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A $100 Billion hardware boom is unfolding right now And a $3,000 quadruped bot dumping live suppressed rounds without flinching is the ultimate payday signal for spatial AI builders. In this range test, a custom tactical quadruped fired rapid bursts from a top-mounted rifle. The moment gun recoil hit...

13,600 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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When I sold my software company in 2010 and became an angel investor, one word could smother a pitch on the spot: “Hardware”. A hardware component made you close to unfundable. The VCs called you a hybrid company, and it wasn't a compliment. The refrain was: “Hardware is hard, hardware is slow, hardware eats cash and stretches timelines. We want pure software”. That was the era. It took two shocks to break the spell. First, COVID broke supply chains, and soon everyone in Washington was doing the math on where things actually get made. For example, the US hasn’t produced tungsten domestically since 2015 . (Aside: this is changing, cc Taylor Sulik ⛏️ ) Rare earth magnets: almost all bought from countries that may or may not be on our side. The ability to make critical materials at home was a national capability that we’d spent decades letting rot. That lit a fire under a lot of folks. Then AI showed up and knocked the legs out from under pure software entirely. The nightmare scenario for a lot of SaaS companies is now the next model dropping and a customer rebuilding your product in-house. So the same VCs who said "we don't want any hardware in this" are now asking founders where the hardware is. Which brings me to moats. A moat has always been a rebuild-time question: how long would it take a well-funded competitor to rebuild what you have? Software used to buy you years. AI is shrinking that number toward months, and a moat measured in months is more like a wooden fence. The physical world doesn't compress that way, since time is baked into its advantages. A factory takes three to five years to stand up regardless of how smart your tools get. Then permits, construction, supply chains, testing data… Another part is that AI trains on the written-down world, and high-moat physical knowledge lives largely offline… public AI models have not yet ingested it, and no prompt can reproduce the underlying empirical record. Anyway, hardware is still damn hard. And that's exactly the point.

Adam Rossi

11,855 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

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