a recession. There’s a reason people say there are only two constants in life: Death and Taxes.

11. Childcare Services This industry grows 6% annually no matter what. When times get tough, both parents work to keep the lights on. You can pause Netflix, but you can't pause watching the kids. Working parents always make money for this like the necessity it is.

12. Beauty & Personal Care You can chalk this one up to the "Lipstick Theory". When people can't afford big luxuries, they still want small ones. Even during COVID lockdowns, one salon owner told me she still saw 2-3 clients daily. People always want to feel good about themselves, the economy be damned.

So what do these 12 businesses have in common? They solve ESSENTIAL problems, not nice-to-haves. Plus, there’s ample room for: - Residential to commercial progression - Subscription models - Tech integration That’s every business-buy's wish-list.

difficult to trust any of your other content if you’re putting out something so misleading as this

No. Logistics industry is literally in a recession right now, has been since late 2022.

Honey from those of us in Logistics, you might want to sit this one out, because you have no clue

$UPS and $FDX were in a nice duopoly position until $AMZN showed up. Have you checked out their recent performance?

Meanwhile everyone in freight be like

I like her posts, but she doesn't seem to understand the post covid whipsaw recession that has claimed countless operators.

I wish you didn’t put logistics in it… shows absolutely zero idea you know about this industry… Might want to listen to earnings calls for $FDX and $UPS 🤦‍♂️

Love the thread on recession-proof biz—totally agree on buying vs. starting! But slightly disagree on delivery/logistics (trucking/parcel) being one of the smartest recession-proof businesses to buy. There are a lot of other logistic type companies that I would buy before buying a trucking company with assest. Unless you have the experience in the industry and know what you are getting into. It is not for the faint of heart as 2020 proved when the market was flooded with thousands and thousands of new carriers and new brokerages being started. It was a feeding frenzy for about 2 years and then we started to see the mass exit of carriers as rates normalized and shippers went back to their trusted consultants and brokers because all of these new trucking companies bought their used equipment at all-time highs with high interest rates that left these businesses (mostly companies that had 1-3 trucks) having to shutdown. We even saw it with companies who had been around for 20, 50, 75 years... FMCSA data shows net carrier losses in 2023 (-24k) & 2024 (-14k), with 26/36 months negative since 2022 amid the freight recession. Exits hit thousands in Q4 '24 alone. Over 88k carriers shut down in 2023, including Yellow's bankruptcy. FedEx and UPS grew through 2008 partly as they dominated the parcel market (80% share post-DHL exit). But since then, competition has surged with dozens of new players like Amazon Logistics (now #1 in volume), Walmart, OnTrac, and gig carriers eroding their share. They've also hiked rates/surcharges more often post-2008; in 2025 alone, ~6-9 changes across FSC, dimensional changes, LPG, weight, zones, peak-season, new invoice fees, etc., including a 5.9% GRI and 5-9% peak surcharge bumps. Big players endure, but smaller ones? High variables—need deep ops expertise! For acquisitions, focus on consulting, SaaS, AI/tech for supply chain insights factoring capacity, consumer confidence, demand, seasonality. Thoughts? BTW, I love your book! I have sent it to so many people! I saw you at Aspire Tour in ATL back in Jan—I have known Eddie Wilson & Andrew Cordle for 17 yrs; Andrew was my HS camp counselor! LOL @Codie_Sanchez

So logistics is recession proof lol… ok then 🙄

This is idiotic, anyone who takes this seriously deserves to fail

Bless your heart. A quick glance at current publicly traded logistics stocks would have helped you not say this. When people don't buy nothing ships.

Recession proof? Logistics? Maybe you should speak to the 500 thousand motor carriers that have gone out of business since Jan 1 2021.. Plz stick to what you know.. It's evident it's not Logistics

This is wrong. The sector was expanding because online sales was just starting to blossom back then. Now, it's all established, so you won't see that growth again. Take it from someone who works in the industry right now, things are starting to slow down massively.

@grok is this true or is it misrepresenting the facts in any way?

@Grok, what about UPS now? How is it going?

Logistics is not recession proof. It goes to shit before a recession. Lmfao

-GFC was December 2007-June 2009 -FedEx FY 2008 ended 5/31/2008 -FedEx FY 2009 ended 5/31/2009 no FedEx did not grow ‘right through‘ CY 2008, let alone all through the crash

This is moronic. People still need to EAT during a recession but they cut back on other things that are not necessities. When Amazon entered the market it was to disrupt UPS & FedEx, that has been wildly effective but overall freight has been in the shi*ter for quite some time.

I’m sorry… have you looked at ER’s for the past three years!? This is laughable.

This is egregious misinformation. FDX/UPS have a ton of fixed assets + their cost structure is largely fixed. Also very maintenance capex heavy businesses. Therefore a 1% decline in revenues is magnified on the pretax line. Go look at what EBIT or FCF did in ‘08. Wrecked.

Did ChatGPT 5 tell you delivery and logistics is recession proof? This is so out of touch!

this is one of the most incomprehensible takes I’ve seen in a little while…. for reasons that are somewhat endless

Are you mark sanchez sister ? iCE on you